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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Although PECOTA, from Baseball Prospectus had a bad season last year and so far this season seems to be fraught with problems, it's been a very good projection system prior to 2009, although their claims about deadly accuracy are stupid. The one caveat here is I can no longer justify paying for content that is at best no better than what I can get for free elsewhere, so I let my Baseball Prospectus subscription expire and this is based on the PECOTA spreadsheet that was posted in their February 25 update, so if they've changed since then those changes will not be reflected here.

Projection pecota
Date 3/30/10
Iterations 100,000
American League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Red Sox 92.3 69.7 81 - 102 833 709 32.9% 20.1% -2.7 -39 -27
Rays 91.7 70.3 81 - 102 818 706 31.3% 19.3% 7.7 15 -48
Yankees 90.4 71.6 79 - 100 877 772 27.7% 19.4% -12.6 -38 19
Orioles 78.6 83.4 68 - 89 777 791 7.0% 9.2% 14.6 36 -85
Blue Jays 67.4 94.6 56 - 77 728 842 1.0% 1.9% -7.6 -70 71
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 83.6 78.4 73 - 94 813 801 31.1% 5.0% -3.4 -4 36
White Sox 79.1 82.9 68 - 89 741 770 19.6% 2.9% 0.1 17 38
Indians 78.9 83.1 68 - 89 797 829 19.1% 2.1% 13.9 24 -36
Tigers 77.3 84.7 66 - 87 740 777 17.8% 2.3% -8.7 -3 32
Royals 74.2 87.8 63 - 84 732 789 12.4% 2.5% 9.2 46 -53
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 83.7 78.3 73 - 94 832 801 32.9% 3.7% -3.3 48 61
Mariners 83.0 79.0 72 - 93 739 716 31.0% 4.7% -14.0 99 24
Athletics 79.9 82.1 69 - 90 735 737 22.4% 4.1% 4.9 -24 -24
Angels 75.2 86.8 64 - 85 771 823 13.7% 2.8% -9.8 -112 62
National League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 90.2 71.8 79 - 100 810 725 40.3% 10.9% -2.8 -10 16
Braves 87.0 75.0 76 - 97 765 709 29.1% 10.7% 0.0 30 68
Marlins 82.8 79.2 72 - 93 764 749 17.3% 7.9% -3.2 -8 -17
Mets 75.4 86.6 64 - 85 763 819 7.0% 3.9% 5.4 92 62
Nationals 74.3 87.7 63 - 84 695 752 6.3% 3.6% 15.3 -15 -122
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 90.3 71.7 79 - 100 733 667 42.1% 6.9% -0.7 3 27
Cubs 82.7 79.3 72 - 93 728 725 20.6% 7.3% -0.3 21 53
Brewers 79.4 82.6 68 - 89 769 792 12.5% 4.9% 1.4 -16 -26
Reds 77.4 84.6 66 - 87 717 756 12.1% 3.5% -2.6 44 33
Astros 75.4 86.6 64 - 85 698 752 7.0% 4.1% 13.4 55 -18
Pirates 72.1 89.9 61 - 82 681 775 5.7% 2.6% -1.9 45 7
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rockies 86.4 75.6 86 - 96 787 744 28.8% 8.3% -5.6 -17 29
Dodgers 86.2 75.8 75 - 96 736 688 29.3% 10.2% -8.8 -44 77
Giants 83.3 78.7 83 - 93 697 685 19.8% 7.7% 8.3 40 74
Diamondbacks 81.8 80.2 81 - 92 728 713 18.8% 5.6% -6.2 8 -69
Padres 70.1 91.9 70 - 80 674 767 3.3% 1.8% 0.1 36 -2


W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored
(positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 12:12 pm by SG / 2 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Pie charts are all messed up - they don’t match the projections at all.

They should be fixed now.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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