The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Thursday, September 20, 2012

2012 CAIRO Rest of Season Position Player Projections for the Yankees (with platoon splits)

I figured with 15 games left in the season most of the projections for the Yankees shouldn’t change much so I could run these.  Ichiro thanks me for not running these yesterday.

Player Split AVG/OBP/SLG wOBA
Robinson Cano Overall .302/.362/.519 .379
vs RHP .311/.373/.535 .391
vs LHP .283/.339/.486 .355
Eric Chavez Overall .253/.312/.394 .310
vs RHP .264/.325/.411 .323
vs LHP .225/.277/.350 .276
Chris Dickerson Overall .243/.327/.369 .312
vs RHP .246/.332/.374 .316
vs LHP .225/.302/.341 .288
Curtis Granderson Overall .251/.343/.498 .361
vs RHP .262/.358/.520 .377
vs LHP .222/.303/.440 .319
Raul Ibanez Overall .248/.317/.447 .331
vs RHP .254/.326/.459 .340
vs LHP .229/.293/.413 .306
Derek Jeter Overall .302/.356/.409 .339
vs RHP .294/.347/.399 .331
vs LHP .324/.382/.439 .364
Andruw Jones Overall .213/.313/.417 .320
vs RHP .209/.308/.411 .315
vs LHP .222/.326/.435 .334
Russell Martin Overall .238/.339/.384 .326
vs RHP .233/.332/.376 .319
vs LHP .253/.360/.407 .346
Casey McGehee Overall .245/.306/.398 .309
vs RHP .241/.301/.392 .304
vs LHP .255/.318/.414 .321
Jayson Nix Overall .219/.290/.381 .295
vs RHP .213/.282/.371 .287
vs LHP .229/.303/.399 .309
Eduardo Nunez Overall .262/.319/.392 .313
vs RHP .260/.316/.389 .310
vs LHP .265/.323/.397 .317
Steve Pearce Overall .242/.323/.404 .321
vs RHP .234/.313/.391 .311
vs LHP .255/.340/.425 .338
Alex Rodriguez Overall .275/.366/.468 .365
vs RHP .273/.364/.465 .363
vs LHP .280/.373/.477 .372
Chris Stewart Overall .235/.305/.340 .290
vs RHP .230/.298/.332 .284
vs LHP .246/.320/.356 .304
Ichiro Suzuki Overall .298/.333/.390 .320
vs RHP .301/.336/.394 .323
vs LHP .292/.326/.382 .313
Mark Teixeira Overall .260/.354/.487 .364
vs RHP .256/.349/.480 .359
vs LHP .268/.365/.503 .376

wOBA: Weighted on-base average

Platoon splits are calculated using the methodology detailed in The Book, an illustration of which can be found here.  That means they are regressed and based on a player’s career platoon splits, which tell us more than a single season does.

What will come next will be figuring out how the Yankees should deploy their players to take best advantage of platoon splits as they try to hold off the unstoppable Orioles juggernaut. I’ll try and do that over the next few days.

--Posted at 9:16 am by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

LOL and I just wrote a book on the last thread about Ibanez/Dickerson and Jones/any other righty batter!

I think w/ Ibanez/Dickerson the defense and baserunning should pretty much eliminate that .024 gap, right?  I’m still comfortable saying Dickerson should start over Ibanez, and yes that one is on Girardi.

However, w/ Jones, the only other OF they really have (since Nunez is out and I doubt they’re throwing Cervelli out there) with ML experience is Nix.  I don’t think Nix would add much - if anything - over Jones on defense or baserunning, so…the only other option is Melky Mesa.  Would you happen to have (or could easily run) a CAIRO for him?  I think it will also show that Mesa won’t be an upgrade over Jones…

Yeah, I think Dickerson should start over Ibanez.  These numbers don’t include any 2012 MLEs so I’m guessing the offensive gap is smaller and I’m almost positive the defensive/base running gap makes him a better option.

Let’s give each of them 400 theoretical PA.  That means Ibanez’s .340 would make him worth about eight more runs than Dickerson’s .316 vs. RHP.  So unless you think the difference in defense and base running between the two is less than eight runs and unless you think Dickerson’s 2012 minor league performance adds nothing to his projection it seems like a no-brainer that Dickerson should be playing over the Shockmaster.

If Teixeira was healthy it’d be moot since you’d have an OF of Swisher, Granderson and Ichiro, but that doesn’t seem like it’ll matter this year.

What the hell happened to Cano vs. Lefties?

Here’s how the players’ projections rank by wOBA vs. LHP and RHP.


Player: Projected wOBA vs LHP
Mark Teixeira: .376
Alex Rodriguez: .372
Derek Jeter: .364
Robinson Cano: .355
Russell Martin: .346
Steve Pearce: .338
Andruw Jones: .334
Casey McGehee: .321
Curtis Granderson: .319
Eduardo Nunez: .317
Ichiro Suzuki: .313
Jayson Nix: .309
Raul Ibanez: .306
Chris Stewart: .304
Chris Dickerson: .288
Eric Chavez: .276

Player: Projected wOBA vs RHP
Robinson Cano: .391
Curtis Granderson: .377
Alex Rodriguez: .363
Mark Teixeira: .359
Raul Ibanez: .340
Derek Jeter: .331
Eric Chavez: .323
Ichiro Suzuki: .323
Russell Martin: .319
Chris Dickerson: .316
Andruw Jones: .315
Steve Pearce: .311
Eduardo Nunez: .310
Casey McGehee: .304
Jayson Nix: .287
Chris Stewart: .284

What the hell happened to Cano vs. Lefties?

Short answer is he was probably overachieving a bit against them historically and was due to regress towards the typical LHB platoon ratio.

Regarding Mesa’s CAIRO:

80%: .242/.332/.446, .343 wOBA
65%: .228/.308/.405, .315 wOBA
Baseline: .214/.284/.364, .287 wOBA
35%: .200/.259/.323, .259 wOBA
20%: .186/.235/.282, .230 wOBA

You’d give him an average platoon split ratio, so his baseline would be something like a .302 wOBA vs. LHP, .278 vs. RHP.

So many crummy hitters these days. I know rosters have expanded, but still.

“Next few days”

NEXT FEW DAYS?????????

We need this info now. There is no time to spare.

So many crummy hitters these days. I know rosters have expanded, but still.

Yeah, it’s got to be the worst collective group of position players since the early 90s even when you adjust for the lower run environment. 

It’s not a ‘bad’ team, it’s just a worse team than we’re used to seeing.

We need this info now. There is no time to spare.

The timetable can be accelerated for a nominal fee.

[6] Thank you.  Actually closer than I thought.  Though as we all know MLE’s are some of the hardest things to translate well.  So .34 points of wOBA, over what, maybe 60 PA?  Maybe 1 run?  Or in other words, with Mesa getting a benefit of better defense/base-running, roughly a wash.  IDK, I guess I can’t fault Girardi for what is an example of just shuffling the chairs.  I would however be in favor of trying to get Mesa into some games.  For that of course they could use a blowout…

“That means they are regressed and based on a player’s career platoon splits, which tell us more than a single season does.”

I disagree with that sentence when it comes to Andrew Jones. (And I am leaning there with regard to Ibanez too.)

Seriously, right now you would rather have Jones against a lefty (334) than Ichiro (313) or Nunez (317)?

Is the O’s 15-2 in xtras the best ever?

It’s not a ‘bad’ team, it’s just a worse team than we’re used to seeing.

They stink.

Indians won 17 straight in 1949 and the Yankees won the World Series so that’s a good precedent

[14] Yes, but are you considering that since the invention of Mountain Dew, no team has won the world series after having only scored 2 runs in a game where they had 8 hits, 8 BB and 7 SB in one game. Especially one this old.

Seriously, right now you would rather have Jones against a lefty (334) than Ichiro (313) or Nunez (317)?

I think the sentence you’re taking issue with could have been stated more accurately as

““That means they are regressed and based on a player’s career platoon splits, which more often than not tell us more than a single season does.”

Projections don’t know if a player’s fallen off the cliff.  It’s certainly possible that’s what’s happened with Jones, and when you factor in defense and base running I’m pretty sure that even if those projections were accurate you’re still better off with Ichiro and Nun-E over Jones.

But it doesn’t matter what we think or what CAIRO thinks.  It matters what Binder™ thinks.  Yesterday was encouraging.  We’ll see what today’s lineup vs. Laffey brings.  I’m guessing we’ll see Jones, and that he’ll do just barely enough to not get DFA’d immediately.

thanks SG.

Again, he is more than welcome to sit on the bench. As long as he promises not to play. I would offer myself up for that job, even without pay.

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