Monday, July 9, 2012
2012 Yankee Position Player Projections vs. Actuals at the All Star Break Part 1
The All Star Break is a good time to take a look at how the Yankees have performed vs. their projections so far this year, and maybe think about what it means for the second half. The original projections can be accessed from this link. In this post I will pro-rate the projections to the actual playing time so far.
I’ll start with the leadoff hitter, Derek Jeter.
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
diff: Difference between 2012 and average projection
Jeter’s been a bit better than he projected to be in general, although overall the difference is slight. He’s outhitting his projection for average, but has walked a bit less than he projected to and has hit into more double plays than he projected to which has his overall value only about one run ahead of his projection. Still, I was very concerned that Jeter would be worse than he projected to be and although he cooled off quite a bit in May and June the hits appear to be falling in again. I’ve kind of gotten to the point where I don’t really trust any defensive metrics any more so I haven’t been talking about them at all this year, but it’s safe to say Jeter’s defense cuts into his value to some extent. What that extent is, we probably don’t know, but I don’t think it takes away all of his offensive value. I’m hoping he keeps hitting like he has so far this year and it would be cool for him to finish above .300.
Moving on to Curtis Granderson, here’s how he looks compared to his projections.
Most of the projections expected Granderson to regress from his MVP caliber 2011, and he has by a bit. However, he’s still well ahead of his projections and he’s actually hit into fewer double plays on a rate basis than he did last year which has his overall value pretty close to his 2011 on a rate basis. I am pretty comfortable that Granderson’s projections are underselling him because of the tangible change he made at the end of 2010 and think he’ll be about as good over the rest of the year as he’s been so far.
After two players who’ve exceeded projections we come to the first disappointment of the 2012 Yankees, Alex Rodriguez.
I figured Rodriguez would hit pretty well but would miss a non-trivial amount of time. Instead he’s stayed remarkably healthy but has underperformed, particularly in the power department. He’s hit eight fewer extra base hits than projected, but been pretty close to where he projected to be in his average and OBP. He’s shown flashes of power at times, but not enough to make me think he’s going to go on a tear in the second half. It wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m not expecting it.
I’ll look at Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher in the next post.
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