The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Friday, June 17, 2011

AL East Interleague Strength of Schedule: June 17-July 3, 2011

Out of curiosity, I did an estimate of the strength of Boston, Tampa Bay and the Yankees interleague schedule over the next two weeks.  Here are the schedules with an estimate of the opponent’s winning percentage.  This is based 40% on 2011 Pythagenpat and 60% on pre-season projections adjusted for roster changes, with home field advantage included.

Date Yankees Opp w% Red Sox Opp w% Rays Opp w%
6/17/2011 @Cubs 0.48 vs Brewers 0.53 vs Marlins 0.46
6/18/2011 @Cubs 0.48 vs Brewers 0.53 vs Marlins 0.46
6/19/2011 @Cubs 0.48 vs Brewers 0.53 vs Marlins 0.46
6/20/2011 @Reds 0.55 vs Padres 0.46 @Brewers 0.57
6/21/2011 @Reds 0.55 vs Padres 0.46 @Brewers 0.57
6/22/2011 @Reds 0.55 vs Padres 0.46 @Brewers 0.57
6/24/2011 vs Rockies 0.49 @Pirates 0.48 @Astros 0.43
6/25/2011 vs Rockies 0.49 @Pirates 0.48 @Astros 0.43
6/26/2011 vs Rockies 0.49 @Pirates 0.48 @Astros 0.43
6/28/2011 vs Brewers 0.53 @Phillies 0.57 vs Reds 0.51
6/29/2011 vs Brewers 0.53 @Phillies 0.57 vs Reds 0.51
6/30/2011 vs Brewers 0.53 @Phillies 0.57 vs Reds 0.51
7/1/2011 @Mets 0.52 @Astros 0.43 vs Cardinals 0.53
7/2/2011 @Mets 0.52 @Astros 0.43 vs Cardinals 0.53
7/3/2011 @Mets 0.52 @Astros 0.43 vs Cardinals 0.53
7.68 7.39 7.50

xW: Expected wins using log5.

Not much of a difference, although it’s somewhat irritating that both Boston and the Rays get to play the Astros while the Yankees don’t.  Then again, I suppose playing the Cubs is close enough.

I’m not sure if I’ve ever mentioned how I feel about interleague play.  Rather than go through a lengthy screed about why, I’ll just present the following.

Team W L W%
LAA 51 24 .680
BOS 49 26 .653
DET 49 26 .653
CHW 45 30 .600
MIN 45 30 .600
TEX 45 30 .600
NYY 43 32 .573
SEA 41 34 .547
KC 40 35 .533
TB 40 35 .533
BAL 37 38 .493
OAK 33 42 .440
TOR 33 42 .440
CLE 28 47 .373
Total 579 471 .551

That’s the record of every AL team vs. the National League since 2007.  Now obviously the bulk of that is due to how good or bad each team is/was, but there’s also a pretty fair discrepancy between the strength of the various teams’ interleague schedules in any given season.

So a series of glorified exhibition games has a significant impact on the postseason race every year.

Anyway, I’ll just hope the Yankees don’t lose any pitchers in the act of doing something they are not qualified to do.  At the very least maybe with enough pitchers bunting Joe Girardi will not need to further fuel his addiction to bunting with actual hitters.

--Posted at 10:44 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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Joe Girardi will not need to further fuel his addiction to bunting with actual hitters

So Posada, Swisher, and Eduarmiro will continue to bunt?

I would love to figure out a way to look not just at interleague play’s influence on the playoff races but the entire unbalanced schedule’s effect.

Without looking at the numbers, I would have said the Rays had the toughest interleague schedule.  But I guess that one series against Houston evens it out a bit, while Florida without Josh Johnson also helps.  The Yankees don’t face a last place team (at the moment), although the Cubs are close.  The Rays and Boston each get two series vs. a bottom dweller.

Not much of a difference, although it’s somewhat irritating that both Boston and the Rays get to play the Astros while the Yankees don’t. 

And while Pittsburgh has been surprisingly better this season, I have no doubt they’ll get swept.

I would be shocked if Boston loses a single interleague game.

Never will I forget the freak injury to Wang rounding third base.  It was all down for him after that.

Jeter is on DL retroactive to what date exactly? When do we see him again in the lineup?

Heathcott not in lineup much lately. Is he injured or just sucking?

Is JC Romero worth a look?

TWN currently on schedule to miss both Halladay and Hamels, although CH will be rested for the 3rd game, if Philly chooses to skip ahead.  At least they’ll face Lee.

[5] 6/13, He didn’t even want to go on the DL so I assume as soon as the 15 days is up, Injured (but also sucking), As much as any recently DFA’d LHRP.

“At the very least maybe with enough pitchers bunting Joe Girardi will not need to further fuel his addiction to bunting with actual hitters.” I don’t think you understand how addiction works.

We’ll be lucky if not everyone is bunting by Sunday.

I would like to see more of a balanced schedule with Yanks visiting each AL team twice. The interleague allows us to see our team play in all stadiums which I kind of like, but now that it has been done why not pare it back a bit.  Not in favor of Bowden’s plan for realignment. 
This is the way the divisions should be:
NL East     NL Central   West   AL East AL Central AL West
Mets       Cubs       Dodgers Yankees Twins     A’s
Braves       Cards       Giants   Red Sox White Sox   Angels
Phillies     Nationals   Padres   Detroit Brewers     Mariners
Tampa Bay     Pirates     Rockies Toronto Indians     Rangers
Florida     Reds       Astros   Orioles Royals     D’Backs

This looked better when Nats were Expos but the point is there should be equal # of teams per division.

My columns got messed up- sorry

contract/expand by 2 teams, 2 divisions per league.

Joel’s chart cleaned up:

realignment.jpg

Makes sense if they’re going to go with 15 in each league.

If they are going to do a realignment I would do a geographical realignment.  Then you have to deal with the DH issue.

TWN currently on schedule to miss both Halladay and Hamels, although CH will be rested for the 3rd game, if Philly chooses to skip ahead.  At least they’ll face Lee.

Teams only change their rotation to make the match-up better when they’re facing the Yankees.

[14] I agree with geographic.  Actually works fairly well with NBA/NHL.  DH should either be eliminated, or be part of MLB rules for both conferences.  I prefer the latter, of course.

15 teams in each league means you’d have interleague play all year.  Otherwise, one team from each league would have to rest for a series every month and a half with uneven teams in each league.

[16] - Yeah but fans are very entrenched in their positions in that argument so I don’t think it is a small detail.  And of course there are the unions and owners.  The union isn’t going to want to give up 14 starting position players so DH in all of baseball is really the only way it’s realistic.

But geographical realignment is in a lot of ways and economic realignment.  It would go a long way in giving smaller market teams a better chance.

15 teams in each league means you’d have interleague play all year.

I’m not against that, if we can’t add or subtract 2 teams.  There are what, 90 series (270 games) now?  Should be very doable to have interleague every night.  It wouldn’t add any games, and then at least we’d stop making interleague so much of a circus.

[18] Oh, none of it is a small detail.  And I doubt highly that they could get rid of the DH, but if the owners are set on it (and it’s the only holdup) it’s doable.  I’m sure the union has something else it would trade for no DH.  Yeah, I think it helps the sport in SO many ways.  Which is why it will never happen.

Imagine a division race being decided on the last day in an interleague game.

Your “partner” in interleague is the Mets. Ours is the Phillies, or maybe the Braves. If you can’t make that work, well…?

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