Tuesday, August 31, 2010
A Tale of Two Long Relief Outings
Given what we’ve seen out of Javier Vazquez so far in 2010, the last thing any of us should be getting excited about are two decent relief outings. Well, maybe that or Derek Jeter coming up in the ninth inning with the tying run on first base and one out.
That doesn’t mean it might not be interesting to look at some of the data from those outings and see if it shows us anything.
August 25 vs. Toronto
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes | % |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 89.9 | 91.3 | -6.1 | 11.6 | 28 | 18 | 64.3% |
| CU (Curveball) | 71.8 | 75.7 | 8.0 | -2.3 | 11 | 8 | 72.7% |
| SL (Slider) | 84.6 | 86.1 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 10 | 7 | 70.0% |
| CH (Changeup) | 78.7 | 81.0 | -8.5 | 7.7 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
August 30 vs. Oakland
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes | % |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 89.4 | 91.7 | -6.0 | 9.1 | 30 | 19 | 63.3% |
| CU (Curveball) | 72.2 | 82.1 | 6.7 | -3.1 | 17 | 13 | 76.5% |
| CH (Changeup) | 77.9 | 81.5 | -7.3 | 4.8 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| FT (TwoSeam Fastball) | 88.8 | 89.6 | -10.5 | 5.5 | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| SL (Slider) | 83.3 | 85.6 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
There’s a slight increase in his average fastball velocity, but that is SOP for a pitcher who moves from the rotation to the bullpen and it’s not enough to really think he’s going to get back to where he was last year.
What caught my attention last night was that Vazquez seemed to be throwing some of his offspeed stuff more slowly. That’s similar to the adjustment that Mike Mussina made in 2008.
Unfortunately, it looks like that was perception more than reality, because the average velocity of his curveball and changeup are about the same in both outings.
The interesting thing that popped up in the PitchFX data to me is the appearance of a two-seam fastball. Although the PitchFX pitch classification algorithm is still a work in progress and there’s some gray area in there, the difference in the average horizontal break and average vertical break between the FF (four seamer) and FT(two seamer) is large enough to make me think they are two distinct pitches.
Obviously, the lost velocity seems to be Vazquez’s biggest issue, but in terms of his statistics and not his physical tools, the biggest issue he’s had this year is his HR rate. He’s allowing 1.75 HR per nine innings compared to 1.19 in his career and 1.08 and 0.82 in 2008 and 2009 respectively. His HR/FB rate of 13.6% is also higher than his 11.3% career rate, although he was worse than that in 2005 for Arizona.
In addition to a high HR/RB rate, Vazquez is giving up more fly balls as a percentage of his batted balls against than at any other season in his career prior to 2010 (data only available from 2002). In his career about 40.6% of the batted balls against him have been fly balls, compared to 47.3% this year.
It doesn’t take Binder to tell you that a pitcher who gives up a high number of fly balls and sees more of them going out of the park is not going to be very good.
So if Vazquez has started using a two-seam fastball to get more ground balls (he induced 8 yesterday out of 10 balls in play compared to 4 out of 13 balls in play in his first relief outing), it may mean he can pitch better than he has so far over the rest of the season.
Or it could just be four and two-thirds lucky innings against a team that’s not particularly adept at hitting.
Comments
The As can’t hit. The Jays… didn’t they hit a few warning-track flies in that outing?
I’d like to believe Javy has turned a corner, but I don’t see it. I thought he needed rest, not these long relief outings. If his arm was “dead” that is. If it’s a mechanical issue, then the outings may be good. WTF do I know?
The As can’t hit. The Jays… didn’t they hit a few warning-track flies in that outing?
Yeah, that’s why I thought the two-seamer popping up was interesting.
I thought he needed rest, not these long relief outings.
Rest isn’t necessarily just the physical act of resting, but also to clear a player’s head if you think the pressure’s getting to him or he’s overthinking or whatever. Of course, that’s the gray area of psychology that we’re probably better off not speculating about. Not to say that it’s not a valid scenario, it’s just that we wouldn’t know. But maybe not knowing when he’s going to pitch helps Vazquez in some way.
I am pretty much resigned to the fact that Vazquez is not going to pitch well consistently over the rest of the season, but I’m still hopeful that he’ll surprise me.
yeah, hopefully the Binder can distinguish between a dead arm that needs rest and mechanics/incompetence that need to be fixed out of the rotation.
I posted this in the last thread, from the NYPost:
He pitched well in relief last week in Toronto and again last night in place of Moseley; a mechanical alteration in his leg lift has helped restore both vitality and precision to his fastball.
I’m not that crazy about the wild card race, and things seem pretty settled in the AL. But looks like there are great playoff races in both leagues, either division or wild card.
I guess that’s more of an observation based on folks saying Manny’s addition in Chicago is too little too late. 4 games out don’t seem necessarily to be too late. Though looks like Twins have an easier schedule.
Let’s go Yankees.
I don’t care about anyone but Marcus “Babe Shane Spenser” Thames.
I’m not that crazy about the wild card race, and things seem pretty settled in the AL.
I don’t like the Wild Card and really want the Yankees to take the division. I consider it a greater accomplishment to win a division like the AL East over 162 games than to win through the playoffs. I also hate it when second-place teams win championships.
I’d be happier if the Yankees went 102-60 and took the division, only to be bounced by Minnesota in the ALDS than to take the Wild Card and make the World Series. I might even prefer it to winning the World Series, which would be bittersweet as a Wild Card.
[8] I don’t feel that way. The Yankees ending the season as anything other than world champs is grave misery.
[8] That’s crazy talk.
Re last night:you just can’t figure baseball, you shouldn’t even try and anyone who tries is crazy as is anyone who listens to Serling not tied to a chair though I must say Tino and Flaherty are no bargain either.
Agree that [8] is crazy talk.
Re JV: Maybe the Jays and As were tired from teeing off on Dustin and Phil.
Or else there’s something assonantal going on and he’ll do well in relief against the Rays.
Yay.
[8] Yeah, that’s a bit of crazy talk. And/or showing your age. Now, I want the Yankees to win the division. But if they clinch the WC, and Tampa pitches Price in the last game in an effort to get the WC, I’m comfortable if the Yankees skip CC (assuming he’s an option) in order to have him fully rested for game 1 of the ALDS.
as is anyone who listens to Serling not tied to a chair
Does driving your car count as tied to a chair?
In a perfect world (8) would be correct but all sports have been corrupted to where regular season is meaningless except for an extra home game. The wild card team should get 1 home game in the first round and the team with the best record in the league should get 5 home games in subsequent rounds if they survive and there should be rings and money for the best regular season record in the league.
In a perfect world (8) would be correct but all sports have been corrupted to where regular season is meaningless except for an extra home game. The wild card team should get 1 home game in the first round and the team with the best record in the league should get 5 home games in subsequent rounds if they survive and there should be rings and money for the best regular season record in the league.
[15] I like the idea of two wild card teams having to play 1 ‘play in’ game, which is right before game 1 of the ALDS. That way the penalty they have is that they burn their #1 pitcher and can’t thus most likely can’t use him twice in the 5 game LDS.
[15], [16], and [17] all seem to offer pretty good penalties for the wild card winner. But only [17] offers a financial incentive to do so, though it creates the harshest penalty.
Why punish one of the top two teams in baseball because they happen to be lumped together geographically? I’ve never understood the arguments against the wild card because in most years, the wild card is better than at least one other playoff team from the same league. I’d like to see the best teams in the playoffs, regardless of which division they were lucky or unlucky enough to play in.
[19] One idea that has circulated is just go to two 15 (or 14 or 16) team leagues, and have the best x (usually x=4) teams from each league compete in the playoffs. Balanced schedules would also return as part of that. I would be not-unhappy about that. Won’t ever happen…
Why punish one of the top two teams in baseball because they happen to be lumped together geographically?
Because it devalues winning the division. Division winning might be purely symbolic, all said and one, but I think it should have some significance.
Then give the team with the best regular season record one more extra game in each series then is currently allotted.
[21] Agree
I consider it a greater accomplishment to win a division like the AL East over 162 games than to win through the playoffs. I also hate it when second-place teams win championships.
I agree with your first statement, particularly with the AL East being so incredibly competitive. It makes winning the division an even greater accomplishment.
And given how difficult it is in this division, winning a championship as a wild card can NOT be considered bittersweet. As Ken noted, the wild card is often better than the other teams making the playoffs. Just because the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox all play in the same division is no reason to scoff at a World Series win, especially when its likely the WC will only be a few games back of the Division winner in the end. The AL wild card could have a better record than nearly every other playoff team in baseball this year, if not all of them!
It also burns me to see my team finish behind some Johnny-come-lately team, wearing stupid uniforms in a ghastly dome in some economic wasteland of a Sun-Belt monstrosity. This is probably a small minority opinion, but I would rather they lose out to Boston, a team with some real history, than Tampa. I hate Boston; I despise Tampa.
[25] No way. I love Tampa when I compare them to Boston. There’s nothing worse than the Red Sox and their fans, I can’t believe that you are saying that.
The Rays might not even be the Rays in ten years. They could be the Portland Beavers or the New Jersey Knights or the Charlotte Webs by then. At least the Red Sox are an original member of the American League. They’ve been playing in the same spot since the same week the Titanic sank. I respect history; as a Yankees fan, history is pleasant ground to tread.
Seriously, in this last weekend’s series against the Red Sox, probably the biggest games played there all year, Tampa drew 23000 to the Sunday evening game. The hell with that rinky-dink operation.
I can’t wait to see what Alex, Berkman, the callups, etc do for the remainder of the season. Alex coming back ala 2009 would be pretty neat. Jeter not sucking would likewise be fun.
I’m a lot more optimistic about Rodriguez than Jeter, who seems to think he’s hitting infield practice even during the games.
I respect history; as a Yankees fan, history is pleasant ground to tread.
As do I. But all history begins somewhere. I’m not going to hate the Rays because the organization was run poorly at first. When it comes to bragging rights, I’d rather not lose to the Red Sox.
I’m not going to hate the Rays because the organization was run poorly at first.
Or because someone (ownership? politicians? Selig?) decided to place them in about the worst location relative to the area cities, for people to come out to a ball game.
When it comes to bragging rights, I’d rather not lose to the Red Sox.
How about we all agree, we don’t want the Yankees to lose to anyone?
How about we all agree, we don’t want the Yankees to lose to anyone?
Try explaining that to rLr. =P
I consider a league title to be at least as important as a World Series title. It is winning a marathon, which I think deserves a lot of credit, even though it is not as sexy as winning a sprint (i.e., World Series), which gets more hype. My only complaint is the unbalanced schedule, which means competition level is different for each league.
Then again, I am a soccer fan as well. And league titles probably mean more to soccer fans than a knock out championship title.
someone (ownership? politicians? Selig?) decided to place them in about the worst location relative to the area cities, for people to come out to a ball game
The Trop (formerly the Thunderdome and before that the Florida Suncoast Dome) was built by the city of St. Petersburg in an effort to entice an MLB team to relocate. So I think the poor location is all on the pols in this case.
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