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Tuesday, March 30, 2010

2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition

CAIRO is my own in-house projection system, which is based on Marcel with the following changes.

1) I use the prior four years of data, whereas Marcel uses only the prior three years.
2) I make adjustments for park, which Marcel does not do.
3) I use major league equivalencies for players who've played in the minors, which Marcel does not do.
4) I account for the defense behind a pitcher in their prior seasons as well as in projecting them for the next season, which Marcel does not do.
5) Marcel regresses everyone towards league average, I also regress towards different additional means based on player age and primary position.
6) My projected playing time is based on a weighted average of the previous four years, although I am more conservative when assigning playing time in these simulations.

Projection cairo
Date 3/30/10
Iterations 100,000
American League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Yankees 97.7 64.3 87 - 107 881 708 41.1% 24.1% -5.3 -34 -45
Rays 94.2 67.8 83 - 104 783 655 29.5% 24.4% 10.2 -20 -99
Red Sox 93.9 68.1 83 - 103 824 685 27.6% 24.6% -1.1 -48 -51
Orioles 71.4 90.6 60 - 81 749 828 1.6% 2.7% 7.4 8 -48
Blue Jays 63.6 98.4 53 - 74 662 798 0.3% 0.7% -11.4 -136 27
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
White Sox 82.5 79.5 72 - 93 744 743 28.5% 3.0% 3.5 20 11
Twins 82.1 79.9 71 - 92 796 797 27.0% 3.2% -4.9 -21 32
Tigers 80.0 82.0 69 - 90 726 749 21.9% 2.6% -6.0 -17 4
Indians 78.0 84.0 67 - 88 793 831 17.9% 2.3% 13.0 20 -34
Royals 67.9 94.1 57 - 78 714 844 4.8% 0.6% 2.9 28 2
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Angels 82.3 79.7 71 - 92 747 728 28.4% 3.3% -2.7 -136 -33
Mariners 81.7 80.3 71 - 92 700 685 26.8% 3.1% -15.3 60 -7
Rangers 80.5 81.5 69 - 91 761 771 23.7% 2.5% -6.5 -23 31
Athletics 79.4 82.6 68 - 89 681 688 21.1% 2.7% 4.4 -78 -73
National League
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Phillies 91.7 70.3 81 - 102 812 711 46.3% 8.9% -1.3 -8 2
Braves 86.2 75.8 75 - 96 738 694 26.4% 9.6% -0.8 3 53
Marlins 79.6 82.4 69 - 90 762 774 13.5% 5.8% -6.4 -10 8
Mets 77.0 85.0 66 - 87 755 791 9.5% 4.4% 7.0 84 34
Nationals 71.4 90.6 60 - 81 687 780 4.2% 2.2% 12.4 -23 -94
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Cardinals 91.4 70.6 80 - 101 727 645 40.3% 10.8% 0.4 -3 5
Reds 84.5 77.5 73 - 94 742 719 19.3% 9.5% 4.5 69 -4
Cubs 83.9 78.1 73 - 94 733 716 18.3% 9.2% 0.9 26 44
Brewers 83.0 79.0 72 - 93 730 718 16.6% 8.8% 5.0 -55 -100
Pirates 73.0 89.0 62 - 83 672 749 4.5% 2.9% -1.0 36 -19
Astros 64.6 97.4 54 - 75 653 809 1.1% 0.8% 2.6 10 39
TM W L StdW RS RA Div WC W+/- RS+/- RA+/-
Dodgers 85.5 76.5 74 - 96 725 679 28.7% 6.8% -9.5 -55 68
Rockies 85.0 77.0 85 - 95 800 763 26.7% 6.7% -7.0 -4 48
Diamondbacks 81.6 80.4 81 - 92 736 726 19.6% 5.5% -6.4 16 -56
Giants 78.6 83.4 78 - 89 677 699 13.1% 4.3% 3.6 20 88
Padres 77.9 84.1 77 - 88 631 658 11.9% 3.8% 7.9 -7 -111
W: Projected 2010 wins
L: Projected 2010 losses
RS: Projected 2010 runs scored
RA: Projected 2010 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC: Wild card win percentage
W+/-: 2010 projected wins minus 2009 actual wins
RS+/-: 2010 projected runs scored minus 2009 actual runs scored
(positive means they are projected to score more)
RA+/-: 2010 projected runs allowed minus 2009 actual runs allowed (negative means they are projected to allow fewer)
StD W: Wins within one standard deviation

--Posted at 12:08 pm by SG / 7 Comments | - (0)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Badass pie charts. Nice.

Minor error: The AL East piechart has the Rays win % paired with the Red Sox logo, and Sox % with Rays logo.

The projections certainly look reasonable.  Nice presentation, the little AL East mishap notwithstanding.

Is this using a new version of CAIRO?

Can I have the spreadsheet for it?

I haven’t put the depth charts into a spreadsheet yet.  I’ll try and do that over the next day or two and then post what should be the last version of CAIRO.

“the last version of CAIRO”

“for 2010”, I hope.

“for 2010”, I hope.

Yeah, that’s what I meant.  As long as we need biased projections that will make the Yankees look better than they are, CAIRO will be arond.

While you’re fixing the labels, can you take care of making the Yankees’ slice a little bigger ?

Page 1 of 1 pages:

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