Wednesday, April 25, 2012
2012 MLB Starting Pitching Through April 24
| Team | IP | TBF | RA | ERA | FIP | xFIP | BB/BF | K/BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 104.7 | 401 | 2.15 | 1.72 | 2.03 | 2.85 | 5.5% | 24.2% |
| Cardinals | 112.0 | 439 | 2.73 | 2.57 | 3.06 | 3.42 | 5.7% | 17.8% |
| Rangers | 120.7 | 497 | 2.83 | 2.76 | 3.25 | 3.90 | 7.6% | 19.1% |
| Pirates | 86.7 | 354 | 3.01 | 2.8 | 3.10 | 3.86 | 7.3% | 14.7% |
| Phillies | 117.3 | 473 | 3.14 | 2.84 | 3.17 | 3.20 | 5.3% | 20.1% |
| White Sox | 110.7 | 442 | 3.17 | 3.09 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 7.9% | 23.8% |
| Athletics | 122.0 | 495 | 3.32 | 2.95 | 3.63 | 4.19 | 6.1% | 13.3% |
| Marlins | 100.3 | 414 | 3.50 | 3.41 | 3.30 | 3.51 | 6.5% | 18.4% |
| Giants | 107.7 | 439 | 3.59 | 3.51 | 3.66 | 3.80 | 6.8% | 19.6% |
| Dodgers | 104.7 | 435 | 3.61 | 3.01 | 3.63 | 3.80 | 9.4% | 21.8% |
| Rays | 107.3 | 453 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 4.16 | 4.31 | 9.9% | 16.1% |
| Blue Jays | 109.7 | 443 | 4.02 | 3.78 | 5.45 | 4.32 | 9.3% | 13.5% |
| Tigers | 95.3 | 406 | 4.25 | 3.87 | 3.29 | 3.43 | 6.2% | 21.4% |
| Reds | 106.0 | 448 | 4.42 | 3.99 | 3.92 | 4.23 | 6.5% | 14.3% |
| Angels | 106.0 | 440 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 4.24 | 3.40 | 5.9% | 20.2% |
| Mariners | 107.7 | 454 | 4.51 | 4.43 | 3.62 | 3.88 | 5.9% | 18.3% |
| Mets | 96.3 | 418 | 4.58 | 3.92 | 3.62 | 3.25 | 7.7% | 20.8% |
| Indians | 84.0 | 367 | 4.61 | 4.18 | 4.19 | 4.31 | 9.0% | 13.9% |
| Astros | 108.3 | 466 | 4.65 | 4.24 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 8.2% | 16.7% |
| Diamondbacks | 108.0 | 456 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 4.17 | 3.68 | 7.5% | 18.4% |
| Cubs | 106.0 | 455 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 3.42 | 3.63 | 8.8% | 21.8% |
| Braves | 101.7 | 430 | 4.78 | 4.16 | 3.80 | 3.99 | 9.1% | 19.3% |
| Brewers | 102.7 | 441 | 4.91 | 4.82 | 3.91 | 3.60 | 7.0% | 21.8% |
| Padres | 104.0 | 445 | 4.93 | 4.15 | 3.92 | 3.85 | 11.0% | 19.8% |
| Orioles | 100.3 | 433 | 5.02 | 4.22 | 4.33 | 4.15 | 9.5% | 18.7% |
| Royals | 88.0 | 386 | 5.32 | 4.81 | 4.11 | 4.49 | 11.7% | 16.8% |
| Rockies | 88.3 | 390 | 5.40 | 4.89 | 4.96 | 4.83 | 9.5% | 12.6% |
| Red Sox | 94.3 | 413 | 5.72 | 5.63 | 4.92 | 4.22 | 9.9% | 17.9% |
| Yankees | 96.3 | 427 | 6.17 | 5.51 | 4.35 | 3.44 | 6.1% | 21.1% |
| Twins | 95.0 | 423 | 7.01 | 6.73 | 5.50 | 4.38 | 6.9% | 13.0% |
FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
xFIP: Expected fielding-independent pitching
Twins pitching vs. the Yankees: 2-2, 6.09 RA
Twins pitching vs. the rest of the league: 3-11, 5.88 RA
Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength? Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.
CC should be fine. I think Nova’s a good bet for continued success thanks to the big improvement in his peripherals. Whether that makes him a 2 or a 3 I don’t know, but it’s probably safer to think he’s a 3. Kuroda will also be ok I think, but I don’t think he’s a 2 in the AL. It’d be nice if Phil Hughes wasn’t awful, because with Michael Pineda looking less and less likely to pitch this year Andy Pettitte could in theory fill one hole between Hughes and Freddy Garcia, but he can’t fill two. My guess is Garcia’s start on Saturday will be his last for this turn in the rotation.
Despite what they’ve shown to date I’d bet a reasonable amount of money the Yankees will not remain the second worst starting rotation in MLB by the end of the year. I think they have a chance to crack the top 20.
Comments
How does this fit with the comparison with the Rangers’ starting staff a day or so ago?
Reality vs. peripherals.
[0] I think I understand what you are doing here. After having ensured yesterday that the Yankees won’t score another run, now you are making sure the Yankees Pitching stops giving up runs. I applaud your efforts.
Remember how the Yankees’ starting pitching was supposed to be a strength? Now they’re hoping a 40 year old who hasn’t pitched in a year can ride in and save the day.
We’re seeing a near-perfect storm.
1) Early CC. Frustrating, but nothing to worry about long term. The worry should be him degrading from age before we have another Ace. Which could be this year, actually. The degrading part, not the replacement Ace development part. We’ll see.
2) Pinata injury. Always a risk with pitchers, especially young ones.
3) Hughes. Ugh. I don’t want to talk about it. Move along, folks.
4) Garcia woke up. In hindsight, shoulda kept Colon (who was my choice over Garcia). Maybe Garcia will put it together. Too soon to give up. Actually, it isn’t too soon, but it’s too painful to contemplate, given the context of suck around him.
5) Joba being pushed back from mid-season to mid-winter return. This is actually a good thing, IMO. But on paper it was seen as reinforcements and a hedge against a context of suck.
After all that, we’re tied with Baltimore and Toronto at the top of the division, and have what, 2.5 games on the Townies ? No, 3.5. Even better. Fucking Townies, HA !
I’m still glad we’re not watching the AJ Shit-Show.
This is irritating, but cause for optimism:
6.17 5.51 4.35 3.44
RA, ERA, FIP, xFIP.
I’m still glad we’re not watching the AJ Shit-Show.
You are. He’s just wearing a Phil Hughes/Freddy Garcia mask.
This is irritating, but cause for optimism:
Sort of, but I wonder if xFIP will overrate teams that play in disgraceful bandboxes.
Actually, it looks like from 2009-yesterday the Yankees’ xFIP and ERA are identical at 4.03, so never mind.
[5] I’m also a huge fan of Hughes’ K rate, which is a hair under 23%, an extremely good mark.
Clay, so you’re saying he had really good stuff?
[9] It would appear so, just not all the time. His swinging K rate and swinging strike rate back that up too, 15.2% and 8.7 percent respectively (against 11.5% and 8% average). I’ve only seen some of Hughes’ starts but from what I saw and others told me, Hughes’ issue seems to be consistency. His fastball remains very good, but the secondary stuff remains a problem, yet it clearly has the upside of his extremely good K and swinging strike rates.
But holy hell is he terribly frustrating to watch.
Another interesting fact: batters miss on pitches inside the zone from Hughes 17.9% of the time against an mlb average of 12.3 but miss on pitches outside the zone a mere 21% of the time against an average of 27.6.
[11] I know, it’s a joke, have you missed this meme?
[12] Fascinating. What on earth does THAT mean? And is the SS meaningful?
[10] I have seen most but not all of the innings he has pitched this year. I agree consistency does seem to be the issue. The curveball looks like junk sometimes. I remember it having sharper bite when he came up, but memory may deceive me.
[9] Oh I know, but the thing is that he actually does have great stuff despite the results.
[12] the SS is probably too small, but it may explain why he’s struggled so much this year. FWIW he had similar, although less extreme numbers from 2010.
It would appear so, just not all the time.
It could even be less about having “stuff” and more about approach. I haven’t seen many of his IP either, but sometimes I’m thinking, “enough with the FB already, try a change!”. So it could be his pitch selection is an issue, could be location (which could be as much about choice as accuracy), etc.
Some of these things I don’t think are overly difficult to fix. Pitch selection for example, he’s got constant in-game reminders from Martin and Rothschild about doing better with selecting the right pitch. Location - if it is intentional - is also something they can help with. If his “stuff” is inconsistent, that’s more difficult to fix.
[15] I think it’s stuff more than approach. This is purely impressionistic, but his fastball is substantially better than last year. His secondary stuff—cutter and curve—seems to get pounded more, especially when he lacks command. The curve is just not a good pitch right now.
[16] I have a dimly aware impression that on any given day he’s either god his fastball working and nothing else, or he throws that curve really well but his fastball isn’t there. I can’t remember when the last time anyone said “he had all his pitches working today” about Hughes.
You know what sucks? We’re on year 4 of having a 5 man rotation where one guy who was expected to pitch is basically is a total dud:
2012: Pineda, in progress
2011: Hughes
2010: Vazquez
2009: Wang
Seems to me like Hughes 2012 makes him a repeat offender. He’s standing in to suck for Pinata while he’s on the DL.
[18] I agree. And somehow, no AJ on the list. That’s pretty sad.
I wonder… is that pretty normal across MLB? To have one guy out of your 5 just totally suck or be hurt? I think it might be.
FUSE has been very frustrating. The whole FUSE/CHAMBERREAM/IPK experience has been frustrating. I just don’t know that it’s abbeynormal.
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