The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

2012 In Review - Nick Swisher

Getting Nick Swisher has been one of Brian Cashman’s best moves.  Swisher provided the Yankees with four strong regular seasons at a below market rate while costing the Yankees nothing they’ve really missed.  Swisher’s 2012 was probably the second best season of his Yankee career.  Here’s how it compared to his projections.

Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 626 533 84 138 31 1 24 82 2 2 80 129 15 5 .259 .357 .455 .354 86 90 27
davenport 594 510 71 135 26 1 27 76 1 2 80 121 13 4 .265 .370 .478 .370 87 96 27
marcel 581 497 76 131 29 1 23 76 2 2 71 119 13 5 .264 .358 .465 .357 81 91 26
oliver 599 512 72 133 31 1 20 77 1 1 75 120 15 4 .260 .355 .441 .349 80 87 23
pecota 600 514 78 129 28 1 23 73 2 1 81 132 13 5 .251 .360 .444 .354 82 89 25
zips 587 498 76 126 27 1 24 82 1 2 80 129 14 4 .253 .359 .456 .356 81 90 25
average 598 509 80 132 29 1 23 78 2 2 78 125 14 4 .259 .360 .458 .357 83 90 26
Projection PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP HBP avg obp slg wOBA BR BR/650 BRAR
cairo 624 531 84 138 31 1 24 82 2 2 80 129 15 5 .259 .356 .455 .354 86 90 27
davenport 624 536 75 142 27 1 28 80 1 2 84 127 14 4 .265 .369 .478 .370 92 96 28
marcel 624 534 82 141 31 1 25 82 2 2 76 128 14 5 .264 .356 .465 .357 87 91 28
oliver 624 533 75 139 32 1 21 80 1 1 78 125 16 4 .260 .354 .441 .349 83 87 24
pecota 624 534 81 134 29 1 24 76 2 1 84 137 14 5 .251 .359 .444 .354 85 89 26
zips 624 529 81 134 29 1 26 87 1 2 85 137 15 4 .253 .358 .456 .356 86 90 27
average 624 531 84 138 30 1 25 81 2 2 81 130 14 5 .259 .358 .458 .357 87 90 28
2012 624 537 75 146 36 0 24 75 2 3 77 141 9 4 .272 .364 .473 .364 91 94 31
diff -9 8 6 -1 -1 -6 0 1 -4 11 -5 -1 .013 .005 .015 .008
2012 League Avg 624 561 73 143 28 3 18 70 11 4 50 120 13 5 .255 .320 .411 .311 72 75
2011 624 517 80 135 29 0 23 84 2 2 93 123 18 5 .260 .373 .449 .362 88 91 28

diff: Difference between average projection and 2012 actual statistic
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position

The second set of projections, league average and 2011 stats are pro-rated to 2012 PA to allow a direct comparison.  League average is not adjusted for DNYS so mentally account for that.

Swisher was able to get a few more hits to fall in this year than projected, mostly doubles and that helped him outhit his average projection slightly.  He was worth 3-4 runs more than projected.  His versatility on defense was also important to the Yankees as he was asked to play 1B frequently with Mark Teixeira out and did it well (around +5 in 259 innings).

Unfortunately, Swisher’s postseasons for the Yankees have not been nearly as productive as his regular seasons.  I don’t know if it means he doesn’t handle pressure well or if he’s more susceptible to the better pitching he sees in the postseason or if it’s just a sample size issue.  But I know I hated watching it and I am certain it is the reason Swisher won’t be a Yankee in 2013.  The Yankees have made him a qualifying offer so that they can get a draft pick if he signs elsewhere, so there’s a minuscule chance he’ll be back next year.  But the only way that comes to pass is if he can’t get a contract for more than one year at a higher rate than the qualifying offer ($13.3M) and I just don’t see that happening.

Regardless, it’s been mostly great to have Swisher on the Yankees and I wish him well wherever he goes.

Since we’re fully in offseason mode and no one seems to care about 2012 anymore I’m not sure If I’ll do individual reviews for the pitching staff.  I may just do a post on the starters and a post on the relievers and then a team wrap up.

--Posted at 8:36 am by SG / 51 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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[0] But the only way that comes to pass is if he can’t get a contract for more than one year at a higher rate than the qualifying offer ($13.3M) and I just don’t see that happening.

This may be splitting hairs, but it’s not necessarily if he can’t get a contract, but if he and his agent, in the next week, decide that the risk of them getting a ‘better’ contract than 1 yr/$13.3M is too high.  I don’t think that’s very likely to happen at all.

Since we’re fully in offseason mode and no one seems to care about 2012 anymore I’m not sure If I’ll do individual reviews for the pitching staff.  I may just do a post on the starters and a post on the relievers and then a team wrap up.

I have a feeling that there are a handful of starters that we would be interested in some in-depth review on, and many we don’t.  For me, CC, Hughes, and Nova, maybe even Phelps.  Mainly, guys that have the opportunity to pitch a lot of innings next year, and potentially (since they’ll have to make a decision on Hughes within the next 12 months) lots of innings for the next several years.  So I’d be curious in reviewing what we expected them to do, how they did compared to that, and if we think the good (or the bad) is sustainable going forward.

The other starters (Kuroda and Pettitte, Garcia, Warren) IDK if there’s much worth reviewing about.  The first two were great, and we would welcome back for 2014 but probably not beyond that (both will probably retire).  Garcia mostly sucked and isn’t coming back, and Warren only had 1 start.  That’s my vote.  Of course, any content is much appreciated.

Qualifying offers seem like a really clean way to award draft pick compensation. Who thought the free agent typing system was a good idea?

Cody Ross for 3/$25M? That doesn’t sound so bad.

[4] No way! Ross hit .232/.294/ .390 on the road last season. And he is not a good defensive player. I think Scott Hairston is better and could be had on a one year deal.

[3] I think they’re getting to a “better” place, but not there yet.  There are a couple of issues (to me) with the new system.

1) Draft picks are still lost when you sign a player who got a qualifying offer.  This hurts the player (some players don’t get fair contract offers b/c teams don’t want to forfeit a pick for them), and hurts the teams (no way a team like Tampa will EVER sign a FA who would cost them a pick, even if they could fit it into budget).
2) Certain positions typically don’t make as much as other positions.  So it’s probably a no-brainer to qualify an average 1B who will likely get a large contract (FanGraphs has done some research that 1B are paid more per-win in FA than other positions), but Yankees couldn’t risk qualifying Martin.  I’d rather a tiered qualifying system. 

So maybe Tier 1 qualification is $13.3M and nets a 1st round supplemental.  Maybe Tier 2 is $7M (however they calculate) and nets a 2nd round supplemental, and Tier 3 is $4m and nets a 3rd round supplemental.  No qualifying below Tier 3.  Tier 1 is where you qualify All Star level players (Swisher is bottom of that tier, Hamilton near top), Tier 2 is solid regular (Martin) and almost any elite reliever (non-Boras represented), Tier 3 is non-elite relievers who will still command decent deals.

[4] Isn’t that the most you wanted to bid for BJ Upton?  Ross is 4 years older, and in almost every way a worse player than Upton. The only thing Ross has going is he had a better OPS+ last year, but over the last 3 years Upton has been better (110 vs. 105).

[1] If the player rejects the qualifying offer, he isn’t prohibited from signing with his original team is he (answer apperas to be no, he is not prohibited)?  So basically, Swisher will decline offer.  I’m sure there’s still a number of years/$$‘s the Yankees want him back at.  Say it’s maybe 3/39 (for example).  At some point, Swisher will either have an offer higher than that amount (I’m sure he’ll get at least 4/52 somewhere, probably 4/60 or 5/75), or he won’t and Yankees will resign him.  I think he’ll get a higher offer than Yankees are willing to pay.  But it isn’t impossible.

[7] I think I said 3/$30M for BJ Upton. I realy do not like BJ Upton at all.

I also think I didn’t look before I lept on Cody Ross.. he’s not quite as good as I thought. I thought he was closer to .250/.350/.450 than he is, and figure he’d be asking for 4/$40M or something like that, so the $25M total number looked .. interesting.

Question: does anyone understand how BBRef comes to it’s pitcher WAR value now?  I see some numbers that appear to be conflicting.  Looking at Hughes, they have his RA/9 at 4.75 (that’s non-controversial).  But then they come to an RAavg/9 - which they claim is how many runs an average pitcher, in that park behind that defense against the same offenses Hughes faced would give up - of 4.77, indicating to me Hughes was .02 R/9 better than average, or about a half-run better than average for the season.  But then they have an RAA (Runs above average) of -1, though it claims to be the same computation, and a WAA of -.1. 

Now, all of these still have Hughes about average for his time pitched, before adding replacement level (basically, how much he pitched), which seems right to me.  So then when they get to RAR, he’s worth 22 runs above replacement.  Which still seems right - about average performance over 190IP which is an above average number.  But then they convert 22 RAR to 1.5 WAR, which is over 14 runs per win which seems rather ridiculous.  Everything on their site UP TO WAR says Hughes should be worth about 2 wins; FanGraphs RA-9 wins is 2.2.  So, where did 7 runs go?

[9] Maybe you did, I thought you were a bit lower on that and someone else was in the 3/30 area.  Too many numbers to remember.  I know you don’t like Upton, and he probably is someone who isn’t quite as good as *I* originally thought.  But yeah, if you’re 3/30 on Upton and now lower on Ross, it’s consistent.  I think Upton is more like 4/44 and a good deal, b/c it only takes you through age 32, and if he’s a late bloomer you can really reap the benefits. 

I’m thinking I’d rather have Melky on the same contract though.  And I’m thinking what actually happens is the Yankees will either a) go with a 1 year stop-gap like Hunter or b) Cashman will pull one of his ninja moves and something no one was expecting will happen, like trade Phelps+Melky (Mesa) for Ryan Braun and his very team-friendly deal or something.

I am really not sure how BB Ref does their WAR now.  I used to have a pretty good handle on it but the adjustments they made last offseason lost me.

[12]  Thanks.  Everything seemed to make sense right up to the actual WAR value, and seems consistent with how FanGraphs computes their numbers (BBRef RAR of 22 runs, FanGraphs RA-9 is 2.2 WAR).  But then their WAR number just doesn’t seem to match up with any other values…

I’m an idiot, my post here made no sense - read my shame.

Alas poor Snuggles

[11] To be honest, I can’t remember what I said about Upton. I think Upton’s better than Ross, and if his asking price is 3/$25M, that means you get him cheaper than that (they always start asking for more than they are worth/will get, right)? But I didnt realize that Ross is really in that weird category of too qualified as a backup and likely insufficient as a starter on a championship team.  I’m not really too interested in Ross, either.

I really want Melky on a 2 year deal with an option for a 3rd year.

[16] I like the Melky idea too.

I would like Yanks to pick up Soria. I have a feeling he just might be useful at least over next two years. Price has to be right. I know that Montgomery is coming, but I think he’s likely headed for 1 1/2 years yet of minor ball.
I also like Torii Hunter for two years.  Need a little pop if we lose Swish and Torii is a gold glover with great arm and more speed than Swish. As to catcher, if Romine gets through the AFL healthy, I would plan on giving him a chance and maybe picking up the Atlanta backup guy as a fall back.  If Martin could be signed for no more than 2 years and about 10 million overall that would suffice or I’d save the money and go with Romine.

Avoid the Upton clan. Justin will cost too much and BJ is a K’ king like Grandy.

I’m ok with Melky too, priced right.

[18] I would like Yanks to pick up Soria.

Yes! I made this commetn also like a week ago. They are going to need a reasonably priced and elite closer in 2014 (if you believe they need a closer.) Soria coming off TJS fits that bill, and they have Robertson as a fall back option.

[18] Soria seems like he is gettable on the cheap, considering he’s recovering from TJ #2. I would not be shocked to see Montgomery make it to the MLB in 2013. He dominated the AA and the AFL this year, I certainly see him being in the ML before the middle of 2014.

But we can’t call Soria the Mexecutioner anymore.  :-(

[21] Interesting side thought: is it possible that the Yankees are good at developing and identifying relief pitchers, and bad at doing the same for starting pitchers? Is that even possible?

[23] Could be, there’s also a lot more that can go wrong with a starter than a reliever and you can always convert failed starters to relievers.

Re: Soria, I read somewhere today (NY Post?  RAB?) that Soria has expressed a desire to pitch with Yankees b/c Mo is his idol.  Soria stated that the only team he would go to and NOT be the closer is the Yankees.  I don’t think the Yankees *need* Soria, but he would be a nice pickup on a make-good contract with an option year.  Though *most* players return as good (or better) than before TJS, not all do.  And Soria is a rarity having undergone it twice.

Even w/o Soria, they have the makings of an above average bullpen, potentially even a great one if Mo and Aardsma return 100% and Joba gets some of his mojo back.  That’s before the depth of Whitley and Montgomery, and potentially others.  Wouldn’t want to overpay for Soria, but definitely willing to try to sign him.

[16] Upton is definitely a flawed player for sure.  But 1) there are no position players on the market w/o flaws 2) he fills a need 3) because of his flaws and his age, he could be a budget-safe outfielder for several years to help transition from the current OF to the future OF that hopefully has 2 or 3 of Williams, Heathcott, Austin, Flores.  All about price, of course.  Did Tampa qualify him?

I’d love to find a creative contract that would only guarantee Melky 2 years, but have the ability to keep him for 5.  If Melky’s present-day true-talent is a 5-6 win player, at his age, 5/75 is a bargain.  And it is VERY possible that is his current talent level.  But there is a ton of uncertaintity so…something like guarantee 2/20 (salaries of $7M and $8M, with buyouts of $1M, $2M, and $2M), with next three years going for $12M, $15M, and $18M.  That’s actually 5/60.  Think he’d go for it to guarantee probably $12M more than any other team will give him (if 1/$8M is what other teams would give him)?  Is that worth pursuing?

[23 & 24]  I think the Yankees do a very good job of targeting college relievers in the 8th-14th round territory.  So these guys come in and are able to get up to A+ or AA their second pro year.  Robertson for example had a cup of coffee with Trenton in 2007 (first pro year), and started there the 2nd year, debuting in the big leagues later that year. They also do a good job of getting plenty of innings onto them early on - Robertson threw over 80IP each of his first 2 years.

As Snuggles says, there’s more that can go wrong with a starter.  Needing to develop 2 or 3 regular pitches, and usually another 1 or 2 pitches that can be thrown occasionally, as opposed to 1 or 2 pitches, with another 1 to be thrown occasionally.  Needing to tack on twice as many innings to get them ready for the big leagues, but the difficulty in if you do too many innings too quickly, they get hurt.  Plus having the starters learn to pace themselves correctly. 

And of course finally, getting high-end starters usually means taking risks.  Guys who fall to the back of the 1st round or later have flaws; either you take a guy with a lower ceiling, or a high ceiling guy with major issues (Cole signability, Brackman health, etc).

And note that it doesn’t mean the Yankees don’t have some issues developing starters within the system, and I think they realize that.  The two top guys in charge of pitchers in the minors (Connors and Contrearas) have been reassigned and replaced.  Hopefully we’ll start seeing results as soon as 2013.

Don’t most TJS guys generally not do much in their first year back?  I’d have no problem with signing Soria but I’d imagine his 2013 will be a lot like David Aardsma’s 2012.

Or Octavio Dotel’s 2006?

[6] I think the uncertainty around whether or not players will get a better contract than the qualifying offer does a decent job of smoothing out the contracts, limiting the situation where players above a certain point get less than worse players, but you are right that it does penalize players, reducing the size of the contracts they would otherwise get. I have a feeling that isn’t an accident, although I personally don’t think it’s desirable.

I also am guessing that fewer players will accept the offer than should, due to the hubris of their agents or themselves, at least assuming the contracts are as guaranteed as a usual MLB contract. The amount of time they have to accept the offer should probably be extended, in order to allow players to negotiate with other teams up from the qualifying offer.

[28] Well, each case is probably a bit unique, especially having to consider exactly how far removed from surgery each is.  Joba’s first year back from TJS was 2012 as well, plus he had the trampoline incident which set him back even more.  Plus, Soria pre-surgery was probably better than Joba (though arguable), so…low base, incentive-laden, with an option for 2014.  But don’t look to sign him to like a $500K contract which maxes out at $2M or something.  Maybe $2M base w/ incentives bringing it to $7M, and a $1M buyout for 2014 option which would be like $5M base w/ incentives to $10M or something.  Maybe that’s a bit high, but probably in the neigborhood.

[30] Though I understand the point that the teams want to get some compensation for losing players they can’t afford to sign, I don’t like the idea that a player who is non-elite - but 2/3’s of teams would normally like to sign - is non-attractive b/c it costs a pick.  Especially if some big-market teams have a pick in the 10-15 range.  I don’t think it’s an accident, either. 

I don’t think many players *should* accept the offer.  Simply, with rare exceptions players who won’t at least double that (in total guaranteed money) aren’t going to get the offer.  The few who won’t get at least double - maybe Soriano, Kuroda - either the player is delusional, or it’s an amount the team would offer on a 1-year deal anyway (Kuroda).

[30] Random thought to myself: I would love to see a pie chart of player options that were Soriano’s and player options that were not Soriano’s over the duration of that contract. I’m calling his yearly opt-out a player option because that’s basically what it was.

[32] Teams seemed risk-averse when it came to offering arbitration to their type A agents, and I’m sure Qualifying Offers will be similar, so that actually helps the players when it comes to determining whether or not to accept it, so there probably aren’t a lot who should.

[34] Probably because the type rating was broken and arbitration rarely came down in favor of teams.

Jim Bowden is predicting a three-year/$33 million contract for Swisher. At that price, shouldn’t the Yankees just re-sign him? Yeah, they won’t get a pick, but damn, that sounds really cheap.

Of course, this being Bowden, he’s almost certainly wrong.

[36] absolutely, if Swisher only gets 11MM per year, the only other OF to break 10MM/year will be Hamilton, unless someone goes nuts for Upton. Bowden is either completely insane, or the FA market has completely collapsed.

Given all the money available in baseball right now, I’d bet on Bowden being an idiot.

Bowden predicts the following outfielders to get more than Swisher:

Hamilton, Bourn and Upton.

I think that’s actually accurate, I just don’t think Swish gets just $11 million, especially as Bowden also predicts the same exact contract for Pagan. Swisher’s getting an offer for more than $11 million. Heck, if not, perhaps he just takes the $13.3 million.

[38] I guess I can see Upton getting more than Swisher with his potential and youth. but anyone paying Bourn more than Swisher should no longer be a GM.

[26] A “bargain” at 5/75? Coming off his PED troubles? And that’s a bargain? That is how baseball got screwed up, playing slightly above average/replacement players $15 million per year. Some bargain. If that is what it will take I’ll pass. Especially when 2014 looms.

[27] Yeah! I called for changing those guys a few weeks ago. Yeah!! [Pumped up, second Old Fashioned of the afternoon, two ounces of Makers’ Mark per]. Contreras was a self promoter (nothing really wrong with that) and the Yankees fell for that for too long. Bravo!

[36] Yes, at that price he should be brought back. I’m all for it if that is all it will cost. And if true, teams are being very careful with 2014 looming.
 
I called Brackman a mistake when they took him. Coles indicated prior to the draft that he would sign. His father mislead the Yankees, for whatever reason; deliberately so IMHO.

—Vote early, vote often.

[40] If you are getting something between 2011 and 2012 Melky for 5 years, 75MM is a pretty good deal. If you are getting something between 2011 and 2010 Melky, it’s not so good. I think expecting Melky to be more or less his 2011 self for the next several years is pretty reasonable, so while I wouldn’t be excited to pay him 15MM annually, I don’t think it would be bad.

Realistically, because of him PED issues, Melky is mostly likely going to be available for cheaper. But if a lot of teams are thinking the same way and all giving him 8-9MM/year deals, why not offer him a bit more? Especially knowing that he is most likely going to be worth more than 10-12MM.

[41] Because 2014 looms and the Yankees, amongst other teams, don’t want to be held up with the new tax. BTW…. The Yankees should sue MLB over that issue. Maybe they will if and when they have to pay it. I believe they have at minimum a 75/25 chance of winning such a lawsuit.

Anyway, Melky at 5/75 never made sense to me, tax or no tax.

Why would the Yankees sue?  They are one of the teams that benefits most from the new luxury tax.  They have their publicly-funded stadium and nearly infinite resources but now they can cry that the luxury tax affects their ability to spend, thereby pocketing even more money for their personal use.  The luxury tax is just a form of collusion among owners designed to protect owners from themselves and suppress player salaries.

You don’t become fabulously wealthy in America, or anywhere for that matter, without a willingness to accept government money and then pocket the proceeds, while doing everything to suppress the wages of your employees.

I guess I can see Upton getting more than Swisher with his potential and youth. but anyone paying Bourn more than Swisher should no longer be a GM.

I disagree. Bourn is two years younger, an excellent center field defender and a strong base stealer. He’s a decent hitter, too. I think Bourn is a better bet than Swisher this offseason, but yeah, it shouldn’t be as much of a difference as people are making it out to be. $15 million for Bourn sounds absurd (Bowden is predicting 5 years/$75 million, which is way too much).

[40-42] Note in my post…If Melky’s present-day true-talent is a 5-6 win player, at his age, 5/75 is a bargain.

Basically what Melky did the last two years.  That’s an All Star, near MVP level player.  For $15M a year, it’s a bargain, and at his age, 5 years is the perfect length contract.  Should they guarantee him that?  Definitely not.  No where in my post did I say to guarantee him that.  I would like them to get creative and have a contract that with incentives and options maxes out at something like 5/57.

Basically, if Melky plays like an average-ish player for the next couple of years, he’ll be paid like one, and be gone afterwards.  If he plays like an All Star, he’ll be underpaid, but still make an obscene amount of money.  And Yankees will be getting value.  I don’t know if they CAN sign him to such a contract, but yes, I think that would be great.

[43] I think the organization is paying the bulk, if not all of the money for the new ballpark.

Pocket more? A lousy team will see even fewer tickets sold and revenues from all sources will decline over a few years.

Anyway, the Yankees are the target of the tax, that is why they could sue.

[45] Career OPS+ is 101. We know with some certainty that what he did in 2012 was PED enhanced. Was his [lesser, but good season] 2011 also PED enhanced? Very likely as there was nothing previously that would indicate Melky is anything but a mediocre offensive player.

We know with some certainty that what he did in 2012 was PED enhanced. Was his [lesser, but good season] 2011 also PED enhanced? Very likely as there was nothing previously that would indicate Melky is anything but a mediocre offensive player.

1) We don’t know how much PED’s help on offense.  Probably some, probably not as much as people popularly believe.  AND we don’t even know for sure what Melky took, or how long he took it. 

2) Most players peak in the age 26-29 range, and I believe current research indicates that they usually hold their peak for a few more seasons (so now 26-31).  So at age 26 and 27, Melky *should* be playing at a much higher level than previous years.  And he should be able to maintain this level for a few years.  So even if you think a lot of his offense was PED aided, I don’t see why it is that out of line to assume his non-PED level is closer to an OPS+ of 110.

3) So, if he’s a 110 OPS+ player, and average defensively in RF (supposition), he’s probably about an average player.

So I’m proposing to guarantee him 2/20.  I think most people are fine giving an average RF 2/20, even with the $189 million.  It’s a bit of a risk, he could only be worth $5M per year.  But the reward is that a lot of his success was not PED aided, or what was is now permanent.  You add in the options and incentives so that if he truly *is* a 5-7 WAR player, you’re paying him like a 3 WAR player.

Now, if you don’t feel the Yankees are creative enough to make that deal, or that Melky is confident enough that after a 1 year deal he can rebuild his value to get more than that…that’s fine.

We do know that Melky didn’t fail a drug test in 2011.

[47] I think it is obvious that a player who had a career OPS+ under 100 and suddenly has an OPS+ 158 and fails a drug test in 2012 was helped by the PED’s. Having your head in the sand notwithstanding.

What is a “much higher level than previous years”? From an OPS+ in the 80’s to what? 2/20 might be okay, but I’ll want to see how much others are really willing to risk on a tainted player, who if caught again misses a lot more time. I do not believe that a MLB contract can include an ‘out’ clause if a player gets caught again. The agreement between MLB and the players assoc. probably precludes such language although I’m not 100% certain.

[48] And? Since his 2011 was so far above his career numbers suspicion is high that somewhere along the way Melky started PED’s in that season.

Melky’s OPS+—95, 88, 68, 93, 83 then 121 and finally 158. Is this a ‘normal’ progression for a player? I’m off to Bedlam.

And?

So you’re suggesting he started using PEDs in 2011 and passed all the tests for them and that is why he improved so then either

a) the same PEDs that were passing the tests and made his game improve then triggered the test in 2012
b) he decided that despite the great success of his new 2011 PEDs and the fact that he fooled the drug testing program with them he figured it would be smart to switch to a new steroid that would in fact fail the drug test
c) something else?

SG - -  Then you explain his fisrt five OPS+ years then the sudden 121. There is a strong likelihood that Melky was tested early 2011, perhaps in pre pre-exhibition, then took a gamble that he would not be tested again and went the PED route. We know for a fact that he did use PED’s as far as the 2012 test. So did he gamble in 2011 and win? Then gambled again, in his walk year, with BIG dollars a possibility, and lost? Neither you nor I can say for certain but it seems likely as far as I am concerned.

Those first five OPS+ average out to 85.4 per. I know that that is not 100% how it is done but it is all we can use. Suddenly he pops up to 121 and then 158 before being caught.

Yes, it does happen that certain PED’s can be missed for a time then the testing catches up, they don’t announce this beforehand and players would not be aware of it.

Steroids build you up over time, witness Barry Bonds. He was almost certainly using PED’s over a period of time and slowly they built him into a walking ad for steroid usage. His [Bonds] very body ‘type’ clearly shouted to any who cared to pay attention, I’m on steroids, prove it. Head size growing, his very walking style bespoke massive and long term steroid usage.

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Red Sox (5-6) @ The Championship Caliber Yankees (5-6), Saturday, April 12, 1:05pm
(83 Comments - 4/13/2014 3:40:06 pm)