Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own in-house projection system, which is based on Marcel with the following changes.

1) I use the prior four years of data, whereas Marcel uses only the prior three years.
2) I make adjustments for park, which Marcel does not do.
3) I use major league equivalencies for players who've played in the minors, which Marcel does not do.
4) I account for the defense behind a pitcher in their prior seasons as well as in projecting them for the next season, which Marcel does not do.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I also regress towards different additional means based on player age and primary position.
6) My projected playing time is based on a weighted average of the previous four years, although I am more conservative when assigning playing time in these simulations.

Projection	cairo
Date	3/30/10
Iterations	100,000
American League
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Yankees	97.7	64.3	87 - 107	881	708	41.1%	24.1%	-5.3	-34	-45
Rays	94.2	67.8	83 - 104	783	655	29.5%	24.4%	10.2	-20	-99
Red Sox	93.9	68.1	83 - 103	824	685	27.6%	24.6%	-1.1	-48	-51
Orioles	71.4	90.6	60 - 81	749	828	1.6%	2.7%	7.4	8	-48
Blue Jays	63.6	98.4	53 - 74	662	798	0.3%	0.7%	-11.4	-136	27
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
White Sox	82.5	79.5	72 - 93	744	743	28.5%	3.0%	3.5	20	11
Twins	82.1	79.9	71 - 92	796	797	27.0%	3.2%	-4.9	-21	32
Tigers	80.0	82.0	69 - 90	726	749	21.9%	2.6%	-6.0	-17	4
Indians	78.0	84.0	67 - 88	793	831	17.9%	2.3%	13.0	20	-34
Royals	67.9	94.1	57 - 78	714	844	4.8%	0.6%	2.9	28	2
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Angels	82.3	79.7	71 - 92	747	728	28.4%	3.3%	-2.7	-136	-33
Mariners	81.7	80.3	71 - 92	700	685	26.8%	3.1%	-15.3	60	-7
Rangers	80.5	81.5	69 - 91	761	771	23.7%	2.5%	-6.5	-23	31
Athletics	79.4	82.6	68 - 89	681	688	21.1%	2.7%	4.4	-78	-73
National League
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Phillies	91.7	70.3	81 - 102	812	711	46.3%	8.9%	-1.3	-8	2
Braves	86.2	75.8	75 - 96	738	694	26.4%	9.6%	-0.8	3	53
Marlins	79.6	82.4	69 - 90	762	774	13.5%	5.8%	-6.4	-10	8
Mets	77.0	85.0	66 - 87	755	791	9.5%	4.4%	7.0	84	34
Nationals	71.4	90.6	60 - 81	687	780	4.2%	2.2%	12.4	-23	-94
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Cardinals	91.4	70.6	80 - 101	727	645	40.3%	10.8%	0.4	-3	5
Reds	84.5	77.5	73 - 94	742	719	19.3%	9.5%	4.5	69	-4
Cubs	83.9	78.1	73 - 94	733	716	18.3%	9.2%	0.9	26	44
Brewers	83.0	79.0	72 - 93	730	718	16.6%	8.8%	5.0	-55	-100
Pirates	73.0	89.0	62 - 83	672	749	4.5%	2.9%	-1.0	36	-19
Astros	64.6	97.4	54 - 75	653	809	1.1%	0.8%	2.6	10	39
TM	W	L	StdW	RS	RA	Div	WC	W+/-	RS+/-	RA+/-
Dodgers	85.5	76.5	74 - 96	725	679	28.7%	6.8%	-9.5	-55	68
Rockies	85.0	77.0	85 - 95	800	763	26.7%	6.7%	-7.0	-4	48
Diamondbacks	81.6	80.4	81 - 92	736	726	19.6%	5.5%	-6.4	16	-56
Giants	78.6	83.4	78 - 89	677	699	13.1%	4.3%	3.6	20	88
Padres	77.9	84.1	77 - 88	631	658	11.9%	3.8%	7.9	-7	-111

W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored
(positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

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