The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, November 29, 2010

2011 CAIRO Projections v0.1

Here is the first set of CAIRO projections for 2011.  CAIRO is based on Tango Tiger’s Marcel, which uses the basic principles that most projection systems should use.  Those basic principles are:
1) Use a weighted average of a player’s recent performance as the primary basis of their progression
2) Understand that players tend to regress towards some mean when projecting going forward, so account for that
3) Ensure you account for a player’s age when projecting them.  Older players usually decline, younger players usually improve.

Despite its lack of complexity, Marcel’s shown itself to be about as accurate as even the best projection systems in most instances.

So why create another projection system?  There are things Marcel doesn’t account for which I feel are important.
1) Minor league performance is ignored by Marcel.  So CAIRO uses MLEs(major league equivalencies) as part of its projection.

2) Marcel doesn’t account for park or league.  A pitcher who pitched in San Diego for three years is going to have much better raw stats than a pitcher who pitched in Colorado even if he’s not actually a better pitcher.  Similarly, it doesn’t account for the fact that AL pitchers have to face a DH while NL pitchers get to sail by against people who shouldn’t even be in the batter’s box.  So CAIRO accounts for park and league (and defensive support that a pitcher gets)

3) Marcel does an overall aging for batters and pitchers, but component stats don’t age that way.  Some things improve and some things get worse at many different ages.  For example, A player’s walk rate tends to increase through their mid 30s, while triples tend to peak in their early 20s.  So CAIRO ages a player’s component stats individually.

4) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average for its regression towards the mean.  The truth is it is more accurate to identify a specific mean for a player and regress him towards that.  We shouldn’t necessarily regress a 37 year old SS towards league average, we should also account for the fact that he’s 37 AND a SS.  So a player’s mean in CAIRO incorporate age and position as well.

5) Marcel uses three years of data, but research shows four years of data (properly weighed) tends to be better.  So CAIRO includes 2007-2010 data in the 2011 projections.

In addition to all that, I prefer to do my own analysis to better understand stuff rather than just spouting off someone else’s numbers, and I like the fact that I can run my own projections whenever I want and not have to wait for someone else to publish theirs.

Also, if you create your own projection system you can rig it to make your favorite team look better.  Then you can pretend they’re going to win more games than they are, and apparently ignore the fact that you know that your entire system is built on a lie that’s not going to hold up. 

But I digress.

A few numbers have changed from the projections that I posted for the Yankees because of a couple of minor errors I found.  This was mostly on the defense and pitching side of things, but I don’t think it changed anyone’s value by more than a handful of runs. 

So here they are.  I should eventually add some other stuff like platoon splits, depth charts and projected standings. I’m sure there are still some bugs in here, so if anyone sees anything wonky or has any questions feel free to let me know.

Update: version 0.6 now available.

--Posted at 10:10 am by SG / 72 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Thanks a lot, SG.  I really appreciate the work. 

I noticed Randy Wells (Cubs) pitching stats aren’t included, but you have him as a position player, which he used to be in the minors.

Hmm, yeah it looks like I have his position wrong.  Javier Vazquez is missing too, I should post an update in a bit.

Jeter and A-Rod worth about the same offensively.  I wasn’t expecting that.  Is it time to worry about Teix yet?

Jeter and A-Rod worth about the same offensively.

Don’t let Close see this or his next counter-offer will be 10/275.

mmmm…statty for the hot-stove season.  I need me some warming up over here.

OK, update posted to include Wells and Vazquez.

Jeter and A-Rod worth about the same offensively.  I wasn’t expecting that.

It’s the 105 PA playing time advantage plus the position-adjustment.  Over 650 PA, Rodriguez projects to be worth about 25 runs more than Jeter would be (BR/650).

Sorry.  Jeter and Teix.  Not Jeter and A-Rod.

And I know position adjustment is a big part of that and Teix makes some up on defense but still.

Sorry.  Jeter and Teix.  Not Jeter and A-Rod.

So, Close and george s think Jeter is worth 8/180 then?

Hey SG, (in your first set at least), Adam La Roche is projected for 900+PA and 800 AB

[11] He’s combining Adam and Andy.  Which he can do.  If he wants.

Then you can pretend they’re going to win more games than they are, and apparently ignore the fact that you know that your entire system is built on a lie that’s not going to hold up.

You know, we’ll always have alskor to thank for this continuing joke.  We should send him something…

He’s combining Adam and Andy.

I suppose that’s one way to get a 3B who hits like a 1B…

[13] alskor was the sox troll at fangraphs who accused SG of rigging CAIRO to make Yankee projections to look better.  He was a tool who was roundly excoriated and ridiculed.

Ah, so he didn’t invent the internet.
Thanks.

[15] You’re thinking of a different alskor, who roomed with Tommy Lee Jones.

Hey SG, (in your first set at least), Adam La Roche is projected for 900+PA and 800 AB

I guess he’s a lock for MVP then, huh?

Either that or Mel’s got it right.  Somehow the A Laroche’s got combined.

I just looked at the projection for Jesus Monetro

508 PA .261/.326/.446

Thats good for 24 BRAR - tied with people like Hunter Pence and Jason Heyward for 73rd place in mlb.

As Mariano Rivera once said, “Not bad for a Rookie”

“As Mariano Rivera once said, ‘Not bad for a Rookie.’”


This made me laff.

This made me laff.

Took me a second to get it, but then I laughed too.

BTW, CAIRO seems lower than the other projections I’ve seen on Montero so far.

SG,

Looking at the spreadsheet two questions:

What league does NEU play in?  They don’t look they’re going to be very good this year?

Who is this Jeff Natale - projected at .272,.363.401 and 81/BR per 650 PA—for the Yankees at 2B?  And more important, can he play shortstop?

</blockquote>What league does NEU play in?  They don’t look they’re going to be very good this year?</blockquote>

NEU means neutral park/league.  It’s essentially the same thing as free agents, and they are generally players who aren’t very good since they’re not signed.

Who is this Jeff Natale - projected at .272,.363.401 and 81/BR per 650 PA—for the Yankees at 2B?  And more important, can he play shortstop?

He missed most of 2010 with an injury I think and was awful in his 28 PA (.182/.286/.227).  I’ll have to double-check his MLEs, although he seems to be a decent hitter (.296/.430/.443 career minor league line).  CAIRO must love that IsoD. 

That being said, he’s going to be 28 in 2011, and his defense is apparently sub-par at 2B so it’s not likely he’d be able to play even passable defense at SS.  Might be a useful RHB on a bench somewhere.

BTW, CAIRO seems lower than the other projections I’ve seen on Montero so far.

Maybe your projections assume he’s going to be on another team.  Otherwise CAIRO should have him higher than all the other projections, right?

Thanks again for this, SG.  So Adrian Gonzalez is second to Pujols in BR/650.  What happens when he straps on crimson pantyhose?  All other Al East teams forfeit the division?

Maybe your projections assume he’s going to be on another team.  Otherwise CAIRO should have him higher than all the other projections, right?

UNLESS SG is trying to depress his trade value so no other team offers something that will make the Yankees trade him.  Also, Jeter’s *real* projection is for 5 WAR in 2011, but SG is trying to help keep his contract down.  You can do ANYTHING when you control the source-code!

Also, there’s a fellow by the name of Adrian Sanchez in your pitching projections that plays for Washington.  At the spry age of 111, he’s projected to start about 10 games this season, God willing.

And WAS is listed as an AL team.

SG, a couple other things I noticed:

Ryan Braun seems to be missing.

Also, the projections for Torri Hunter seem pretty optimistic:

he’s basically the best OF in the projections behind Holliday (and maybe the missing Braun), and at age 36 CAIRO has him improving in basically every category.  (Holliday, age 30, is projected to hover right around the same numbers he put up last year.)

FWIW, here’s Hunter’s line:

R: 92   HR: 25 RBI:  97 SB:  16 AVG: .282

not outrageous, by any means, especially given his history, but it just struck me, considering his age.

Thanks so much for putting these up.  I love to have it at this time of year.

CAIRO might have to drink the reality potion.

[17] Future MVP Andy Laroche, aka Adam, elected free agency today, according to MLBTR.

25 He’s probably a roider

Looks like Ryan Theriot might be available…you know, so the Yankees can break in future Hall of Famer E. Nunez slowly.

If Yankees fans are anything like Cubs fans, and let’s hope they aren’t, Theriot would become a fan favorite instantly.  Ask the average Cubs fan who they want: Theriot or Alex Rodriguez and they’ll say Theriot.  Won’t even be close.  He’s a superstar in many Cubs fans minds.  Without him, according to them, the Cubs never win the division in 2007 or 2008.  To Theriot’s credit though, he did have a good 2008 season.  Unfortunately that was sandwiched around some pretty bad seasons.

Who chooses players to be on the ballot for the Hall of Fame?  BJ Surhoff?  Carlos Baerga?  Kirk Rueter?  I mean these guys are not completely stinky players but their careers are…average.  Do they just put anybody on who isn’t totally shitty so they can get a few votes?  As a sort of pat on the back?  Or is it to distract from the deserving players who aren’t gonna make it?

Theriot looks like he’ll be a solid backup infielder for the next 2 years at least. I’d like to offer him 3/$45M, but his agent is supposedly asking for 6/$150M.

Theriot was the first player to take the Cubs to an arbitration hearing since Mark Grace.  He’s greedy.

[33] His agent’s proposal is based on the quantification of Theriot’s intangibles, like goodwill and a French last name.

Rays close to trading Jason Bartlett.  I wonder with whom he’ll be peared, nyuk nyuk.

[33]  Well, you’ve gotta pay a sort of “Theriot premium” for things we can’t quantify from the basement, like Theriot shirt sales, and the Asian market.

[35]  Ha, we must be geniuses, we two.

[36]  Nope, one of us is not a genius.  But who?

Ryan Theriot is reminding me of another free agent, Derek Jeter.

[38] Mo said I’m the most intelligent imbecile he ever saw.

@keithlaw Tomorrow on the dish - a recipe for reality potion

OK, please explain the “Rookie” / “laff” thing.

Apparently the Rangers are pursuing Pettitte. Now they might just be trying to drive up his price, or hoping they can swipe him if the Yankees spend all their available payroll on Lee, Jeter, and Mo. Still don’t understand why they didn’t offer BattleCat arbitration to prevent this from happening.

[43] I always wondered why the Rangers and Astros didn’t go after Pettitte each year. They could offer him one thing the Yankees can’t - more time at home. I’m still confident, however, that he’ll be true to his word and pitch in New York or not at all.

Still don’t understand why they didn’t offer BattleCat arbitration to prevent this from happening.

Probably because they want him, but not at what an arbiter would give him.

[44] He made $11M last season, so what is the worst case scenario? $15M? The Rangers might offer him a enough to drive the Yankees to that price anyways. Arbitration would have prevented the Rangers from even considering it. (No way they spend that kind of cash AND give away their 1st round pick for one season of Pettitte)

All that said, it probably still is NY or retire. Especially if the Yankees sign Lee, thus making the Rangers non-contenders again, and keeping the Yankees as prohibitive favorites (well, behind the Red Sox, of course).

I think it’s a tacit admission by Texas that Lee will sign with the Yankees.

$15M?

Yes? Seems like the budget is tight with Rivera, Jeter, Lee and Pettitte all out there. Getting him back at $11M or $12M is probably a bigger deal than we realize.

Also, there’s a fellow by the name of Adrian Sanchez in your pitching projections that plays for Washington.  At the spry age of 111, he’s projected to start about 10 games this season, God willing.

Supercentenarians are the new market efficiency.

Ryan Braun seems to be missing.

Yeah, it probably thinks he’s the pitcher Ryan Z. Braun, I’ll check and fix it.

Also, the projections for Torri Hunter seem pretty optimistic:

I’ll double-check, something may be off in his data.  He probably shouldn’t be projected that high.

OK, please explain the “Rookie” / “laff” thing.

An alternate version of the infamous Taco Bell ad has Mo and Girardi in a scene after the dude gets pulled from Chalupa eating and that’s Mo’s line.

Thanks for the solid work, SG.

Could you drop Nick Adenhart from the pitching projections?

(Or, I could make a joke that his projections seem high, but prolly in poor taste.)

Yeesh, I thought I took him off.  Sorry about that.

Seems like the budget is tight with Rivera, Jeter, Lee and Pettitte all out there. Getting him back at $11M or $12M is probably a bigger deal than we realize.

I would rather have had them offer BattleCat arbitration and offer Jeter 3/41 if that $3M-$4M is that big of a deal. But I am not-so-secretively hoping their offer entices Jeter to walk since I think 09 was the outlier and 08/10 is what we should be expecting from him going forward. Plus, having the strongest rotation possible is more important in my mind than overpaying a 37 year old SS for multiple years. Than again, I am a cold-hearted cynic who thinks intangibles are almost worthless.

[52] Alright, forget everything I just typed. Well, except for the stuff about wanting Jeter to walk. If he were truly “Captain Intangibles” he would take a one year deal at market value to make sure the team could keep Pettitte and Mo, sign Lee, go after a LHP reliever, get a RHH OF for the bench, and maybe a decent UIF as Jeter/ARod old age insurance.

Didn’t ARod actually volunteer to have some of his salary deferred or something along those lines to try and make a trade from the Rangers to a contender (the Sawx at that time) fiscally possible?

$17M per for Mo?  Really Cash?  I’d love to see how he explains that one.  What is the highest AAV contract for a non Mo closer?  $12M?

Moose is still in the projections as well, but I like seeing him there.  Apparently he’d still be pretty valuable for an over 40 starting pitcher.  Although one can’t be sure if he’s put on 45 pounds or lost two fingers on his right hand in a tractor pull since retiring.

Yeah, I’m guessing Clemens is on here too.  I project everyone that played since 2007, but I thought I filtered out everyone who didn’t play in 2010.

having the strongest rotation possible is more important in my mind than overpaying a 37 year old SS for multiple years

This is completely ridiculous.

Jeter will only be 37 for one year of his 6 year contract. After that he’ll be 38, 39, 40, 41, and 42.

Sheesh.

My comments regarding Derek Jeter’s potential future age in [57] were merely intended as projections, not predictions.

He may well be over 45 next year, and while that would be an amazing outlier from normal aging, we’re talking about a HoF’er here and those are incredibly difficult to project.

Actually the plan is for Jeter to spend all his time off-field in a starlet spaceship at a gamma of a thousand so he doesn’t age during the course of his contract.

Oh, wait, that means he won’t get any rest at all and will break down sooner.

Speaking of alien mutant chicks from outer space, accellerated aging, and such. I was just sitting in my chair, minding my own business, when I stumbled across a commercial featuring the twisted rusty wreckage of Brooke Shields. Oh. My. Gawd.

Zombie Chic is not a good look AT ALL.

I think she’s almost old and worn out enough to make A-Rod’s list, though.

“He may well be over 45 next year”

“accelerated aging”

Oh, I thought you were talking about all those PS innings adding up.

SG, your projection for Brian Wilson looks odd. The projected strikeouts are way way down from 2008-2010 and his subpar K rate in 2007 is too small of a sample to point to as the main culprit for this strange projection. Is your aging curve steep at 29 or something? Any answers would help.

Also, you seem to be projecting Jonathan Sanchez as a reliever instead of a starter.

Yeah, it looks like both Wilson and Sanchez were not assigned the correct ids when I translated some of their stats and that screwed up both of their projections.  Ignore them for now and I’ll post an update later today.

[32] Anyone who has played at least 10 seasons in the majors AND has been retired for at least 5 years, goes on the ballot.  After that, any player who has received at least 5% of the vote the prior year, returns to the ballot the next year, unless elected (obviously), or have been on the ballot for 15 years.  I’m not sure how basketball and hockey work, but football is the one where a group of people get together and decide which players will go on the ballot.

In other news, lost another old time Yankee.  RIP Gil.

SG, since you asked if there players we’d like to have you project, I was hoping you could project Brett Jackson for the Cubs.  He’s very likely their top prospect and depending on injuries at the big league level this year, he could reach the majors early in the season. 

Thanks.

I don’t see Gaby Sanchez.  Is he missing from the data?

Hmm, not sure why Sanchez slipped through the cracks.  I’m posting v0.4 in a minute, he’ll be in there.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

NY Post: Joe Girardi out of options as Yankees’ ship sinks
(22 Comments - 8/21/2014 3:42:50 pm)

Yankees.com: Yankees Stink
(19 Comments - 8/21/2014 1:26:18 pm)

Astros (53-73) @ Yankees (63-60), Wednesday, August 20, 2014, 7:05pm
(51 Comments - 8/20/2014 11:17:01 pm)

Whatever
(18 Comments - 8/20/2014 6:19:08 pm)

Whatever
(104 Comments - 8/20/2014 7:05:25 am)

Astros (52-73) @ Yankees (63-59), Tuesday, August 19, 2014,  7:05pm
(94 Comments - 8/19/2014 11:41:08 pm)

North Jersey: Out on Castillo
(24 Comments - 8/19/2014 7:59:05 pm)

Newsday: Ambidextrous Pitcher Pat Venditte Hoping for His Call to the Majors
(6 Comments - 8/19/2014 7:56:25 pm)

NY Times: Thanks to Pitchers, Yankees Finish Trip on an Upbeat Note
(27 Comments - 8/19/2014 12:13:57 am)

Yankees.com: If At First You Don’t Succeed in Losing, Try, Try Again
(14 Comments - 8/18/2014 12:19:42 pm)