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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CHONE Edition

Developed by Sean Smith who makes it available on Baseball Projection.com, CHONE has consistently tested as one of the best projection systems for the last few seasons, and it's completely free.

Projection chone
Date 3/30/10
Iterations 100,000
American League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 95.2 66.8 84 - 105 902 747 38.1% 22.9% -7.8 -13 -6
Red Sox 93.8 68.2 83 - 103 822 690 35.7% 20.3% -1.2 -50 -46
Rays 87.2 74.8 76 - 97 815 744 19.1% 16.5% 3.2 12 -10
Orioles 76.6 85.4 66 - 87 785 819 6.3% 4.7% 12.6 44 -57
Blue Jays 65.5 96.5 54 - 76 687 816 0.9% 1.1% -9.5 -111 45
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Twins 84.9 77.1 74 - 95 829 801 32.8% 5.2% -2.1 12 36
Indians 81.8 80.2 71 - 92 816 816 25.1% 4.7% 16.8 43 -49
White Sox 80.2 81.8 69 - 90 757 777 20.3% 4.8% 1.2 33 45
Tigers 75.3 86.7 64 - 85 729 792 11.4% 2.5% -10.7 -14 47
Royals 74.1 87.9 63 - 84 725 790 10.4% 3.1% 9.1 39 -52
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Rangers 84.4 77.6 73 - 94 775 753 35.9% 3.6% -2.6 -9 13
Athletics 79.5 82.5 68 - 90 739 751 23.5% 3.9% 4.5 -20 -10
Angels 78.6 83.4 68 - 89 762 791 20.9% 3.6% -6.4 -121 30
Mariners 77.8 84.2 67 - 88 719 745 19.6% 3.2% -19.2 79 53
National League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 89.1 72.9 78 - 99 835 756 35.8% 11.1% -3.9 15 47
Braves 89.1 72.9 78 - 99 815 730 35.6% 11.3% 2.1 80 89
Marlins 77.2 84.8 66 - 87 782 813 10.4% 3.8% -8.8 10 47
Mets 77.2 84.8 66 - 87 803 834 11.1% 3.5% 7.2 132 77
Nationals 73.8 88.2 63 - 84 743 810 7.1% 3.0% 14.8 33 -64
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 90.0 72.0 79 - 100 770 690 37.7% 11.1% -1.0 40 50
Reds 82.7 79.3 72 - 93 765 764 19.3% 7.7% 2.7 92 41
Brewers 82.2 79.8 71 - 92 783 779 19.4% 6.8% 4.2 -2 -39
Cubs 78.9 83.1 68 - 89 752 779 12.1% 6.0% -4.1 45 107
Pirates 76.0 86.0 65 - 86 730 790 7.5% 4.3% 2.0 94 22
Astros 70.2 91.8 59 - 80 685 786 3.9% 2.2% 8.2 42 16
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Dodgers 85.8 76.2 75 - 96 782 733 30.3% 7.8% -9.2 2 122
Diamondbacks 83.1 78.9 83 - 93 738 718 22.3% 6.2% -4.9 18 -64
Rockies 82.4 79.6 82 - 92 803 787 20.1% 5.4% -9.6 -1 72
Giants 78.9 83.1 78 - 89 711 729 13.2% 5.3% 3.9 54 118
Padres 78.4 83.6 78 - 88 705 734 14.1% 4.6% 8.4 67 -35


W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored
(positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 12:09 pm by SG / 3 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Other than the AL East/NL East, the divisions are ordered incorrectly.  E.g. M’s have the least wins in the AL West, but finishing first?

Red Sox/Rays are switched up in your AL East piechart (this is also the case in the CAIRO one, so I bet this is true for all the AL East pie charts).

Man, the Western divisions (and the AL Central) are ugly.

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