The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Thursday, December 9, 2010

2011 CAIRO Projections v0.2

Based on the flurry of recent activity, I figured it was time for an update from CAIRO v0.1, so here it is.  Click the link in the preceding sentence if you want to know more about how CAIRO works.

2011 Cairo Projections 
Update: version 0.6 now available.

The only changes from v0.1 were moving players to their new teams where applicable up through today’s Rule 5 draft, and fixing a few players who weren’t listed at their correct position.

Since it came up at a site that was looking at the projections, the projection as shown is NOT projecting playing time.  It’s just a weighted average of the player’s past playing time with a slight downward adjustment for players older than 30.  When projecting 8000 professional ball players, manually adjusting their playing time is not something I (or any forecaster) wants to do.

At some point when rosters are more stable I may or may not work on depth charts, but for now feel free to adjust these projections based on whatever playing time you want to assume for any specific player. 

If I missed anyone or if anything looks weird let me know.

--Posted at 5:19 pm by SG / 61 Comments | - (0)


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This is not the first time that someone has put up a politically charged post and SG immediately changed the thread.  Just a coincidence, I’m sure.

SG has mad game.

You mean Cairo projection does not refer to the probabilty of Middle Eastern peace?

You mean Cairo projection does not refer to the probabilty of Middle Eastern peace?

The probability of Middle Eastern peace is now about the same as the Yankees’ probability of winning the AL East, so I guess it kind of does.

[3] I thought the debate was about 3rd or 4th place.

Are the Yankees on the Verge of Collapse?

Mal Hell, it was a happy day when you decided that you were wasting your time with whatever you were wasting your time with and you should spend your days posting at RLYW instead.

Thank you, Rabbi Frog the Hittite!

Mel’s got all the time in the world right now.  Another 20 years before he’s even eligible for parole.

[8] Please send cigarettes to Joliet State Penitentiary c/o Mel Hall, Prisoner #106 Career OPS+.  Please.

Yo, I have decided that I really really want this guy on our team, for Hanukkah and Christmas and Kwanzaa:

“[Russell] Martin was born in East York, Ontario (in the east end of Toronto).[2] He grew up in Chelsea, Quebec and lived in Paris, France from the age of 8-10.[1] Martin has an African Canadian father, Russell Martin Sr., and a white, French Canadian mother, singer and actress, Suzanne Jeanson. His parents separated when he was only two years old.[3] His father used to play saxophone in Montreal subway stations to help pay for his baseball training.[3] Along with playing baseball in the Montreal neighborhood of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, Martin played hockey for N.D.G Minor Hockey, where glimpses of his future all-star athleticism could be seen. He graduated from Polyvalente Édouard-Montpetit High School, which was the same high school attended by former teammate Éric Gagné.[3] After graduating from high school, Martin took a junior college scholarship at Chipola College in Marianna, Florida.”

Look, a guy like him would be wasted on the toxic cocktail of Brahmin superciliousness and Irish fuck you-ism that is Boston.  He’s perfect in NYC.

I’d like to see them get Martin, too, because I never want to see Posada squatting behind the plate or Cervelli with a bat in his hands again.

I never want to see Posada squatting, period.

[6] I guess I won’t be calling on you to clean up the mess in the What Cost Cliff Lee thread.

[12] Is that the one where you guys bickered over MH’s handle?  I enjoy reading the spats on this site, immensely. 

Mel Hall’s Handle
Mal Handel
Messiah Hell

[13] No, that’s the one where he called SSF a troll for disagreeing with him.

[14] I dispute your characterization of my interactions with SSF, but I don’t really care.  fwiw, I don’t think he cares all that much either.

I think the Yankees need to build lots more settlements if they’re going to win the AL east; LOTS!

Meh (Meh Hall).  We all have our bad days.  I believe I made an ironic remark about Don once.

It sounds like the countdown to the end of the news vacuum is drawing near.

[15] Whatever, troll.

I did a Sports Legends Revealed on Martin awhile back.

Pretty cute story (scroll down for Martin’s story).

[14] - I thought it was pretty obvious he wasn’t serious, just our normal snark.

I’m running into a lot of Russian today: “Myshka za koshku, koshka za Zhuchku, Zhuchka za vnuchku, vnuchka za babku, babka za dedku, dedka za repku, tyanut-potyanut—vytyanuli repku!”

Rilke, I can explain this for you, but seriously - what on Earth are you doing that you’re coming across this?

[9] - I see him as a BJ.  Those fans are irrational about other Canadians.

I see him as a BJ.

Do I want to understand this?

(Yes.  Yes I do.)

[20] Hoist by my own petard?

[21] Nice piece on Martin, Brian Cronin.  Did you ever interview him?


The Rangers have scheduled a press conference for 8pm ET.
Rangers co-owner Chuck Greenberg will be speaking in what should be an update on the club’s dealings with Cliff Lee. It could be anything.

[23] Reading chess commentary.  I saw that it’s a folk tale about a turnip.

[22] I was hoping so, hence my “let’s not overtease the friendly intruders” comment; but given the reply it seems pretty clearly to be somewhere between joking on the square and (the now apparently characteristic) poor taste/borderline trolling.  But whatever.

Rangers feel” good” about their chances.  At long last will our second long national nightmare after Jeter be over?

Seattle is going nowhere.
How about offering a ridiculous package of prospects for some pitcher they have?

[30] Thanks, but I’m good - anyway it’s just a tongue-twister, right?  The position that brought up the reference - well, actually it seems like a rather strained simile.

Not a tongue twister, more like the structure of “...that lived in the house that Jack built.”

[31] Given the fog of intangibles that had to be navigated during the negotiaitons, the Yankees actually did pretty well with Jeter’s contract.

In light of today’s threads:

1) SSF is one of us, even if he is not a Yankee fan. There are others as well, and we love them anyway.
2) Like some of us, he will have some views that cannot be rationally backed up.
3) We should all be more distrustful of our strongest held beliefs. They are a sign we have stopped thinking.
4) I still want rid of that Fat Cow Joba.

BRAR in cairo .2 looks fishy to me

1) Aw shucks!
2) The J Geils Band is wicked awesome!
3) unh… what? Was I saying something?
4) Interested in Josh Reddick?

For some reason, this thread makes me think of John McLaughlin when he was with Shakti.  Are you familiar with the piece “What need have I for this?  What need have I for that?  I am dancing at the feet of my lord.  All is bliss.  All is bliss.”  If not, it’s worth a listen.  SG gives us this early Christmas present in CAIRO v2 and in doing so reins in the political diatribe, and everyone else ups the wit to mid-season levels.  The hot stove is hot, mang.

[39] Tease.

[40]- On a scale of 0 to 10, 0 representing impossibility and 10 representing metaphysical certitude, what are the chances that someone other than me was thinking of the wrong John McLaughlin and wondering when he recorded something with Shakti?

When I first saw glanced at the post before I read it I though (or was hoping) it was going to be about John McClane.

Wait…who’s the other John McLaughlin?

Anyone seen the escalators in Jeter’s option. They seem reasonable to me:
For any year between 2011 to 2014 if he picks up the option
4m for an MVP
2m for places 2-6 in an MVP voting
1.5M for silverslugger (this one might hurt the most)
500k for GG, ALCSMVP, WSMVP.

If he does reach the 9M, I guess the contract probably paid for itself.

There is also 2M in defered money for each of the first 3 years, and the contract is structured as 15/16/17 (+3).
Honestly, doesn´t sound too bad. Given the market correction of this year, really not too bad.
I know a lot of people were afraid of the 4th year, but at a salary of 5M, It really doesn´t bother me all that much. If and when he gets to be horrible, fans will turn and he will sit.

Also,this offseason just made it possible that Arod´s contract will end up as just really, really bad, and not the monstruousity it was when he first signed.

If you had to bet, which contract will end up being the worse contract of all time?
Arod, Zito, Hampton, Howard, Soriano or Wells? I´d think it is Wells, but Arod does have the larger upside in the group.

Doesn’t it have to be Hampton?  All the others at least suited up.  Can Pavano get honorable mention?

[46] Well, Crawford’s not on that list and neither is Werth, and I’m betting that both of those guys are total wastes by the last 2 to 3 years of their deals. We were all correct to be skeptical of Crawford - once his stud defense and 45 steals turn into average defense and 20-25 steals, he’ll likely be a .280/.345/.440 LFer who is making ~$21M per year. That’s like a pre-injury Xavier Nady and a pinch runner.

Darren Dreifort?
Jason Schmidt?

[49] Total value of those 2 is less than 60m. I say they get beat pretty easely by any of the players in [46]. Rilke´s second favorite cause also cannot be that large of a mistake, just because of the total value of the deal.

I´m not sure CClite and Werth will be that bad. WAR/$ seems to be going up, and they are not bad players right now.

BRAR in cairo .2 looks fishy to me

Feel like elaborating?

SG, It looks as if the pitcher’s worksheet is just a duplicate of the hitter’s tab.  Any way you could update the spreadsheet to add in the pitchers?  I’d much appreciate it.

[38.4] No, but I hate* Papelbon less than Joba, and if he were our ate guy, we’d get to boo him like, 60 times a year. Win-Win.

*I hate Papelbon a lot.

SG, It looks as if the pitcher’s worksheet is just a duplicate of the hitter’s tab.  Any way you could update the spreadsheet to add in the pitchers?  I’d much appreciate it.

Weird.  OK, it’s fixed and uploaded.

SG, Thanks for the update.  I still think there are issues, but you’ve at least fixed them in practicality.  Rows 2079 downward are all hitters.  Columns Z outward seem to be hitter stats.  However, it looks as if all I need to do is just delete those excess rows/columns, so no big deal.

What shitty contract list could be complete without the guy who coined the phrase “Chan-Ho Park money”?

I guess I’d go with Hampton. I know you guys have a strong disdain for Pavano, but 4x$15m (right?) isn’t gonna kill most teams, certainly not the Yankees. Hampton and some of the others were team killers.

Darren Dreifort’s got to be in the running too, right?

“Rilke´s second favorite cause also cannot be that large of a mistake”

Have I pushed Pavano more than IPK and Mitre?  I guess it’s been a longer battle.

Actually probably my second favorite cause here has been uncertainty propagation and reporting.

Small nit-pick, but Alexei Ramirez is listed as a CF-2B for some reason.

Also, Aaron Hill is down as a SS, and Michael Young as 2B-SS, but again, I know those are nit-picks.  Thanks so much for publishing these.

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