Friday, June 17, 2011
AL East Interleague Strength of Schedule: June 17-July 3, 2011
Out of curiosity, I did an estimate of the strength of Boston, Tampa Bay and the Yankees interleague schedule over the next two weeks. Here are the schedules with an estimate of the opponent’s winning percentage. This is based 40% on 2011 Pythagenpat and 60% on pre-season projections adjusted for roster changes, with home field advantage included.
|Date||Yankees||Opp w%||Red Sox||Opp w%||Rays||Opp w%|
|6/17/2011||@Cubs||0.48||vs Brewers||0.53||vs Marlins||0.46|
|6/18/2011||@Cubs||0.48||vs Brewers||0.53||vs Marlins||0.46|
|6/19/2011||@Cubs||0.48||vs Brewers||0.53||vs Marlins||0.46|
|6/28/2011||vs Brewers||0.53||@Phillies||0.57||vs Reds||0.51|
|6/29/2011||vs Brewers||0.53||@Phillies||0.57||vs Reds||0.51|
|6/30/2011||vs Brewers||0.53||@Phillies||0.57||vs Reds||0.51|
xW: Expected wins using log5.
Not much of a difference, although it’s somewhat irritating that both Boston and the Rays get to play the Astros while the Yankees don’t. Then again, I suppose playing the Cubs is close enough.
I’m not sure if I’ve ever mentioned how I feel about interleague play. Rather than go through a lengthy screed about why, I’ll just present the following.
That’s the record of every AL team vs. the National League since 2007. Now obviously the bulk of that is due to how good or bad each team is/was, but there’s also a pretty fair discrepancy between the strength of the various teams’ interleague schedules in any given season.
So a series of glorified exhibition games has a significant impact on the postseason race every year.
Anyway, I’ll just hope the Yankees don’t lose any pitchers in the act of doing something they are not qualified to do. At the very least maybe with enough pitchers bunting Joe Girardi will not need to further fuel his addiction to bunting with actual hitters.
Previous entry: Father's Day Yankee Trivia Contest