Monday, April 12, 2010
2010 Opening Week In Review
If you trust the results of the Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are probably the three best teams in baseball. So starting the season by playing six games on the road against two of the three best teams in baseball had the potential to be pretty painful. Fortunately for us, the Yankees were up to the task, taking two of three from both of their rivals, enabling them to stay close to the Toronto juggernaut in the AL East.
Here’s a look at how the team performed statistically.
| Player | Team | Lg | Pos | G | AB | PA | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| Jorge Posada | Yankees | AL | C | 5 | 17 | 22 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .353 | .500 | .824 | .534 | 6.0 | 4.4 |
| Curtis Granderson | Yankees | AL | CF | 6 | 23 | 26 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .348 | .423 | .652 | .452 | 6.2 | 3.9 |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | AL | 2B | 6 | 25 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .360 | .370 | .680 | .428 | 5.2 | 2.9 |
| Nick Swisher | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 21 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .440 | .571 | .437 | 4.9 | 2.4 |
| Alex Rodriguez | Yankees | AL | 3B | 6 | 27 | 29 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .259 | .310 | .481 | .336 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Derek Jeter | Yankees | AL | SS | 6 | 28 | 30 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | .286 | .333 | .321 | .300 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| Francisco Cervelli | Yankees | AL | C | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .400 | .667 | .392 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Brett Gardner | Yankees | AL | LF | 5 | 17 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .294 | .368 | .294 | .313 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| Marcus Thames | Yankees | AL | LF | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .400 | .250 | .324 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Ramiro Pena | Yankees | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Randy Winn | Yankees | AL | RF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | -0.2 | -0.4 |
| Nick Johnson | Yankees | AL | DH | 6 | 22 | 30 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .367 | .182 | .294 | 2.5 | -0.9 |
| Mark Teixeira | Yankees | AL | 1B | 6 | 24 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .125 | .276 | .167 | .229 | 1.3 | -1.8 |
| Total | 62 | 213 | 249 | 58 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 34 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 2 | .272 | .369 | .451 | .360 | 36.7 | 13.9 |
BR: Batting runs using linear weights
BRAR: Position-adjusted BR above replacement level
At this point, Teixeira’s a sunk cost and the Yankees should probably just release him and eat his salary. How about that Posada kid though? And this Granderson fella can play a bit as well. On a slightly more serious note, the Yankees put up 36 runs in six games on the road against two of the better projected run prevention teams in the league, which bodes nicely for the offense going forward.
| Player | Team | Lg | Role | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | RA | ERA | FIP | RSAR |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 13.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 2.74 | 2.9 |
| Andy Pettitte | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 3.87 | 2.7 |
| Mariano Rivera | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.87 | 1.7 |
| A.J. Burnett | Yankees | AL | SP | 2 | 2 | 12.0 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 4.50 | 3.75 | 4.53 | 1.3 |
| Alfredo Aceves | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.20 | 1.1 |
| David Robertson | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 1.1 |
| Sergio Mitre | Yankees | AL | RP | 1 | 0 | 2.3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 2.34 | 0.3 |
| Damaso Marte | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.20 | 0.2 |
| Joba Chamberlain | Yankees | AL | RP | 3 | 0 | 3.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 3.20 | -0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | Yankees | AL | RP | 2 | 0 | 3.7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7.36 | 4.91 | 5.65 | -0.9 |
| Javier Vazquez | Yankees | AL | SP | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12.71 | 12.71 | 7.61 | -4.5 |
| Total | 21 | 6 | 53 | 49 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 18 | 34 | 4.42 | 4.08 | 3.92 | 5.5 |
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement level.
Yay Battlecat! And if you need further proof about how foolish it was to put Joba in the rotation, look at how dominant he’s been as a reliever so far. I don’t care about sample size, he’s clearly the Joba of old again. Vindication for the JSPTE crowd!
UZR is not yet available for 2010, but here’s how the team performed this past week according to zone rating.
| Player | Tm | Lg | Pos | G | GS | CH | INN | PO | A | E | DP | ZR | PM | Avg ZR | AvgPM | Diff | RS |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | AL | 3B | 6 | 6 | 19 | 52 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 3 | .947 | 18 | .826 | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| Granderson, Curtis | NYY | AL | CF | 6 | 6 | 26 | 53 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .923 | 24 | .881 | 23 | 1 | 1 |
| Teixeira, Mark | NYY | AL | 1B | 6 | 6 | 13 | 53 | 57 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1.000 | 13 | .943 | 12 | 1 | 1 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYY | AL | LF | 5 | 4 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .889 | 8 | .858 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | AL | 3B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .826 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Winn, Randy | NYY | AL | RF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 1 | .867 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | AL | RF | 6 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .833 | 5 | .867 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Thames, Marcus | NYY | AL | LF | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .667 | 2 | .858 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | AL | SS | 6 | 6 | 14 | 53 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 3 | .643 | 9 | .849 | 12 | -3 | -2 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | AL | 2B | 6 | 6 | 24 | 53 | 11 | 20 | 0 | 5 | .708 | 17 | .831 | 20 | -3 | -2 |
G: Games
GS: Games Started
CH: Playable Chances
INN: Defensive Innings at Position
PO: Putouts
A: Assists
E: Errors
DP: Double Plays
ZR: Zone Rating (PM/Ch)
PM: Plays Made
Avg ZR: ZR by average defender at the same position and in the same league
AvgPM: Estimated Plays Made over the same # of chances by an average defender
Diff: Difference between PM and AvgPM
RS: Runs Saved
Standard caveats about limitations of fielding metrics and sample size apply as always. At this point just one missed play can have a huge impact on a player’s RS total, so don’t make too much of these numbers yet, although I’ve been very pleased with Rodriguez’s defense at third so far. His hip doesn’t seem to be an issue in terms of his lateral range to this point.
For the hell of it, here’s how zone rating has all 30 MLB teams ranked (does not include catchers).
| TM | POS | Ch | PM | Diff | RS |
| Det | Total | 106 | 98 | 7 | 6 |
| Cle | Total | 100 | 92 | 6 | 5 |
| Fla | Total | 104 | 91 | 4 | 3 |
| StL | Total | 103 | 88 | 3 | 3 |
| Mil | Total | 101 | 87 | 3 | 3 |
| Atl | Total | 111 | 95 | 3 | 2 |
| Was | Total | 107 | 92 | 3 | 2 |
| SD | Total | 105 | 89 | 2 | 1 |
| Cin | Total | 107 | 91 | 1 | 1 |
| Oak | Total | 113 | 98 | 1 | 1 |
| Sea | Total | 130 | 113 | 1 | 1 |
| NYM | Total | 117 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Tor | Total | 99 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| ChC | Total | 98 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| Bos | Total | 121 | 104 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | Total | 114 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| Min | Total | 124 | 106 | 0 | 0 |
| LAA | Total | 132 | 113 | 0 | 0 |
| Col | Total | 105 | 85 | -1 | -1 |
| NYY | Total | 116 | 98 | -2 | -1 |
| LA | Total | 95 | 76 | -2 | -1 |
| Bal | Total | 96 | 81 | -2 | -2 |
| Phi | Total | 106 | 86 | -2 | -2 |
| Ari | Total | 110 | 89 | -2 | -2 |
| SF | Total | 114 | 92 | -2 | -2 |
| TB | Total | 115 | 96 | -3 | -3 |
| Hou | Total | 120 | 97 | -4 | -3 |
| CWS | Total | 107 | 88 | -4 | -3 |
| Tex | Total | 91 | 74 | -4 | -3 |
| Pit | Total | 118 | 91 | -7 | -5 |
Shouldn’t the Red Sox be around +10 by now? Peter Gammons told me they were going to be historically great defensively.
When we looked at the April expectations using log 5, we saw that the Yankees would have been estimated to go 1.4 - 1.6 versus Boston and 1.5 and 1.5 versus Tampa Bay(and yes, I know you can’t win .4 or .5 or .6 games). That means they’d have been expected to be 2.94 - 3.06 after six games. All that means is they’re a game ahead of where we’d have put them, so we’d have to consider opening week a success.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL | aW | aL | caW | caL | W+/- |
| 4-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -0.48 |
| 6-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.03 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 |
| 7-Apr | @Boston Red Sox | 0.48 | 0.52 | 1.45 | 1.55 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.55 |
| 9-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.95 | 2.05 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 |
| 10-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.44 | 2.56 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.56 |
| 11-Apr | @Tampa Bay Rays | 0.50 | 0.50 | 2.94 | 3.06 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.06 |
xW/L: Expected wins/losses using log 5
cxW/L: Cumulative expected wins/losses using log 5
aW/L: Actual wins/losses for games played
caW/L: Cumulative ctual wins/losses for games played
W+/-: caW - cxW. Negative means behind pace, positive means ahead of pace
So now it’s on to a six game home stand against the Orange County Angels and the Texas Rangers.
| date | game | xW | xL | cxW | cxL |
| 13-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 3.59 | 3.41 |
| 14-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.23 | 3.77 |
| 15-Apr | vs. Los Angeles Angels | 0.65 | 0.35 | 4.88 | 4.12 |
| 16-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 5.49 | 4.51 |
| 17-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.09 | 4.91 |
| 18-Apr | vs. Texas Rangers | 0.61 | 0.39 | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| total | 3.78 | 2.22 |
Log 5 would tell you that the Yankees should go 3.78 - 2.22 on this homestand, but they’ll get swept by the Angels, which is going to make that impossible. So I guess it’s good they’ve got a game in the bank.
Comments
In “real life” runs allowed, Thames is about -5 though. I don’t see why he’d play ever over Gardner, or even Winn.
I had assumed Girardi would give Gardner at least a month full-time to see how he hit. Pretty surprised by the early platoon.
And Vazquez, sadly, looked just like I remembered him (SSS I know).
Since there’s a new thread I put this here ![]()
On the Burrell slide (which I didn’t see), Teix seems to have gotten over it:
“He apologized,” Teixeira said. “He said he was trying to get the ball to hit him and he knew it looked bad. That shows a lot of class on his part.”
Nice opening series for the Yanks. I’d be quite happy with 4-2 on the homestand as well. They need to play well at home, as those Blue Jays look to be a juggernaught.
edit: I didn’t even read this post when I put up this comment, and it seems I used the same term as SG. Great minds and all that…
Thames certainly has sucked, but I am not at all surprised by the early platoon. Better to find out if the guy is going to be at all useful now, and get the inevitable DFA out of the way early if need be.
It’s way too easy to say this and way too small a sample to support it, but Vazquez really did look like a guy who just can’t pitch from the stretch at all, didn’t he?
If Burrell was trying to get the ball to hit him, he needed to move about ten more feet to his left. The throw was coming from center field, after all, not shortstop.
An annoying thing (for me) about Toronto is that, unlike last year’s team, no one thinks that the Blue Jays will actually be in the running for first in the AL East, not even their fans.
The annoying part is that I have friends who are Blue Jays fans, and it was fun to tease them last year about their confidence in their team (remember when they were in first place early in the season but without having played the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays?). Now I can’t even do that, as not even THEY think that the Jays will stay in it.
“It’s way too easy to say this and way too small a sample to support it, but Vazquez really did look like a guy who just can’t pitch from the stretch at all, didn’t he?”
Yup. Looked like he was throwing meatballs.
I forget who was on base 2 outs, but I was screaming in my head, go to the windup, let them steal, just get the out.
although I’ve been very pleased with Rodriguez’s defense at third so far
Me too. Definitely SSS, but he’s looked very good at 3rd. Seems to be getting a lot of chances too.
That was a really nice roadtrip.
The numbers support Vazguez sucking from the stretch. This is why he has “one big inning” or whatever. Pretty amazing, considering he manages to be an average to well above average pitcher despite sucking from the stretch. At this point in his career it’s almost certainly wishful thinking on my part, but I hope Eiland or someone else can work some magic and figure out how to fix it (or at least make an improvement).
I feel bad for Nick Johnson, who has hit about 5 line drives that have been caught.
Tex just sucks in April. Accept, move on.
I like what I’m seeing from Robbie Cano offensively. Could be a BIG year.
Granderson - I like. Looks pretty bad vs LHP (expected), but I don’t really care.
Jeter looks off. He hits a lot of grounders normally, but right now it seems like every single BIP is a grounder.
My favorite PA of the season so far ended in a groundout to short. Swisher v. Okajima. 11 pitches, starting at 0-2, IIRC. Bravo, Nick.
Posada and BattleCat - NOT DEAD YET. Lookin’ mighty good, in fact.
CC and AJ look fine.
ARod - hip looking just fine. What a play to keep the no-hitter intact (for then).
Thames - sucks, and hopefully this spot will be upgraded at some point.
Mo - Mo.
Robertson - more, please.
Park - a little bit ‘o this, a little bit ‘o that.
Marte - hard to say
Joba - see Park
Aceves - mancrush
I’m excited for HughestheStarter, take 2.
What’s with all the off days to begin the season? Why do the Yankees need a day to travel between Boston and Tampa and Tampa and NYC?
6 games played, 3 days off. What is this, the playoffs?
Vindication for the JSPTE crowd!
I like the acronym, just rolls off my tongue, but how is it expanded?
J - Joba?
SP - ?
TE - Teh Eighth?
In addition to having a win “in the bank” the good start also means that both the Sox and Rays have lost a half game from the bank.
I assume should pitch?
At this point in his career it’s almost certainly wishful thinking on my part, but I hope Eiland or someone else can work some magic and figure out how to fix it (or at least make an improvement).
Well, he did make one decent pitch after what appeared to be a “screw the slide step and get the batter” visit. Maybe that’s a start.
I assume should pitch?
Right. Joba Should Pitch Teh Eight.
And I’m willing to give Thames a little slack. It’s not like he’s blocking some potential righty masher on the farm, although Jorge Vazquez could be interesting if he could be spotted in the OF a bit.
I’m surprised that it’s Thames rather than Winn who is getting the RH at bats in LF. IIRC, when he was signed, it was widely reported that Winn would compete for the LF job, and that Thames wouldn’t play much LF because…he’s awful there. Both were bad offensively in ST, yet for some reason Thames has apparently moved ahead of Winn.
I view it as giving Girardi slack, because I think Gardner should play everyday until he proves he can’t, but I would hope that Thames wouldn’t play LF on turf anymore.
Shouldn’t it be JSPTA?
It seems like Girardi prefers saving Winn to take out Swisher late for defense instead of starting him at all, which I’m not sure is optimal but that’s what it looks like.
RE: Thames
I think he has value as a pinch hitter, but I don’t think he should be starting games over Gardner until TSBG proves inadequate. Even then, I don’t think his bat is so valuable that it makes up for his terrible defense for 6-7 innings and 3 ABs at the bottom of the lineup (where Gardner does more damage if he gets on base anyway).
I hope the clause in Randy Winn’s contract for ABs vs. LHP is not something that is a motivational factor for starting Thames instead of him. I can’t imagine the Yankees being THAT frugal, but this budget talk and some of the moves (Gaudin for example) leave me wondering.
Now that it has been mentioned, I agree that finding out if Thames is a worthwhile investment now is better than learning that he isn’t in September. There might not be a viable alternative in the minors as SG notes, but I am quite sure that there are better options available via free agency or trade.
“It seems like Girardi prefers saving Winn to take out Swisher late for defense instead of starting him at all, which I’m not sure is optimal but that’s what it looks like. “
But if Winn starts, then Gardner is on the bench, and you can still sub for Swisher (which I view as unecessary) late. Just put Gardner in LF and move Winn to RF. Or, if you give Granderson a day off, he moves to CF, Gardner moves from CF to LF and Winn moves from LF to RF.
“finding out if Thames is a worthwhile investment now is better than learning that he isn’t in September”
Can one find this out even by then, given the available stats?
I agree that finding out if Thames is a worthwhile investment now is better…
Well, I’m glad that somebody agrees. It just seems so obvious to me that this is all about getting Thames enough PA in the early going to be comfortable deciding whether he’s worth keeping around. They know what they have in Gardner. They know what they have in Winn. Barring injury, those guys are on the roster all season and will play a helluva lot more than Thames when all is said and done. OTOH, they need to find out what Thames has left (if anything). And you don’t find that out with him sitting on the bench.
Can one find this out even by then, given the available stats?
One can certainly find out whether he’s giving you good at-bats. One has already found out that he shouldn’t be expected to make anything other than the most routine plays in the OF. Decisions can’t always be purely stats-based.
“OTOH, they need to find out what Thames has left (if anything).”
That makes sense, I guess, but I just don’t care.
We know from his past that Thames is at best a league average hitter who can’t field. If Gardner gets hurt, or sucks, he’s not an adequate replacement. Even as a “lefty killer” there’s no one you’re going to pinch hit him for in the regular lineup. I just don’t see his roll on the team.
What they really need is a backup 3B who can hit a little, so they can DH Arod for rest w/o starting Pena too much.
Can one find this out even by then, given the available stats?
Probably not statistically, but they can look for physical indicators that he is at the end of the line, like bat speed, contact rate, stuff like that I guess.
What they really need is a backup 3B who can hit a little, so they can DH Arod for rest w/o starting Pena too much.
I think Kevin Russo can be that guy, keep an eye on him in SWB.
“I think Kevin Russo can be that guy, keep an eye on him in SWB. “
That would be nice. Can he play an adequate 3B?
We know from his past that Thames is at best a league average hitter who can’t field.
So that’s worth what over 160 games, 1 WAR? It’s a $4M value they’re paying less than $1M for. Over the last 3 years he’s also got an OPS of I think (closed the window don’t feel like opening it again) of .867 against lefties. It’s hard to have league-average backups while also having AS at virtually every positino.
I feel confident that if Thames hits, he’s helping the team. And if he doesn’t hit, he won’t be here long.
I think Kevin Russo can be that guy, keep an eye on him in SWB.
Sure, I think Russo would be about league-average (offense+defense) as a 3B or 2B right now. The concern is Russo at SS, plus the fact that Pena is still a better defender than Russo AND faster. I believe if ARod or Cano go down Russo will be up.
That would be nice. Can he play an adequate 3B?
I think he’s mostly played 2B, but he supposedly has the arm for 3B and they’ve used him all around the IF and OF some. He’s already 25, so he’s not likely to get a lot better, but he seems like he could possibly put up a league average OBP if given a chance. Doesn’t seem like he’s much of a power hitter, but in this lineup not making outs is more important than getting XBH.
“One can certainly find out whether he’s giving you good at-bats.”
That’s not all that predictive, is it? Bat speed and contact rate might be depressed by a slump, or maybe in a short tryout he’ll overswing but get lucky.
[25] Here I thought everyone read my SWB Yankees recaps.
I would give you the link to his Totalzone numbers at MinorLeagueSplits, but the data isn’t in the URL so you can look him up. SSS all, but he’s basically average at both 2nd and 3rd - last year he looks really bad at 2nd in SWB, but 1/3rd of a season seems like a fluke. IIRC, Jennings had some comments that Russo just seemed to be making a lot of errors, and that was unusual.
SG has it right, and I do believe he has plenty of arm. Not ARod arm, but I think he’ll make all the throws you’d *expect* a 3B to make. Just not the specatcular ones. SG is right about the power, but from seeing him I think he has some gap-power. He’s not going to put many balls over the fence, but he’ll get a few. He can smoke some LD into the gaps though for doubles and has enough speed to leg out the occasional triple.
From my POV, Russo isn’t the player that will make the Yankees consider moving ARod off of 3rd. But if ARod (or Cano) were to miss 2-3 months, Russo should be good enough that the Yankees won’t feel pressure to trade for a replacement. Other than the usual, “must win division, get extra .25 wins at any cost”, pressure.
That’s not all that predictive, is it? Bat speed and contact rate might be depressed by a slump, or maybe in a short tryout he’ll overswing but get lucky.
I actually think contact rate stabilizes pretty quickly, at least I seem to recall reading studies about that. But yeah, in a slump you may think you’re seeing things that aren’t necessarily predictive, just like we went through all those times when people were convinced Jason Giambi ‘looks finished’.
I think what’s more likely is that the Yankees probably don’t expect much from Thames but are hoping to catch a lucky hot streak until something better comes available at a price they’re willing to pay.
[28] I think the idea is after a month or so you take your best guess based on the data available. Which would include his projections, his YTD performance, AND the scouting reports on him. Most of the projection systems seem to have him at a wOBA of around .330. For a bench-player with a decent career split against lefties I think that is fine. So in the first 4-6 weeks, do the numbers back up a .330 wOBA? Do the scouting reports? If yes, keep him. If no, see if you have a better replacement.
Edit: Damn you SG and your quick responses!
“So that’s worth what over 160 games, 1 WAR? It’s a $4M value they’re paying less than $1M for. Over the last 3 years he’s also got an OPS of I think (closed the window don’t feel like opening it again) of .867 against lefties. It’s hard to have league-average backups while also having AS at virtually every positino.
I feel confident that if Thames hits, he’s helping the team. And if he doesn’t hit, he won’t be here long.”
I’d think with the positional adjustment for LF, and the poor defense, Thames is replacement level. He’s only an average hitter b/c he see a disproportionate number of LHP, he’d be worse if he played every day. In any case, an average hitting DH is replacement level, I’d guess a ~-10 LF is the same.
I just don’t see any situation where I’d rather have him in LF over Gardner, or Winn. Whatever the bat adds, the glove takes away.
damn my work for a slow response!
I also remember that contact rate stabilizes quickly, along with per pitch stats and strikeout rate, so that’s where I would start if I were trying to make a DFA-watch statistic. If slumps exist (ie, slumps aren’t just normal random fluctuation) then it would be harder to do anything.
We know from his past that Thames is at best a league average hitter who can’t field. If Gardner gets hurt, or sucks, he’s not an adequate replacement. Even as a “lefty killer” there’s no one you’re going to pinch hit him for in the regular lineup. I just don’t see his roll on the team.
Then you should be happy that they’re getting his 60 PA out of the way quickly.
And BTW, since everybody seems to find it essential to carry at least 12 pitchers, wouldn’t you think that teams would try to groom more guys for super-utility roles? I’m pretty sure that Kevin Russo and Ramiro Pena are better defensive OFers than Marcus Thames right now, and should be able to improve further with experience. I don’t think that Russo will forget how to play second or third in a couple of months. I’d have him playing corner OF in SWB every day.
[35] Yeah, it would sure be nice if after April is over the Yankees have enough confidence in their rotation AND bullpen that they feel they can get down to 11. Hopefully by trading Mitre (+) for Shawn Kemp or something similar. Then they could have Russo AND Thames. Won’t happen…
Yankees have actually built up some OF depth in AAA. None of it (beyond Curtis) is actually “talent”, but you want them playing. There isn’t any reason that Russo can’t play the OF once a week though. Unless of course Russo’s purpose right now is to build up trade value, which it is debateable if he would have more trade value as an every day 3B or a super-utility.
I’d think with the positional adjustment for LF, and the poor defense, Thames is replacement level.
Perhaps I should have just quoted CHONE or something, which has him at .5 WAR in about a half-season. As a bench player that’s fine; so Yankees are trying to figure out if he can be a little better with correct usage, or if he can’t even do that.
[36] You mean Mitre for Pujols, right?
“Hopefully by trading Mitre (+) for Shawn Kemp or something similar. “
They could probably get Shawn Kemp for Mitre straight up. But, I’m not sure where the Yankees are going to do with a retired and overweight center.
Derrick Coleman is also looking for work
They could probably get Shawn Kemp for Mitre straight up.
Shawn, Matt, po-tay-to, po-tah-to.
[39] po-tay-to, to-mah-to.
[40] Exactly!
Wow, that was powerfully funny.
That was hilarious. I like the way he holds it, with barely a smirk: “What? You think that’s funny?” I want to know who’s dying laughing off camera, too. I’m afraid that Chop has gone very far up in my estimation.
Wow. The Twinks are opening up their new stadium with Carly P? There you have it, I guess.
[42] I can’t tell whether he’s being deadpan or totally serious. I mean, of course it is a serious subject, but I’m not sure if he sees what I will call the Inherent American Humor in that short conversation.
“Carly P”
?
Pavano.
The “y” here is to feminize the name? Thumb down if so.
So the new Twins park looks pretty nice. I’m glad it isn’t another retro-job.
[42] Perhaps the best thing about that video is that the 1st related video that comes up is titled “Chan Ho Park sprays crowd”
[48] No, not really. That would have been Carla, no?
So the Minnesota game feed has the default pitch-by-pitch view from the high-centerfield camera, with the plate straight on. I like this perspective more and more…the feel of the strikezone is just much better.
[48] Expanding on it, it was more in line with the lame pop-star ideal to have one’s name be a sing-song combo of diminutives, like P-Diddy or J-Lo or other such nonsense. Which I well realize is also lame, but intentionally so…because, Carl…is so…lame, he just sort of fizzles in every respect, no?
[51/2] Not that I care, but: “Carly” means “Carly Simon” to me, faute d’autre; “Carlo P” would be as sing-songy, as would “C-vano”; Pavano put up a 4.00 (3.96) FIP (xFIP) in 199.1 IP last year - a 3.7 WAR according to fangraphs.
Pavano’s one game this year, fwiw: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 HBP, 6 K.
Ooh, Carlo P is much better. C Vano, too. Those are definitely names appropriate for a 3.7 WAR kind of guy.
[53] I don’t care what the numbers say about Pavano. He sucks. Same with Marco Scutaro. I’m as into quantitative analysis as the next fellow, but there’s a time for objectivity and a time for subjectivity, which time, in my opinion, is now.
Hang on…we’re suddenly respecting Carl Pavano?
[57] NO.
The best part was definitely Mo chuckling in the background.
Pavano sucks.
What’s with all the off days to begin the season? Why do the Yankees need a day to travel between Boston and Tampa and Tampa and NYC?
6 games played, 3 days off.
I thought this statement was backward looking, had no idea it applied for today. What the Veras is going on?
[57] Dunno about “suddenly” or “we”, but I’ve been arguing for a long time here that he’s a talented pitcher who had some injury problems (some standard, some just freaky bad luck), wasn’t handled or treated well by the team, is a poor advocate for himself, and likely to do well if healthy. I predicted here before last season that he’d have a good 2009. I don’t have a position on whether he’s a good person or not.
[61] rilke loves Pa-VA-no, rilke loves Pa-VA-no…
I don’t know why, but I’m reminding myself of the Simpsons when Lisa goes vegetarian. Janie (?) asks her if she’s going to marry a carrot, and Lisa resignedly says, “Yes, I’m going to marry a carrot.” Whereupon Sherri and Terri say, “She admitted it!”
Wow, I just looked at Delmon Young’s gameday picture. He has REALLY slimmed.
[62] - You don’t win friends with salad.
[62] I actually had the equivalent conversation about evolution as a fourth or fifth grader in the South - “Yes, we come from little bugs” or something similar. Haven’t thought about that in decades.
[65] Hang on…so now you’re calling all of us a bunch of flat-earthers?
[66] Meat is murder.
So Rilkekind asks stuff like, “Why does the lion want to eat the zebra?”, and I answer, “Because lions eat meat, so they think meat is yummy, and zebras are made of meat.” I’m beginning to sound to myself like a Vonnegut narrator.
[66] That’s stupid. Everyone knows the Earth is a sphere. We walk around on the interior surface and the sun, moon, and stars float in the middle.
[68] I though HALO was based in reality. Shit, I’ve gotta go rethink a bunch of stuff.
[67] You watching “Life”? Some eating my daughter is okay with, some not. Like when the komodo dragons stalked and killed the ox, she didn’t want that at all.
Pavano is a decent pitcher. There were an almost incredible confluence of factors that ended up largely negating his entire Yankee tenure, but I wouldn’t underestimate his talent.
I wish a komodo dragon would eat Pavano.
I guess I’m one of the weirdos who doesn’t have a problem with Pavano, although I am slightly miffed that he didn’t lead us to a world series in 2008, that would have been even better than (on second thought) almost as good as Pavano starting on opening day in 2007.
There was a record 303 simultaneous visitors on April 1, 2010 at 2:00:18 pm.
Is 303 bigger than it was previously or did that statistic get reset?
[70] Gave up on tv a while ago with the exception of Joss Whedon, but I guess one of these days we’ll get into some nature stuff. Censoring the red in tooth and claw for now.
2 degrees of sep re- Mr. Pavano. The 1 degree’ers agree that he is in fact a total douche. Asshole to boot. Just sayin’
Is 303 bigger than it was previously or did that statistic get reset?
The old site shows a high of 234, but I’m not sure if the server crashing with Error 500s at a certain point of visitors makes that lower than it should be.
Nice work SG. Looks like Tex has to go. Too bad, nice looking glove but he’s cooked. Like teh Giambino in 05.
What’s with all the off days to begin the season? Why do the Yankees need a day to travel between Boston and Tampa and Tampa and NYC?
The Yankees didn’t need those days for travel. The Angels, however, did have to get from Oakland to New York. I don’t think you can make a team play a day game after traveling more than one time zone, and I’m pretty sure the Yankees didn’t want to open with a night game. The Rays just happened to have a game against another team last Thursday, and I doubt that a split double header got any serious consideration from the schedule-makers. The first off day last Monday was the result of starting a day earlier than everyone else.
“The 1 degree’ers”
Are these people whose intelligence and judgement I respect? Or the Joba-walks-like-an-8th-inning guy crowd?
I wonder if those 22kt gold baseball cards are truly collectable. Or if there’s any mojo in the buying of them…
must. resist. superstition. purchase. impulse.
[80] I think he meant the people who actually have had direct personal interaction with the subject, like team-mates, coaches, reporters, etc. You can decide for yourself how much respect to accord.
Personally, I’ve never much cared what sort of human being Pavano is. But I never quite got on board with all that not wanting the ball stuff. The guy did have surgery, after all, and he did try to hide an injury so that he wouldn’t miss a rehab start. OTOH, I don’t quite go along with the “don’t underestimate his talent” school, either. I don’t believe that he was ever going to be a stud, but with a bit better luck health-wise he could have been a solid innings-eating #4 type during his Yankee tenure.
OTOH, I don’t quite go along with the “don’t underestimate his talent” school, either. I don’t believe that he was ever going to be a stud, but with a bit better luck health-wise he could have been a solid innings-eating #4 type during his Yankee tenure.
By using those words, I didn’t mean to imply that he was or is ever going to be an ace, only that he can be a credible ML pitcher, possibly a #3 when healthy, a view which probably contrasts with those of some Yankee fans, who still believe that he sucks.
a view which probably contrasts with those of some Yankee fans, who still believe that he sucks
Given that those folks are likely to assert that he sucks even more because he had a decent season at a low cost while wearing different laundry last year, I just assume that they are referencing his character rather than his ability.
[75] Sorry to turn this into the kids thread, because who cares about kids? but anyway…
Tonight one of the DVR options on the Life series was “Hunters and Hunted,” which she picked over insects, fishes, and birds—even though I explained there would be eating. She liked it. I guess I’ve learned that higher on evolutionary chain eating lower on evolutionary chain=good, opposite=bad.
Still do not care about all your reasonableness about Pavano. The guy was bad, is bad, engenders bad, embodies bad, actively brought bad to New York, was a major player in the hedge funds that crippled this country’s financial system. What have you got? “FIP.” Meh. You Pavano fans can count your filthy lucre with John Henry and his ilk.
[82] Yeah, I got that - that’s what the Joba reference was to, Jeter and Posada and Co.
I don’t get the “underestimate” point. He just put up a 4 FIP, he’s projected to put up a bit worse than that this year - that’s a pretty awesome #4 by my lights. Our #3 was worth half a win less last year iirc.
And to be just slightly more thoughtful about Pavano, you do have to take into account what Old Thurm says—his teammates pretty obviously hated him. Subjective? Sure. But you don’t get a huge amount of candor out of athletes these days, it’s interesting when you do, and worth a little attention.
I guess I’ve learned that higher on evolutionary chain eating lower on evolutionary chain=good, opposite=bad.
Seems this is still going to leave the kid with some uncomfortable gray areas.
Anyway, what does she eat?
FTR, me eating anything wrapped in bacon = good.
[87] I know that’s Pete Abe used to “report” that, but do we actually know that it was a widely held view? Even assuming that it was, players want to play with players that can help them win. Obviously, if you can’t stay healthy you can’t do that. So I’m not sure that a negative sentiment by one’s teammates under those circumstances is all that damning.
He just put up a 4 FIP, he’s projected to put up a bit worse than that this year - that’s a pretty awesome #4 by my lights.
I think the issues WRT purely FIP-based WAR have been covered pretty extensively, but you’re certainly entitled to your own lights. Anyway, I’m not sure there’s much point to us arguing about where he falls on the better-than-a-#4-to-not-quite-a-#2 spectrum in this particular context since we’ve both been branded Pavano-lovers and should be showing some solidarity.
his teammates pretty obviously hated him
Like I said, I really don’t care if he was hated (and if so, whether he deserved to be). And I suspect that those team-mates wouldn’t have cared much that he was a prick if he’d been healthy enough to pitch with reasonable frequency and effectiveness.
[88] She likes chicken, and as far as I can tell, she gets that the cute chicken in the books is also the chicken she eats…we’ll see.
As for gray areas, isn’t this what the Pavano discussion is all about? It’s my job as a daddy to make sure she hates him to remove any awkward doubt.
Don’t teach your kid to hate. Just tell her that the dragons ate Pavano because he tastes like chicken.
Replacement level help desk
Replacement level blue ray salesperson
Replacement level nursery school
Replacement level off day apologist
Great to hear from everyone so far this season,
let’s go Yankees!
[90] But I don’t care whether he was hated either. The interesting thing is that they talked about it. Athletes understand that people get hurt, who better? The fact that they still undercut him is interesting. You didn’t get that with Giambi, or A-Rod, or say Knoblauch, or, er, Rondell White, who seemed like kind of a puss to me.
[92] Ah, MC, I understand where you’re coming from. And it’s beautiful and reasonable. Everything in theory I espouse. But real fandom involves so much more than loving your team, it incorporates wholly hating its enemies. It is not enough for me that the Yankees win, unless Boston is also humiliated.
And Carl Pavano.
[87] Of course it’s all inferential on my part, but e.g. the way the ARod stuff developed the year he struggled a bit doesn’t give me any reason to credit the judgement of ballplayers, esp. when issues of masculinity and manhood and machismo are involved. If you had a negative reaction to Verducci/Torre, shouldn’t you wonder if a high-profile/salary guy who showed up and got hurt for a long time would get a fair hearing in the clubhouse of a high-pressure team that was notable for washing out of the playoffs a lot?
Carl Pavano is not a swear poll alternative?
“Athletes understand that people get hurt, who better? The fact that they still undercut him is interesting.”
People hate that which they fear to become.
[95] OK, but we’re talking about your daughter, right gas? So I’d suggest you go easy on the “lamentations of their women” stuff.
Alyssa Milano
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