Tuesday, October 30, 2012
2012 In Review - Curtis Granderson
Coming off an MVP-caliber season in 2011, Curtis Granderson was expected to regress somewhat in 2012. The regression was expected to come mainly in his power numbers, but it turned out that it came elsewhere.
|2012 League Avg||684||615||80||157||30||3||20||76||12||4||55||132||14||6||.255||.320||.411||.311||79||75|
The second set of projections, league average and 2011 stats are pro-rated to 2012 PA to allow a direct comparison. League average is not adjusted for DNYS so mentally account for that.
Granderson’s average projection pegged him at around 30 HRs, 32 if given his actual 2012 PA, but he ended up hitting 43, even more than last season. Unfortunately, he hit 9 fewer doubles, 5 fewer triples and 4 fewer singles which cost him about .031 in batting average. While that is partially a function of the spike in his strikeout rate (he struck out 44 more times than he projected to given the same # of PA), he also had a career low BABIP of .260. That was despite hitting more line drives (23.0% vs. 18.2%) and fewer fly balls(44.0% vs. 48.0%) than he hit in 2011 when he had a BABIP of .295. Teams were shifting on Granderson quite a bit this year which surely plays into the discrepancy although I don’t know how much more they were shifting on him this year than last year. His performance in 2012 was about 7 runs worse than his average projection and around 19 runs worse than his 2011.
Granderson was hitting .276/.394/.632 on May 1 and hit .224/.306/.468 afterwards. That’s one great month and five bad months and it made his season feel worse than it probably was.
Of course, like most of the rest of the wretched hive of Yankees Granderson had a horrific postseason. I thought he struck out 34 times in 33 AB but it was actually 16. He hit .100/.182/.200 and went 0 for the ALCS.
Granderson had his second consecutive below average defensive season according to most of the metrics. He was above average in 2009 (around +10) but was around -6 in 2009 and -15 in 2010. Trends aren’t predictive in baseball, but defense does decline as a player gets older and at this point he’s probably better suited to a corner.
My guess is that Granderson played his way out of the Yankees long-term plans with his performance from May 2 through the postseason. They picked up his option because he’s almost surely worth a one year, $13M deal. However, they may see what he could fetch in a trade although I’m not sure how much value he has given that he’s probably going to project as around a 3.0 WAR CF which is probably worth $15-18M and is only signed for one year. The low average and the fact that 26 of his 43 homers came at DNYS may cause teams to be wary about him, although he hit 30 of his 65 homers on the road in 2011 and 2010.
Granderson’s 2012 performance is probably my biggest disappointment in the non-injury, non-Nova division. He didn’t have a bad season in terms of overall value, but he didn’t have the season I hoped for and obviously his postseason speaks for itself. I was looking forward to watching him play in pinstripes for another four or five years but now while I’d be perfectly happy watching him as a Yankee in 2013 I’m more interested in seeing if he can fetch more than I think he can in a trade.
That’s a bummer.
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