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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition

I've used the Hardball Times's projections for this the last few years, and this year I'm using their new Oliver projections, designed by Brian Cartwright.
Projection oliver
Date 3/30/10
Iterations 100,000
American League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 98.7 63.3 88 - 108 915 715 44.2% 25.4% -4.3 0 -38
Red Sox 94.3 67.7 83 - 104 806 668 29.3% 23.7% -0.7 -66 -68
Rays 92.0 70.0 81 - 102 816 699 23.9% 22.0% 8.0 13 -55
Orioles 74.2 87.8 63 - 84 743 791 2.5% 4.8% 10.2 2 -85
Blue Jays 62.3 99.7 51 - 72 673 823 0.1% 0.7% -12.7 -125 52
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 84.0 78.0 73 - 94 869 851 32.8% 3.9% -3.0 52 86
Indians 80.9 81.1 70 - 91 819 830 25.5% 3.0% 15.9 46 -35
Tigers 77.9 84.1 67 - 88 760 795 18.9% 2.2% -8.1 17 50
White Sox 77.2 84.8 66 - 87 756 807 17.6% 1.7% -1.8 32 75
Royals 68.7 93.3 58 - 79 706 825 5.3% 0.6% 3.7 20 -17
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 88.2 73.8 77 - 98 777 720 45.2% 3.3% 1.2 -7 -20
Mariners 80.7 81.3 70 - 91 754 751 22.3% 3.1% -16.3 114 59
Athletics 78.4 83.6 67 - 88 730 741 16.3% 2.9% 3.4 -29 -20
Angels 77.8 84.2 67 - 88 778 805 16.3% 2.8% -7.2 -105 44
National League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Braves 92.7 69.3 82 - 102 777 668 43.3% 12.4% 5.7 42 27
Phillies 90.0 72.0 79 - 100 822 733 34.7% 12.7% -3.0 2 24
Marlins 80.7 81.3 70 - 91 743 744 10.4% 8.4% -5.3 -29 -22
Nationals 76.2 85.8 65 - 86 713 758 7.5% 4.7% 17.2 3 -116
Mets 73.4 88.6 62 - 83 771 843 4.1% 3.4% 3.4 100 86
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 90.6 71.4 80 - 101 757 685 42.9% 7.6% -0.4 27 45
Cubs 85.4 76.6 74 - 95 736 717 25.4% 8.3% 2.4 29 45
Brewers 82.4 79.6 71 - 92 747 749 18.6% 6.7% 4.4 -38 -69
Reds 77.0 85.0 66 - 87 687 740 7.2% 5.0% -3.0 14 17
Pirates 70.5 91.5 59 - 81 661 770 4.4% 2.2% -3.5 25 2
Astros 65.7 96.3 55 - 76 631 774 1.5% 0.7% 3.7 -12 4
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Dodgers 87.7 74.3 77 - 98 757 692 35.4% 6.1% -7.3 -23 81
Giants 82.0 80.0 81 - 92 689 686 18.9% 7.0% 7.0 32 75
Rockies 81.3 80.7 81 - 91 722 722 16.9% 5.7% -10.7 -82 7
Diamondbacks 81.1 80.9 81 - 91 703 695 16.4% 5.8% -6.9 -17 -87
Padres 78.2 83.8 78 - 88 676 693 12.5% 3.6% 8.2 38 -76
W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored
(positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 12:11 pm by SG / 2 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Looks good, SG, although it seems like a few of the wins amounts are off (like the Rangers getting 88 and being in second in the AL West).

Ignore the order, the sorts are all off.

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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