The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Sunday, November 14, 2010

2011 Yankee Position Player CAIRO Projections v0.1

Here are the first set of my 2011 CAIRO projections for the Yankees’ position players.  I’m still eyeballing the overall projections to make sure there are no egregious errors and double-checking all my aging/park factor/regression formula so these may change slightly, but they appear pretty close to what I’d have expected.

 Player   Age   Pos   PA   H   2B   3B   HR   SB   CS   BB   SO   avg   obp   slg   wOBA   BRAR   Def   WAR
 Cano, Robinson 29   2B 681  192  45  3   26  4  4  44  78  .306   .355  .511  .372  43  0   4.2 
 Rodriguez, Alex 36   3B 594  143  27  1   32  11  3  69  105  .281   .372  .526  .384  41  -3   3.8 
 Teixeira, Mark 31   1B 690  162  38  1   33  2  1  87  115  .276   .377  .515  .384  33  3   3.6 
 Granderson, Curtis 30   CF 638  143  26  9   25  14  4  68  124  .252   .335  .462  .346  29  3   3.2 
 Swisher, Nick 31   RF 626  139  32  2   26  2  2  77  135  .260   .354  .470  .357  25  0   2.5 
 Gardner, Brett 28   OF 504  116  17  6   5  38  7  60  91  .270   .358  .372  .329  14  11   2.5 
 Jeter, Derek 37   SS 699  181  29  2   13  15  5  63  96  .290   .360  .406  .342  32  -7   2.4 
 Montero, Jesus 22   C 508  122  29  2   18  1  1  41  85  .261   .326  .446  .337  24  0   2.4 
 Posada, Jorge 40   DH 412  95  21  1   15  2  1  47  93  .267   .355  .460  .355  17  0   1.7 
 Nunez, Eduardo 24   SS 528  127  22  2   7  19  7  26  68  .257   .296  .350  .286  6  -1   0.6 
 Romine, Austin 23   C 502  112  25  1   10  4  2  26  94  .238   .281  .362  .283  6  0   0.6 
 Miranda, Juan 28   1B 475  104  21  1   17  2  1  44  100  .246   .324  .428  .329  5  0   0.5 
 Huffman, Chad 26   OF 519  110  23  1   13  3  3  47  108  .239   .320  .378  .312  4  0   0.4 
 Cervelli, Francisco 25   C 292  65  12  1   3  2  2  24  47  .255   .326  .347  .303  5  -1   0.4 
 Corona, Reegie 25   2B 523  113  24  2   6  13  3  43  81  .240   .303  .341  .289  4  0   0.4 
 Pena, Ramiro 26   SS 324  72  11  2   3  7  3  20  57  .244   .290  .324  .274  1  3   0.4 
 Joseph, Corban 23   SS 541  113  23  5   6  5  7  42  105  .231   .296  .336  .283  3  0   0.3 
 Thames, Marcus 34   LF 336  76  12  0   16  1  2  27  83  .249   .311  .448  .327  7  -4   0.3 
 Curtis, Colin 26   OF 483  106  23  2   9  4  3  34  86  .242   .303  .361  .295  -1  -1   -0.1 
 Laird, Brandon 24   1B 557  125  24  2   19  2  1  34  105  .243   .295  .406  .306  -3  0   -0.3 
 Golson, Greg 26   OF 518  111  21  4   10  15  5  26  135  .231   .272  .351  .272  -6  1   -0.5 
 Angelini, Carmen 23   SS 483  98  14  1   6  9  5  27  99  .219   .270  .296  .255  -5  0   -0.5 

BRAR: Linear weights batting runs above replacement level (park and position-adjusted)
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
Def: Projected runs saved defensively compared to average
WAR: Wins above replacement level (BRAR plus Def divided by 10)

Defense is projected using an average of Chris Dial’s Zone Rating Runs Saved from Baseball Think Factory, Ultimate Zone Rating and John Dewan’s plus/minus runs saved, both from Fangraphs.  Since Sean Smith does his own TotalZone projections as part of his CHONE projections I’ll just wait for those and then add them in as well. 

If a player has not played in the majors yet, I didn’t project their defense so they are rated as average.  I’m not saying I think Jesus Montero is going to play average defense, I’m saying I have no idea how good or bad his defense will be and I’m not going to try and fudge it.

I do have most of the minor leaguers projected but didn’t include all of them in this table since I’m still looking over the MLEs.  Pitchers should be done this week as well, and hopefully the first set of projections for everyone will be out next week. 

Anyway, now that we have this we can start to think about where the Yankees’ lineup could use some improvement and what the options are for said improvement, which I’ll start tomorrow.

--Posted at 5:47 pm by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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I would naively think everyone down to Jeter will do better than that, except maybe Alex.  Of course esp. Gardner; but also Cano.  And Jeter down worse.

Does your wOBA include baserunning?

Finally!  We can start playing simu-seasons, and can get the 2011 season out of the way in the next two months, then move on to 2012.  Who need the players?

SG, I’m sorry if these questions are dumb, but…

Why are you projecting Randy Winn?

Why so much playing time for the MiLers who likely won’t sniff the majors—what’s the assumption?

How is Cano 43 BRAR/0 def and 4.2 WAR?  Rounding, right?

Eyeballing this I don’t see how Teix can only be one BR better than Jeter.

Posada might flat mash if he can embrace DH and only dons the tools every once in a while.  He can spend the defensive half of the inning whizzing on his hands.

I would naively think everyone down to Jeter will do better than that, except maybe Alex.

I think Cano may be better than his projection, that 2008 thing still drags him down a bit.  I actually expected Rodriguez to be more like .270/.360/.510 so this may be high for him.  Teixeira seems about right to me, and I’d probably take the over on Granderson and Gardner. 

Does your wOBA include baserunning?

Nope, but BRAR does.

Why are you projecting Randy Winn?

My sources tell me he’s expected to make a triumphant return to the Bronx in 2011.  Either that or the player list I have with each player’s last team probably needs to be updated a bit.

Why so much playing time for the MiLers who likely won’t sniff the majors—what’s the assumption?

Playing time is just based on playing time from 2007-2010 with adjustments for age, so PA/IP in the minors are all included.  When trying to figure out how good the team is with depth charts we can whittle down the total MLB PAs on the team level to around 6000.

How is Cano 43 BRAR/0 def and 4.2 WAR?  Rounding, right?

Yeah, probably something like 42.6 BRAR plus -0.2 def = 42.4 WAR.

Eyeballing this I don’t see how Teix can only be one BR better than Jeter.

Positional adjustment.

I like that Angelini is still included, although I’m certain that projection is way higher than what he’d actually hit.  If you’re looking for suggestions on minor leaguers to include, I’d add David Adams, Kevin Russo, and I guess Melky Mesa is at least interesting.

Angelini gets a bump in his projection thanks to some expected improvement given his age and thanks to some regression towards his estimated mean, but yeah, I doubt he would sniff that projection in the majors.

I’ll add Adams, Russo and Mesa in a bit.

I wonder who the Yankee is with the most PA who is closest to actual replacement level…I suppose it depends how you calculate it.

Eyeballing this I don’t see how Teix can only be one BR better than Jeter

Three words: April, May, September.

It’s a long time between hits in May and September, and the flys fall short as you reach November…

Has Angelini even hit that well in the minors?

So if Montero is -20 defensively, he’s basically Cervello.

“Cano, Gardner and Robertson for Josh Johnson and Uggla. Discuss.”

No, Cano is the MVP, Uggla is almost 31 and too close to free agency, and Johnson has had back and shoulder issues.

[12] If you kill all the crazy trade ideas in less than 1 hour, it’s going to be a long offseason my friend.

[9] Have you ever by chance heard the somewhat rare James Brown version, recorded with a big band around 1972?  It is sublime.

13- Just wait till we re-sign Melky.

“the somewhat rare James Brown version”

I see it’s available on Amazon for $0.99, but I’ve never been able to get past his interjected “unh"s and “ehs”.  Will however try this one of these days.

[16] I’ve never been able to get past his interjected “unh"s and “ehs”

This tune’s not for you then.

But you can hear it on Youtube, right here.

You are welcome, RLYW peoples!

Hmm, I liked the first minute, but then Rilkekindstrich ran in and said, “No, don’t like it!”.

Nat King Cole the definitive version

Giants shit the bed, eh?

If we’re going trad jazz, I’ll take Sarah Vaughn’s any day.

[14, 16, 18, 19, 21] Anyone ever heard the Stan Kenton version ?

Sex Pistols?

[22]  Have now.  Nice arrangement, bland vocals.

Ella.  Or Johnny Hartman, sadly without Coltrane and Tyner.

[21] Am I crazy or is she occasionally cheating on her intonation here?

SG, I appreciate this exhibit.  If it’s not too much trouble, could you show the position adjustment split out from the Batting RAR?

You are welcome, RLYW peoples!

Testify!  The first I’ve heard this.  I am now happy I didn’t opt for the frog legs at our local Vietnamese restaurant the other day.

[21] I’d go with Mo and Greg.

[24] Well, yeah. It was the band members singing. There’s a reason they were on their instruments.

“where the Yankees’ lineup could use some improvement and what the options are for said improvement”

Actually, this is a really interesting question.  What are the options for improvement?  Are there any realistic ones?  What about the unrealistic but actually possible ones—like “now batting for the Yankees, Adam Everett, number 2, Adam Everett”?

And can the Yankees trade for Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, surgically combine them into one player, hand “him” the starting catcher job but also have him start every fifth day?

[26]  She should’ve used autotune.

I wondered if it could be an artistic choice to not sound too accurate here, because she has the reputation of having excellent pitch.

How did you determine player age?  Just season year (2011) minus birth-year?  I notice that Brandon Laird you have listed as 24, when next year is his age 23 year (born 9/11/1987).  For CAIRO 2011 purposes it probably doesn’t matter at all, but for discussing him long-term I think there’s a big difference between a 22-year old doing what he did in AA (and getting his feet wet in AAA) and a 23-year old doing it.  I also noticed you put him at 1B, when he’s been more of a 3B since he stopped deferring to Brad Suttle.  I think if you just make that change he probably goes up to the Nunez/Romine level (half win or so).

  If it’s not too much trouble, could you show the position adjustment split out from the Batting RAR?

Positional adjustments are below, per 650 PA.

C:  +9
1B: -11
2B: +4
3B: 0
SS: +9
LF: -4
CF: +1
RF: -6
DH: -2

DH should probably be worse than that, I’m using a weighted average of the last four years instead of the standard positional adjustments right now.

How did you determine player age?  Just season year (2011) minus birth-year?  I notice that Brandon Laird you have listed as 24, when next year is his age 23 year (born 9/11/1987).

Yeah, season year minus year of birth.  I haven’t seen any compelling reason to use a July cutoff for player age, it seems it’s only being done because Bill James did it. 

In the case of Laird, if I change him to 23, his projection actually goes down from .243/.295/.406, .306 wOBA to .243/.292/.406, .303 but that’s only because the gain in walk rate is smaller from 22-23 than it is from 22-24. 

As far as what it means long term, probably not much.  He’ll have to exceed his projection either way if he’s going to project appreciably better than either one in 2012.

... and I guess Melky Mesa is at least interesting.

So don’t throw away those “Got Melk?” tshirts

“In the case of Laird, if I change him to 23”

Can you change me to 23 while you’re at it?

[35] SG, I’m guessing the reason that Bill James has the cut off at July is because in the USA, the little league cut off is on July 31st.  However I’m not sure if all the international ball players conform to that or not. 

I just know that my wife has the statistically worst birthday for playing baseball at July 31st, and I’m not much better at July 8th.  My brother was always better at August 16th.

Yeah, season year minus year of birth.  I haven’t seen any compelling reason to use a July cutoff for player age, it seems it’s only being done because Bill James did it.

I’m not sure if there is really a gap between Nunez (June 15 1987) and Laird, as that is only 3 months.  But there probably is a gap between a player born January 1987 and Laird.  From one standpoint, it may make sense to use fractional years, but there probably isn’t anything that says a player who was 22.5 at the start of the calendar year has less development ahead of them than a player who was 22.25.  I just have difficulty saying Laird completed his age 23 season when, the AAA regular season was completed before he turned 23.

And yeah, as far as a projection system, I don’t think it really changes his long-term outlook.  It’s more the subjective part when looking at him, I think.  The biggest thing that will affect his 2012 projection is what he does in AAA in 2011, and if he plays in the majors at all what he does there.

Positional adjustments are below, per 650 PA.

I seem to recall a year or two ago FanGraphs changed over to using innings instead of PA at a position.  Except for DH of course.  The idea (I think) being that players who manned multiple positions in a game, would only get credit for one position.  For example, if Brett Gardner started the game in LF but after the 1st inning moved to CF for the next 8 innings (and got 4PA), he’d be credited w/ 4PA @ LF.  FanGraphs also has I think a 10 run gap over a full season between LF/CF, so that’s bigger.  For most players it won’t matter much, but for a few it could be a handful of runs per game.

Not commenting for any particular reason, just throwing it out there.

Can you change me to 23 while you’re at it?

I could, but your walk rate is going to plummet and your K rate is going to shoot up.  On the plus side you’ll hit more triples.

On the plus side you’ll hit more triples.

I definitely got to 3rd base more when I was 23…scored more, too.

I definitely got to 3rd base more when I was 23…scored more, too.

Probably attributable to the run scoring environment.

[42] LOL!  Don’t know if anyone is still reading this thread.  For what it’s worth, Mike you get my vote for best comment of the month.

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