Replacement Level Yankees Weblog - 2012 Yankee Relief Pitcher Projections vs. Actuals at the All Star Break

The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Thursday, July 12, 2012

2012 Yankee Relief Pitcher Projections vs. Actuals at the All Star Break

Wrapping up my All Star Break look at the Yankees performance compared to projections is the bullpen.

Freddy Garcia started the year in the rotation but had awful results and was moved to the bullpen. With CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte out of action, Garcia was moved back into the rotation where he’s had two solid starts against the teams that are probably the Yankees’ biggest rivals this year, Tampa Bay and Boston.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	43	47	22	20	5	12	27	4.55	4.28	4.28	6	0.6
davenport	43	46	24	24	6	13	24	5.12	4.96	4.73	3	0.3
marcel	43	45	21	19	5	13	28	4.36	4.06	4.19	7	0.7
oliver	43	48	23	22	5	12	25	4.84	4.50	4.31	4	0.4
pecota	43	48	25	23	6	13	28	5.13	4.78	4.40	3	0.3
steamer	43	46	23	22	6	11	26	4.88	4.54	4.41	4	0.4
zips	43	48	25	23	6	13	25	5.20	4.85	4.64	3	0.3
average	43	47	23	22	6	13	26	4.87	4.57	4.42	4	0.4
2012	43	48	27	25	6	10	32	5.65	5.23	4.09	0	0.0
diff		1	4	3	0	-3	6	0.78	0.67	-0.33	-4	-0.4

Garcia’s actually got a better walk rate and strike out rate than projected although that’s likely due to pitching out of the bullpen for much of the season. According to FIP, Garcia’s actually pitched about as well overall as he did last year when he was a surprisingly effective starter for most of the season. Again, the fact that the most of his 2012 innings are out of the pen means he’d probably be a bit less effective as a full-time starter, but I think I’m comfortable in saying he isn’t nearly as bad as he looked in April and can probably keep the Yankees in most games as a starter if needed. I’d assume he’ll be the one to stay in the rotation over David Phelps when CC comes back, with Phelps going back to AAA to remain stretched out as a starter. That could obviously change if he starts to pitch poorly again.

Speaking of David Phelps, here is how he’s done compared to his projections so far.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	41	50	25	24	6	14	24	5.58	5.16	4.77	1	0.1
oliver	41	46	22	21	5	12	28	4.91	4.54	4.16	4	0.4
pecota	41	48	25	24	6	16	26	5.58	5.16	4.65	4	0.4
steamer	41	43	22	21	5	13	27	4.87	4.50	4.11	7	0.7
zips	41	50	26	25	6	13	25	5.77	5.40	4.63	6	0.6
average	41	47	24	23	5	13	26	5.34	4.95	4.46	4	0.4
average relief	41	40	20	19	5	13	30	4.49	4.16	4.00	9	0.9
2012	41	37	15	14	6	17	42	3.29	3.07	4.32	11	1.1
diff Starter		-10	-9	-9	1	4	16	-2.05	-1.88	-0.15	7	0.7
diff Reliever		-8	-4	-4	-1	0	4	-0.85	-0.79	-0.46	5	0.5

Phelps was originally projected as a starter, so I’ve done a conversion of his average 2012 projection to relief. He’s still been more effective than projected looking at that, although his FIP is a bit worse thanks to one extra HR allowed. He’s probably heading for a regression in his BABIP, but if he can keep his FIP in the 4.3-4.5 range he’s probably a viable back-end starter for the Yankees. Because of that, I’d assume he’ll go back to the minors to start regularly when CC comes back, with an eye on bringing him back whenever the rotation needs him.

Cody Eppley wasn’t expected to be part of the Yankee bullpen when the season started, but he’s now thrown 23 mostly good innings.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	23	25	13	12	3	11	17	5.20	4.85	4.61	1	0.1
marcel	23	22	12	11	3	9	18	4.55	4.25	4.41	3	0.3
oliver	23	23	12	11	2	10	20	4.68	4.37	4.10	3	0.3
pecota	23	24	13	12	3	10	19	4.98	4.65	4.25	2	0.2
steamer	23	24	13	12	2	11	16	4.90	4.57	4.22	2	0.2
zips	23	24	12	12	2	11	17	4.80	4.52	4.47	2	0.2
average	23	24	12	12	3	10	18	4.85	4.53	4.22	2	0.2
2012	23	20	7	7	1	11	14	2.74	2.74	3.78	8	0.8
diff		-4	-5	-5	-2	1	-4	-2.11	-1.80	-0.44	5	0.5

His peripherals are lackluster and his FIP is buoyed by pretty low HR rate. I don’t think he’s as good as his RA/ERA so far this year, but he’s fine as a middle reliever.

Much like Eppley, Clay Rapada wasn’t really expected to be a major part of the Yankee bullpen but he’s thrown 24 innings.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	24	24	12	12	3	11	19	4.63	4.35	4.25	3	0.3
davenport	24	23	12	12	3	10	19	4.63	4.63	4.17	3	0.3
marcel	24	23	12	11	3	9	20	4.50	4.24	4.12	3	0.3
oliver	24	23	12	11	2	10	19	4.43	4.17	3.84	4	0.4
pecota	24	23	12	11	2	11	21	4.31	4.06	3.92	4	0.4
steamer	24	25	13	13	3	10	17	4.97	4.68	4.44	2	0.2
zips	24	24	12	12	3	10	19	4.60	4.40	4.18	3	0.3
average	24	24	12	12	3	10	19	4.58	4.36	4.13	3	0.3
2012	24	14	9	7	1	14	23	3.37	2.62	3.37	6	0.6
diff		-10	-3	-5	-2	4	4	-1.22	-1.74	-0.76	3	0.3

Regular numbers like RA/ERA/FIP for someone like Rapada aren’t all that useful because he’s more of a tactical option to use for facing a specific batter or two and his value is heavily dependent on the base/out situations he’s used in. Rapada’s faced 70 LHB and has held them to a line of .150/.246/.217. It’d be cool if he walked fewer of them, but it’s tough to quibble with that overall performance. If only he’d made that double play…

Cory Wade came out of nowhere to have a strong 2011 and he started 2012 out the same way after an ugly spring training. Then the wheels came off.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	33	33	16	15	5	9	23	4.44	4.08	4.31	5	0.5
davenport	33	32	16	16	4	8	23	4.42	4.42	4.01	5	0.5
marcel	33	31	14	12	4	10	26	3.80	3.40	3.89	7	0.7
oliver	33	34	17	15	4	8	23	4.57	4.09	4.05	4	0.4
pecota	33	32	16	14	4	9	24	4.31	3.86	4.16	5	0.5
steamer	33	34	18	16	4	10	22	4.91	4.39	4.35	3	0.3
zips	33	36	18	17	5	8	22	4.92	4.61	4.37	3	0.3
average	33	33	16	15	4	9	23	4.48	4.12	4.16	5	0.5
2012	33	42	25	24	6	8	34	6.81	6.54	4.12	-4	-0.4
diff		9	9	9	2	-1	11	2.33	2.42	-0.04	-9	-0.9

I have no idea what’s up with Wade, and I have no idea if he’s lost his ability to be an effective pitcher in MLB. His FIP is fine, his walk rate and K rate are good, but he’s getting hit hard. While we generally expect FIP to be a better predictor going forward, it’s entirely possible Wade has lost the ability to limit hits on balls in play to some extent. He’ll probably be pitching in AAA trying to figure things out and won’t be called up again if he doesn’t. I hope he does because I like watching him pitch when he’s effective.

Boone Logan’s been mostly good this year, but has struggled a bit recently.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	31	32	15	13	3	12	30	4.29	3.76	3.71	5	0.5
davenport	31	28	14	14	3	12	27	3.93	3.93	3.70	6	0.6
marcel	31	30	14	12	3	11	28	4.14	3.60	3.70	6	0.6
oliver	31	30	16	14	2	12	26	4.68	4.07	3.58	4	0.4
pecota	31	32	18	15	3	12	28	5.09	4.43	3.92	2	0.2
steamer	31	28	15	13	3	13	29	4.40	3.83	3.81	5	0.5
zips	31	30	14	13	3	11	31	4.10	3.91	3.75	6	0.6
average	31	30	15	14	3	12	28	4.38	3.93	3.74	5	0.5
2012	31	28	13	13	4	14	41	3.77	3.77	3.48	7	0.7
diff		-2	-2	-1	1	2	13	-0.60	-0.16	-0.25	2	0.2

He’s still outpitching his projections, notably the big jump in strikeout rate. He’s still a bit of an adventure at times, but I am comfortable he’ll be mostly good over the rest of the year.

Expecting a repeat of 2011 for David Robertson was not realistic. Robertson’s been fine, although we’re now hearing he doesn’t have a closer’s mentality because of two blown saves.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	24	20	8	7	1	12	31	2.96	2.77	2.84	6	0.6
davenport	24	19	11	10	2	12	27	4.02	3.88	3.60	3	0.3
marcel	24	20	9	8	2	10	28	3.20	2.92	3.11	5	0.5
oliver	24	19	10	9	2	12	29	3.72	3.40	2.98	4	0.4
pecota	24	19	9	8	2	12	31	3.43	3.13	3.08	5	0.5
steamer	24	19	9	8	2	11	29	3.40	3.11	3.24	5	0.5
zips	24	18	9	8	2	13	32	3.34	3.06	3.01	5	0.5
average	24	19	9	9	2	12	29	3.44	3.18	3.12	5	0.5
2012	24	19	8	7	2	12	40	2.99	2.62	2.25	6	0.6
diff		0	-1	-2	0	0	11	-0.45	-0.56	-0.87	1	0.1

Robertson’s outpitched his projections, and his FIP indicates he’s actually been more effective than his RA/ERA show. I still think he’s the best reliever in the non-Mo Yankee bullpen, whether he’s the anointed closer or not.

I don’t know if I ever mentioned how I felt about the Rafael Soriano signing. Anyway, with Mariano Rivera likely out for the rest of 2012, Soriano’s become the closer.

Projection	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	RA	ERA	FIP	RAR	WAR
cairo	33	27	14	13	4	12	31	3.82	3.60	3.64	5	0.5
davenport	33	29	14	13	4	11	31	3.75	3.60	3.71	5	0.5
marcel	33	28	14	12	3	12	30	3.71	3.35	3.59	5	0.5
oliver	33	29	14	13	4	11	31	3.86	3.49	3.57	5	0.5
pecota	33	26	12	11	4	10	35	3.26	2.94	3.34	7	0.7
steamer	33	31	15	14	4	11	30	4.16	3.77	4.02	4	0.4
zips	33	26	13	12	3	11	39	3.43	3.14	3.04	6	0.6
average	33	28	14	13	4	11	32	3.71	3.41	3.56	5	0.5
2012	33	30	6	6	0	15	34	1.63	1.63	2.30	13	1.3
diff		2	-8	-7	-4	4	2	-2.08	-1.78	-1.25	8	0.8

Soriano’s been rock solid as the closer, putting up a Rivera-like ERA. He’s allowing a lot more base runners than Mo does, but so far that hasn’t hurt him. I’d prefer not to see him allowing two base runners to reach every inning, but aside from that I have no qualms with his work so far. I’d expect him to be closer to that 2.30 FIP going forward, but there’s nothing wrong with that.

A few odds calls aside, Joe Girardi’s managed his bullpen very well this year in my opinion. Just like he’s done in every year since he became the Yankee manager. Because of that, I think the bullpen will continue to be a strength going forward.

--Posted at 9:04 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

1. Posted at 10:27:06 am on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Mike K.

In the Epply box, you’ve got 0 for his average projection when it looks like should probably be .2 or .3 /nitpick

2. Posted at 10:37:14 am on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by SG

Oops, rounding issue. It’s 0.2.

3. Posted at 11:46:37 am on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by joeln

Does it seem like Yanks always play LA Angels more games every year than other out of division clubs? Did some research on it and found the following. Every year since 2003 they have either played 9 or 10 times every year, with the sole exception of 2010 when they played 8. Is this fair? Over past 10 years there was exactly once case each when Yanks played KC three times or Minnesota three times in a season. All other years Yanks play KC and Minnesota once- home and away. I really think the scheduling does try to make it tougher for Yanks. I see this year we have to make another additonal trip to Detroit. Who are these mysterious Selig-appointed people that turn out the yearly schedule? I guess there is one NL team that has not yet made a trip to NY since the inception of interleague in 97. At least thats what a TV announcer said during a game.

4. Posted at 11:56:09 am on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by dred

Any idea what the D-Backs are looking for in exchange for Upton?

5. Posted at 12:18:00 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Ugly Johnny Dickshot Classic

Yankees still in first with the best record in MLB today.

6. Posted at 12:40:40 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by SG

Any idea what the D-Backs are looking for in exchange for Upton?

I don’t see anything in the Yankee system that is worth Upton.

7. Posted at 1:16:36 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by rilkefan

[6] How about everything?

8. Posted at 1:16:49 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by the Frog

[4] Melky and IPK +?

9. Posted at 1:22:57 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by SG

I think Betances + Romine + ??? should be our new proposed package for everything.

10. Posted at 1:23:49 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Rob in CT, smokin' the objective pipe

[8] It’s a little painful to contemplate what Melky + IPK is worth now. Yikes.

Not that I minded either trade. I was on board both times.

11. Posted at 1:24:25 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by SG

Remember when Joel Sherman wanted the Yankees to trade IPK and Melky for Eric Gagne? Yeah…

12. Posted at 2:44:05 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Snuggles the (F) Unfortunate Porcupine (CO)

[10] probably something close to all the proposals we came up with.

13. Posted at 2:45:24 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by UsualNoise

I don’t see anything in the Yankee system that is worth Upton.

Yeah, but the D-backs aren’t exactly super-thrilled with Justin at this point, so it’s always possible they take a sub-par package to get rid of him. Anytime you’re on the owner’s bad side you never know…

I can dream, can’t I?

14. Posted at 3:05:49 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Ugly Johnny Dickshot Classic

Is “dreaming” the same as “complaining”?

15. Posted at 3:20:41 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Snuggles the (F) Unfortunate Porcupine (CO)

[14] Good dream imply that reality could be improved, bad dreams reveal possible concerns. So yes, dreaming = complaining.

16. Posted at 4:45:58 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by joeln

A bit more research shows that since 1997 Dodgers have not played interleague games at Yankee Stadium. Both matchups came in LA. This seems very strange, no?

17. Posted at 4:50:03 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Of all the dramatic things M. Waters has ever seen

SG, how bullish are you on Mason Williams?

18. Posted at 4:50:06 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by dred

[9] I say we offer Betances + Romine + Campos. Campos will undoubtedly go on to be an ace in this scenario, but we all know he’s never reaching the majors in our system.

19. Posted at 5:18:13 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Snuggles the (F) Unfortunate Porcupine (CO)

[17] stat-wise he compares decently to AJax. I think scouts say he’ll have more power, but a lot of the numbers are pretty similar, with Mason coming out slightly ahead. I find myself more taken in by Tyler Austin though, who has simply dominated his entire(granted, limited) MiL career.

FWIW, Williams is Law’s #21 prospect and BA’s #28 on their midseason updates (Austin at 45 and 39 respectively).

As far as I can tell AJax peaked at 27 in 2009/going into 2010.

20. Posted at 5:41:38 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Brian Cronin

How much would it take for the Yankees to get Willingham, do you think? He is signed cheap.

21. Posted at 5:42:08 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Brian Cronin

I find myself more taken in by Tyler Austin though, who has simply dominated his entire(granted, limited) MiL career.

Yeah, me, too. Austin just seems kind of special. Williams looks like he has the better chance of being an MLB regular, but Austin looks like he has the bigger upside. Austin seems like a guy who could be a future #3/#4 hitter.

22. Posted at 5:53:15 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Snuggles the (F) Unfortunate Porcupine (CO)

[21] Exactly. He’s not supposed to be particularly fast, but reports on his D are good and he has a ton of steals, so I guess he just has great instincts (5 triples and 17 steals against 2 CS this season). I wonder if the Yankees would try moving him back to 3B where his bat would be even more valuable.

23. Posted at 6:16:20 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Of all the dramatic things M. Waters has ever seen

Had no idea Austin had that many steals.

24. Posted at 6:18:18 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Snuggles the (F) Unfortunate Porcupine (CO)

[23] I was surprised to see that many too. He stole 18 last year (0 CS), but he’ll top that easily this year

25. Posted at 6:29:23 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by bebop

Williams, Sanchez and Austin all in Keith Law top 50. Banuelos would have been if healthy and Betances might have been if he didn’t suck.

26. Posted at 6:31:22 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Snuggles the (F) Unfortunate Porcupine (CO)

Betances might have been if he didn’t suck.

Can’t we say that about 99% of prospects? I like Sanchez too, although I think people are a little too bullish on his bat.

27. Posted at 6:34:10 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by bebop

I think the premise that prospects will be a disaster if they stay here and HOFers elsewhere drives up their value to other teams and should be unloaded to preferrably NL teams with frequency.

28. Posted at 6:38:19 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by bebop

26 Betances looked like he might have developed into a big timey pitcher. RJ struggled early on and I think some tall pitchers take time. Of course Brackman is the more likely template.

29. Posted at 6:40:59 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by rilkefan

[19] “I find myself more taken in by Tyler Austin”

I hope you’re not taken in.

30. Posted at 6:45:18 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Snuggles the (F) Unfortunate Porcupine (CO)

[28] I know, I was a big fan of Betances, but he really fell apart at AAA. His starts at AA have been better, so maybe he can rebuild himself. IDK, some people think he’ll end up in the pen, but if he can’t throw strikes he won’t end up anywhere.

[29] Fine. I believe Austin may be the best prospect of the 3, or at least the most successful. Happy?

31. Posted at 7:12:47 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by rilkefan

[30] “Happy?”

Is Brett Gardner out in center or standing on third after a single and two steals?

By the way, why is there no baseball game on? Sunday was a long time ago.

32. Posted at 7:13:38 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by dred

I’d also trade one of our middling prospects to the Reds for Fast Billy Hamilton.

33. Posted at 7:19:04 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by King Jon, Monarch of all that is Low and Flat

I don’t know much about Austin except the typical prospect chatter. Anyone got a good comp for him?

34. Posted at 8:21:14 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by SG

SG, how bullish are you on Mason Williams?

Very. I think he’s the best prospect in the system right now.

35. Posted at 9:09:52 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Closing The Gap With Toronto (Pin)

I like Sanchez too, although I think people are a little too bullish on his bat.

Haven’t we learned not to get our hopes up with hard hitting catcher prospects ? They never work out.

36. Posted at 9:27:09 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012 by Wombat Pete

Mel, welcome back from where you’ve been.
Hope it wasn’t too dark.

37. Posted at 12:01:33 am on Friday, July 13, 2012 by Snuggles the (F) Unfortunate Porcupine (CO)

Yankees just signed their 1st round pick for 600K below slot due to… wait for it… “abnormalities” in his shoulder that showed up in an MRI.

38. Posted at 12:07:48 am on Friday, July 13, 2012 by tedbrogen

[37] So, he might advance through the system quickly and be ready for the Flat Ground World Series this year?

39. Posted at 12:11:49 am on Friday, July 13, 2012 by bebop

37- hilarious-as Pete Seeger said “when will they ever learn? “. But hell at least they were frugal.

40. Posted at 12:16:49 am on Friday, July 13, 2012 by Tree

Abnormalities means freak of nature who shouldn’t be able to pick up a baseball, let alone throw one, and who can’t get injured.

Right??

41. Posted at 12:41:13 am on Friday, July 13, 2012 by Ugly Johnny Dickshot Classic

Mel Hall, back?

Truly the second half can begin now.

42. Posted at 12:41:40 am on Friday, July 13, 2012 by Ugly Johnny Dickshot Classic

Mel…Hall…IS…back…

43. Posted at 10:36:21 am on Friday, July 13, 2012 by Mike K.

My take (if anyone cares) on the 3 big prospects…

Austin is probably the best all around hitter of the bunch. IDK if the Yankees will move him back to 3rd or not. They may want him to just learn OF and get comfortable. I believe I’ve heard he’s adequate at 3rd, and should have the tools to be at least that in RF but he’s still rough. If he’s limited to corner OF it obviously limits the ceiling of his value. I don’t think anyone I’ve read views him as a potential MVP candidate, but a well above average regular. The SB are mostly looked at as a product of good instincts + uneven C defense in the low minors. Sounds more like an 8-10 SB guy in the majors, which has value still.

Sanchez probably has the most pure power of the group, AND he also walks a lot. Has a chance to be an elite hitter as well. If he can stick at C - which most of what I’ve read people believe he has the tools to, though that doesn’t translate - could very well be the most valuable of the group. Think Posada’s best years as his peak, maybe with a little more power, which is MVP caliber.

Williams is probably the best overall prospect though. His speed should allow him to regularly steal 20-30 bases, maybe more (partly depends on how often he’s on base). Sounds like he should have average or better defense in CF. Doesn’t K much, walks at an OK clip, and hits a lot of LD which should mean good average. Only thing holding him back is power. Kenny Loften seems like a decent comp, maybe a bit more power, with a few less steals.

So that’s my opinion: Austin well above average regular (3-5 WAR for his peak years), Sanchez MVP caliber (5-7 WAR) if he sticks at C, above average regular (2-4 WAR) if he’s a DH or 1B. Williams MVP caliber (5-7 WAR), more likely to hit that value than the other guys. Could add 1 WAR per year if Williams develops more power, or Austin moves back to 3rd and is average there. Of course, I’m an optimist…

44. Posted at 2:52:37 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012 by tokyojordan

[43] “Of course, I’m an optimist…”

For sure, it sounds like we have 3 of the best prospects in the world