The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Friday, November 8, 2013

2014 CAIRO MLB Projections v0.1

It’s time for the first set of my 2014 CAIRO MLB projections. 

They can be downloaded via this link.


I expect there to be some errors in here so let me know if you see anything that looks off.

Things like pitcher wins, losses and saves and hitter runs and RBI are based on a weighted average of the last four years and will change as roles and teams change so keep that in mind.  At some point I’ll add projected platoon splits as well.  I’ll also be adjusting playing time and rosters as the offseason unfolds so expect several updates as we move towards spring training. 

--Posted at 9:02 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)


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You have Verlander projected for a 3.54 RA, 3.18 ERA, 3.16 FIP and 5.3 WAR in 219 innings.

Kershaw is projected for a 2.72 RA, 2.44 ERA and 2.61 FIP but only 4.6 WAR in 221 innings. That seems off, even accounting for the difference in leagues.

Given that the top of the pack for pitching is completely dominated by the AL, my guess is that there is indeed an issue with league differences, 8 of the top 10 predicted pitchers are in the AL.

Also, Detroit has 4 of the top 10 predicted pitchers. I don’t think this is a mistake, just remarking on it.

Yeah, that looks wrong.  Kershaw should be about 7 runs better than Verlander in WAR.

I probably screwed up the league/park factor thing somewhere.

Also, Mike Trout. I’m pretty sure there is no way to accurately project him at this point in time.

Sour grapes but I sure wish Tigers had a competent reliever or two.

[5] I know that’s how it went down, but if Cabrera was healthy I think that series would have been a lot different.

[6] There’s no way he would have been dominated by Tazawa had he been healthy.

I assume you people are talking about the hypothetical postseason that was not canceled.

[8] Yeah, how can you have a postseason with the best hitter in the game injured? It’s just not right.

There are some ugly numbers in that spreadsheet.

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