Tuesday, July 20, 2010
2010 All Star Break Review - June Edition
June looked like the Yankees’ easiest month on paper, with 18 of their 27 games at home, and with a bunch of those games against minor league teams from Houston, Philadelphia and Queens. Log5 would have estimated them winning about 18 of those 27 games.
|Series||Start Date||# Gms||xW||aW||diff|
|Orioles at Yankees||6/1/2010||3||2.3||3||0.7|
|Yankees at Blue Jays||6/4/2010||3||1.8||1||-0.8|
|Yankees at Orioles||6/8/2010||3||2.1||2||-0.1|
|Astros at Yankees||6/11/2010||3||2.3||3||0.7|
|Phillies at Yankees||6/15/2010||3||1.8||1||-0.8|
|Mets at Yankees||6/18/2010||3||1.9||2||0.1|
|Yankees at Diamondbacks||6/21/2010||3||1.9||2||0.1|
|Yankees at Dodgers||6/25/2010||3||1.6||2||0.4|
|Mariners at Yankees||6/29/2010||3||2.1||1||-1.1|
xW: Expected wins for this series using log 5
aW: Actual wins
diff: Difference between xW and aW. Positive means team exceeded expectations
The Yankees did about a win worse than expected, with the home series against Seattle to end the month the biggest problem (this does include the game in July 1). It felt worse than that, but I think a big part of that was the drop in offense, as the team went from scoring 5.6 runs per game in April and 5.7 runs per game in May to 4.7 in June.
Once again, Robinson Cano was the most valuable offensive player on the team although Brett Gardner has the best rate performance. Derek Jeter had a relatively rough month, and reality slammed into Francisco Cervelli’s over-sized batting helmet with extreme force. But in general, the team overall just didn’t have a good month offensively. The only players who hit at least as well as they projected entering the season were Cano and TSBG.
On the plus side, the team’s run prevention in June improved over May, falling to 4.3 from 4.4. Of course, that’s at least partially a function of only pitching to 88.9% of a major league lineup for a large part of the month, and a function of playing some bad teams.
|Chan Ho Park||9||0||11.7||11||7||7||1||0||4||11||5.40||5.40||3.46||-0.2|
|SP + RP||87||26||236.33||208||112||108||29||9||93||211||4.27||4.11||4.30||33.4|
A.J. Burnett’s June could’ve gone a little better. Phil Hughes also had a disappointing month, but the it’s tough to quibble with how Sabathia, Vazquez and Pettitte did. The bullpen had its best month of the season overall, with David Robertson finally starting to resemble the 2009 vintage. It’s easy to forget how dominant Mo can be at times, but look at that June line and marvel at his awesomeness.
Once again the Yankees ERA was lower than their FIP, this time to the tune of about six runs. So it’s probably a safe assumption that the defense played pretty well, even if they don’t deserve all the credit for that difference.
The Yankees’ run differential in June was by far their worst of the season, as they allowed 114 runs to go with the 128 runs scored, a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .554. So the Yankees may have been a bit fortunate to actually only miss their expectations by one game.
And since it was requested, here’s a WAR pie chart for the Yankees through Sunday’s games.
Boone Logan: 0.2
Romulo Sanchez: 0.2
Damaso Marte: 0.2
Juan Miranda: 0.2
Alfredo Aceves: 0.2
Ivan Nova: 0.2
A.J. Burnett: 0.1
Kevin Russo: 0.1
Sergio Mitre: 0.1
Greg Golson: 0.1
David Robertson: 0.0
Colin Curtis: 0.0
Chad Moeller: 0.0
Chad Huffman: -0.1
Dustin Moseley: -0.2
Mark Melancon: -0.3
Ramiro Pena: -0.3
Chan Ho Park: -0.3
Joba Chamberlain: -0.4
Previous entry: ESPN NY: Cashman says there's no Plan B -- yet