We are doomed.

You can see by the OBP of the rest of the team that keeping people like Austin Jackson, Don Kelly and Delmon Young off the bases in front of Cabrera is going to be imperative.

Good thing Leyland seems to like to bat his lowest OBP guys before him.

So what you’re saying is Tigers in three?

[1] Are the Yankees on the verge of collapse or is it yankeemonkey who is on the verge of collapse?

If the tigers decide to go w/ verlander on short rest, they’re probably down 2-1. 

I’m excited.  Not 2009 excited (that season was perfet for me, from beginning to end), but I’ve been on the Robertson bangwagon ever since he was a stud in my “MLB: The Show 2009” season.  I want to see Soriano, Robertson and Mo really stretched out (well, maybe Mo can’t anymore).  I’d consider bringing Robertson in first (late 6th, early 7th) and seeing how many outs he can get before he hits 20+ pitches.

[4] yankeemonkey is long past the verge mon ami.

Good news. Only one ESPN expert is picking the Yanks to go all the way. Given their track record well ... sorry about your impending first-round exit, Phily.

“the Robertson bangwagon”

If the wagon’s a-rockin’, don’t come a-knockin’?

Good news. Only one ESPN expert is picking the Yanks to go all the way. Given their track record well ... sorry about your impending first-round exit, Phily.

Those predictions mean that either St. Louis, Tampa or Arizona will win it all.

Those predictions mean that either St. Louis, Tampa or Arizona will win it all.

Matchups odds: Tampa/Arizona - 30/1, Tampa/St. Louis - 28/1.  You can make some money if that’s the case.

[6] Would it help if I shared my klonopins with you?

I’m still fairly giddy over the implosion of the best team evah, and the ongoing recriminations.  Also, being an old fart I actually put considerable value on regular season accomplishments.  Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy playoff baseball and I want the Yankees to win.  But it’s pretty much gravy to me at this point.

Asking an honest question here that I’m sure has been asked a dozen times before, but is this the best way to evaluate a series?  Wouldn’t computing the odds of winning each individual game based on lineups and playing time be more accurate or does doing an overall estimate like this do such a good job that the difference is insignificant?

For instance, does the huge advantage that the Tigers have in game 5 skew the overall odds more than it should because playing a game 5 at all is far less likely than playing any other game.

[12] You should be here in Boston right now, MC.  There’s up to the minute reporting on l’affaire Francoma.  Like it was actually important.

[12] Here MC, for you: http://www.boston.com/sports/hockey/bruins/gallery/05_17_10_heartbreaking_losses/

ESPN radio making it sound like Francona is gone

No mlb.tv postseason games in Denmark makes the baby Jesus cry.

Notes from the boston.com death watch.

Comment From Karl WelzeinKarl Welzein: ]
So, you think the media jumped the gun a little bit this morning with the “Tito is out” news? 
Friday September 30, 2011 2:22 Karl Welzein
2:23 Chad Finn: I don’t—Tito did tell his coaches yesterday he wouldn’t be back, and Ken Rosenthal, who had it first, is as credible as anyone. Maybe the Sox are giving him reason to reconsider, but I doubt it.

“The Yankees probably have the worst projected rotation in the postseason.”

What a shock. Thank god for the off-days in 2009.

[16] Which is totally bogus, right?  Epstein’s at fault if anyone is, far as I can tell.

[20] That’s right, but there is also a lot of scuttlebutt here about Francona coddling certain players, losing control of a clubhouse that has become somewhat factionalized and not sweating the details like he once did.  Who knows how much of it is true?

They hate Lackey here soooooo much.

[13] I think it’s probably close enough given how much work would be involved.  That is, you’d almost have to put in decision points.  For example the easy one - if they’re down 2-1, do they pitch Verlander on short rest?  If so and they win, is it still a huge difference between Fister and Nova (~ .8RA/9 difference instead of ~2!)?  Or do they roll the dice that Porcello can beat CC, and have the huge advantage of Verlander?

Basically, saying it’s a toss-up, slight advantage Yankees seems right…

John Lackey and Carl Crawford are in a sports bar near Fenway watching the Yankees.  OK all you screenwriters budding or otherwise what do people say to them?

[20] Here is an SI article on it.  They’re making it sound more mutual, and note that, “There were differences over how things were handled this season.”

Sounds maybe like a milder version of the Cashman/Torre fallout, no?  Or maybe, what the Cashman/Torre fallout would have been if Joe didn’t get that last extension.

reports circulating here that Sox pitchers drank beer during games on their off days.

Asking an honest question here that I’m sure has been asked a dozen times before, but is this the best way to evaluate a series?  Wouldn’t computing the odds of winning each individual game based on lineups and playing time be more accurate or does doing an overall estimate like this do such a good job that the difference is insignificant?

Well it is a preview.

Unless you know the lineups and pitchers that will be available for each game before they get there, I don’t see how fudging it based on starting pitcher matchups is going to be appreciably more accurate.

I think it’s more useful to look at the big picture, but there’s merit to a game-by-game approach as well.  I just feel it’s easier to allocate playing time at a series level than a game-by-game level.  If the Yankees use Robertson and Mo for two innings apiece tonight, doesn’t that change the odds for tomorrow’s game signficantly?

As the series moves forward then the game-by-game approach is probably better, since we’ll have a better idea of what players will be playing and what pitchers will be available.

Also, being an old fart I actually put considerable value on regular season accomplishments.  Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy playoff baseball and I want the Yankees to win.  But it’s pretty much gravy to me at this point.

I don’t think the Yankees are going to win the World Series, or even get there, so I’m with you.  This season’s been a success, simply for winning the division ahead of the best team ever.  I picked them to do it, but I didn’t fully believe they would.

[24] - Thank you.

or

Ped-droy-ah, go back to your tree and make me some cookies! (actually I’d just recite the entire video)

reports circulating here that Sox pitchers drank beer during games on their off days.

Beckett looked like he swallowed a keg during his time off.

24 :  to TSCC : “Hey, Lunchbox, you gonna eat all them fries ?”

reports circulating here that Sox pitchers drank beer during games on their off days

Oh, the horror.

This season’s been a success, simply for winning the division ahead of the best team ever.

Need to check your spelling, SG.

Daniel Bahd sucks wicked hahd.

USA Today:
“Now, specifics are starting to emerge behind these reasons, including this one: Red Sox pitchers drinking beer during games in which they didn’t pitch
  Players complaining about the caliber of bus service
  Francona calling a team meeting to talk about cohesion—after a game the Red Sox won 14-0
  Players letting their conditioning worsen, and not utilizing the club’s strength coach”

Need to check your spelling, SG.

Sorry, ever should read as evah.

Beats whomever found this site searching for this though.

“2011 natinal leauge playoffs”

[21] Fair enough.  If I weren’t a rabid Yankees fan, I might have thought Torre got shafted instead of v.v. based on the press’s CW.

“Hey, Lunchbox”

He’s built like a small fridge?  But not cool?

24 - “You guys really look like John Lackey and Carl Crawford, but I know they wouldn’t be fucking stupid enough to show their faces within 100 miles of Boston.”

I’m still fairly giddy over the implosion of the best team evah, and the ongoing recriminations.  Also, being an old fart I actually put considerable value on regular season accomplishments.  Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy playoff baseball and I want the Yankees to win.  But it’s pretty much gravy to me at this point.

Yes, I too am still wearing a smile regarding the implosion.  The only thing that could have made it better is if the Yankees themselves had actually dealt the deathblow to the Sox in game 162. 

The playoffs are sexy and all, but really the true test of a great team takes place over that six month span.  Sadly MLB is slowly moving away from a playoff format that more accurately determines a champion.  Doubt we ever get back to a 4 team, best of nine system…..

[24]  You ordered the meat loaf.
    The brisket’s really good here, only you’ll never know it.

36 Good one

24—I will personally drive you guys to Logan.

37 couldn’t have gone better.  Triple play, Rays comeback Tue.  Wed Rays unbelievable comeback, Golson baserunning blunder, Pap smear and Crawford misplay.

40 What is Boone the safe house?

[24] It would be a quiet scene in which the overwhelming silence and tangible discomfort force Lackey and Crawford to leave. At which point the bartender exclaims, quietly: “And stay out you fat fucks.”

Runner up in my head: Crawford and Lackey sit down at the bar.

Crawford: A beer for myself and my friend here.

Bartender: Sorry sir, dogs are not allowed at the bar. Please tie him up outside.

Actually Townies fans are not too swift in the upstairs department so the indie version would be like “you guys fucking suck.”

Sadly MLB is slowly moving away from a playoff format that more accurately determines a champion.

They certainly have been…but I do think the two wild cards with a single game play-in just before the ALDS will significantly help the team with the best record and disadvantage the wild card.

“will significantly help the team with the best record and disadvantage the wild card.”

At worst the WC victor burns their best pitcher, but that happens anyway if there’s a race.  And they lose a day of acclimation time.

“We play too many night games on getaway days and get into places at 4 in the morning,” Gonzalez told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. “This has been my toughest season physically because of that. We play a lot of night games on Sunday for television and that those things take a lot out of you.”

There’s now more incentive to win the division vs. being the wild card AND in having the best record overall.  Make those two wc teams travel to two cities in a row, on back to back days, burning their ace in that first game.  Also, I hope this means that best team can in fact play the WC winner.  Imagine the Yankees getting a completely run down boston or tampa opponent in the first round.  mmmmm.

[47] Quick, someone get the number for the waaaaaaaaaahhhhhmbulance.

[47] The quote actually gets worse…

“We play too many night games on getaway days and get into places at 4 in the morning. This has been my toughest season physically because of that. We play a lot of night games on Sunday for television and those things take a lot out of you.”

When the Globe’s Peter Abraham pointed out that both the Red Sox and Yankees, as high-profile teams, have long had these challenges in their schedules, Gonzalez replied, “Why does it have to be? They can put the Padres on ESPN, too. The schedule really hurt us. Nobody is really reporting that.”

I guess the new meme after “1st world problems” will be “big market problems”.  He wants the big payday on a big payroll team, but then doesn’t want to stay up past his bedtime.  Unreal.

A-Gone is simply melting under the bright lights.  So far he’s blamed

The Yankees
Injuries
God
ESPN

How about simply “We went 7-20”

I do think the two wild cards with a single game play-in just before the ALDS will significantly help the team with the best record and disadvantage the wild card.

Only if you let the wild card winner play the LDS against the winner of the same division, assuming that division winner has the best record.  And that, of course, is completely unfair no matter how much you think you’ve disadvantaged the wild card team, because proving yourself superior over the course of 162 games just means that you have to beat that team again over a smaller sample size.  At least the present system requires the WC to earn their way into an LCS matchup by winning more than one game.

But the real problem with the two wild card idea is that it will create the very thing it purports to prevent.  What is supposed to be an innovation that will create incentive for teams to play hard for division crowns and for best record instead would have given four teams reason to stop playing for the wild card this season, and set their pitching up for the play-in games instead.

EDIT: to put it more bluntly, the Yankees would not have gotten “completely run down boston or tampa opponent in the first round.”  They’d have gotten a Boston or Tampa team that didn’t have to worry about winning the last three games of the regular season and could have therefore rested everybody in preparation not only for playing the one game wild card round, but for winning that game and advancing.

Yeah, my view of Gonzalez was basically neutral before he came to Boston.  But it has really gone straight in the toilet the last few days.

Guess I should have seen it coming with his “ready to beat the Yankees” comment at his introduction press conference.  Plus the complaint about the strike zone when Mo rang him up a few weeks ago.

[52] Weren’t the Angels in it until almost the end?  And Boston and Tampa would have still been fighting to host the play in game.  Maybe they don’t go crazy (lester on short rest, paps with so many pitches), but they’d still be trying.

Boston would have finished the season on Wednesday in Baltimore.  Then flown down to Tampa on Thursday.  They would HAVE to use their ace in that sitaution (unless they are already burned out) and then flown up to NY for a Friday start.  That can’t be pleasant.  Especially for a softy like Agon.

How about cutting the Wild Card all together?  Then the two division winners with the worst records play in the 1 game play in?  Then and ALCS and a World Series.

I thought Agone was supposed to be the classy Townie or is that an oxymoron?

[55] You’d have to balance the schedules to make sure that the division leader w/ the most wins was the team most deserving of the bye.  OR do something crazy like count up total wins by the division (but that will wouldn’t work w/ the unbalanced divisions).  Imagine the Yankees needing the o’s to win inorder to clinch an “AL East was the best” bye. 

Of course, less playoff games is less money, so it’s a non starter.

Weren’t the Angels in it until almost the end?

Almost, but not quite.  To be precise, games 159-162 would have been meaningless in the National League, and games 161 and 162 would have been meaningless in the American.

And Boston and Tampa would have still been fighting to host the play in game.  Maybe they don’t go crazy (lester on short rest, paps with so many pitches), but they’d still be trying.

You seriously think that HFA for one game is something that teams will view as more important than rested #1 starter and bullpen for one game?  And rested #2 starter for LDS if they win the one game?

No way that you see any of Shields, Price, Beckett, Lester, Hudson, Carpenter, Garcia, etc pitching in any of those games.  And the position players and bullpens would have been getting rested too.

This is why trying to engineer these artificial incentives doesn’t work—because the artificial incentives pale in comparison to the things that really win baseball games.  HFA for the post-season was random until very recently, and while fans may have pissed and moaned about it, teams didn’t.  There’s a reason for that.

Since I’m not allowed to post stuff like this in the gamethread, I thought some might get a kick out of this.

Ouch.