Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Looking Ahead to 2010 - Position Player Wrapup
Unfortunately I didn’t really get to finish these up in the detail I’d like to due to time constraints, so I’ll consolidate these into a few more posts, one for the position player wrap up, one for the starting pitchers, one for the relievers and then one final one for the whole team.(Click Comments to read more)
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
The 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - American League Edition
Following up on the first part of this post, here’s a look at the aggregate projections for the American League. The same caveats and disclaimers apply here as well. To see the breakdown for each projection system, check the following links.
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CHONE Edition
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition
The 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - National League Edition
Opening Day is less than a week away, so it’s time to present my annual Diamond Mind Projection blowout. The idea behind this is to take several projection systems and run the 2010 season through Diamond Mind Baseball, which I consider to be the most statistically accurate baseball simulator out there.
As you can see if you look at the prior runs, the results can be hit and miss, but that’s certainly understandable. This year, I’m using five different projection systems, and I’ve run each one 1000 times for a total of 5000 iterations.(Click Comments to read more)
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - PECOTA Edition(Click Comments to read more)
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Oliver Edition(Click Comments to read more)
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CHONE Edition(Click Comments to read more)
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - CAIRO Edition(Click Comments to read more)
2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout - Marcel Edition(Click Comments to read more)
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Looking Ahead to 2010: Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher
Since I want to get these done before the season starts, I’ll start doubling and tripling them up. So here’s a look at how Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher project for 2010.
The Yankees had an interest in bring Johnny Damon back, but his intial demands were too much for the team. With Scott Boras taking a hard-line approach (although you have to really blame Damon), they decided to look elsewhere. Elsewhere ended up being a three way trade with Detroit and Arizona that cost the Yanks Austin Jackson, Ian Kennedy and Phil Coke.
Granderson is coming off a somewhat rough season in 2009 which may have made the price for acquiring him a little less painful. At 29, he should still be relatively close to his peak. I think this was a very good move by Brian Cashman, because the Yankees bought low on someone they probably think can rebound.
In that aspect, the trade is reminiscent of the trade that brought Nick Swisher over from the White Sox last year. Swisher had a really bad year in 2008, but he was also still young enough to likely be around his peak. Of course, Swisher rebounded well, boosting his average by 30 points, his OBP by 39 points, and his slugging by 88 points.
So what do we have to look forward to for 2010? Let’s take a gander…(Click Comments to read more)
Saturday, March 27, 2010
We join this game in progress. The Yankees have an early 1-0 lead after one inning.
A small miracle has already occurred: Curtis Granderson got a hit off a lefty.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
TAMPA, Fla.—Phil Hughes is the winner of the Yankees’ fifth-starter sweepstakes, manager Joe Girardi revealed on Thursday.
Hughes, who was told earlier in the day that he would start against the Phillies on three days rest on Friday, won the job over Joba Chamberlain, Alfredo Aceves and Sergio Mitre. Chad Gaudin, another candidate, was released on Thursday.
A bit of a surprise, but I think it’s good. I’d prefer if they use Joba as a long reliever to keep the possibility of inserting him into the rotation later for an injury or something, but I don’t see that happening.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
A day before his 27th birthday, the world champion New York Yankees have released former Crescent City Baptist pitcher Chad Gaudin, according to an AOL Fanhouse tweet by Ed Price.
Gaudin, who turned 27 on Wednesday, joined the Yankees following an August 6th trade with San Diego in 2009. He made 11 appearances for New York, pitching solidly. He posted a 2-0 record with a respectable 3.43 ERA, including six starts during the Yankees stretch run to the world championship.
Happy birthday Chad!
This makes two pitchers dumped for nothing that I’d rather have seen on the team than Chan Ho Park, but whatever.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Looking Ahead to 2010: Brett Gardner
Through the first five positions I’ve reviewed to this point, the Yankees have had an All Star caliber player at every one. With LF up now, the string may be broken.
Right now it looks like left field will be manned with a platoon consisting of TSBG (The Speedy Brett Gardner) and Randy Winn. Offensively, that’s not very confidence-inducing, but that’s not to say that they can’t contribute in ways that can help the team.
Heading into 2009, there was a fair amount of concern about how Gardner would perform. He put up nice OBPs in the minors, but his strikeout rate was pretty high and he showed little power. However, Gardner had a decent season, finishing at .270/.345/.379. For what it’s worth, his average 2009 projection was for a line of .254/.332/.348. Gardner’s line was a bit better than his 65% CAIRO projection. It’s probably worth mentioning that Gardner was hitting .275/.354/.400 as of July 25, when an injury kept him out until September 7. After his return from the DL, he played sporadically and hit .250/.308/.292 over 53 PAs. Did playing sporadically hurt him? It may have, although anything can happen in 53 PAs.
Even if his batting seems subpar, Gardner can provide value in ways besides hitting. Just looking at his stolen bases, his 26 SB and only 5 CS were worth about 4 runs. To put that in context, 4 runs is roughly equivalent to 8 singles. So Gardner’s 2009 offense was worth just as much as that of a hypothetical player who hit .302/.366/.411 but with no SBs.
Gah, this is supposed to be looking ahead not looking back. On to the projections!(Click Comments to read more)