Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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NJ.com: Yankees are Cuban slugger’s preferred landing spot, but ...
(30 Comments - 2/11/2016 9:07:35 am)

Yahoo: Suddenly frugal Yankees playing long game with eye on Bryce Harper
(97 Comments - 2/9/2016 8:38:54 am)

NJ.com: Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez ‘just can’t’ play defense anymore, report says
(21 Comments - 2/7/2016 4:59:59 pm)

NJ.com: Could Yankees’ Mark Teixeira be around in 2017? Maybe now
(20 Comments - 2/4/2016 12:04:02 am)

NY Post: Yankees’ Greg Bird to miss 2016 after shoulder surgery
(57 Comments - 2/3/2016 11:20:59 am)

USA Today: Organizational report: Yankees counting on big-ticket stars
(15 Comments - 2/1/2016 3:11:15 pm)

Newsday: A-Rod, at 40, raring to go as Yankees’ spring training approaches
(35 Comments - 1/31/2016 9:49:11 pm)

CBS Sports: Yankees are the only team not to sign an MLB free agent this offseason
(44 Comments - 1/29/2016 10:31:03 am)

TGS NY: For Yankees, replacing Adam Warren—on and off the mound—won’t be easy
(17 Comments - 1/28/2016 1:34:19 pm)

Minor League Ball: New York Yankees Top 20 prospects for 2016
(29 Comments - 1/26/2016 11:11:17 am)


Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, January 26, 2016

TGS NY: For Yankees, replacing Adam Warren—on and off the mound—won’t be easy

There may not be a nicer man in baseball than Adam Warren. But though he was respected by the Yankees’ hierarchy, he always seemed to be an afterthought in the team’s plans. The topper came at the end of June last season, when he was lifted from the starting rotation, even though his ERA was 3.59, while CC Sabathia’s was 5.65.

There was neither a public complaint or a peep from Warren. He just went to the bullpen, did his job and the Yankees finally restored him back to the rotation in the middle of September.

Of all the Yankees who started 17 or more games, Warren’s 3.66 ERA only trailed Masahiro Tanaka’s 3.51. (Luis Severino had a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts.) His success led to the Yankees filling their biggest offseason need, as they traded him to the Chicago Cubs to acquire a starting second baseman in Starlin Castro.

Warren, 28, is the kind of guy you may not appreciate fully until he is gone. In 162 games, a solid swing man, with no whine in him, is in the words of Yankees GM Brian Cashman, a “tremendous asset.”

“He always did everything he was asked,” Cashman said. “That’s how he is wired.”

I’m hoping Ivan Nova can fill the Warren role reasonably well.  I haven’t seen anything out of Bryan Mitchell aside from velocity that makes me think he’s going to be any better than he was last year.  But you never know with pitchers.

--Posted at 12:16 pm by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)




Monday, January 25, 2016

Minor League Ball: New York Yankees Top 20 prospects for 2016

1) Gary Sanchez, C, Grade B+: Age 23, hit .274/.330/.485 with 18 homers, 29 walks, 78 strikeouts in 365 at-bats in Double-A/Triple-A, threw out 37% of stealers with significant reductions in passed ball and error rates as receiving improved. Can stay behind the plate, getting to his power more often, and seems to have matured emotionally after previous problems.

2) Jorge Mateo, SS, Grade B+: Age 20, hit .278/.345/.392 between Low-A and High-A with strong run late (.321/.374/.452 for Tampa), stole 82 bases, 43/98 BB/K in 449 at-bats. Top-shelf speed and uses it well, may or may not develop more power, tools fit at shortstop but needs more polish as you’d expect given his age. You can make a good case to rank him ahead of Sanchez and I may ultimately do so when the Top 150 prospects list comes out in March.

3) Aaron Judge, OF, Grade B+/B: Age 23 (24 in April), hit .284/.350/.516 with 12 homers in 250 at-bats in Double-A then .224/.308/.373 with eight homers in 228 at-bats in Triple-A. Huge 6-7 wingspan and the power to match, has some pure hitting skills though Triple-A pitchers were able to contain him more often than not, an under-rated fielder. Impact power but still uncertain what his batting average and OBP will look like.

4) James Kaprielian, RHP, Grade B+/B: Age 21 (22 in March), first round pick out of UCLA, ace of the staff there, good curve, good slider, good change-up, throws strikes, main question revolves around fastball which was 88-92 in college but hit 93-96 in the New York-Penn League. Very polished; an Aaron Nola-like rapid rise is possible under the right conditions.

5) Domingo Acevedo, RHP, Grade B: Age 21, posted 1.69 ERA with 53/15 K/BB in 48 innings in New York-Penn League, huge guy (6-6, 240) with huge fastball (95-100 MPH, peaking at 102-103 according to some reports), good change-up, breaking ball is inconsistent. Questions about command and long-term role, could be dominant ace-type if breaking ball comes along, perhaps a closer if it doesn’t.

You can go to the link to see 6-20.

The Yankees don’t have any ‘A’ prospects according to this list, but their top 10 prospects all range from a B+ to a B-, which is good.

--Posted at 7:35 am by SG / 29 Comments | - (0)




Friday, January 22, 2016

NYDN: Yoenis Cespedes prefers to stay in New York, calls Yankees as Mets talk upping contract offer

He’s played in four cities now,” said a person close to the situation, “and he’s told friends that he felt more at home in New York than anywhere else by far. It’s a great city for the Latin guys.”

To that end, another source said that Cespedes’ agents, the Roc Nation group, reached out to the Yankees on Thursday to tell them of the slugger’s desire to stay in New York, and ask if they’d be willing to jump in with a three-year offer.

All indications are that the Yankees have no such intentions, but the scenario itself is revealing and perhaps encouraging to the Mets.

I would certainly be interested in Cespedes on a three year deal if that was really an option, but if the team’s primary goal is getting below the luxury tax threshold, then it’s not an option.

--Posted at 9:21 am by SG / 60 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, January 21, 2016

CAIRO 2016 v0.1

I honestly didn’t think I would get around to doing CAIRO this year, but for those patient enough to wait, it’s here.

So with that done, i can finally try and project the Yankees as of this point in time.  Here’s how that looks.

Player Pos PA avg/obp/slg Outs BR oWAR Def
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 550 .262/.320/.379 376 57 1.5 1
Brett Gardner LF 575 .256/.332/.400 381 65 1.1 1
Carlos Beltran RF 500 .262/.321/.427 344 59 1.3 -8
Mark Teixeira 1B 450 .238/.332/.463 306 60 1.4 4
Alex Rodriguez DH 450 .247/.340/.434 303 57 0.7 0
Brian McCann C 525 .235/.307/.413 370 59 2.8 0
Chase Headley 3B 600 .252/.328/.381 414 65 1.9 4
Starlin Castro 2B 600 .272/.314/.405 425 65 1.9 2
Didi Gregorius SS 515 .256/.316/.377 352 53 1.8 2
Starters 4765 3271 540 14.4 7
Aaron Hicks OF 375 .251/.330/.391 255 41 1.3 0
Dustin Ackley UT 300 .241/.299/.395 212 31 0.3 0
Gary Sanchez C 150 .231/.283/.383 109 14 0.5 0
Greg Bird 1B 125 .238/.311/.421 87 14 0.2 0
Pete Kozma IF 125 .215/.282/.311 91 9 0.0 0
Rob Refsnyder 2B 50 .256/.325/.388 35 5 0.2 -1
Ben Gamel OF 38 .244/.300/.358 27 3 0.0 0
Mason Williams OF 15 .223/.285/.312 11 1 0.0 0
Bench 1178 828 120 2.4 -1
Team Total 5943 4098 660 16.7 6

CAIRO has taken the underlying assumptions and assumed the Yankees will score 100 fewer runs than last year.  Does that seem too pessimistic?  Maybe, but that’s what it says.

Here’s how the pitching looks:

Player Role IP R HR BB K RA ERA FIP WAR
Masahiro Tanaka SP1 175 78 25 34 163 4.01 3.65 3.82 3.1
Michael Pineda SP2 175 76 21 28 158 3.95 3.70 3.44 3.2
Nathan Eovaldi SP3 170 79 14 49 127 4.22 4.02 3.65 2.6
Luis Severino SP4 170 76 13 56 154 4.05 3.78 3.45 2.9
CC Sabathia SP5 130 71 21 38 111 4.91 4.61 4.55 0.9
Ivan Nova SP6 100 54 13 32 75 4.80 4.63 4.52 0.9
Bryan Mitchell SP7 50 30 5 25 40 5.48 5.04 4.40 0.0
Luis Cessa SP8 20 13 2 6 15 5.91 5.45 4.21 -0.1
Starters 990 478 115 267 842 13.6
Aroldis Chapman CL 65 19 4 30 102 2.64 2.49 2.38 1.9
Andrew Miller SU 65 20 6 22 97 2.78 2.42 2.55 1.8
Dellin Betances SU 75 21 5 31 109 2.60 2.29 2.54 2.2
Nick Goody MR 60 26 6 26 68 3.93 3.63 3.61 0.8
Jacob Lindgren MR 50 20 5 24 59 3.58 3.37 3.54 0.9
Chasen Shreve MR 45 21 6 20 48 4.16 3.88 4.09 0.6
James Pazos MR 45 18 3 19 44 3.63 3.37 3.33 0.8
Branden Pinder MR 30 15 4 12 26 4.57 4.28 4.36 0.2
Nick Rumbelow MR 25 13 3 8 25 4.73 4.34 3.55 0.1
Vicente Campos MR 0 0 0 0 0 7.25 6.72 4.97 0.0
Relievers 460 174 41 193 578 9.4
Team Total 1450 655 155 458 1415 23.0

Assuming that the Yankees will score 660 runs, with a pitching staff that would allow 655 runs combined with a defense that would save about six runs relative to average leaves with you with a .508 winning percentage, or a roughly 82 win team.  You can argue that having the bullpen they have can help them outperform in enough close games that they are maybe closer to an 84 or 85 win team.  Then they just need a few players to exceed their projection here and they should be right in the middle of the wild card race, with a puncher’s chance at the division.

There’s a team tab on the spreadsheet where you can modify the above depth charts for the Yankees in terms of playing time.  You can even add (unlike the real Yankees) and remove players if you want.  Anything highlighted in yellow is adjustable.  Just make sure that your team batting outs add up to 4100 and your team innings add up to 1450 if you want a realistic projected final win total.

You can download the full spreadsheet at the following link:
cairo_2016_v0.1.xls

--Posted at 10:04 am by SG / 55 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, January 19, 2016

NJ.com: MLB arbitration: Yankees, Didi Gregorius agree on $2.4-million salary

The Yankees and shortstop Didi Gregorius have avoided salary arbitration, agreeing to a one-year, $$2.425-million deal, according to the YES Network’s Jack Curry.

The sides were unable to come to an agreement Friday. Early last week, Gregorius filed for a $2.525-million 2016 salary. On Friday, the Yankees filed at $2.3 million. 

The resolution doesn’t come as a surprise. Considering the gulf between the Yankees and Gregorius was so small, and that the Yankees haven’t taken a player to court over arbitration since Chien-Ming Wang in 2009, it was bound to happen.

Still unsigned are Aroldis Chapman, Ivan Nova and Nathan Eovaldi.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take Chapman and Nova to arbitration since neither is likely to be a Yankee after 2016, but I assume they’ll agree with Eovaldi shortly.

--Posted at 11:34 am by SG / 44 Comments | - (0)




Friday, January 15, 2016

Lohud: Yankees about to go full year without Major League signing

Here’s what I’ve been told: The Yankees are not planning to sign a Major League free agent this offseason.

I’m certainly not the only reporter hearing such a thing. The Yankees have taken on some money in trades, and they’re about to pay a bunch of money to arbitration eligible players — and they committed a ton of money two years ago — but it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that the Yankees will not sign a single Major League free agent this winter.

The Yankees’ last Major League free agent signing was technically Garrett Jones during weird situation last season when the Yankees released, then re-signed, then released Jones again, all within a few days.

The Yankees’ last normal Major League signing was Stephen Drew to a one-year, $5-million deal which became official last January 16, exactly a year ago tomorrow.

Happy Hal-iversary!

--Posted at 11:03 am by SG / 68 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, January 14, 2016

NYDN: Harper: Yankees have better farm system than Mets right now

Now that both the Mets and Yankees have graduated some of their top prospects from the minors the last couple of years, which of the two local teams has the better farm system?

MLBpipeline.com, which ranks individual prospects and organizations as well, comes out with rankings for 2016 at the end of this month, and Jim Callis, one of their evaluators, says the Yankees will fare better than the Mets.

“They’re both in pretty good shape, considering some of the guys who have gone to the majors,’’ Callis said on Wednesday. “But I like the Yankees more than the Mets right now. The Yankees should be somewhere in the 6-to-10 range (among all farm systems in baseball), and the Mets will be more in the 11-to-15 range.’‘

Woo!  What do they win for that?

--Posted at 12:53 pm by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)



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