The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Thursday, December 6, 2012

2013 CAIRO MLB Projections v0.2

I’ve decided to post an update for CAIRO since the Yankees have made so many significant moves.  Well, maybe not but some teams have.

It can be downloaded at the following link.

cairo_2013_mlb_projections_v0.2.zip

Update: CAIRO v0.5 is now available

As far as what’s changed since version 0.1:
- I’ve moved players that have switched teams
- Added a few players like Kyuji Fujikawa
- Added a tab for projected wOBA platoon splits.  You can replace CAIRO’s projected wOBA with any other you like and it will recalculate them.  These are based on the work done on platoon splits in The Book and a spreadsheet designed by berselius from ObstructedView.net.
- Since I don’t bother with projecting playing time aside from whatever CAIRO spits out, I’ve got additional tabs for batters and pitchers based on the depth charts at RotoChamp.  CAIRO’s more for statistical analysis than Fantasy but hopefully this will help out any people that want to use it for Fantasy and it’s set up so that I can update it very easily in future releases.

As a goof I ran 100 iterations of the 2013 MLB schedule to get some projected standings but won’t post the whole thing.  Here’s how the AL East looks as of last night.

Team W L RF RA Div WC1 WC2
TAM 88 74 687 620 33.5 10.8 11.5
NYA 87 75 773 732 32.0 8.0 7.5
TOR 86 76 797 754 24.5 7.5 14.5
BOS 80 82 793 782 5.0 4.5 5.5
BAL 77 85 728 777 5.0 2.8 4.5

Get to work Cashman!

--Posted at 7:08 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Are Toronto fans excited? I want to go to a game up there to find out.

Anybody signed Swisher yet?

This may be unpopular here, given our frustration with him at the end, but my hope is that Swish finds there isn’t a big market for him and ends up back with NYY on a reasonable deal.

Probably untrue, given the deals Scutaro and Victorino got.  But it would be nice.

[2] Swisher isn’t getting a lot of noise in the market but he’ll still get paid pretty well. I think the Yankees should seriously consider bringing him back.

[3] I doubt he gets the 5 years he is looking for though.

Yankees have offered Youk 12MM. I’m going to go find a bucket now.

[2-4] I’d like the Yankees to bring him back but yeah, I think he’ll get a lot more than they’ll be willing to commit to.  He may still get 5 years.  I think he was probably considered 2nd between Hamilton and Upton.  While teams that weren’t in on Hamilton still had interest in Upton (Atlanta), I don’t think any team interested in Swisher isn’t *also* interested in Hamilton.  So, once Hamilton signs, there are probably between 2-4 teams who will turn their attention to Swisher.  He’s the consolation prize.  But even 2 teams is still plenty to drive up price.  He’ll probably get between 4/60 and 5/70.

[6] Sounds about right. Personally I would love Swisher on 4/60, and normally I think the Yankees would too, but the whole 2014 budget really prevents that.

[5] Probably a fair deal, for one year.  That’s paying for what, 2.5 wins?  Maybe only 2?  Youkilis can probably do that if healthy, and his defense is probably at least acceptable at 3rd.  After ARod returns - assuming he can play 3rd regularly - Youkilis is probably the best DH they’ve had since…Matsui in 2009?  Of course, he could not be healthy, and/or his decline could just be age related.

I guess worst case, Youkilis is hurt some and declines further, and he’s a 1 WAR overpay; still useful and this is probably the last year they can overpay so much.  Best case, he can be healthy and rebound to near 2011 level of play, maybe with some more PA, and be worth close to 4 WAR.  Not only is it a bargain and a big help to Yankees, but it may then make sense to offer him a qualifying offer; if next year is anything like this year, he could probably get a deal worth 3/40 or something.

I can’t believe we might replace Cool Guy Chavez with Youkilis…eww…

[7] Definitely.  I think for the Yankees to get interested it would need to come down to something like 3/36.  Even though they would be loath to commit to a $12MM AAV for any non-Cano player for 2014 and beyond at this point, that deal would be too good to pass up.  I highly doubt that will happen but it seems every year there are a few FA who end up being severely undervalued. Edwin Jackson for example.

More likely though if it gets to that point, they could get Swisher maybe for 1/15, where he would figure another year with similar numbers and he could get a larger offer.

[9] We don’t like things about him, but one thing I’ve never heard about Youkilis is that he’s anything less than a good guy in the clubhouse.  Not like say a Shea Hillebrand or anything.  If Youkilis had been the exact same player with Oakland or Detroit all these years, we’d probably be happy to have him…

[11] He looks like Shrek and in incredibly whiney. I’m pretty sure the only way I would like him is if he had come up on the Yankees. And even then the complaining is pretty off putting.

[10] Is Swisher’s 10 year service time trade protection about to kick in? If they were to get him to a reasonable enough deal, the plan could be to deal him in the offseason. That is risky though, since if he stinks or they otherwise can’t trade him, they get another anchor around their necks.

Swisher:  I’m not saying he won’t get a 5-year deal, but that strikes me as sort of crazy.  The only people who SHOULD get 5 year deals are young potential superstars and elite veterans.  I just don’t see a 32-year-old Nick Swisher as somebody you pay big bucks to play for 5 whole years. 

Youkilis:  I’d be in favor of getting him if he can still play.  First, I don’t think the NYY have a luxury of being choosy given the injury to Alex and the losses of Swisher (assuming that happens), Martin, and Chavez.  Second, if he comes to NY and succeeds, and especially if he helps the Yankees win a playoff series or two, the reaction in Boston will be worth every penny the Steinbrenners are paying him.  There are still plenty of cars here with “Youk!” bumber stickers. 

I also look forward to a future, heartwarming made-for-TV movie about the intimate friendship that will grow between Youkilis and Joba.

[12] - I agree about the complaining. It’s why I never liked Paul O’neill… But to Mike K’s point I’m in the minority about O’neill.

[0] So the Orioles are pretty much a lock for the Division, then ?

Are Toronto fans excited? I want to go to a game up there to find out.

If the Blue Jay Magic returns, we could be seeing dozens of umps in the stands.

If Youkilis had been the exact same player with Oakland or Detroit all these years, we’d probably be happy to have him…

It’d be worth going to spring training just to see if Joba beans him during a team scrimage. I would.

[2, 3] I think Swisher is probably waiting to see what Hamilton gets. Figures he’s the next best thing to Hamilton, or maybe just the same when you account for all of Hamilton’s risks.

[15] Wasn’t O’Neill mostly just hard on himself?

I wouldn’t mind Youkilis at all, if only because I think he’d make the team better considering Rodriguez’s issue, our lack of a clear DH, and our loss of a legit back up at 1B.  There was a time I could have never imagined Johnny Damon on the Yankees and that happened and worked out well.

[12 & 15] May not have “liked” him, but probably wouldn’t have cared…

[15] The O’Neill/Youkilis analogy is apt.  I’ve heard Sox fans say about O’Neill what we say about Youkilis.  Conversely, I’ve heard Sox fans say about Youkilis what we said about O’Neill.

[21] But they’re RS fans.

rilke with the comment of the offseason.

Yeah rilkefan is right.  The equivalence is false.  I am ashamed of myself.

Phillies acquire Ben “Midnight Ride” Revere.

If Swisher is “only” going to get somewhere around $14-15 million a year for less than five years, he’s a great value and the Yankees should try to sign him and then trade Grandy. I’d rather have Swisher than Grandy. Plus, Heathcott and Williams would be center/left field guys anyways, right? So that’s a position you could fill cheap in 2014 (theoretically). I love me some Austin, but he’s not going to be a guy you could throw out there in right field in 2014.

So one year offer to the only player I hate in the MLB worth 12 million but not a 16 million 2 year offer for Martin?

I understand it now. The front office wants to fuck their fan base. I get it now.

dakranker is dakranky today.

Now there’s a report out there that Cashman had no authority to make offers at the winter meetings.
Maybe one day the Steinbrenners sell the team and they’ll be good again.

Boston signed Uehara, one of the elite relievers in the AL.
His numbers last year: 1.75 ERA 0.639 WHIP 43Ks and only 3 walks.

Can’t wait for the Yankees to give 60 million to the overrated Rafael Soriano.

[30] Just saw that. Uehara is really good. But he is also kind of old and missed a pretty big chunk of time last year. Good pick up.

[26]  Oh it’s definitely a great value.  But Yankees won’t do it.

I’m not sure why you would think Heathcott and Williams would be ready for 2014, but Austin wouldn’t?  Austin is ahead of both of them; only a bit ahead of Heathcott but ahead.  Also, Heathcott could definitely play RF; he’s got plenty of arm.  Maybe not elite, but I’d wage above average for a RF.

[31] Not the best pick up, I know, but the Yankees just lost Soriano to FA and they are doing nothing to replace him. I hate to overpay for relievers, but Soria and Uehara were solid options to replace Soriano.

Well, they’re replacing Soriano with a decent closer.

[29] In addition to [31], he had a career year last year (rate wise) and will be 38, and was only 1.5 bWAR.  He’s good, but I don’t think anyone to get upset about. 

Yankees aren’t signing Soriano.  If Hal won’t allow Cashman to spend a few million for next year think they’re going to commit $10MM+ to a reliever?

[34] And have Whitley and Montgomery in AAA.

I will not miss Soriano.  He will not be inducted into the Mel Hall of fame.

One of the yugliest players in baseball history could soon be our third baseman.

[38]  IIRC, the Yankees teams of the 50’s had some pretty ugly players…

I’m not worried about the pen in the least.  Between Rivera, Robertson, Joba, and whatever Cashman can cob together from the minors and scrapheaps, the Yankees will be fine there.  That’s the reason why they shouldn’t have signed Soriano in the first place.

I expect Joba to start to approach his former glory with a full season of recovery behind him.  I like Montgomery, but I’m not sold on him yet.  Edwar Ramirez made me more skeptical of minor league relievers.

[38] Plus his last name seems like it could also be a social disease.

Stay away from her man, she has a nasty case of youkilis.

I’m looking for a big year from Joba too, with his surgery farther behind in the rear view mirror.

Just wanted to use the expression “rear view mirror.”

I’d be fine with Youkilis.  He fills a pressing need and is above average (if healthy).  I survived Clemens, I’ll survive Youkilis.

I was hacking up green youkilis this morning.

[43] But what about his face?

Please note Mel Hall’s constructive, baseball-related posts in this thread.

I think Joba and Useless should room on the road

I’m not sure why you would think Heathcott and Williams would be ready for 2014, but Austin wouldn’t?  Austin is ahead of both of them; only a bit ahead of Heathcott but ahead.  Also, Heathcott could definitely play RF; he’s got plenty of arm.  Maybe not elite, but I’d wage above average for a RF.

I think they would be more willing to punt offense in left field to let a guy adjust to the Majors than they would in right field. I don’t think any of the three will really be ready for 2014 under normal circumstances, but I could see Heathcott or Williams surviving in a Melky Cabrera-like “thrown to the wolves” sort of way.

Austin, on the other hand, I don’t think is a guy you want to throw out there before he is ready (of course, if he develops so quickly that he’ll be ready for 2014, that’d be ideal).

I’m not sure I quite did survive Clemens.  I was a better Yankee fan before that trade (which I approved of, baseball-wise).  Honestly, I think the only reason I’m still a Yankee fan is because in 2005 or something I discovered this website.

P.S. Let’s go Yankees! (Clap clap clapclapclap.)

I had a hard time rooting for Wade Cranberry Boggs and I never did warm up to Clemens.

[48] To me, Austin is the kind of guy you can just throw to the wolves because he has no weaknesses, so outside of general inexperience there’s not a ton for a MLB pitcher to exploit, whereas Williams and Heathcott are more talented but less well rounded.

[48] Ah, I see.  I don’t happen to agree, but I see your point.

[52] Unfortunately that’s not quite true.  I’ve read (Law?  Others?) that he has a hole in his swing, I believe fastballs in on his hands.  I mean, I know a lot of players have trouble with them, but this was something that was brought up as a possible limiting factor.  Could just be scouts wanting to sound important, or it could be a legitimate concern.  I don’t think it’s enough to stop him from being productive in 2014 however.

Of course as we all know, 2013 will go a long way towards answering those questions.  For the 4 OF prospects (Flores should be considered here as well), best(likely) case Austin and Flores get promoted to AAA mid-season and flourish, and enter the 2014 plan, while Heathcott finishes strong in AA and looks to open 2014 in Scranton and be an early callup.  Williams would maybe get a month in AA, and start 2014 there, with a chance to be a later callup.  Don’t know if it could go better than that…but in that case, 2014 looks pretty good, no?  Maybe not from a competitiveness standpoint, but a fun-to-watch standpoint.

[53] I must have missed that, most of what I’ve read on Austin has been no outstanding pluses but no obvious weakness either, which is why he’s a good bet to reach a pretty high floor but doesn’t have a super high ceiling.

I still think it’s pretty unlikely that we see any of the big 5 positions prospects until 2015 (outside of Sept call-ups).

[38] Otis Nixon would like a word.

Hey, he said “one of.” wink

Otis Nixon…man…that dude didn’t even look human.

[54] Yeah I can’t remember where I read it unfortunately.  It may have only been a single source, or something with “anonymous scouts” or something.  So I wouldn’t put *too* much into it.  But it is a possibility…

I think Flores and Austin will be “ready” in 2014 at some point.  Probably similar to Jeter in 1995, where he was ready to come up and fill in for a few weeks.  The difference being, there’s a good chance that the player they’re replacying won’t be as good as Fernandez, so after the “starter” is ready to come back they may just stick.

I mean, getting through AA is the hard part right?  Once they’re in AAA they’re ready for the bigs.  Maybe not to be key players, but ready.

[55,56] The X-Files episode with the alien baseball player is clearly based off of Otis Nixon.

[57] Well very few prospects are completely flawless, so it seems reasonable. Fortunately Austin has 1-2 years to fix it before he is expected to be in the ML.

I don’t have a comment on Kevin “Sputum” Youkilis.

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