Wednesday, July 11, 2012
2012 Yankee Starting Pitcher Projections vs. Actuals at the All Star Break
Although they didn’t stat the season off all that well, the Yankees’ starting pitchers have been probably the biggest contributors to their place in the standings over the last two months. Here’s a look at how they’ve performed vs. their projections so far.
We start with CC Sabathia.
Sabathia’s allowed six more hits and runs than he projected to, despite being pretty close to his projected HR and walk rates and with 12 more strike outs than projected. While his velocity is down somewhat from his average velocity in 2011, it’s not down as much if you compare it to his first half velocity in 2011. He tends to throw harder and pitch better as the year moves on, and I don’t see any reason to think that won’t happen again this year.
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
RAR: Runs above replacement level (using RA adjusted for park)
WAR: Wins above replacement level (RAR divided by 10)
diff: Difference between 2012 and average projection
The projections expected a rough transition for Hiroki Kuroda, but he’s defied them so far.
Kuroda’s given up fewer hits and runs than he projected to, although his HR rate is spot on and he’s walked a few more hitters than expected. He’s also struck out a few more and has been close to a win better than expected so far this year. He’s probably not going to be as effective over the second half as he’s been so far, but he should still be solid.
For me, the most pleasant development on the 2012 Yankees has been Ivan Nova, and this table will show why.
The two most important numbers here IMO are that he’s walking fewer hitters than he projected to and striking out a lot more hitters than he projected to. Those two numbers stabilize much more quickly than any others, so we have pretty good evidence that Nova’s moved from decent back of the rotation starter to someone who can pitch in the middle of the rotation, and I’m not sure he’s done improving. His HR rate has hurt his overall effectiveness and will probably be an issue as long as he calls DNYS home, but if he can get that down a bit more he may be the second best starter on the Yankees by the end of the year. Then again, he probably was last year too.
An ugly April has Phil Hughes’s numbers looking a bit underwhelming, but he’s been much better since then.
Hughes is a bit behind his projected value, but like Nova he’s shown an improved walk rate and strikeout rate. Also like Nova his HR rate has been an issue. But I think we have to be happy with how he’s pitched over the last two months.
I only had three projections for Andy Pettitte (CAIRO, Marcel, and Steamer) but here is how he’s done so far.
Pettitte’s been better than projected in just about every way, and let’s hope that continues when he gets back in September.
Sample size means I’m going to skip over Freddy Garcia, David Phelps and Adam Warren for now. But I’ll look at Garcia and Phelps as part of the bullpen.
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