The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

2011 Yankee Pitcher CAIRO Projections v0.1

It took a little longer to get these done than I had hoped, but now we’ve got the first set of Yankee pitcher projections to go with the hitter projections.

Last, First Tm Age Role IP H HR BB K RA ERA FIP RSAR WAR
Sabathia, C.C. NYA 31 SP 219 200 20 60 176 3.73 3.39 3.68 48 4.8
Hughes, Philip NYA 25 SP 172 162 21 58 147 4.29 4.11 4.17 29 2.9
Pettitte, Andy NYA 39 SP 163 167 16 51 119 4.43 4.03 4.07 24 2.4
Rivera, Mariano NYA 42 RP 68 50 5 14 62 2.83 2.60 2.99 19 1.9
Burnett, A.J. NYA 34 SP 187 191 23 74 156 5.14 4.77 4.50 17 1.7
Chamberlain, Joba NYA 26 RP 106 102 11 40 100 4.68 4.27 3.94 9 0.9
Robertson, David NYA 26 RP 67 64 6 30 71 4.17 3.91 3.68 9 0.9
Warren, Adam NYA 24 SP 85 89 11 30 61 4.98 4.61 4.56 7 0.7
Aceves, Alfredo NYA 29 RP 49 43 5 13 34 4.09 3.77 4.11 6 0.6
Pope, Ryan NYA 25 SP 116 127 17 41 82 5.41 5.02 4.83 5 0.5
Banuelos, Manny NYA 20 SP 61 65 8 24 44 5.31 4.92 4.77 4 0.4
Stoneburner, Graham NYA 24 SP 58 62 8 22 41 5.26 4.87 4.83 4 0.4
Logan, Boone NYA 27 RP 48 50 5 18 39 4.64 4.30 4.24 3 0.3
Noesi, Hector NYA 24 SP 80 88 12 27 57 5.50 5.09 4.91 3 0.3
Phelps, David NYA 25 SP 94 106 14 34 63 5.61 5.19 5.05 2 0.2
Nova, Ivan NYA 24 SP 83 94 11 35 51 5.65 5.26 5.03 2 0.2
Mitchell, D.J. NYA 24 SP 73 81 10 33 48 5.62 5.20 5.08 2 0.2
Betances, Dellin NYA 23 SP 52 56 8 24 39 5.68 5.26 5.16 1 0.1
Mitre, Sergio NYA 30 RP 72 77 9 21 43 5.24 4.66 4.69 1 0.1
Brackman, Andrew NYA 26 SP 63 71 10 28 43 5.92 5.48 5.26 0 0.0

RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement level pitcher (using RA)
WAR: Wins above a replacement level pitcher (RSAR divided by 10)

I haven’t adjusted these for defense, although it’s not likely that’ll change much since the Yankees are effectively bringing back the same team next year.  Chamberlain’s projection still includes his time as a starter, if he’s a pure reliever he should project about a half run better across the board (RA, ERA, FIP) and his inning total should be closer to what it was in 2010.  Other than that I’d just say that projecting pitching is a crapshoot, so don’t take any of these projections as gospel. 

It’s probably safe to say this team could use Cliff Lee and Andy Pettitte, huh?

I do have most of the minor leaguers projected already but didn’t want to include them all yet, so I just kept the ones that are most likely to be asked about.  I will probably release the full CAIRO projections soon, which will have just about anyone who played above rookie ball in 2010.

--Posted at 7:03 am by SG / 94 Comments | - (0)

Comments

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Mo’s IP projection would be the most he’s thrown since 2008. A few people mentioned it in the other thread, but where Mo is ‘declining’ is in his IP.

Yeah 55 IP for 2011 would continue the current trend.

[2] Yeah, what I meant about mentioning it in the other thread was that most people were ok with giving Mo 2/$36M. Not sure how I feel about a closer getting paid $18M to throw 50-55 IP. And I love Mo just as much as anyone.

Where’s Boone’s Farm Logan?

I wouldn’t pay much attention to IP right now, I’m just showing what the system spit out.  Mo’s innings gets a boost from the regression that got added into his projection, which is also why his RA/ERA/FIP go higher than what he typically does.  If I were projecting the team I’d put him around 60 IP.

Hmm, Logan disappeared.  I’ll add him back in.

It’s not just his is IP that is way down.  His K/9IP was drastically down, so was his K/BB, and his FB rate was up a tick too.  At his age and with those indicators he should absolutely only get 1 year. 

Mo’s pitching (assuming a 55 IP adjusted CAIRO projection) is worth about $7.5M a year.  Closer just aren’t worth much.  Anything above that is a bonus, which as with Jeter I’m ok with because he’s Mo, but it is the same situation as Jeter.

Looks like V-Mart is leaving Boston for Detroit.  Wow.  They best trade for A-Gone and move Youk to 3b.

Or just sign a 6th ace in Cliff Lee.

Does AJs projection have a larger standard deviation then the other pitcher’s?

[8] There will be some pissed off kool aid drinkers here in Boston if they don’t get A-Gone now that V-gone.

[9] Just like AJ’s strike zone should include a larger standard deviation.

I’m pleased to see the name Adam Warren, someone I had never heard of.  I see the highest level he has pitched at was 1/2 season at AA. Evidently his minor league results impress the projection system.  Might be worth an article.

[10] - Yeah.  He was huge for them. With Buck already off the market this is a pretty big loss. I know he was going to have to split some time with DH but with his numbers and Ortiz numbers vs. lefties that seemed like a great fit.

Now they almost have to get A-Gone, but the problem is, if they get A-Gone they have to lose Beltre for him to fit. I thought they would get 2 out of 3 of A-Gone, V-Mart, and Beltre. I’m sure they have some plan with this but it will be interesting to see what it is.

I want Graham Stoneburner to become a respectable pro for the Yankees, just cuz his name is awesome.  Slade Heathcott is a pretty cool name too, though a distinct second to Stoneburner.  Stone.  Burner.

Or just sign a 6th ace in Cliff Lee.

Only a Yankee fan would think that the Red Sox didn’t already have 6 aces.

Two observations:
1. It says a lot that I looked at AJ Burnett’s projection and the thought that went through my mind was “God, wouldn’t that be awesome if Burnett can actually get his ERA down to 4.77?”
2. Manny Banuelos is 20 years old at AA and he projects as well as Burnett right now. We should lock him up for 5 years and 80 million by the end of the month.

Hughes’ innings are probably artificially low due to his low inning count in 2009, right? Would anything change on a rate basis with about 200 innings?

[13]  I doubt they’ll sign Beltre.  The Boston press, which kowtows to management much more than its New York counterpart, has been leaking word the Sox are not likely to meet Beltre’s asking price.  Reading between the lines I get the impression that the Sox are dealing with some significant budgetary constraints.

Only a Yankee fan would think that the Red Sox didn’t already have 6 aces.

In the rotation…

How would CC/Lee/AP/Hughes/Swamp Turkey compare with Molester/Laptops/Dice-BB/Lackey/Becky?

How is it that 2011 CC is worth about 2010 Gardner?  FG has him at about 7/7.5/6/5 WAR the last 4 years.  I guess I’m discounting the injury downside that the system regresses for.

[21] I always thought CC and TSBG strongly resembled one another.

Hughes’ innings are probably artificially low due to his low inning count in 2009, right? Would anything change on a rate basis with about 200 innings?

Hughes’s projection is still a hybrid of his starter and reliever performance.  From 2007-2010 he’s started 61% of his games, and with the extra weight on 2010 his projection is probably around 80% starter/20% reliever.  So if we make him a pure starter, his RA/ERA should increase by about 0.2 runs per nine, and his peripherals would change slightly too (more hits and HRs, fewer BBs and Ks) although in this instance the change would be pretty subtle.

Kind of the same thing with Joba in reverse.

Hughes is like Benjamin Button in reverse.

How would CC/Lee/AP/Hughes/Swamp Turkey compare with Molester/Laptops/Dice-BB/Lackey/Becky?

I think you have to go to the RLRW for that.

FG has him at about 7/7.5/6/5 WAR the last 4 years.  I guess I’m discounting the injury downside that the system regresses for.

Different scales I’m assuming.  I use RA instead of FIP, and I think the highest projected WAR I have for any pitcher is 5.5.

Rough rule of thumb for most projection systems is to assume a starting pitcher aged 30 or more will lose about 0.5 WAR per season, which includes actual decline, injury risk and attrition.  Obviously any single pitcher is not going to follow that pattern, so you need to consider each case differently in reality, but that’s typically in the ballpark for the mean population of MLB SP.

So if Cliff Lee is a 5.0 WAR pitcher in 2011, figure he’s 4.5 in 2012, 4.0 in 2012, etc.,

where Mo is ‘declining’ is in his IP

It seemed to me this year there weren’t as many times when they used Mo for 1+ innings, or as many days in a row.

Maybe there were fewer save situations so they declined to use him.

[26] I think we all have seen that Mo needs to be used sparingly because of his age. It’s not to the point where it’s really a problem, but in the context of giving him $18M each of the next 2 years…

Hmm, Logan disappeared.  I’ll add him back in.

I think the system is rightfully expecting him to somehow end up wherever Vazquez ends up, which is not in New York.

Why won’t the Yankees offer Jeter arbitration? Are they too risk averse with the arbitration process?

Why won’t the Yankees offer Jeter arbitration? Are they too risk averse with the arbitration process?

Jeter made $21M. Is 1 year/$25M better acceptable if you’re offering 3/$45M? I don’t know. They also probably are dealing with an annual budget issue.

I don’t disagree with the idea that taking Jeter to arbitration risks ending up with a $25m contract, but if that happened after he put up a 90 OPS+, the process really needs to be blown up…literally.

[30] Hmmm, maybe I don’t understand the arbitration process very well. Yeah, 25 millions would be a massive overpay in this market.

I think Cashman is trying to reset the market somewhat from the earlier contract, and probably has a clearly defined agenda on how he wants to pay going forward (post A-Rod).

Top, young free agent talents: Top dollars. See Teixeira, Mark, and Sabathia, CC.
Erstwhile stars: Somewhat negotiable above market rate, but not going to get top dollars. See, Rivera, Mariano and Posada, Jorge in 2007. 
Rest: Market rate.

It seems to me that Jeter falls in the middle category, although I believe Mariano Rivera falls in the top talent category (his age notwithstanding).

[31, 32] $25M may be a stretch, but it’s a risk. He certainly wouldn’t get a pay cut from the arbitration process.

[33] He could, if Close asks for too much and Yankees offer something fair.  Since the arbitrators can only pick one of the two offers…my bet is it is negotiating - the Yankees must think offering arb gives Jeter more leverage.  e.g. since it is possible he’ll get $25M in arb, he could be more likely to get 4/60 from Yankees.  Also of course if the Yankees *do* have a budget, it could stretch out the uncertainty.  If Jeter accepts he isn’t under any hurry to get a contract done, and I’m sure Yankees don’t want to have to wait until right before ST to know how much Jeter is going to eat into the budget this year.

[12] Not sure if you meant to add the extra “A” there, but he did pitch a half-season in AAA last year.  I got to see him once or twice, and I know I wrote a glowing report after the first time.  Not going to go back and find it now, but IIRC good FB, low-90’s, and I think he got up to 94 a few times.  Seemed to have a lot of movement, and he got a lot of whiffs on it.  Also threw a decent curve either for strikes or in the dirt.  I don’t recall the change too much, though I know he used it.  The only thing I remember about the cutter, was that he got some whiffs on it.

From the first outing, he had like 10 or 12 K’s in 6 or 7IP, and I think all but one of them were swinging.  My take on him was good command, good FB, good secondary stuff.  The only pitchers I remember seeing in AAA that I was that impressed with, were Hughes and IPK.  So if the, “impress Mike K” scale has any predictive value, Warren will be a useful major-league starter, though he may have some bumps in the road on his way smile

[35] Disregard this, I was thinking of Phelps for some reason.  Who I think will do better than .2 WAR if he pitches in NY this year, but that’s just me.

Yanks offer 6/140 for Lee, according to mlbtr.

[37] As well as that “Lee continues to hold out for a seventh year.” 

If it was up to me, nfw.

[38] Seems like less than rock solid information.

I know the Yankees generally pay the best, but this offseason’s contract demands are pretty nuts. Jeter still thinks he’s 27 and apparently so does Lee.

[39] Yeah.

The Benoit and Buck contracts blow my mind.

Hamilton.

then Cabrera, then Cano.

[40] - It’s all part of the negotiation process.  No matter what you offer a guy first he is going to say I want more.  Look at how C.C. went down. 

That being said I REALLY REALLY don’t want Lee at these prices.  He’s not C.C. and the Yankees aren’t in the same position they were in when they signed C.C.

[40] Couple of articles on FanGraphs about the recent V-Mart and Huff signings.  Authors are starting to speculate that there may be more salary inflation this year than previously expected.  Too early to tell for sure as it is just a few contracts, but if the cost of a win jumps to $5.5M, the contracts Yankees are talking about might not seem quite so outrageous.  E.g. Lee for 6/140 may only be expecting 20-22 WAR instead of 25, which is doable if you start Lee at 5 WAR for 2011 - at a half-win decline per, he would do about 22.5.

What a bust Cano is.

Why would anyone offer Lee six years? CC is only signed through 35 or 36, and he’s one of the most durable pitchers alive.

Wood and Vazquez reportedly offered arb.

Wood?  That has to be wrong.

[50] Straight from Cash’s mouth re Wood.  Javy agrees to say no to arb.  Supplemental pick for Yanks.

Is there any reason to think Wood can beat what he can get in arb?  He’s not very good and he’s not a good fit for the Yankees.

[51] Wow. Good news.

[52] I think Wood will decline and try to get a job someplace else.

Wild thought: Mo doesn’t resign? $18M per is sort of crazy.

Wow, two supplemental draft picks would be nice.

[54] - Where?  Wood isn’t very good.  What do you see him getting on the open market? 

As for walking away from Mo, I think it is way to early to pull that trigger now.  I don’t think that is what they are doing.  I think they would rather wait out Mo a bit.

[56] I was sort of kidding about Mo. No, actually I was 100% obviously kidding.

Wood could get more than 1 year deal closing.. *somewhere*.

rotoworld:

Yankees GM Brian Cashman said Tuesday that Derek Jeter “should test the market” if he doesn’t approve of the club’s three-year, $45 million offer.

Cashman is right. Jeter wouldn’t find anything close to that offer in free agency. He hit just .270 with a 710 OPS in 2010 for the Yankees and again showed diminishing range at the shortstop position. Cashman’s comments might upset “the captain,” but the Yankees have already made a generous offer and have no real reason to up the total cost or length of the proposal.

Source: Wallace Matthews on Twitter

Here’s a Cashman quote from Matthew’s article on ESPN:

“I’m thinking yes on Wood,” Cashman said. “We’ll do them a favor. If we put them into an arbitration setting, then we can take them out and make a fair market value offer to them.”

Not sure what to make of that.

[59] I think a portion of what he is saying is that they think the bridge to Mariano is suspect without Wood, so a reasonable deal holds some appeal.

[60] Crazy plan C: convert Wood back to a starter. Didn’t we just grab the Cubs pitching coach or something?

I like what the Yankees are doing with Jeter, if reports are to be believed.  I would not be heartbroken if he leaves the Yankees, though I put the odds of that happening at 10-20%.

*
    Davidoff: Pettitte ‘leaning toward’ pitching in 2011
    By Benjamin Kabak

    Andy Pettitte is “leaning toward” pitching for the Yankees in 2011, Ken Davidoff just reported via Twitter. According to his industry source, the Yanks’ lefty will re-up with the team for one more year, thus solidifying the Yanks’ starting rotation. Earlier this month, Pettitte told reporters that, if he returned for 2011, it would be his final season. With Pettitte now likely to return, the Yanks must fill only one open rotation spot instead of two. This new-found leverage, however, does not mean the club is likely to reduce its offer to Cliff Lee. · (1) ·

If Wood accepts arb, won’t he get somewhere in the vicinity of $10m at least?

Jeter wouldn’t find anything close to that offer in free agency. He hit just .270 with a 710 OPS in 2010 for the Yankees and again showed diminishing range at the shortstop position

Maybe Jetes is taking that whole Gold Glove thing too seriously.

[65] For arguments sake, I’m sure there are several dumb GM’s who are also.

I’ve seen a lot of hand-wringing over the fact that Yankees appear to be negotiating Jeter’s contract through the press. Is that actually true?  I may be misremembering, but seems to me that Jeter’s camp “started it”, am I wrong?

[67] May depend on what’s negotiating, exactly - I think a Steinbrenner said the discussions “could get ugly” rather early in the process, for example.  And there have been various rumors, but probably at least some of those aren’t from the two camps.

[68]  That was a bit of a clunker comment but I think he was led there by the interviewer.  Not that he should not have been more savvy in what he said…unless it was a trial balloon.  I suppose “negotiating through the press” might not be productive in some way but as has been discussed—I know I’ve mentioned it—maybe the Yankees feel they need to prepare the fans.  Telling Jeter he should test the market is pretty tough negotiating for a team that turned on the money tap for A-Rod.

Who is Shaeffer Hall?  MLB.com (via LoHud says he’s the best lefty starter in teh Yankees system and I’ve never heard of him.

Mike K.?

Excuse me, not “best lefty” overall but the one who had the best season.

Banuelos is 3 years younger and had better results a full level higher, per bbref.

[70] 2009 draftee with pretty decent stuff if I recall correctly. And, as Rilke points out: Manny Banuelos.

Wild thought: Mo doesn’t resign? $18M per is sort of crazy.

They’ll settle on 2 years, $16.5-17M per.  No one will match that, and as opposed to Jeter you can still make the claim that there’s no one better than Mo at his position, at least for 2011. 

It’s an overpay for someone who’s only going to pitch 50-60 innings a year, but he’s Mariano Rivera.  Who would you rather have that’s available for say $12M a year instead of Mo for $17M?

Who would you rather have that’s available for say $12M a year instead of Mo for $17M?

No one. I’d prefer an option that’s not listed - Mo @ $15M per. Quibbling over $2M is pointless though.

If that’s how they want do negotiate with Jeter, fine. But why do it in public? Just be the bigger side and say it only to him.

[74] - Come on. It’s really hard to argue Mo being the Yankees best option for closer in 2011. That’s something you CAN say for Jeter.

[76] Close called the Yankees’ negotiating strategy “baffling.”

The Yankees responded to set the record straight, which seems like a reasonable approach to me.

I don’t see the problem. I just hope they aren’t posturing only to relent and vastly overpay.

Brian Cashman = Bafflecat

What’s so baffling?

I don’t see the problem. I just hope they aren’t posturing only to relent and vastly overpay.

Yeah, hopefully Hank isn’t on duty while Hal goes on vacation or something.

Only a Yankee fan would think that the Red Sox didn’t already have 6 aces.
And only the true messiah would deny his divinity.
 
And… swamp turkey?  Unquestionably worth a cupid doll.
 
Maybe Jetes is taking that whole Gold Glove thing too seriously.
Very nice, Pin.

[74] - Come on. It’s really hard to argue Mo being the Yankees best option for closer in 2011. That’s something you CAN say for Jeter.

So what are these other options?

Soria?  Nope, signed for forever.  Soriano?  He might be as good over the next two years, and obviously cheaper.

Yup. Soriano.

[84] Don’t you think he sucks?  xFIP of 3.8 last year.

[86] I agree. Watching him didn’t blow me away last year.  To my naked eyeball - as opposed to my covered eyeball—Benoit seemed the more unhittable of the two.

[86] Well, at least you agree with yourself - “If I am not for myself, then who will be for me?”

Benoit looks to have a very checkered history.

[87] I am hoist by my own petard! 

Benoit does indeed have a checkered history, including injuries.  There’s a lot of risk to that signing.  My comparison was limited to last year.

I think Soriano has done his share of time on the DL too, if I recall.

Soriano has a less than stellar health record, and his success last year was heavily fueled by a .212 BABIP compared to his .256 career rate as well as a 4.8% HR/FB rate compared to 7.8% career. 

He’s good, but he’s not as good as he was in 2010. 

On the plus side, he’s only going to be 31.  Then again, that probably means you’re going to have to offer him at least three years, and probably more like four.

So would you take Mo for two years and $36M, or would you take Soriano for say four years and $60M?

[89]  Neither.

I don’t think there’s another bidder for Rivera or Soriano at those prices.

Frankly, I don’t see anyone beating 2/30 for Rivera, and I’d guess Soriano gets more like 3/40, at most 4/50.

I’d offer Mo 1/16 or 2/26 as my starting offer.

[90] My prediction is 2/32.

[91] I’d be OK ending up there.  You always have to start lower.

[84] - And Mo’s was 3.65.

[84] & [89] - With Mo, (to copy from [7]) it’s not just his is IP that is way down.  His K/9IP was drastically down, so was his K/BB, and his FB rate was up a tick too.  At his age and with those indicators I’m worried about him being on the edge of the cliff. 

[89] Would I rather have Mo?  Of course.  Jeter is the face of the franchise for the last 15 years and Mo isn’t but I’m not going to sit there and say Mo hasn’t earned some leeway and benefit of the doubt too.  But to say Mo should get more than Jeter?  I can’t as an objective thinker than knows how freakin’ overrated closers are (and yes Mo too) and say that.  To say he is the best closer in baseball?  Not last year, not even close.  Having the most success does not mean he was the best.  I think there was a lot of luck there and to say I’m not worried about a BIG slip like that at his age or that I expect he will bounce back over the next two years, I can’t do those things.  I think it’s likely Soriano passes him next year and will make a lot less money.

The old-guy I most concerned about having back is Pettitte.  The fact that he’ll play for ~1/11 makes him hugely valuable.

If I could only have one of the three back, I’d pick Andy in a heartbeat.

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