Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition

Although PECOTA, from Baseball Prospectus had a bad season last year and so far this season seems to be fraught with problems, it's been a very good projection system prior to 2009, although their claims about deadly accuracy are stupid. The one caveat here is I can no longer justify paying for content that is at best no better than what I can get for free elsewhere, so I let my Baseball Prospectus subscription expire and this is based on the PECOTA spreadsheet that was posted in their February 25 update, so if they've changed since then those changes will not be reflected here.

Projection	pecota
Date	3/30/10
Iterations	100,000
American League
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Red Sox	92.3	69.7	81 - 102	833	709	32.9%	20.1%	-2.7	-39	-27
Rays	91.7	70.3	81 - 102	818	706	31.3%	19.3%	7.7	15	-48
Yankees	90.4	71.6	79 - 100	877	772	27.7%	19.4%	-12.6	-38	19
Orioles	78.6	83.4	68 - 89	777	791	7.0%	9.2%	14.6	36	-85
Blue Jays	67.4	94.6	56 - 77	728	842	1.0%	1.9%	-7.6	-70	71
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	83.6	78.4	73 - 94	813	801	31.1%	5.0%	-3.4	-4	36
White Sox	79.1	82.9	68 - 89	741	770	19.6%	2.9%	0.1	17	38
Indians	78.9	83.1	68 - 89	797	829	19.1%	2.1%	13.9	24	-36
Tigers	77.3	84.7	66 - 87	740	777	17.8%	2.3%	-8.7	-3	32
Royals	74.2	87.8	63 - 84	732	789	12.4%	2.5%	9.2	46	-53
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	83.7	78.3	73 - 94	832	801	32.9%	3.7%	-3.3	48	61
Mariners	83.0	79.0	72 - 93	739	716	31.0%	4.7%	-14.0	99	24
Athletics	79.9	82.1	69 - 90	735	737	22.4%	4.1%	4.9	-24	-24
Angels	75.2	86.8	64 - 85	771	823	13.7%	2.8%	-9.8	-112	62
National League
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	90.2	71.8	79 - 100	810	725	40.3%	10.9%	-2.8	-10	16
Braves	87.0	75.0	76 - 97	765	709	29.1%	10.7%	0.0	30	68
Marlins	82.8	79.2	72 - 93	764	749	17.3%	7.9%	-3.2	-8	-17
Mets	75.4	86.6	64 - 85	763	819	7.0%	3.9%	5.4	92	62
Nationals	74.3	87.7	63 - 84	695	752	6.3%	3.6%	15.3	-15	-122
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	90.3	71.7	79 - 100	733	667	42.1%	6.9%	-0.7	3	27
Cubs	82.7	79.3	72 - 93	728	725	20.6%	7.3%	-0.3	21	53
Brewers	79.4	82.6	68 - 89	769	792	12.5%	4.9%	1.4	-16	-26
Reds	77.4	84.6	66 - 87	717	756	12.1%	3.5%	-2.6	44	33
Astros	75.4	86.6	64 - 85	698	752	7.0%	4.1%	13.4	55	-18
Pirates	72.1	89.9	61 - 82	681	775	5.7%	2.6%	-1.9	45	7
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rockies	86.4	75.6	86 - 96	787	744	28.8%	8.3%	-5.6	-17	29
Dodgers	86.2	75.8	75 - 96	736	688	29.3%	10.2%	-8.8	-44	77
Giants	83.3	78.7	83 - 93	697	685	19.8%	7.7%	8.3	40	74
Diamondbacks	81.8	80.2	81 - 92	728	713	18.8%	5.6%	-6.2	8	-69
Padres	70.1	91.9	70 - 80	674	767	3.3%	1.8%	0.1	36	-2

W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored
(positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

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