Monday, March 28, 2011

The 2011 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Bill James Edition

Because we lost CHONE, I decided to add the Bill James projections this year.  These are available at Fangraphs.

The James projections aren’t looked at very favorably by most of the online baseball community, because they appear to be optimistic in comparison to all the other systems.  However, they’re optimistic for everyone, which means we can look at the relative differences in player and team projections as long as we account for the biggest issue I have with them. 

If you look at the hitter and pitcher projections, they’re just not internally consistent.  What does that mean?  Basically, the James projections predict an MLB that would hit for a collective line of around .275/.340/.450 on offense with pitching that would allow a collective line of .255/.320/.430.

Fortunately, running them through a simulator forces them to match up, which is why I included them here.  Here’s how the James projections look for 2011.

American League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	95.2	66.8	796	667	40.0%	19.8%	59.7%	85-105	768-824	641-692	6.2	-22	-77
Yankees	94.2	67.8	817	698	36.4%	20.4%	56.9%	84-104	788-846	672-725	-0.8	-42	5
Rays	87.3	74.7	775	703	14.8%	14.9%	29.7%	77-97	748-803	676-729	-8.7	-27	54
Orioles	81.1	80.9	743	751	6.1%	8.2%	14.3%	71-91	716-770	723-778	15.1	130	-34
Blue Jays	73.6	88.4	678	746	2.8%	2.9%	5.7%	64-84	652-704	719-774	-11.4	-77	18
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Tigers	85.9	76.1	743	696	33.6%	5.6%	39.2%	76-96	715-770	670-723	4.9	-8	-47
Twins	85.4	76.6	762	720	34.8%	6.7%	41.5%	75-95	735-790	694-747	-8.6	-19	49
White Sox	81.5	80.6	713	722	18.5%	5.7%	24.2%	71-91	686-740	695-749	-6.6	-30	-23
Indians	74.2	87.8	721	782	8.2%	2.3%	10.4%	64-84	694-748	755-810	5.2	75	30
Royals	70.0	92.0	682	795	5.1%	1.8%	6.8%	60-80	656-708	767-823	3.0	6	-50
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	86.9	75.1	739	683	46.8%	3.8%	50.5%	77-97	711-766	657-709	-3.1	-48	-4
Athletics	84.3	77.7	681	644	34.6%	4.9%	39.4%	74-94	655-707	619-670	3.3	18	18
Angels	76.7	85.3	661	691	14.6%	2.4%	17.0%	67-87	635-687	665-718	-3.3	-20	-11
Mariners	69.5	92.5	639	749	4.1%	0.7%	4.8%	59-79	613-664	721-776	8.5	126	51
National League
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	90.9	71.1	753	660	41.4%	12.1%	53.5%	81-101	726-781	634-686	-6.1	-19	20
Braves	88.8	73.2	753	678	33.1%	12.8%	45.9%	79-99	725-780	652-704	-2.2	15	49
Marlins	81.5	80.5	702	691	14.2%	6.8%	21.0%	72-92	675-728	664-717	1.5	-17	-26
Mets	78.0	84.0	749	774	7.3%	5.4%	12.7%	68-88	722-777	746-802	-1.0	93	122
Nationals	72.2	89.8	695	774	4.0%	2.4%	6.4%	62-82	668-721	746-802	3.2	40	32
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Reds	85.6	76.4	744	708	31.0%	7.8%	38.7%	76-96	716-771	682-735	-5.4	-46	23
Brewers	85.0	77.0	719	688	26.6%	7.7%	34.3%	75-95	692-746	662-714	8.0	-31	-116
Cardinals	81.6	80.4	755	745	20.2%	7.5%	27.6%	72-92	727-782	718-772	-4.4	19	104
Cubs	80.5	81.5	715	717	15.4%	6.7%	22.0%	71-91	688-741	690-743	5.5	30	-50
Pirates	71.9	90.1	694	775	5.9%	2.2%	8.1%	62-82	667-720	747-803	14.9	107	-91
Astros	64.0	98.0	587	741	1.0%	0.6%	1.6%	54-74	563-612	714-768	-12.0	-24	12
TM	W	L	RS	RA	Div	WC	PL	W Std	RS Std	RA Std	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Giants	87.9	74.1	709	649	39.8%	7.6%	47.3%	78-98	682-735	624-675	-4.1	12	66
Dodgers	82.5	79.5	670	662	22.0%	6.3%	28.3%	72-92	644-696	637-688	2.5	3	-30
Rockies	82.4	79.6	766	755	19.9%	7.0%	26.9%	72-92	738-793	727-782	-0.6	-4	38
Padres	80.8	81.2	679	687	13.8%	5.8%	19.6%	71-91	653-705	661-714	-9.2	14	106
Diamondbacks	70.6	91.4	643	728	4.6%	1.7%	6.2%	61-81	618-669	701-755	5.6	-70	-108

W: Projected 2011 wins
L: Projected 2011 losses
RS: Projected 2011 runs scored
RA: Projected 2011 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
PL: Playoff percentage (Div + WC)
W Std: Wins range within one standard deviation
RS Std: Runs scored within one standard deviation
RA Std: Runs allowed within one standard deviation
W+/-: 2011 projected wins minus 2010 actual wins
RS+/-: 2011 projected runs scored minus 2010 actual runs scored (positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2011 projected runs allowed minus 2010 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)

Here are the division title percentages in pie chart form.

Comments

---