The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition

Marcel was developed by Tangotiger of The Book fame. Although it's considered the most basic projection system, added complexity really hasn't shown to add all that much accuracy over Marcel, and the principles behind it are solid and should be the basis for any good forecasting system.

Projection marcel
Date 3/30/10
Iterations 100,000
American League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 97.1 64.9 86 - 106 898 729 49.4% 20.3% -5.9 -17 -24
Rays 89.6 72.4 79 - 100 816 725 23.4% 19.7% 5.6 13 -29
Red Sox 89.1 72.9 78 - 99 820 727 22.5% 19.6% -5.9 -52 -9
Orioles 74.0 88.0 63 - 84 757 813 3.7% 4.8% 10.0 16 -63
Blue Jays 66.5 95.5 55 - 77 695 807 1.0% 1.8% -8.5 -103 36
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 83.1 78.9 72 - 93 833 824 30.6% 3.9% -3.9 16 59
White Sox 80.8 81.2 70 - 91 726 743 23.9% 3.8% 1.8 2 11
Indians 79.6 82.4 69 - 90 792 820 19.8% 3.6% 14.6 19 -45
Tigers 78.4 83.6 67 - 88 750 784 17.6% 3.0% -7.6 7 39
Royals 70.9 91.1 60 - 81 717 819 8.1% 1.3% 5.9 31 -23
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 84.5 77.5 73 - 95 790 760 33.5% 5.6% -2.5 6 20
Mariners 83.8 78.2 73 - 94 751 719 31.9% 4.8% -13.2 111 27
Angels 78.7 83.3 68 - 89 770 788 17.2% 4.2% -6.3 -113 27
Athletics 78.7 83.3 68 - 89 745 768 17.4% 3.6% 3.7 -14 7
National League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 87.4 74.6 76 - 97 802 735 35.2% 7.9% -5.6 -18 26
Braves 84.1 77.9 73 - 94 758 727 25.6% 6.4% -2.9 23 86
Marlins 80.4 81.6 69 - 90 767 773 15.9% 5.9% -5.6 -5 7
Mets 78.7 83.3 68 - 89 778 799 12.8% 5.2% 8.7 107 42
Nationals 77.3 84.7 66 - 87 748 786 10.5% 4.8% 18.3 38 -88
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 89.2 72.8 78 - 99 752 686 34.4% 10.9% -1.8 22 46
Cubs 84.7 77.3 74 - 95 740 711 23.1% 7.3% 1.7 33 39
Reds 84.1 77.9 73 - 94 737 722 23.6% 7.1% 4.1 64 -1
Brewers 80.6 81.4 70 - 91 763 774 12.1% 8.1% 2.6 -22 -44
Pirates 71.7 90.3 61 - 82 680 777 4.5% 2.5% -2.3 44 9
Astros 66.7 95.3 56 - 77 678 807 2.2% 1.1% 4.7 35 37
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rockies 85.6 76.4 85 - 96 775 740 29.0% 8.1% -6.4 -29 25
Dodgers 85.3 76.7 74 - 95 757 709 26.8% 8.5% -9.7 -23 98
Diamondbacks 83.0 79.0 82 - 93 725 704 20.7% 6.9% -5.0 5 -78
Giants 81.3 80.7 81 - 91 709 706 17.0% 5.6% 6.3 52 95
Padres 75.2 86.8 75 - 85 699 746 6.5% 3.8% 5.2 61 -23


W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored
(positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 12:05 pm by SG / 8 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Woo-hoo!  Pie charts with team logos!  Is it only me, or does the RS slice appear bigger than the Yankees’s slice (and also Braves bigger than Phillies)?  Could just be me…

Not that it matters, I don’t have pie chart slice envy or anything like that…my slice is *plenty* big!

Pie Charts!

How are these standings ordered? You have Boston listed ahead of Tampa, Detroit ahead of the White Sox and Cleveland, Seattle ahead of Texas, and the Dodgers ahead of the Rockies, even though in each of these cases, the latter team is projected to win more games than the former team.

You also have the pie chart logos for Texas/Anaheim, Cubs/Reds, Twins/Tigers/White Sox/Cleveland, and Mets/Marlins switched.

Yeah, i need to fix the order of the standings and the pie charts.  I’ll repost those in a bit.

Also just realized that the pie charts in the Marcels, CAIRO, and CHONE posts are identical.

Rather bearish on the Red Sox.

[5] Not to worry.  PECOTA’s got the Sox’s backs.

Marcel doesn’t account for defense, so it may not give a team like the Red Sox who added several good defenders enough credit.

OK, I think pie charts and standings are fixed now.

Awesome Pie Charts!! yummy

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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