Replacement Level Yankees Weblog - 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout

The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame. Although it's considered the most basic projection system, added complexity really hasn't shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.

Projection	marcel
Date	3/30/10
Iterations	100,000
American League
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	97.1	64.9	86 - 106	898	729	49.4%	20.3%	-5.9	-17	-24
Rays	89.6	72.4	79 - 100	816	725	23.4%	19.7%	5.6	13	-29
Red Sox	89.1	72.9	78 - 99	820	727	22.5%	19.6%	-5.9	-52	-9
Orioles	74.0	88.0	63 - 84	757	813	3.7%	4.8%	10.0	16	-63
Blue Jays	66.5	95.5	55 - 77	695	807	1.0%	1.8%	-8.5	-103	36
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Twins	83.1	78.9	72 - 93	833	824	30.6%	3.9%	-3.9	16	59
White Sox	80.8	81.2	70 - 91	726	743	23.9%	3.8%	1.8	2	11
Indians	79.6	82.4	69 - 90	792	820	19.8%	3.6%	14.6	19	-45
Tigers	78.4	83.6	67 - 88	750	784	17.6%	3.0%	-7.6	7	39
Royals	70.9	91.1	60 - 81	717	819	8.1%	1.3%	5.9	31	-23
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rangers	84.5	77.5	73 - 95	790	760	33.5%	5.6%	-2.5	6	20
Mariners	83.8	78.2	73 - 94	751	719	31.9%	4.8%	-13.2	111	27
Angels	78.7	83.3	68 - 89	770	788	17.2%	4.2%	-6.3	-113	27
Athletics	78.7	83.3	68 - 89	745	768	17.4%	3.6%	3.7	-14	7
National League
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	87.4	74.6	76 - 97	802	735	35.2%	7.9%	-5.6	-18	26
Braves	84.1	77.9	73 - 94	758	727	25.6%	6.4%	-2.9	23	86
Marlins	80.4	81.6	69 - 90	767	773	15.9%	5.9%	-5.6	-5	7
Mets	78.7	83.3	68 - 89	778	799	12.8%	5.2%	8.7	107	42
Nationals	77.3	84.7	66 - 87	748	786	10.5%	4.8%	18.3	38	-88
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	89.2	72.8	78 - 99	752	686	34.4%	10.9%	-1.8	22	46
Cubs	84.7	77.3	74 - 95	740	711	23.1%	7.3%	1.7	33	39
Reds	84.1	77.9	73 - 94	737	722	23.6%	7.1%	4.1	64	-1
Brewers	80.6	81.4	70 - 91	763	774	12.1%	8.1%	2.6	-22	-44
Pirates	71.7	90.3	61 - 82	680	777	4.5%	2.5%	-2.3	44	9
Astros	66.7	95.3	56 - 77	678	807	2.2%	1.1%	4.7	35	37
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Rockies	85.6	76.4	85 - 96	775	740	29.0%	8.1%	-6.4	-29	25
Dodgers	85.3	76.7	74 - 95	757	709	26.8%	8.5%	-9.7	-23	98
Diamondbacks	83.0	79.0	82 - 93	725	704	20.7%	6.9%	-5.0	5	-78
Giants	81.3	80.7	81 - 91	709	706	17.0%	5.6%	6.3	52	95
Padres	75.2	86.8	75 - 85	699	746	6.5%	3.8%	5.2	61	-23

W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored
(positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 12:05 pm by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

1. Posted at 1:54:53 pm on Tuesday, March 30, 2010 by Mike K.

Woo-hoo! Pie charts with team logos! Is it only me, or does the RS slice appear bigger than the Yankees’s slice (and also Braves bigger than Phillies)? Could just be me…

Not that it matters, I don’t have pie chart slice envy or anything like that…my slice is *plenty* big!

2. Posted at 2:01:23 pm on Tuesday, March 30, 2010 by The North Wind

Pie Charts!

How are these standings ordered? You have Boston listed ahead of Tampa, Detroit ahead of the White Sox and Cleveland, Seattle ahead of Texas, and the Dodgers ahead of the Rockies, even though in each of these cases, the latter team is projected to win more games than the former team.

You also have the pie chart logos for Texas/Anaheim, Cubs/Reds, Twins/Tigers/White Sox/Cleveland, and Mets/Marlins switched.

3. Posted at 2:03:24 pm on Tuesday, March 30, 2010 by SG