“I think it will be helpful,” Girardi said of potentially adding another hitter. “I think we’ve had a good offseason, [but] I think it’s important to our club that you add that other bat.”
General manager Brian Cashman is looking for a designated hitter to replace recently traded Jesus Montero. Former Yankees Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui are among the free-agent possibilities.
“Johnny has been a great player for a long time,” Girardi said. “There’s been a bunch of names talked about, and they’re all good players. [Raul] Ibanez, he’s had a great career, and Matsui has had a great career. Obviously, we know what Johnny and [Matsui] have meant to this organization and Ibanez has had success wherever he’s been. ...”
Well, except when he started out in Seattle. But that was like 12 years ago - he’s just hitting his stride now.
]]>A woman stalked and shook down New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman, getting him to pay her $6,000 and demanding more by threatening to harm his reputation, prosecutors said Thursday.
I’m going to go ahead and assume that this was the impetus behind signing Rafael Soriano in some way.
]]>The switch-hitter batted a career-worst .224 from the left side of the plate in 2011, often pulling the ball into the pronounced shift most opposing teams employ against him.
And he’s ready to try something drastic.
“When no one’s on base, if they’re playing a big shift, I might lay down some bunts this year,” Teixeira said before he was among the honorees at Tuesday night’s Thurman Munson dinner in Midtown. “I’ve been so against it my entire career. But I might lay down a few bunts. If I can beat the shift that way, that’s important.”
Joe Girardi approves. Binder™ was strangely silent when asked.
]]>Ken Rosenthal from FOX Sports says that the New York Yankees are in serious talks with utility man Bill Hall. Hall, 32, works out in the off season with New York Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long.
Hall had a rough 2011, but he’s had some good years in his career. CAIRO is not a fan of his.
| % | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | BR | BRAR |
| 80% | 362 | 330 | 46 | 83 | 21 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 35 | 93 | 4 | 3 | .251 | .333 | .464 | .349 | 51 | 14 |
| 65% | 332 | 302 | 39 | 72 | 17 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 6 | 1 | 29 | 90 | 5 | 2 | .237 | .310 | .423 | .321 | 40 | 6 |
| Baseline | 302 | 275 | 33 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 87 | 5 | 2 | .223 | .287 | .381 | .293 | 30 | -1 |
| 35% | 272 | 247 | 27 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 82 | 6 | 1 | .208 | .264 | .340 | .266 | 21 | -6 |
| 20% | 242 | 220 | 22 | 43 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 77 | 6 | 0 | .194 | .241 | .299 | .238 | 14 | -11 |
BR: Linear weights batting runs
BRAR: BR above replacement level, adjusted for position
wOBA: Weighted on-base average
I’m slotting him as a 3B here since that’s the position the Yankees will most likely need him most frequently for. The baseline projection is yucky, but the 65% forecast is fine and would make him an asset. If he’s used primarily against LHP that helps him get closer to that 65% forecast if you believe what his regressed platoon splits for wOBA say.
| % | wOBA vs L | wOBA vs R |
| 80% | .365 | .341 |
| 65% | .336 | .314 |
| Baseline | .307 | .287 |
| 35% | .278 | .260 |
| 20% | .249 | .233 |
He’s also versatile defensively, having played all over the field. Here are his defensive projections at the positions he’s played over the last four seasons.
| player | pos | Inn | DRS | UZR | TZ | ZR | avg |
| Bill Hall | LF | 160 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -2 | -1 |
| Bill Hall | 2B | 248 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -3 | -4 |
| Bill Hall | CF | 152 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Bill Hall | 3B | 370 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Bill Hall | SS | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bill Hall | RF | 69 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
DRS: John Dewan’s defensive runs saved
UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating
TZ: Total Zone
ZR: Zone Rating
Sample size and defensive metric limitations apply as always, but he seems like he’s capable of playing passable defense all over the field.
He doesn’t address the Yankees’ need for a LH DH, but he does make the idea of a rotating DH more realistic since he can spell just about everyone on the field. Provided he comes cheap, he seems like a decent fit for this roster.
]]>
The Yankees have sent personnel to see Hughes in California this winter and, while they didn’t ask Hughes to strip down to check out what type of shape he is in, the reports are that he looks “great.”
Whew. I was afraid the Yankees were going to cut into our Naked Phil Hughes traffic…
On one hand, if Hughes comes into camp in great shape and has a great year, I’ll be ecstatic. On the other hand, I’ll wonder if the only reason he did so poorly last year was because he didn’t bother conditioning himself? If that’s the case, you could make the case that Hughes cost the Yankees Jesus Montero, right?
]]>It says this.
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL East | NYA | 92 | 70 | 785 | 682 | 45.3% | 20.3% | 10.4% | 76.0% |
| AL East | BOS | 90 | 72 | 830 | 750 | 27.9% | 26.1% | 10.8% | 64.8% |
| AL East | TAM | 88 | 74 | 717 | 646 | 23.7% | 21.2% | 12.2% | 57.1% |
| AL East | TOR | 81 | 81 | 723 | 727 | 3.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 16.7% |
| AL East | BAL | 70 | 92 | 694 | 806 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL Central | DET | 84 | 78 | 747 | 708 | 43.0% | 2.4% | 10.1% | 55.4% |
| AL Central | CLE | 83 | 79 | 722 | 708 | 30.6% | 2.9% | 7.8% | 41.3% |
| AL Central | CHA | 79 | 83 | 686 | 703 | 15.2% | 1.5% | 4.2% | 20.9% |
| AL Central | KC | 79 | 83 | 691 | 714 | 10.8% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 16.9% |
| AL Central | MIN | 68 | 94 | 693 | 813 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| AL West | LAA | 87 | 75 | 719 | 663 | 43.7% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 61.2% |
| AL West | TEX | 87 | 75 | 765 | 707 | 38.2% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 58.6% |
| AL West | OAK | 82 | 80 | 682 | 674 | 14.9% | 3.1% | 7.4% | 25.3% |
| AL West | SEA | 76 | 86 | 649 | 689 | 3.2% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 5.5% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL East | PHI | 90 | 72 | 689 | 615 | 44.8% | 16.5% | 10.7% | 72.0% |
| NL East | ATL | 89 | 73 | 668 | 608 | 38.2% | 19.2% | 9.9% | 67.3% |
| NL East | WAS | 83 | 79 | 645 | 634 | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 29.2% |
| NL East | FLA | 80 | 82 | 682 | 690 | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 16.3% |
| NL East | NYN | 74 | 88 | 630 | 680 | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 3.2% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL Central | CIN | 89 | 73 | 719 | 647 | 60.4% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 79.7% |
| NL Central | STL | 84 | 78 | 708 | 681 | 24.6% | 10.7% | 7.0% | 42.2% |
| NL Central | MIL | 81 | 81 | 678 | 672 | 13.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 27.5% |
| NL Central | PIT | 72 | 90 | 657 | 732 | 1.6% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.8% |
| NL Central | CHN | 70 | 92 | 668 | 761 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| NL Central | HOU | 66 | 96 | 617 | 749 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Div | Team | W | L | RF | RA | Div | WC 1 | WC 2 | PL% |
| NL West | COL | 85 | 77 | 749 | 711 | 32.1% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 49.4% |
| NL West | ARI | 85 | 77 | 685 | 656 | 30.8% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 48.9% |
| NL West | SF | 85 | 77 | 629 | 606 | 29.6% | 5.4% | 11.3% | 46.3% |
| NL West | LAN | 76 | 86 | 618 | 659 | 4.1% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 8.2% |
| NL West | SD | 75 | 87 | 608 | 653 | 3.4% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 6.4% |
Div: Percent of time team won division
WC 1: Percent of time team won first wild card
WC 2: Percent of time team won second wild card
We still don’t know if there will be a second wild card yet, so you can chop off that column and subtract that percentage from the team’s over playoff percentage.
Because Marcel regresses more heavily than other projections and because it assumes every one who hasn’t played in MLB projects as league average, you see a tighter spread here than you’ll see in other projected standings. The standard deviation for team wins in my last CAIRO projections was about 9. In this version it’s 7.1. That may be more realistic if you think about how little we really know about how good/bad players and teams are, even though what will actually happen in 2012 will show a much bigger spread more in line with other projected standings.
Here are the average win totals for the placings in each division and for the two wild cards.
| Div | Place | Avg W |
| AL East | 1 | 96 |
| AL East | 2 | 91 |
| AL East | 3 | 86 |
| AL East | 4 | 80 |
| AL East | 5 | 69 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL Central | 1 | 89 |
| AL Central | 2 | 83 |
| AL Central | 3 | 79 |
| AL Central | 4 | 75 |
| AL Central | 5 | 67 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| AL West | 1 | 92 |
| AL West | 2 | 86 |
| AL West | 3 | 81 |
| AL West | 4 | 74 |
| AL WC 1 | 91 | |
| AL WC2 | 88 | |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL East | 1 | 94 |
| NL East | 2 | 88 |
| NL East | 3 | 83 |
| NL East | 4 | 78 |
| NL East | 5 | 72 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL Central | 1 | 92 |
| NL Central | 2 | 85 |
| NL Central | 3 | 80 |
| NL Central | 4 | 74 |
| NL Central | 5 | 69 |
| NL Central | 6 | 63 |
| Div | Avg W | |
| NL West | 1 | 91 |
| NL West | 2 | 85 |
| NL West | 3 | 81 |
| NL West | 4 | 77 |
| NL West | 5 | 71 |
| NL WC1 | 89 | |
| NL WC2 | 87 |
What this shows is that on average a team needed 96 wins to win the AL East, etc.,.
Some obvious things to consider would be:
- the difference between Yu Darvish (and other imports) and a league average pitcher
- prospects who project better than league average
- players who switched to parks that will affect their projections since Marcel does not park-adjust
Despite all that, the ordinal rankings seem reasonable. The only differences between this and CAIRO in that regard are that I have St. Louis ahead of Cincinnati and the Diamondbacks and Giants ahead of Colorado.
This is current through Francisco Cordero signing with Toronto, and assumes Prince Fielder at 1B and Miguel Cabrera playing a terrible version of 3B for Detroit in 70% of their games, and DHing in 25% of them.
]]>The Yankees have interest in lefty hitting Raul Ibanez, according to sources. Ibanez’s average dropped to .245 last season with the Phillies, but he hit 20 home runs and drove in 84 runs. Ibanez, who will turn 40 in June, has drawn interest from a number of clubs.
Ibanez recently had a productive workout with hitting guru Rudy Jaramillo and believes he has corrected flaws in his swing. Over the past six seasons, he averaged 24 home runs and 100 RBIs.
The Yankees are not expected to pursue Cuban defector Yoennis Cespedes.
When the Yankees are “not expected” to do something, they usually end up doing it.
]]>Yankees GM Brian Cashman has traded Alfonso Soriano, Nick Johnson, David Wells and Mike Lowell, but said believes Jesus Montero could be better than all of them.
“He may very well be the best player I’ve traded,” Cashman said of Montero, whom he sent to Seattle in a deal to get right-hander Michael Pineda that was finalized yesterday. “He’s that good. He’s a middle-of-the-lineup type bat.”
That means Cashman expects a lot out of Pineda, the 6-foot-7, 23-year-old who went 9-10 as a rookie last year. Cashman and Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik first discussed Pineda at the Winter Meetings last month.
Let’s hope not.
]]>And GM Brian Cashman reiterated that he likely isn’t done tinkering with the roster, since the Yankees have seven viable starting pitchers.
“I think we’re going to look at our excess pitching,” Cashman said when asked about acquiring a bat. Girardi is confident it will work out.
Let me see if I get this.
1) Trade your best hitting prospect for a pitcher
2) Talk about how you now have an excess of pitching and would like to trade it for a bat
Is that right?
]]>For Pineda, who is an imposing 6-7 and who can fire mid-90s heat, the change of address came as a shock (the deal will be officially finalized when the players pass their physicals and when visa paperwork is completed). But once the news sank in, Pineda started to envision the galaxy of stars that will play behind him.
“It’s a tremendous team, with good pitching. It’s very exciting for me — for the first time in my life, I’ll have the pleasure of playing with Alex Rodriguez, a huge star, and Derek Jeter, one of the most well-known players ever. And Mariano Rivera, (Robinson) Cano, (Mark) Teixeira, Rafael Soriano,” Pineda says in Spanish, his voice trailing off as he sifts through the Yankees’ roster. “I never thought in my life that I would be in this situation.”
I am still sad about losing Jesus Montero, but Pineda should be a lot of fun to watch.
]]>A source with knowledge of the Yankee organization’s plan for the rest of the off-season said, “It’s a waiting game now to see if A.J. can be dealt. If he is, the Yankees will hope to get a bat in return, or save enough money to get a bat.”
It is tricky, of course, because the whole baseball world knows after the Yankees acquired (pending a clean physical) Michael Pineda from the Seattle Mariners and signed free agent Hiroki Kuroda that the next move Cashman would hope to make is to offload Burnett and a sizeable portion of the $33 million he is owed over the next two seasons.
]]>
Participating in Jeter’s annual celebrity golf tournament on a picturesque day at the Avila Golf and Country Club, Sabathia appeared to have slimmed down a bit and said he was already planning adjustments to his routine that will help him stay strong down the stretch. One of those things, he said, is constantly monitoring his diet.
Sabathia lost about 30 pounds last winter and entered Spring Training in excellent shape, but he appeared to have put that weight back on by the end of the year. After posting a 2.72 ERA and 1.160 WHIP the first half of the season, he went 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.331 WHIP the rest of the way.
A more conditioned CC is obviously a good thing. But I’m not really sold on the idea that weight gain had any significant influence on CC’s second half numbers.
Also, Gardner and Yankees agree to $2.8 million deal.
$2.8 million might cover the value of Gardner’s 2012 defense . . . through May.
]]>“I think the vision for us as a team is now ... you want the DH spot to be one that’s kind of a revolving door,” he said in an interview with ESPNdeportes’ Alvaro Morales. “I think a lot of us at some point or another, in such a long season, are going occupy that spot.
“But for me, I’m really excited about playing third base.”
Rodriguez probably had his best defensive season at 3B in 2011, at least if you believe the various fielding metrics. The question is whether or not he can stay healthy all year if he’s playing 3B full-time. It seems to me that hip and knee injuries aren’t the kind of thing that will be helped by the lateral movement involved in playing 3B, but then again they don’t seem to be the kind of thing that can be avoided by DHing, since he’ll be putting plenty of stress on both in the batter’s box.
The Yankees should plan to get 450 PA from Rodriguez at best. That means they need a viable backup who can play 3B full-time for a month or two if necessary. I suppose that could be Eduardo Nunez if he can stop playing heinous defense, but I’m not sure how likely that is. I don’t think Eric Chavez is the guy, because he’s not really a good bet to stay healthy and I don’t even know if he’s got any offense left in him. If Rodriguez can play more than that, great. But they shouldn’t plan around him playing 150 games in 2012.
With the news that Carlos Pena is now off the market, the Yankees’ options for DH look a bit thinner, so I’m hoping they do something soon. I’m still hoping for Wilson Betemit, but I’d be surprised if that’s what they do.
]]>And with the addition of Kuroda and Michael Pineda to the rotation, the Yankees certainly would appear to have a surplus of starting pitching.
In that case, someone—either Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett or Freddy Garcia—has to go somewhere. It would be silly, of course, to ask you which should go. That is one vote Mr. Burnett would win in a landslide. But moving an underachieving 35-year-old pitcher with $33 million remaining on his contract is about as easy as moving a grand piano up five flights of stairs.
So it’s more likely going to be Hughes or Garcia. Hughes, obviously, has value in the bullpen. Freddy has never really worked there. So it would seem that Garcia is the more likely candidate if the Yankees chose to trade a pitcher for a DH. (Don’t ask me who they would get because I’m through trying to guess the GM’s next move; as in the Pineda deal, I assume Cashman will come up with a name none of us have thought of.)
I think trading Hughes now is a bad idea because his value is probably the lowest it’s ever been. I still think he’s got a chance to be a #2/#3 starter but his window of opportunity is closing. With CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Ivan Nova under team control for the next five years and with Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances working their way towards the majors another bad season probably pushes him into the bullpen or even out of the organization.
]]>