The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Bill James Edition

Because we lost CHONE, I decided to add the Bill James projections this year.  These are available at Fangraphs.

The James projections aren’t looked at very favorably by most of the online baseball community, because they appear to be optimistic in comparison to all the other systems.  However, they’re optimistic for everyone, which means we can look at the relative differences in player and team projections as long as we account for the biggest issue I have with them. 

If you look at the hitter and pitcher projections, they’re just not internally consistent.  What does that mean?  Basically, the James projections predict an MLB that would hit for a collective line of around .275/.340/.450 on offense with pitching that would allow a collective line of .255/.320/.430.

Fortunately, running them through a simulator forces them to match up, which is why I included them here.  Here’s how the James projections look for 2011.

American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 95.2 66.8 796 667 40.0% 19.8% 59.7% 85-105 768-824 641-692 6.2 -22 -77
Yankees 94.2 67.8 817 698 36.4% 20.4% 56.9% 84-104 788-846 672-725 -0.8 -42 5
Rays 87.3 74.7 775 703 14.8% 14.9% 29.7% 77-97 748-803 676-729 -8.7 -27 54
Orioles 81.1 80.9 743 751 6.1% 8.2% 14.3% 71-91 716-770 723-778 15.1 130 -34
Blue Jays 73.6 88.4 678 746 2.8% 2.9% 5.7% 64-84 652-704 719-774 -11.4 -77 18
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Tigers 85.9 76.1 743 696 33.6% 5.6% 39.2% 76-96 715-770 670-723 4.9 -8 -47
Twins 85.4 76.6 762 720 34.8% 6.7% 41.5% 75-95 735-790 694-747 -8.6 -19 49
White Sox 81.5 80.6 713 722 18.5% 5.7% 24.2% 71-91 686-740 695-749 -6.6 -30 -23
Indians 74.2 87.8 721 782 8.2% 2.3% 10.4% 64-84 694-748 755-810 5.2 75 30
Royals 70.0 92.0 682 795 5.1% 1.8% 6.8% 60-80 656-708 767-823 3.0 6 -50
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 86.9 75.1 739 683 46.8% 3.8% 50.5% 77-97 711-766 657-709 -3.1 -48 -4
Athletics 84.3 77.7 681 644 34.6% 4.9% 39.4% 74-94 655-707 619-670 3.3 18 18
Angels 76.7 85.3 661 691 14.6% 2.4% 17.0% 67-87 635-687 665-718 -3.3 -20 -11
Mariners 69.5 92.5 639 749 4.1% 0.7% 4.8% 59-79 613-664 721-776 8.5 126 51
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 90.9 71.1 753 660 41.4% 12.1% 53.5% 81-101 726-781 634-686 -6.1 -19 20
Braves 88.8 73.2 753 678 33.1% 12.8% 45.9% 79-99 725-780 652-704 -2.2 15 49
Marlins 81.5 80.5 702 691 14.2% 6.8% 21.0% 72-92 675-728 664-717 1.5 -17 -26
Mets 78.0 84.0 749 774 7.3% 5.4% 12.7% 68-88 722-777 746-802 -1.0 93 122
Nationals 72.2 89.8 695 774 4.0% 2.4% 6.4% 62-82 668-721 746-802 3.2 40 32
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Reds 85.6 76.4 744 708 31.0% 7.8% 38.7% 76-96 716-771 682-735 -5.4 -46 23
Brewers 85.0 77.0 719 688 26.6% 7.7% 34.3% 75-95 692-746 662-714 8.0 -31 -116
Cardinals 81.6 80.4 755 745 20.2% 7.5% 27.6% 72-92 727-782 718-772 -4.4 19 104
Cubs 80.5 81.5 715 717 15.4% 6.7% 22.0% 71-91 688-741 690-743 5.5 30 -50
Pirates 71.9 90.1 694 775 5.9% 2.2% 8.1% 62-82 667-720 747-803 14.9 107 -91
Astros 64.0 98.0 587 741 1.0% 0.6% 1.6% 54-74 563-612 714-768 -12.0 -24 12
TM W L RS RA Div WC PL W Std RS Std RA Std W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Giants 87.9 74.1 709 649 39.8% 7.6% 47.3% 78-98 682-735 624-675 -4.1 12 66
Dodgers 82.5 79.5 670 662 22.0% 6.3% 28.3% 72-92 644-696 637-688 2.5 3 -30
Rockies 82.4 79.6 766 755 19.9% 7.0% 26.9% 72-92 738-793 727-782 -0.6 -4 38
Padres 80.8 81.2 679 687 13.8% 5.8% 19.6% 71-91 653-705 661-714 -9.2 14 106
Diamondbacks 70.6 91.4 643 728 4.6% 1.7% 6.2% 61-81 618-669 701-755 5.6 -70 -108

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

--Posted at 6:33 am by SG / 3 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

This is ... awesome.

Thanks, SG.

In addition to lacking internal consistency, the other issue with BJ projections is that they’re way optimistic on minor league players. This means teams with good farm systems, us, will look “better” here than they would otherwise, even accounting for the hitting/pitching inconsistency.

Speaking of prospects…FanGraphs put out their top 100 today.

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