Monday, July 9, 2012
2012 Yankee Position Player Projections vs. Actuals at the All Star Break Part 1
The All Star Break is a good time to take a look at how the Yankees have performed vs. their projections so far this year, and maybe think about what it means for the second half. The original projections can be accessed from this link. In this post I will pro-rate the projections to the actual playing time so far.
I’ll start with the leadoff hitter, Derek Jeter.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 390 | 349 | 55 | 100 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 11 | 3 | 31 | 55 | 9 | 4 | .286 | .345 | .384 | .325 | 45 | 75 | 17 |
| davenport | 390 | 355 | 50 | 102 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 10 | 3 | 32 | 51 | 9 | 3 | .288 | .352 | .402 | .336 | 48 | 80 | 17 |
| marcel | 390 | 350 | 53 | 99 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 36 | 11 | 3 | 32 | 56 | 9 | 3 | .284 | .345 | .388 | .327 | 46 | 76 | 17 |
| oliver | 390 | 353 | 45 | 99 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 52 | 10 | 3 | .282 | .340 | .378 | .321 | 44 | 73 | 15 |
| pecota | 390 | 355 | 46 | 101 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 60 | 9 | 3 | .285 | .349 | .382 | .328 | 45 | 76 | 17 |
| zips | 390 | 353 | 51 | 95 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 38 | 9 | 3 | 30 | 55 | 8 | 4 | .268 | .329 | .362 | .310 | 41 | 68 | 12 |
| average | 390 | 349 | 55 | 100 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 37 | 10 | 3 | 31 | 55 | 9 | 3 | .286 | .344 | .388 | .325 | 45 | 76 | 17 |
| 2012 | 390 | 360 | 47 | 111 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 47 | 7 | 2 | 24 | 49 | 13 | 2 | .308 | .351 | .411 | .337 | 48 | 80 | 18 |
| diff | -8 | 11 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 10 | -3 | -1 | -7 | -6 | 4 | -1 | .022 | .007 | .024 | .012 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BR/650: BR pro-rated to 650 PA
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
diff: Difference between 2012 and average projection
Jeter’s been a bit better than he projected to be in general, although overall the difference is slight. He’s outhitting his projection for average, but has walked a bit less than he projected to and has hit into more double plays than he projected to which has his overall value only about one run ahead of his projection. Still, I was very concerned that Jeter would be worse than he projected to be and although he cooled off quite a bit in May and June the hits appear to be falling in again. I’ve kind of gotten to the point where I don’t really trust any defensive metrics any more so I haven’t been talking about them at all this year, but it’s safe to say Jeter’s defense cuts into his value to some extent. What that extent is, we probably don’t know, but I don’t think it takes away all of his offensive value. I’m hoping he keeps hitting like he has so far this year and it would be cool for him to finish above .300.
Moving on to Curtis Granderson, here’s how he looks compared to his projections.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 382 | 332 | 61 | 87 | 14 | 4 | 19 | 51 | 10 | 4 | 43 | 84 | 4 | 4 | .263 | .351 | .502 | .366 | 58 | 98 | 27 |
| davenport | 382 | 335 | 54 | 87 | 18 | 5 | 20 | 52 | 11 | 4 | 43 | 82 | 4 | 4 | .261 | .353 | .521 | .374 | 60 | 103 | 24 |
| marcel | 382 | 333 | 59 | 84 | 14 | 4 | 18 | 51 | 11 | 4 | 40 | 84 | 4 | 4 | .253 | .336 | .483 | .351 | 54 | 92 | 24 |
| oliver | 382 | 333 | 51 | 82 | 14 | 5 | 16 | 49 | 9 | 3 | 41 | 84 | 4 | 3 | .245 | .328 | .457 | .339 | 51 | 86 | 20 |
| pecota | 382 | 339 | 50 | 88 | 15 | 6 | 16 | 54 | 11 | 3 | 40 | 84 | 4 | 4 | .261 | .345 | .481 | .357 | 55 | 94 | 25 |
| zips | 382 | 333 | 63 | 85 | 13 | 5 | 19 | 56 | 10 | 4 | 43 | 87 | 4 | 4 | .256 | .346 | .495 | .361 | 56 | 95 | 25 |
| average | 382 | 332 | 61 | 87 | 15 | 5 | 18 | 52 | 10 | 4 | 42 | 84 | 4 | 4 | .263 | .347 | .497 | .362 | 57 | 97 | 26 |
| 2012 | 382 | 327 | 61 | 81 | 10 | 2 | 23 | 61 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 99 | 4 | 3 | .248 | .351 | .502 | .367 | 57 | 97 | 33 |
| diff | 0 | -6 | -5 | -3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | -1 | 8 | 15 | 0 | -1 | -.015 | .003 | .004 | .004 |
Most of the projections expected Granderson to regress from his MVP caliber 2011, and he has by a bit. However, he’s still well ahead of his projections and he’s actually hit into fewer double plays on a rate basis than he did last year which has his overall value pretty close to his 2011 on a rate basis. I am pretty comfortable that Granderson’s projections are underselling him because of the tangible change he made at the end of 2010 and think he’ll be about as good over the rest of the year as he’s been so far.
After two players who’ve exceeded projections we come to the first disappointment of the 2012 Yankees, Alex Rodriguez.
| Projection | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | BR | BR/650 | BRAR |
| cairo | 350 | 303 | 50 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 4 | 1 | 40 | 63 | 8 | 4 | .273 | .363 | .474 | .365 | 51 | 95 | 23 |
| davenport | 350 | 307 | 46 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 53 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 63 | 7 | 3 | .270 | .361 | .478 | .367 | 51 | 95 | 21 |
| marcel | 350 | 304 | 47 | 81 | 16 | 1 | 15 | 58 | 5 | 1 | 38 | 64 | 7 | 4 | .267 | .350 | .468 | .355 | 49 | 92 | 21 |
| oliver | 350 | 306 | 44 | 81 | 15 | 1 | 15 | 49 | 3 | 1 | 37 | 61 | 8 | 3 | .265 | .348 | .464 | .353 | 48 | 90 | 20 |
| pecota | 350 | 305 | 49 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 18 | 51 | 6 | 1 | 41 | 69 | 7 | 4 | .275 | .368 | .507 | .379 | 55 | 102 | 27 |
| zips | 350 | 304 | 46 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 61 | 5 | 2 | 38 | 67 | 8 | 4 | .264 | .350 | .474 | .357 | 50 | 93 | 22 |
| average | 350 | 303 | 50 | 83 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 55 | 5 | 2 | 39 | 64 | 8 | 4 | .273 | .359 | .483 | .364 | 51 | 96 | 23 |
| 2012 | 350 | 305 | 46 | 82 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 36 | 77 | 10 | 7 | .269 | .357 | .436 | .351 | 47 | 88 | 21 |
| diff | -4 | -1 | -5 | 0 | -3 | -9 | 4 | -1 | -3 | 13 | 2 | 3 | -.004 | -.002 | -.047 | -.014 |
I figured Rodriguez would hit pretty well but would miss a non-trivial amount of time. Instead he’s stayed remarkably healthy but has underperformed, particularly in the power department. He’s hit eight fewer extra base hits than projected, but been pretty close to where he projected to be in his average and OBP. He’s shown flashes of power at times, but not enough to make me think he’s going to go on a tear in the second half. It wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m not expecting it.
I’ll look at Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher in the next post.
Comments
I guess it says something that A-rod slightly under-performing is a big disappointment. Probably that he stinks.
Jeter . . . has hit into more double plays than he projected to
He’s hit into DPs more than 100% of the time?
Off-days suck. Four off-days in a row suck even more. What are we going to complain about?! Besides these projections, of course.
I don’t want to pick a nit, but Alex has outperformed his HBP projections across the board. I assert his OBP should be recalculated to reflect this skill.
His OBP includes his HBP. Do you want him to get double credit?
[5] Yes.
A potentially stupid OBP question: how is it counted when a batter reaches on an error?
It’s generally not included because for some reason most sites don’t track ROE with the general batting stats. But a lot of people think it should be, and it is included in wOBA.
Grazie!
But A-Rod hasn’t really disappointed. You touched on in in your write up but he has been healthier than expected. Your took the projections and prorated them to the players actual PA. If you take their preseason projections and half them A-Rod isn’t under performing and Jeter has been half a win better than projected.
You probably have to subtract out what their replacements were projected to do in those extra PA but I still think the Yankees are better off.
But A-Rod hasn’t really disappointed. You touched on in in your write up but he has been healthier than expected.
That’s fair. Availability has been a plus for Rodriguez.
I like Reggie Jackson, but he really can’t get over himself, even after so many years! George S. embraced him after retirement. Gives him a job as Vice Pres. of something and he gets to dress up occasionally and hang with the current jocks. As part of the management team, it really wasn’t very bright to share his private thoughts with a magazine. His current role is all about enhancing the chances the club is successful and doing anything to disturb the peace is really dumb. Whether he’s right isn’t the point. Also not smart to talk about deceased people and the Hall. I hope is apology is genuine. It is the thing to do.
We have a black hole at catcher. Glad they didn’t do a multiyear on Russell last winter. Nova doesn’t command the love he deserves. He still has a lot of doubters and some headlines suggested a month back he may go to AAA.
Good to be leading at AS break. Never expected this in the standings and like 1996, the team really doesn’t seem great by any means. It will be interesting to see what second half brings.
Question for all. Are Yanks satisfied with Grandy hitting .245 with a ton of power and big contract around the corner or do they lick their chops thinking about the salary controled value of the AL’s second leading hitter. I know pointless hindsight, but AJ really has turned out to be what we all hoped he’d be.
it really wasn’t very bright to share his private thoughts with a magazine
Since we’ve seen it repeatedly I think for Reggie this counts as a “skill”.
We have a black hole at catcher.
He’s got a .193 BABIP with a virtually identical batted ball profile to last year (.252 BABIP). In fact, since his GB rate is higher and he has more IF hits, you’d expect it to be a little higher. No, not all BIP are created equal. But he’s going to be higher than .193. ZIPS figures .253 for ROS which is reasonable, and putting up 1 WAR (offense only). Basically, he’s a league-average catcher who has a ridiculously low batting average that is partly driven by luck.
Glad they didn’t do a multiyear on Russell last winter.
I’m mixed on this. On the one hand, if they signed him for 3/27, they would have a league-average catcher locked up for the next 2 years at a reasonable price, especially given the 189 limit. He could be used then to help ease Romine or Murphy into a starter’s role, or even Sanchez. On the other hand, he sure is depressing his value right now, and maybe they’d be able to lock him up for 2/12 going forward. Which is a bargain.
[12] - Agreed on Reggie. Know your roll.
- Agreed on Granderson. I really like him as a person. He’s awesome to root for and he has been doing as well as can be expected but it hurts losing A.J.
- And just in case you were talking about the A.J. in the Pirate uniform and not the A.J. in the Tigers uniform, then I disagree. He never would have been that with the Yankees.
- And just in case you were talking about the A.J. in the Pirate uniform and not the A.J. in the Tigers uniform, then I disagree. He never would have been that with the Yankees.
No AJ the Tiger. I agree with you on Burnett. He had plenty of time to prove himself. I think his control must be better. He was ok when ahead on the count, which wasn’t very often. OR having the pitchers spot available to bail him out has proven useful. Low pressure environment. you name it, but his success this year buttresses my prejudice against aquiring most NL pitchers. Kuroda has had a pretty good run, but part of it can also be the NY press environment.
I know Burnett came from Jays, but its his success in NL I allude to. I think AL is a much stronger league despite the fact that occasionally the NL wins the series. I do still feel some love for AJ post season work against the LAA and Phils. As much as he cost and their could have been others that Might have done it, He did win big games to help get us No. 27.
Good to see the next AJ?? Mason Williams doing well already at Tampa. As is G. Sanchez. Any word on Banuelos progress or lack?
Any word on Banuelos progress or lack?
He’s been throwing in Tampa, I believe at the minor league facility. No update on when he’s scheduled to start pitching in games again. Hopefully they’re just being secretive and he’ll start games soon.
Actually Mike, if you have some time over the ASB I wouldn’t mind seeing a write up of the progress of the Yankees preseason top 10 prospects and anyone else you think has popped up on the radar. You always have as good an insight as anyone of the farm system.
Any word on Banuelos progress or lack?
He’s been throwing in Tampa, I believe at the minor league facility. No update on when he’s scheduled to start pitching in games again. Hopefully they’re just being secretive and he’ll start games soon.
He’s being groomed to take over Feliciano’s spot in the flat ground rotation.
The lack of substantive updates is a little concerning, in all seriousness.
[18] Hmm…time is something that I haven’t had in much supply…but maybe I can come up with something and send SG a note about posting…
The gamble the Yankees made with the Tigers was that they figured that in 2-3 seasons AJax could be something like Granderson was at the time of the trade. The Yankees didn’t want to wait those 2-3 seasons, didn’t know what they had in Gardner really, and couldn’t guarantee that AJax would turn into something like Granderson. IPK wore out his welcome and facilitated the trade by including a 3rd team. No one knew Granderson would turn into an MVP candidate. Hell, 4 months into his first year in pinstripes he was really scuffling until he made that change in his approach. The Yankees thought they were getting a good defensive CFer with an .850 OPS to pencil in.
Essentially, the Yankees traded a pile of money for future AJax. Unfortunately, the Yankees now need to reduce costs and there’s escalator clause for the CFer.
Me, I’m a prospect lover. But it’s hard to develop players. And it takes time. The Yankees have had the budget to buy out the development time in a sense. Now, because they have no developed positional prospects ready to step in for the aging superstars or expensive veterans, they’re kinda stuck. But I’m sure they’ll figure it out. They usually seem to.
IPK wore out his welcome
I don’t think that is true. Cashman has gone on record several times that he really didn’t want to trade Kennedy, but at the end of the day he felt it was worth it to get Granderson.
I was softly against the trade at the time. Partly because I thought Jackson would be better than Granderson *this* year. That’s possibly true, depending on how you feel about their respective defense. Either way, I more expected Granderson to be a 2 WAR player right now and Jackson to be a 3, not in half-seasons. I think this definitely goes down as a win for everyone though.
[20] - If you had time I would be interested to read it (as I’m sure others would as well) but since you don’t then don’t worry about it.
[22] I think this definitely goes down as a win for everyone though.
Kinda sorta. If Granderson proves to be too expensive to hold onto whether it’s because of budgetary concerns or age-related decline vs cost risks, then the Yankees have to find another CFer (Gardner in all likelihood) and get a couple of draft picks while the Tigers may enjoy another 4-5 years of cheap AJax and more depending on an extension.
I wasn’t too bothered by the trade, but I didn’t expect Jackson to get better with the strikezone like he has this season. So goes player development ...
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