The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Saturday, October 14, 2017

2017 Cubs vs. Dodgers NLCS Postseason Odds

Since Discofever asked, here’s a quick overview of the NLCS teams and their projections.  It’s the National League, so I can’t pretend to be well-versed enough in either team to present much beyond what the data says so here it is.

First, the Cubs position players.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Jon Jay LF 27.00 .277/.349/.366 17.58 3.05
Kris Bryant 3B 27.00 .284/.388/.528 16.52 4.54
Anthony Rizzo 1B 27.00 .282/.392/.536 16.42 4.62
Willson Contreras C 27.00 .268/.342/.455 17.77 3.69
Albert Almora CF 26.00 .269/.296/.393 18.30 2.69
Addison Russell SS 26.00 .248/.319/.430 17.71 3.19
Jason Heyward RF 25.00 .265/.340/.413 16.50 3.12
Javier Baez 2B 25.00 .258/.307/.446 17.33 3.14
Kyle Schwarber OF 14.12 .236/.334/.491 9.40 2.00
Ben Zobrist UT 15.00 .259/.351/.418 9.74 1.93
Alex Avila C 4.00 .230/.355/.394 2.58 0.47
Tommy La Stella IF 4.00 .270/.349/.393 2.60 0.47
Ian Happ C 4.00 .241/.312/.440 2.75 0.49
Leonys Martin OF 4.00 .244/.298/.367 2.81 0.40
Total 255.12 168.00 33.81

I should note here that I’m using outs based on 24 times seven games instead of 27 because of the arcane rules in this league that require every team have three automatic outs among their 27.  Then again, without that rule, we wouldn’t have the tactical excitement that only the double switch can bring.

Next up, the Dodgers.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Chris Taylor CF 28.00 .268/.332/.422 18.70 3.50
Corey Seager SS 27.86 .285/.351/.476 18.08 4.01
Justin Turner 3B 27.00 .296/.376/.494 16.85 4.21
Cody Bellinger 1B 27.00 .248/.326/.499 18.20 3.87
Yasiel Puig RF 27.00 .277/.353/.492 17.47 4.02
Curtis Granderson LF 24.00 .234/.332/.455 16.03 3.19
Chase Utley 2B 21.00 .241/.313/.390 14.43 2.34
Austin Barnes C 16.00 .258/.343/.404 10.51 1.95
Logan Forsythe 2B 16.00 .250/.341/.401 10.54 1.94
Yasmani Grandal C 15.00 .239/.330/.453 10.05 1.99
Kike Hernandez OF 12.00 .231/.305/.397 8.34 1.29
Andre Ethier OF 11.00 .254/.328/.411 7.39 1.29
Kyle Farmer C 2.00 .300/.300/.350 1.40 0.18
Joc Pederson OF 0.00 .231/.345/.445 0.00 0.00
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 0.00 .242/.287/.355 0.00 0.00
Total 253.86 168.00 33.78

And now, the Cubs pitching staff (which is kind of discombulated at the moment).

Pitcher Role IP R
Jose Quintana SP 10.00 4.13
Jon Lester SP 8.00 3.55
Jake Arrieta SP 6.00 2.68
Kyle Hendricks SP 6.00 2.70
John Lackey SP 5.00 2.42
Wade Davis RP 4.00 1.37
Pedro Strop RP 4.00 1.53
Justin Wilson RP 4.00 1.67
Brian Duensing RP 3.00 1.30
Carl Edwards Jr. RP 3.00 1.20
Mike Montgomery RP 3.00 1.43
Total 56.00 23.97

Lastly, the Dodgers.

Pitcher Role IP R
Clayton Kershaw SP 12.00 3.86
Yu Darvish SP 12.00 5.16
Rich Hill SP 6.00 2.54
Alex Wood RP 5.00 1.99
Kenley Jansen RP 4.00 1.07
Brandon Morrow RP 4.00 1.73
Tony Watson RP 3.00 1.34
Tony Cingrani RP 3.00 1.46
Josh Fields RP 3.00 1.40
Pedro Baez RP 2.00 0.71
Kenta Maeda RP 1.00 0.41
Ross Stripling RP 1.00 0.45
Total 56.00 21.67

At one point in the year, the Dodgers were threatening the 1998 Yankees as the best team of all time.  Luckily for us, they went into a major slump and finished the year as a merely great team.  I don’t know if they’re better than Houston on a talent basis, but they are close enough to have an argument for it.  These projections and depth charts have them scoring 33.78 runs per game and allowing 21.67, which is a 70.8% winning percentage.  The Cubs are essentially the same offensively at 33.81 runs per game, but their pitching is a couple of runs worse. 

The Cubs are still a very good team, and can certainly win this series.  But the Dodgers should be favored, and using these numbers I’d put the odds for getting the chance to get beat by Houston at Dodgers 54.1%, Cubs 45.9%.

--Posted at 7:16 am by SG / 1 Comment | - (0)

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