It’s funny that Cairo had the most optimistic prediction for the Shockmaster.

[1] Is it? Is it really? We know that CAIRO is inherently biased to favor Yankees. Even if we don’t like said Yankees.

Thank you, Cashman.

Ibanez’s OBP irritates me, but he’s managed to not be a major problem. 

My patience with Martin wears thin.

Chavez, on the other hand, has been really good, which is nice because ARod is now a glorified singles hitter. 

[4]
Rob, I’m having trouble remembering the last time he was glorified by anyone.
Reggie?

I don’t generally think baseball players are role models but based on that recent article it’s damn near heroic what Chavey has to do just to stay on the field. And then despite all that he’s still managed to produce at such a high level? Slow clap, my friend.

based on that recent article it’s damn near heroic what Chavey has to do just to stay on the field.

Which article?

WSJ (no paywall!): http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304765304577480803911265114.html

[8] - Wow.  Retire now before you can’t get out of bed and spend time with your family.

Thanks Jon!

[9] I don’t know anything about his home life but seems like he really wants to win a ring. They came close several times during the Moneyball era, plus he’s got to feel cheated out of other chances because of his injuries. It would be really nice for the guy if they won it all this year, I bet he would retire then.

No problem Jonathan

My patience with Martin wears thin.

I wrote about this I think yesterday.  But Matin’s BIP distribution appears very similar to what it was last year, but he’s displaying more power (generally, you’d think he’s hitting the ball with more authority), and yet his BABIP is abysmally low.  Seems to be more luck based than anything.  I mean, it’s always possible that he is either crushing pitches (doubles and HR) or hitting the ball very weakly, and nothing in between.  But I don’t find that likely. 

More likely, for rest of year his BABIP will approach last year’s .250ish, and he’ll provide more value.  If he gets a bit more luck than “average”, he could approach last year’s total value, which is ~3 fWAR.

There’s a big uptick in his K rate too.  He’s struck out 12 more times than he projected to over the same # of PA.  There may be more going on here than bad luck.

[13] Sure, I’m sure it’s more than ALL bad luck.  But it’s what now, .193?  If I look at FanGraphs between 2009-2011, all players with at least 200 PA in a season, only two had lower BABIPs - Tyler Covin and Brandon Wood.  Who both had MUCH lower BB% and considerably higher K%, and other peripherals that were more consistent with a lower BABIP.  So I have difficulty believing that Martin is one of the worst hitters w/rt BABIP over the past 3 years, especially as his peripherals are better.

Maybe .250 isn’t his true talent BABIP any more.  Maybe it’s more like .230.  Still, if he keeps walking and hitting for power and only gets a .035 bump in BABIP ROS, he’s probably above average for a catcher.

If I look at FanGraphs between 2009-2011, all players with at least 200 PA in a season, only two had lower BABIPs

I don’t disagree with your general point, but selection bias is an issue with something like this.  You won’t see a lot of players with lower BABIP and at least 200 PA in a season because those players get benched.  Are Colvin and Wood even in the majors at this point?

Martin’s probably not a .193 hitter, but he clearly isn’t even a .250 hitter anymore either. But as SG noted, not much to be done about it in the near term

Colvin’s having a monster year in Coors.  Wood’s playing for AAA Colorado Springs and is having a non-monster year there.

[15] Sure, I relize the selection bias issue.  But then you also have to be careful of the SSS issues right?  If I lower the threshold to 100PA I may also get guys who just had a run of bad luck but didn’t have the pedigree to be given a chance to turn it around, guys who were injured and DL’d for the year before they turned it around, etc.  I picked 200 because it seemed a good number to pick up guys who MLB thought were good enough to keep getting chances, w/o limiting it too much.

I guess to me Martin has proven himself as a ML quality hitter, he’s not at an age where we expect him to suddenly fall off a cliff, and for the most part his numbers are perfectly in line with prior years.  The extra K’s are a bit of a concern, but he’s also displaying more power and more walks.

[16] Again, FanGraphs has him at I think .8WAR, with +/-0 for defense.  With the poor BABIP.  If you think his true talent BABIP is more like .240 - and he keeps his other numbers similar - he’s probably worth like 1.2 WAR from here out, and he’ll finish the season up as an average C.  Would be nice if he were an All Star, but I’ll take average.

I know, I know.

I miss Posada’s bat is all.

Chavez sounds like Inspector Glokta from _The First Law_ trilogy by Joe Abercrombie, which I strongly recommend to readers of war fiction and fantasy.  Not for the faint of heart.

[20]  Looks interesting but my library’s copy has been stolen.  Is it worth buying?

Also why do you use Soviet Communist underscores instead of normal American quotation marks?

I miss Posada’s bat is all.

So did Posada for most of last year.

23 Nice!

[22] That was a standard when I taught myself English, maybe now it’s fallen out of fashion.

[21] I think so.  It’s not the best genre series I’ve read recently but some of the things it does well it does exceptionally well.  Also the trilogy is very consistent in tone and characterization and is very well balanced and shaped, and the quality of the prose (and in large part the plotting) is high.  You might like some of the cinematic aspects.

Who is better, the Yankees or Texas?

(Disregard for current purposes the Sawx’s intrinsic superiority.)

[26] Pretty close I think, if you mean, “at this exact moment”.  I like the Yankees better if they can start getting back some injured players.  Namely, CC and Gardner this month, hopefully Joba next month, and Pettitte right after.  I think Texas may have some injuries as well, but not as familiar with them off the top of my head.