Tuesday, July 20, 2010
2010 All Star Break Review - June Edition
A little late, but following up on April and May here’s the June All Star Break review.
June looked like the Yankees’ easiest month on paper, with 18 of their 27 games at home, and with a bunch of those games against minor league teams from Houston, Philadelphia and Queens. Log5 would have estimated them winning about 18 of those 27 games.
| Series | Start Date | # Gms | xW | aW | diff |
| Orioles at Yankees | 6/1/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Yankees at Blue Jays | 6/4/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Yankees at Orioles | 6/8/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| Astros at Yankees | 6/11/2010 | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| Phillies at Yankees | 6/15/2010 | 3 | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| Mets at Yankees | 6/18/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Diamondbacks | 6/21/2010 | 3 | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| Yankees at Dodgers | 6/25/2010 | 3 | 1.6 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Mariners at Yankees | 6/29/2010 | 3 | 2.1 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Total | 27 | 18 | 17 | -1 |
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team exceeded expectations
The Yankees did about a win worse than expected, with the home series against Seattle to end the month the biggest problem (this does include the game in July 1). It felt worse than that, but I think a big part of that was the drop in offense, as the team went from scoring 5.6 runs per game in April and 5.7 runs per game in May to 4.7 in June.
| Player | month | pa | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | so | sb | cs | gdp | avg | obp | slg | wOBA | br |
| Derek Jeter | 6 | 118 | 25 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 4 | .243 | .339 | .379 | .323 | 13 |
| Mark Teixeira | 6 | 116 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .250 | .353 | .460 | .359 | 16 |
| Robinson Cano | 6 | 113 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .333 | .398 | .510 | .398 | 19 |
| Nick Swisher | 6 | 117 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .240 | .325 | .423 | .328 | 14 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 6 | 90 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .244 | .311 | .463 | .333 | 12 |
| Brett Gardner | 6 | 71 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 0 | .383 | .479 | .533 | .450 | 14 |
| Curtis Granderson | 6 | 100 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .239 | .300 | .457 | .325 | 13 |
| Jorge Posada | 6 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .203 | .344 | .351 | .323 | 10 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 6 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .180 | .275 | .246 | .250 | 4 |
| Marcus Thames | 6 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .071 | .133 | .071 | .108 | -1 |
| Nick Johnson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Ramiro Pena | 6 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .136 | .240 | .136 | .200 | 1 |
| Randy Winn | 6 | 51 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .277 | .333 | .383 | .322 | 6 |
| Kevin Russo | 6 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .130 | .231 | .130 | .192 | 1 |
| Juan Miranda | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Colin Curtis | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Huffman | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
| Chad Moeller | 6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .333 | .400 | .327 | 1 |
| Greg Golson | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 0 |
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
br: Total linear weights batting runs, not position-adjusted or compared to average/replacement level
Once again, Robinson Cano was the most valuable offensive player on the team although Brett Gardner has the best rate performance. Derek Jeter had a relatively rough month, and reality slammed into Francisco Cervelli’s over-sized batting helmet with extreme force. But in general, the team overall just didn’t have a good month offensively. The only players who hit at least as well as they projected entering the season were Cano and TSBG.
On the plus side, the team’s run prevention in June improved over May, falling to 4.3 from 4.4. Of course, that’s at least partially a function of only pitching to 88.9% of a major league lineup for a large part of the month, and a function of playing some bad teams.
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| CC Sabathia | 5 | 5 | 37.0 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 2.19 | 2.19 | 3.15 | 14.3 |
| Javier Vazquez | 6 | 6 | 39.0 | 26 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 35 | 3.23 | 3.23 | 4.48 | 10.6 |
| Andy Pettitte | 5 | 5 | 34.0 | 28 | 15 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 3.97 | 3.18 | 3.85 | 6.4 |
| Phil Hughes | 5 | 5 | 31.3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 24 | 5.46 | 5.17 | 4.09 | 0.8 |
| A.J. Burnett | 5 | 5 | 23.0 | 35 | 29 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 19 | 11.35 | 11.35 | 9.24 | -14.5 |
| SP Total | 26 | 26 | 164.33 | 151 | 86 | 82 | 25 | 7 | 61 | 146 | 4.71 | 4.49 | 4.64 | 17.6 |
| pitcher | g | gs | ip | h | r | er | hr | bb | hbp | k | ra | era | fip | rsar |
| Mariano Rivera | 11 | 0 | 13.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.43 | 7.5 |
| David Robertson | 9 | 0 | 9.0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.53 | 4.2 |
| Boone Logan | 4 | 0 | 7.7 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 3.33 | 2.4 |
| Joba Chamberlain | 12 | 0 | 10.7 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 4.22 | 4.22 | 2.45 | 1.2 |
| Sergio Mitre | 1 | 0 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.70 | 1.2 |
| Chad Gaudin | 7 | 0 | 12.7 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 4.97 | 4.97 | 6.04 | 0.3 |
| Chan Ho Park | 9 | 0 | 11.7 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 3.46 | -0.2 |
| Damaso Marte | 8 | 0 | 5.3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 7.33 | -0.9 |
| RP Total | 61 | 0 | 72 | 57 | 26 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 65 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.53 | 15.8 |
| SP + RP | 87 | 26 | 236.33 | 208 | 112 | 108 | 29 | 9 | 93 | 211 | 4.27 | 4.11 | 4.30 | 33.4 |
A.J. Burnett’s June could’ve gone a little better. Phil Hughes also had a disappointing month, but the it’s tough to quibble with how Sabathia, Vazquez and Pettitte did. The bullpen had its best month of the season overall, with David Robertson finally starting to resemble the 2009 vintage. It’s easy to forget how dominant Mo can be at times, but look at that June line and marvel at his awesomeness.
Once again the Yankees ERA was lower than their FIP, this time to the tune of about six runs. So it’s probably a safe assumption that the defense played pretty well, even if they don’t deserve all the credit for that difference.
The Yankees’ run differential in June was by far their worst of the season, as they allowed 114 runs to go with the 128 runs scored, a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .554. So the Yankees may have been a bit fortunate to actually only miss their expectations by one game.
And since it was requested, here’s a WAR pie chart for the Yankees through Sunday’s games.
Not shown:
Boone Logan: 0.2
Romulo Sanchez: 0.2
Damaso Marte: 0.2
Juan Miranda: 0.2
Alfredo Aceves: 0.2
Ivan Nova: 0.2
A.J. Burnett: 0.1
Kevin Russo: 0.1
Sergio Mitre: 0.1
Greg Golson: 0.1
David Robertson: 0.0
Colin Curtis: 0.0
Chad Moeller: 0.0
Chad Huffman: -0.1
Dustin Moseley: -0.2
Mark Melancon: -0.3
Ramiro Pena: -0.3
Chan Ho Park: -0.3
Joba Chamberlain: -0.4
Comments
Why does The Unnamed Starter get two slices of pie chart?
Appreciate the work SG.
(Are the bb and hbp columns mislabeled?)
Why does The Unnamed Starter get two slices of pie chart?
Looks like his batting line snuck in there on me.
(Are the bb and hbp columns mislabeled?)
Oops, yeah, flip them.
so, which will happen first: a CHoP DFA or Chamberlain being sent to the minors? My guess is neither.
[4] flying bacon. Not flying pigs, self propelled air born pork products.
so, which will happen first: a CHoP DFA or Chamberlain being sent to the minors? My guess is neither.
I was thinking that they are probably going to want to give Albaladejo a shot soon, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Joba sent down, especially if he has another bad game or two.
[6] please, please be right
[7] The problem with sending Joba to the minors is that it still leaves CHoP, Moseley, and Gaudin on the team and I’d take Joba over them any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
The problem with sending Joba to the minors is that it still leaves CHoP, Moseley, and Gaudin on the team and I’d take Joba over them any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
Well, those guys are all fungible and will be dumped as soon as there’s something better available.
The point is not Joba being better than them, the point is can Joba actually be good, and would sending him to the minors help move him in that direction?
When you’re more surprised that your ‘8th inning guy’ pitches a scoreless inning than you are when he gives up run(s), that’s a problem.
I would be shocked to see Joba sent down, although pleasantly so.
Meanwhile, Alby denies that he is being called up today, but it could be a misdirection.
Well, those guys are all fungible and will be dumped as soon as there’s something better available.
I agree, unfortunately these people aren’t falling out of trees and with the Yankees only 2.5 games up I’m not willing to weaken an already weak bullpen on the chance that Joba will find his command down in AAA.
He’s got the offseason, have him pitch in a winter league if they are worried or build up a 10 game lead so you can afford the downgrade.
I agree with Rich [10], but I suspect that Zorak’s view is going to be the team’s, particularly with Battlecat out 4-5 weeks.
There is a certain amount of excitement I get from Gardner’s at-bats these days, more so than anyone else.
Is there any particular evidence for him regressing?
Is there any particular evidence for him regressing?
Yeah, basically everything he’s done in his career to this point and regression towards the mean.
He’s at .277/.357/.376 for his MLB career right now at 757 PAs. If I had to bet, I’d say he hits closer to that career line than his current .305/.398/.408 going forward, but it’s pretty clear he’s established himself as a major league caliber player, and that’s pretty cool.
Gruttiness don’t regress.
Seriously though, he hit .225/.308/.313 in 91 PA from May 10-31. He was at .344/.425/.419 in 108 PA through May 9, and has gone .314/.430/.457 in 129 PA since June 1. I wouldn’t expect Gardner to be the exception to the rule that everybody has slumps, so he’ll probably have another rough month some time before the year is out.
Unless he gets more consisent, of course.
WAR Pie!! Thanks, SG. I’m shocked Tex has amassed as much as TSBG.
The regular with the worst rate performance batted leadoff and the regular with the best rate performance batted mostly 9th. :(
I wish they’d switch Jeter and Gardner when the opposing starter is a rightie.
OT: Lou Piniella announces that he will retire at the end of the season.
[18] Interesting to see how he’ll be remembered as a manager.
LoHud says Albaladalacornejo has been called up.
LoHud says Albaladalacornejo has been called up.
Hope it won’t hurt his trade value.
[20] I expected better from you.
Come on, that was GOLD.
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