Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Yankees (37-26) @ Athletics (38-27), Tuesday, June 11, 2013, 10:05pm
NYY:CC Sabathia (#52, 32, LHP, 6-4, 3.74) vs. OAK:Bartolo Colon (#40, 40, RHP, 7-2, 3.14)
Lineups
Yankees
Brett Gardner(L), CF: .284/.349/.453, 2.3 bWAR
Robinson Cano(L), 2B: .272/.339/.500, 2.2 bWAR
Mark Teixeira(S), 1B: .167/.250/.444, -0.1 bWAR
Travis Hafner(L), DH: .242/.352/.484, 0.8 bWAR
Kevin Youkilis(R), 3B: .239/.314/.380, 0.1 bWAR
Lyle Overbay(L), RF: .250/.294/.457, 0.5 bWAR
Ichiro Suzuki(L), LF: .259/.300/.335, 0.6 bWAR
Jayson Nix(R), SS: .256/.324/.311, 0.4 bWAR
Chris Stewart(R), C: .276/.333/.367, 0.5 bWAR
Lineup Total: .260/.325/.421, 7.3 bWAR
Athletics
Coco Crisp(S), CF: .290/.381/.489, 2.4 bWAR
Jed Lowrie(S), 2B: .302/.378/.418, 0.9 bWAR
Yoenis Cespedes(R), LF: .241/.308/.493, 1.4 bWAR
Josh Donaldson(R), 3B: .324/.393/.521, 3 bWAR
Nate Freiman(R), 1B: .262/.330/.405, -0.2 bWAR
Chris Young(R), DH: .174/.257/.342, -0.8 bWAR
Josh Reddick(L), RF: .189/.286/.299, 0.4 bWAR
Derek Norris(R), C: .194/.313/.302, 0.3 bWAR
Adam Rosales(R), SS: .219/.305/.381, 0.5 bWAR
Lineup Total: .254/.337/.422, 7.9 bWAR
Compared to Bartolo Colon, CC Sabathia has fewer wins, a higher ERA, a slower fastball and probably fewer pounds. On the plus side he’s making a lot more money despite not being as good, he’s taller, and he’s not a dirty rotten scoundrel of a PED user.
Really, the best thing about this Yankee offense in these West Coast games is they have us tucked in bed by midnight. I don’t expect that to change tonight.
It is Better to Be Lucky than Good; The Story of the 2013 Yankees through June 9
I know the Yankees have won games at a pace that would translate to about 95 wins. I know the pitching staff has done a great job of preventing runs and the team has won a very high percentage of their close games to stay in the thick of the divisional race and postseason chase.
I also know that the Yankees are lucky to be where they are right now, and logic says it can’t continue if they don’t start playing better.
Let’s start by considering their Pythagenpat performance. Pythagenpat is a more accurate version of Bill James’s Pythagorean expectation which states that a team’s runs scored and runs allowed are a better barometer of how good they are than their actual won-loss record.
The Yankees have won 58.7% of their games so far this year.
The Yankees have scored 252 runs and allowed 236 runs. This translates to an expected winning percentage of 52.9%.
But let’s go a little deeper than that. Linear weights translate the offensive components that a team has put up to an estimated run value. You can use this for the pitching staff as well. It uses the context-neutral average values of the positive and negative events during a team’s games to calculate how many runs their performance has theoretically been worth. The reason that this can be useful is it can separate out the parts of a team’s performance that are sustainable from the parts of a team’s performance that are not necessarily due to skill.
What does that mean? Teams that are performing better in more important situations are likely overperforming and are probably likely to get worse as the season moves on if they play at the same level. The converse is also true.
According to linear weights, the Yankees have scored about three more runs than their component stats support. That’s not a big deal and it indicates to me they haven’t been particularly lucky on offense. The bigger concern for me is that the pitching staff has allowed 14 fewer runs than supported by their component stats. Some of that can be credited to the bullpen stranding runners or pitchers pitching better with runners on base, but the question there is how much of that is likely to continue? Yankee pitchers so far have held opposing hitters to a line of .218/.287/.348 with runners in scoring position. Last year, that same line was .240/.318/.380. This year the opposing lineup has hit .245/.301/.388 against the Yankees with runners on base. Last year? .252/.314/.400.
If you go by linear weights, the Yankees should have about 249 runs scored and 250 runs allowed. That would translate to a 49.8% winning percentage.
The good news is that there’s no reason to think what the Yankees have done so far is what they’ll continue to do over the rest of the season. Adding Curtis Granderson and Derek Jeter back should be significant upgrades. If MLB doesn’t get their druthers adding Alex Rodriguez and Francisco Cervelli could help some more. Some of their players could theoretically play better, like Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis. There aren’t really any offensive players overperforming significantly aside from maybe Chris Stewart and perhaps Brett Gardner so they should not regress all that much there.
The pitching is more likely to regress but they may add some pitching depth in the form of Michael Pineda at some point in the second half. And maybe Ivan Nova figures things out if they need another arm in the rotation.
Whether they have been exceedingly lucky to this point is less important than how good they will be in the future. In the meantime, they are winning real games even if they are not winning spreadsheet games. There are a lot of parallels to the 2012 Orioles, a team that seemed to be fluky for most of the year but ended the year playing about as well as any team in baseball. Of course those Orioles had more young talent and that’s not something the Yankees really have much of right now.
The Yankees are not a bad team. But if, like me, you’ve felt that you’ve been watching a mediocre team so far this year, it’s because in a lot of ways you have been.
Monday, June 10, 2013
TSBG vs. TPBG
As Jeff Sullivan wrote about here, Brett Gardner’s been a different player in 2013 than he’d been prior to this season. Sullivan goes through some of Gardner’s plate discipline stats which show that he’s hitting more fly balls and being more aggressive. Here’s a comparison of some of his other stats.
| Dates | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | k | avg | obp | slg | iso |
| 6/30/2008-10/3/2012 | 1619 | 1393 | 370 | 52 | 23 | 15 | 178 | 18 | 271 | .266 | .355 | .368 | .103 |
| 4/1/2013-6/9/2013 | 265 | 236 | 67 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 51 | .284 | .349 | .453 | .169 |
| Dates | GB% | FB% | LD% | IFFB% | BABIP | xBABIP | BB/PA | K/PA | br | br/650 |
| 6/30/2008-10/3/2012 | 51.3% | 29.5% | 19.1% | 4.2% | .332 | .317 | 11.0% | 16.7% | 200 | 80 |
| 4/1/2013-6/9/2013 | 38.9% | 34.1% | 23.2% | 3.8% | .341 | .336 | 8.7% | 19.2% | 35 | 87 |
iso: isolated power (slg - avg)
GB%: percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
FB%: percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
LD%: percentage of batted balls that were line drives
IFFB%: percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
BABIP: batting average on balls in play
xBABIP: expected BABIP (using batted ball distribution)
br: Linear weights batting runs
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
As you can see from the data, Gardner is hitting mroe fly balls and line drives and his higher BABIP is consistent with his higher expected BABIP. The formula I’m using for expected BABIP only looks at batted ball types and does not account for a hitter’s speed although Gardner’s speed is less advantageous when he’s not hitting as many ground balls since you can’t beat out a fly ball. He’s walking a bit less on a rate basis and striking out a bit more but if he were able to sustain the way he’s playing now he’d be worth about seven runs more offensively per 650 plate appearances than he’s been prior to this year.
With Robinson Cano having a somewhat disappointing year so far, Brett Gardner’s almost certainly been the Yankees most valuable position player. In seasons past, Gardner’s always been valuable but it was primarily because of his defense. This year there are only three AL CF who have been more valuable than him offensively (Mike Trout, Coco Crisp and Adam Jones).
Since Gardner’s now tallied 63 games this year, I figured I’d go through his game logs and find the best 63 game samples of each season in his career so far to see how 2013 compares.
| start | end | G | AB | PA | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | GDP | SB | CS | AVG | obp | slg | ops |
| 2011-04-26 | 2011-07-03 | 63 | 185 | 218 | 58 | 41 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 14 | 26 | 30 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 7 | .314 | .402 | .459 | .861 |
| 2010-04-21 | 2010-07-04 | 63 | 218 | 251 | 70 | 55 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 25 | 28 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 4 | .321 | .400 | .454 | .854 |
| 2009-04-29 | 2009-07-22 | 63 | 135 | 158 | 41 | 32 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 4 | .304 | .394 | .452 | .845 |
| 2013-04-01 | 2013-06-09 | 63 | 236 | 265 | 67 | 43 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 27 | 23 | 51 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 5 | .284 | .349 | .453 | .802 |
And this is the thing that should be a cautionary flag for those of us getting overly excited about what Gardner’s done so far this season. He’s had 63 game stretches before that were better than what he’s done so far this year as measured by OPS although the shape of his performance so far this year is a little different.
There’s enough evidence of a tangible change in approach to think we’re seeing The Powerful Brett Gardner instead of The Speedy Brett Gardner but we really won’t know for a while. Let’s hope he can keep it up.
Sunday, June 9, 2013
Yankees.com: Stewart clutch in ninth as Yanks win series in Seattle
SEATTLE—Chris Stewart’s ninth-inning single drove home Ichiro Suzuki with the go-ahead run, lifting the Yankees to a 2-1 victory over the Mariners on Sunday afternoon at Safeco Field.
Stewart provided the game’s first scoring since the second inning with a ground ball through the left side of the infield off Yoervis Medina, who was handed the loss in relief after Seattle ace Felix Hernandez held the Yankees to one run over seven strong innings.
The early portion of the contest saw Yankees starter David Phelps and Hernandez locked into a tight pitchers’ duel, with each hurler permitting just a second-inning run—Phelps over six innings and Hernandez through seven frames.
The Yankees—who won three of four games in the series from Seattle—manufactured their run off Hernandez in the second inning, as Jayson Nix singled and stole second base. Stewart advanced the runner with a textbook bunt single down the third-base line, and Brett Gardner’s single to center field knocked home the run.SEATTLE—Chris Stewart’s ninth-inning single drove home Ichiro Suzuki with the go-ahead run, lifting the Yankees to a 2-1 victory over the Mariners on Sunday afternoon at Safeco Field.
Stewart provided the game’s first scoring since the second inning with a ground ball through the left side of the infield off Yoervis Medina, who was handed the loss in relief after Seattle ace Felix Hernandez held the Yankees to one run over seven strong innings.
The early portion of the contest saw Yankees starter David Phelps and Hernandez locked into a tight pitchers’ duel, with each hurler permitting just a second-inning run—Phelps over six innings and Hernandez through seven frames.
The Yankees—who won three of four games in the series from Seattle—manufactured their run off Hernandez in the second inning, as Jayson Nix singled and stole second base. Stewart advanced the runner with a textbook bunt single down the third-base line, and Brett Gardner’s single to center field knocked home the run.
Nice way to cap off a series win, especially since the Yankees’ offense was MIA for the whole series. David Phelps gave the team another strong start and is making it awfully hard to remove him from the rotation.
In other news, Michael Pineda’s first rehab start went pretty well as he sat around 92-93 mph and peaked at 95 over four and one-third scoreless innings. This team doesn’t really need starting pitching right now but we’ll see if that’s still the case in a month or so when Pineda could be ready to return.
Yankees (36-26) @ Mariners (27-36), Sunday, June 9, 2013, 4:10pm
NYY:David Phelps (#41, 26, RHP, 4-3, 4.15) vs. SEA:Felix Hernandez (#34, 27, RHP, 7-4, 2.58)
Lineups
Yankees
Brett Gardner(L), CF: .273/.340/.442, 2.1 bWAR
Robinson Cano(L), 2B: .276/.338/.506, 2 bWAR
Mark Teixeira(S), 1B: .194/.286/.516, 0 bWAR
Travis Hafner(L), DH: .247/.354/.493, 0.8 bWAR
Vernon Wells(R), LF: .241/.285/.409, 0.4 bWAR
Ichiro Suzuki(L), RF: .263/.301/.340, 0.6 bWAR
Jayson Nix(R), 3B: .255/.324/.311, 0.5 bWAR
Reid Brignac(L), SS: .219/.250/.315, -0.8 bWAR
Chris Stewart(R), C: .266/.327/.362, 0.3 bWAR
Lineup Total: .257/.319/.414, 5.9 bWAR
Mariners
TBA
Congratulations to Felix Hernandez on his second career perfect game.
Saturday, June 8, 2013
Yankees.com: Pettitte dominates Mariners for 250th career victory
SEATTLE—Andy Pettitte held the Mariners to just three hits over 7 1/3 innings, logging the 250th victory of his career in leading the Yankees to a 3-1 victory on Saturday afternoon at Safeco Field.Pettitte was in vintage form as he surpassed Vic Willis for sole possession of 43rd place on the all-time wins list, retiring the first nine batters he faced and permitting hits only in the fourth and eighth innings.Michael Morse’s fourth-inning sacrifice fly accounted for the only run Seattle managed off Pettitte, who walked none and struck out six to pick up his fifth victory of the season.The Yankees scored three runs over 6 1/3 innings against Mariners starter Joe Saunders, never trailing in the contest and posting their fifth victory in their last six games.
It’s a miracle.
Yankees (35-26) @ Mariners (27-35), Saturday, June 8, 2013, 4:10pm
NYY:Andy Pettitte (#46, 41, LHP, 4-3, 4.17) vs. SEA:Joe Saunders (#23, 32, LHP, 4-5, 5.20)
Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF
2. Jayson Nix (R) SS
3. Mark Teixeira (S) DH
4. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
5. Vernon Wells (R) LF
6. Kevin Youkilis (R) 1B
7. Ichiro Suzuki (L) RF
8. David Adams (R) 3B
9. Chris Stewart (R) C
Mariners
1. Jason Bay (R) RF
2. Kyle Seager (L) 3B
3. Kendrys Morales (S) 1B
4. Michael Morse (R) DH
5. Raul Ibanez (L) LF
6. Nick Franklin (S) 2B
7. Michael Saunders (L) CF
8. Brendan Ryan (R) SS
9. Brandon Bantz (R) C
I’m sure the offense will bounce back today. When a dominant starter like Jeremy Bonderman shuts you down there’s no shame in it.
Yankees.com: Yanks’ win streak halted by Bonderman, Mariners
The command of Hiroki Kuroda’s slider vanished in the fourth inning on Friday, just long enough for the Mariners to take advantage and put themselves in position to catch a lucky break.
Seattle batted around for four runs in the inning, and Jeremy Bonderman made the output hold up for his first big league victory in more than two years, handing the Yankees a 4-1 loss to the Mariners at Safeco Field.
“That inning, nothing worked,” Yankees catcher Chris Stewart said. “We tried everything. It didn’t seem like he could figure anything out at that point. It’s tough; he should have only given up two runs.”
The Yankees’ four-game winning streak was snapped as all of Seattle’s damage in the fourth inning came with two outs, with Brett Gardner opening the door by misplaying a deep Michael Morse drive to left-center field that hopped the wall for a ground-rule double.
The less said about this loss the better. But boy, that fourth inning was brutal. Yes, Gardner played the double poorly, but that was still a runner on second and two outs with the #7, 8 and 9 hitters coming up and Kuroda walked the #7 and 8 hitters then gave up singles to the #9, #1 and #2 hitters. Just brutal. Sort of like the offense.
Friday, June 7, 2013
Yankees (35-25) @ Mariners (26-35), Friday, June 7, 2013, 10:10pm
NYY:Hiroki Kuroda (#18, 38, RHP, 6-4, 2.59) vs. SEA:Jeremy Bonderman (#32, 30, RHP, 0-1, 13.50)
Lineups
Yankees
Brett Gardner(L), CF: .265/.332/.426, 1.8 bWAR
Robinson Cano(L), 2B: .280/.341/.517, 2 bWAR
Mark Teixeira(S), 1B: .227/.346/.636, 0.1 bWAR
Travis Hafner(L), DH: .253/.363/.507, 0.9 bWAR
Kevin Youkilis(R), 3B: .247/.319/.388, 0.1 bWAR
Vernon Wells(R), LF: .241/.286/.415, 0.5 bWAR
Ichiro Suzuki(L), RF: .266/.302/.346, 0.8 bWAR
Reid Brignac(L), SS: .214/.247/.314, -0.8 bWAR
Chris Stewart(R), C: .273/.337/.375, 0.5 bWAR
Lineup Total: .258/.321/.430, 5.9 bWAR
Mariners
Endy Chavez(L), CF: .279/.294/.352, -0.2 bWAR
Jason Bay(R), RF: .214/.311/.414, 0.6 bWAR
Kyle Seager(L), 3B: .287/.352/.483, 1.7 bWAR
Kendrys Morales(S), 1B: .306/.367/.489, 1.6 bWAR
Raul Ibanez(L), LF: .233/.273/.514, -0.3 bWAR
Mike Morse(R), DH: .249/.314/.458, -0.7 bWAR
Nick Franklin(S), 2B: .242/.359/.485, 0.4 bWAR
Kelly Shoppach(R), C: .198/.284/.344, -0.2 bWAR
Brendan Ryan(R), SS: .217/.278/.280, 0.5 bWAR
Lineup Total: .255/.318/.430, 3.4 bWAR
The Yankee offense went to sleep after pounding six runs off Aaron Harang last night. Let’s hope they are awake today.
Draft Live Blog II: The Return of the Futurer Dissapointments
Draft starts shortly!
MLB.com coverage: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2013/draftlive_app.jsp
BA top 500: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/
MLB.com top 100: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/
There are still a few top 50 guys on the board and plenty of top 100 guys. The Yankees have been linked to BA’s 25 ranked Jon Denney who would be an incredible pick up in the 3rd round.
Yankees.com: Six-run frame plenty for Hughes in Seattle
It wasn’t just a hit parade. It was an on-base onslaught, and it helped get Phil Hughes right again.
Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira hit back-to-back homers two pitches apart, part of seven consecutive hits by the Yankees in the third inning off ambushed Mariners starter Aaron Harang on Thursday night, helping the Yankees cruise to a 6-1 win to begin a 10-game West Coast swing. New York’s season-high eight hits in the inning—sparked by a perfectly timed hit-and-run play—provided all the offense needed.
Hughes (3-4) barely blinked while allowing just three hits in seven-plus innings with seven strikeouts for his first win since May 10. The one run charged to him was unearned and scored three batters after he left in the eighth, following his second walk, then a fielder’s-choice groundout and an error.
Hughes allowed the same team that battered him out of Yankee Stadium during the first inning last month just three insignificant singles and two walks this time. It was the fewest hits he had allowed in a start since giving up two on Aug. 19, 2011, at Minnesota.
Very good win. Although it is funny to note that the Yankees ended up with 9 hits, only one outside the third inning. But obviously, the third inning was enough!
In other news, a premature welcome to the Yankees to Eric Jagielo, Aaron Judge and Ian Clarkin (premature because they still have to sign these guys - I find it hard to believe they don’t get the deals done, though). Here’s hoping we’ll see at least one of Jagielo and Judge force their way on to the Major League squad in a couple of years!
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Yankees (34-25) @ Mariners (26-34), Thursday, June 6, 2013, 10:10pm
NYY:Phil Hughes (#65, 27, RHP, 2-4, 5.37) vs. SEA:Aaron Harang (#39, 35, RHP, 2-5, 5.82)
Lineups
Yankees
Brett Gardner(L), CF: .265/.333/.429, 1.8 bWAR
Robinson Cano(L), 2B: .279/.339/.506, 1.9 bWAR
Mark Teixeira(S), 1B: .222/.364/.556, 0 bWAR
Travis Hafner(L), DH: .246/.359/.507, 0.9 bWAR
Kevin Youkilis(R), 3B: .247/.322/.383, 0.1 bWAR
Vernon Wells(R), LF: .240/.287/.418, 0.6 bWAR
Ichiro Suzuki(L), RF: .266/.303/.348, 0.7 bWAR
Jayson Nix(R), SS: .248/.318/.307, 0.1 bWAR
Austin Romine(R), C: .159/.178/.205, -0.5 bWAR
Lineup Total: .254/.319/.415, 5.6 bWAR
Mariners
Jason Bay(R), RF: .221/.318/.426, 0.7 bWAR
Kyle Seager(L), 3B: .283/.349/.478, 1.7 bWAR
Raul Ibanez(L), LF: .239/.280/.528, -0.2 bWAR
Kendrys Morales(S), 1B: .307/.368/.493, 1.7 bWAR
Mike Morse(R), DH: .254/.321/.468, -0.6 bWAR
Nick Franklin(S), 2B: .276/.400/.552, 0.5 bWAR
Michael Saunders(L), CF: .218/.304/.354, 0.3 bWAR
Kelly Shoppach(R), C: .202/.283/.351, -0.2 bWAR
Brendan Ryan(R), SS: .214/.272/.277, 0.4 bWAR
Lineup Total: .251/.321/.434, 4.3 bWAR
Oh great. It’s Hughesday. At least this means those of us on the East Coast don’t have to stay up too late.
Draft Live Blog: Future Disappointments
Draft starts shortly!
MLB.com coverage: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2013/draftlive_app.jsp
BA top 500: http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/
MLB.com top 100: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/
Hopefully the Yankees have some no-brainer’s drop into their laps.
Player A vs. Player B
| Player | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | avg | obp | slg |
| A | 72 | 62 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 20 | 2 | 2 | .161 | .254 | .226 |
| B | 138 | 130 | 17 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 7 | 32 | 2 | 0 | .292 | .326 | .462 |
NYDN: Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez refuses to pay Anthony Bosch, who then cuts deal to help MLB
The owner of the South Florida anti-aging clinic at the center of baseball’s latest doping scandal asked embattled Yankee star Alex Rodriguez for financial help after Major League Baseball filed a lawsuit that alleged he had sold performance-enhancing drugs to Major League Baseball players.
When Rodriguez rebuffed Anthony Bosch’s request for money, believed to be in the hundreds of thousands, the self-styled “biochemist” turned to a strange bedfellow — MLB.
“A-Rod refused to pay him what he wanted,” said a source. “Baseball was worried about that.”MLB reached an agreement this week for Bosch’s cooperation in its long-running investigation into one of the biggest drug scandals in baseball history and plans to meet with him on Friday.
The Daily News reported Wednesday that baseball was concerned Bosch might turn to players for financial help if MLB didn’t lock him into an agreement to testify.
“They were afraid someone else would pay him,” said the source. “Bosch is the only guy that can provide them with what they need.”
So MLB’s star witness is an extortionist as well as a drug pusher?
I mean this obviously doesn’t look good for Rodriguez but if MLB’s entire case hinges on Bosch’s testimony and evidence I’m prepared to be very skeptical.
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
So, I Guess There is Some Draft or Whatnot Happening Soon
The draft starts at 7 PM Eastern tomorrow evening and the Yankees will have 3 picks in the first round (26, 32 and 33) and a pick in the second round, totaling 4 picks on day one of the now 3 day draft extravaganza.
Mike and I have given you an article about strengths and weaknesses of the past drafting classes/player development and the evolution of the Yankees drafting strategy. You may have noticed that I left 2012 out of my strategy post, and it’s obviously a bit early to judge players drafted just 1 year ago, so Mike didn’t cover 2012 all that much either. The reason I left it out is because the new draft system with draft pools and pretty severe penalties for exceeding the assigned pools went into effect last year. The goal of these changes was to better ensure that the best talent went to the teams most in need and in part attempt to fix the hilariously bad A/B Free Agent system.
What it did do was usher in what appears to be a new draft strategy around baseball. Last year the Yankees picked up a huge arm in Hensley in the first round and ended up getting a surprise deal (signed for 1.2MM 400L under the 1.6MM slot value) due to an “abnormality” that appeared in his physical, then broke the bank for Austin Aune (signed for 1MM just under twice the slot value of 548,400). Peter O’Brien, the Yankees other 2nd rounder, signed for slightly below slot and were followed by Nathan Mikolas, Corey Black, Rob Refsnyder and Nick Goody all of whom also signed for slightly below slot (excepting Refsnyder who signed for the exact slot amount). The next 4 picks were all signed for 10 thousand dollars, well below the slot values.
In short, the Yankees did what many other teams did, grab the good prospects in the first 4-5 rounds and fill the final 5-6 picks of the first 10 rounds with cheap, sure signs. Doing this allowed teams to funnel some of the saved slot money towards the front of the draft (picks 1-5) and towards the back of the draft where the more flawed but intriguing prospect fell.
I expect the Yankees to follow a similar strategy this year, day one of the draft will be very interesting, so will the early portion of day 2. In all likely hood the second part of day 2 will be wholly unexciting with many teams picking 4th year college players who will sign for negligible bonuses. Day 3 will contain some interesting picks, but a good number will be organizational fillers and a good number won’t sign at all.
So what is different about this draft from last year’s? For one, the Yankees have 12 picks and importantly, as everyone knows, 3 of them are first round picks. They had 11 picks last year but 2 were in the 2nd round, the slot values for first round picks are significantly higher. Because of that (and some built in inflation in the slot values), The Yankees have just under 8 million dollars to spend on their top 12 picks (and any over slot signings after the 10th round) compared to slightly above 4MM last year. Last year the Yankees had the 24th largest bonus pool, this year they have the 8th largest.
This draft should be a pretty big injection of talent into the Yankees’ minor league system, hopefully the Yankees draft well and sign some great players.
I’ll be around tonight and all of tomorrow to answer questions, opine on the draft and maybe do a bit of live blogging when the draft starts. I’m sure Mike will join in at some point too.
Yankees.com: Big flies back CC, who completes sweep of Tribe
NEW YORK—The Yankees had it all working in the early innings on Wednesday afternoon at Yankee Stadium and, despite tailing off as the day went on, held on for a 6-4 sweep-clinching victory over the Indians behind ace CC Sabathia’s complete game.
New York jumped out to an early first-inning lead against Indians starter Corey Kluber when former Indian Travis Hafner crushed a two-run homer into the second deck in right field. The Bronx Bombers tacked on four more runs in the second, keyed by a three-run homer off the bat of Brett Gardner.
For much of the day, the second-inning surge seemed as if it would merely go down as insurance for Sabathia, who cruised through the first four innings. Yet with the Indians finally breaking through later in the game, Gardner’s second-inning blast ultimately played a much bigger role.
I wish the Yankees could just play Toronto and Cleveland all the time.
Indians (30-28) @ Yankees (33-25), Wednesday, June 5, 2013, 1:05pm
CLE:Corey Kluber (#28, 27, RHP, 3-3, 4.36)\ vs. NYY:CC Sabathia (#52, 32, LHP, 5-4, 3.71)
Lineups
Indians
Michael Bourn(L), CF: .303/.349/.408, 0.8 bWAR
Jason Kipnis(L), 2B: .238/.310/.440, 1.4 bWAR
Nick Swisher(S), DH: .253/.351/.447, 1.9 bWAR
Mark Reynolds(R), 3B: .247/.332/.485, 0.4 bWAR
Carlos Santana(S), 1B: .285/.394/.489, 1.8 bWAR
Mike Aviles(R), SS: .282/.308/.418, 0.6 bWAR
Michael Brantley(L), LF: .298/.357/.376, 1.2 bWAR
Yan Gomes(R), C: .291/.301/.582, 1.2 bWAR
Drew Stubbs(R), RF: .232/.289/.373, 0.9 bWAR
Lineup Total: .267/.336/.439, 10.2 bWAR
Yankees
Brett Gardner(L), CF: .259/.329/.412, 1.5 bWAR
Robinson Cano(L), 2B: .283/.340/.513, 2.1 bWAR
Mark Teixeira(S), 1B: .267/.389/.667, 0.2 bWAR
Travis Hafner(L), DH: .245/.356/.489, 0.7 bWAR
Vernon Wells(R), LF: .245/.292/.426, 0.7 bWAR
Lyle Overbay(L), RF: .250/.294/.462, 0.5 bWAR
Kevin Youkilis(R), 3B: .247/.326/.377, 0.1 bWAR
Jayson Nix(R), SS: .248/.320/.302, 0 bWAR
Chris Stewart(R), C: .271/.330/.376, 0.4 bWAR
Lineup Total: .257/.323/.433, 6.2 bWAR
Two straight wins doesn’t change the fact that this homestand has stunk. Another win today won’t change that fact either, but it’s better than the alternative.
NJ.com: McCullough: Alex Rodriguez, Francisco Cervelli among group reportedly facing MLB suspensions
NEW YORK — In an unprecedented move, Major League Baseball is preparing to suspend as many as 20 players for violating the sport’s performance-enhancing drug policy, among them Yankees superstar Alex Rodriguez, whose punishment could ban him from 100 games.
The broad penalties could signal the largest crackdown on performance-enhancing drug use in professional sports history.
After months of investigation, baseball officials broke through this week when Anthony Bosch, the director of Florida anti-aging clinic Biogenesis, agreed to cooperate with baseball officials and testify against his alleged former clients, according to a bombshell report from ESPN’s “Outside The Lines.” Bosch is expected to meet with investigators this week. The suspensions could follow before the month ends.
Does doctor/patient privilege not apply when the doctor in question is not really a doctor?
Is it sad that I’m more disappointed that Cervelli could be suspended than I am that Rodriguez could be?
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
Yankees.com: Tex remains hot, helping Phelps bounce back
NEW YORK—For the second time in as many nights, Mark Teixeira provided the big blow for the Yankees. The first baseman slugged a three-run home run during a four-run third inning, providing New York just enough offense to fend off Cleveland, 4-3, on Tuesday night.
Indians outfielder Drew Stubbs hit a three-run homer of his own in the seventh off reliever Joba Chamberlain to cut the Yankees’ lead to one run, but Cleveland wasn’t able to complete a comeback. Former Yankee Nick Swisher had a chance in the eighth with two on and no outs, but he lined into a double play before New York reliever David Robertson escaped unscathed.
I think it’s time to anoint a new seventh inning guy.
The big news tonight was not a rare Yankee win. Instead, it’s the news that MLB seeks to suspend A-Rod, Braun.
Major League Baseball will seek to suspend about 20 players connected to the Miami-area clinic at the heart of an ongoing performance-enhancing drug scandal, including Alex Rodriguez and Ryan Braun, possibly within the next few weeks, “Outside the Lines” has learned. If the suspensions are upheld, the performance-enhancing drug scandal would be the largest in American sports history.
One source familiar with the case said the commissioner’s office might seek 100-game suspensions for Rodriguez, Braun and other players, the penalty for a second doping offense. The argument, the source said, is the players’ connection to Bosch constitutes one offense, and previous statements to MLB officials denying any such connection or the use of PEDs constitute another.
IANAL, but this seems like a reach to me.