Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

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Rangers @ Yankees, Saturday May 23, 2015 , 1:05 PM
(50 Comments - 5/23/2015 10:44:56 pm)

Rangers (18-23) @ Yankees (22-19) , Friday May 22, 2015 , 7:05 PM
(53 Comments - 5/23/2015 11:07:54 am)

NY Post: Masahiro Tanaka passes first rehab start with flying colors
(18 Comments - 5/22/2015 4:37:19 pm)

The Correction
(48 Comments - 5/22/2015 12:30:19 am) Yankees’ promising start fizzles in loss
(6 Comments - 5/21/2015 9:25:25 am)

Yankees (22-18) @ Nationals (23-17) , Wednesday May 20, 2015 , 7:05 PM
(31 Comments - 5/20/2015 10:23:42 pm)

Washington Post: Zimmerman’s blast lifts Nats over Yankees in 10th
(20 Comments - 5/20/2015 5:26:02 pm)

Yankees (22-17) @ Nationals (22-17) , Tuesday May 19, 2015 , 7:05 PM
(79 Comments - 5/20/2015 7:17:21 am) Whitley elects to have Tommy John surgery
(20 Comments - 5/19/2015 4:32:57 pm) Yanks blanked as Capuano struggles in KC
(34 Comments - 5/18/2015 9:02:40 pm)

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Friday, May 1, 2015

Yankees (13-9) @ Red Sox (12-10) , Friday May 1, 2015 , 7:10 PM

Yankees: CC Sabathia (L) vs. Red Sox: Justin Masterson (R)

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.321/.406/.381)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.311/.400/.410)
3. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.216/.322/.608)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.266/.319/.453)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.162/.216/.265)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.232/.284/.390)
7. Garrett Jones (L) DH: (.185/.214/.296)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.177/.274/.419)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.206/.261/.238)

Red Sox:
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF: (.230/.313/.345)
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B: (.291/.367/.477)
3. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.236/.337/.444)
4. Hanley Ramirez (R) LF: (.293/.341/.659)
5. Mike Napoli (R) 1B: (.162/.269/.250)
6. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B: (.312/.398/.442)
7. Allen Craig (R) RF: (.118/.189/.118)
8. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.274/.338/.356)
9. Ryan Hanigan (R) C: (.216/.349/.294)

Can CC make it 0-5?  Considering how he’s pitched in Boston even when he was good (5.30 career ERA in Fenway) combined with the fact that he’s no longer good, I like his chances.

--Posted at 2:54 pm by SG / 73 Comments | - (0)

Lohud: Injury updates: Andrew Bailey shut down with shoulder strain

Andrew Bailey
After finally pitching in back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday, Bailey was taken off the High-A Tampa roster and reassigned to extended spring training. The move was made because of a shoulder issue, and an MRI revealed a strain. Bailey has been shut down for now, and Cashman said he didn’t have a clear timetable for when Bailey will be back on the mound.

Who saw that coming?

--Posted at 8:26 am by SG / 14 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, April 30, 2015

NYDN: Harper: Yankees’ Didi Gregorius struggles, gets help from Alex Rodriguez

As the education of Didi Gregorius continues, the Yankees called on Alex Rodriguez to work with the young shortstop, which naturally focused more attention on the question of why Gregorius hasn’t lived up to his glowing reputation as a defensive whiz.

Is it merely that Gregorius has been a bit overwhelmed by the adjustment to playing on the big New York stage as a Yankee, replacing a legend in Derek Jeter?

Or is there something more troubling about what at times has looked like a lack of baseball instincts?

I take it Satan was unavailable?

--Posted at 9:43 am by SG / 43 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, April 29, 2015 Yanks fall in 13 innings for first loss to Rays

NEW YORK—James Loney drove home Steven Souza Jr. with the go-ahead run in the top of the 13th inning, lifting the Rays to a 3-2 victory over the Yankees on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium to avert a series sweep.

Loney’s hit was a ground-ball single to right field off left-hander Chasen Shreve, who was the sixth Bombers reliever of the afternoon. Second baseman Stephen Drew chased the ball down but threw home too late to nab Souza Jr., and Tampa Bay held on to defeat the Yankees for the first time in six tries this season.

Chase Headley and Chris Young homered to account for the output against Rays left-hander Drew Smyly, who struck out 10 over six strong innings. Rays hurlers struck out 16 Yankees in all, a season high for both clubs. Brandon Gomes picked up the victory with two innings of scoreless relief and Ernesto Frieri worked the 13th for his second save.

--Posted at 4:54 pm by SG / 12 Comments | - (0)

Rays (11-10) @ Yankees (13-8) , Wednesday April 29, 2015 , 1:05 PM

Rays: Drew Smyly (L) vs. Yankees: Michael Pineda (R)

1. David DeJesus (L) DH: (.302/.375/.419)
2. Steven Souza Jr. (R) RF: (.254/.346/.465)
3. Asdrubal Cabrera (S) SS: (.225/.271/.313)
4. Evan Longoria (R) 3B: (.300/.398/.443)
5. James Loney (L) 1B: (.333/.400/.611)
6. Logan Forsythe (R) 2B: (.277/.373/.462)
7. Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF: (.293/.317/.534)
8. Brandon Guyer (R) LF: (.227/.352/.386)
9. Bobby Wilson (R) C: (.188/.316/.188)

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.308/.400/.372)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.291/.350/.600)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.254/.397/.556)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.232/.341/.652)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.159/.217/.270)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.234/.289/.364)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.313/.400/.500)
8. Gregorio Petit (R) 2B: (.208/.286/.333)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.224/.281/.259)

--Posted at 11:40 am by SG / 71 Comments | - (0)

How have the first three weeks of the baseball season changed team’s final outlooks?

As we began discussing in a thread yesterday, we can’t read too much into how teams have performed to this point when trying to assess how good they actually are.  That doesn’t mean that the games that have been played to this point are not significant, because they are.  Games that are already played are banked, and the results of those games cannot be taken away.  They can also have some impact on a team’s estimated talent level, although the effect on that tends to be way overstated due to the small sample size.

Think of a simple example.  If you had a team that is essentially a .500 team, and they won their first 20 games without changing the fact that they were a .500 team, if they split the remaining 142 games they’d end the year with a record of 91-71.  It’s more likely that this team is an 81 win team that got lucky than an actual 91 win team.  But they did win 91 games.

So anyway, taking my CAIRO preseason projections, adding in the results of the games through last night, and modifying team projections slightly going forward based on YTD performance and any roster changes that were not captured in the preseason projections, here is how team outlooks have changed sorted in descending order by wins.

Team diffW diffDiv diffPS
Royals 6.5 13.5% 19.7%
Astros 6.2 6.1% 9.5%
Mets 5.8 19.0% 20.8%
Yankees 4.5 7.5% 11.8%
Cubs 3.8 3.5% 10.7%
Cardinals 3.3 12.3% 14.0%
Tigers 2.9 9.2% 12.2%
Rockies 2.6 1.1% 2.2%
Diamondbacks 1.9 0.1% 0.2%
Braves 1.6 2.0% 1.9%
Reds 1.2 -1.3% -0.2%
Twins 0.9 -1.1% -1.4%
Dodgers 0.9 11.0% 5.2%
Rays 0.3 -0.3% 0.9%
Padres 0.1 -0.1% 0.2%
Pirates -0.6 -5.3% -0.3%
White Sox -1.0 -5.8% -5.1%
Red Sox -1.0 -2.0% -1.5%
Orioles -1.1 -2.3% -2.0%
Blue Jays -1.2 -3.0% -2.6%
Phillies -1.4 -0.5% -1.6%
Rangers -1.7 -1.1% -3.4%
Marlins -1.7 -1.1% -4.2%
Angels -1.8 0.1% -5.0%
Athletics -2.0 -0.2% -5.3%
Mariners -3.4 -4.9% -10.2%
Giants -4.3 -12.0% -15.1%
Indians -4.7 -15.9% -17.7%
Nationals -5.8 -19.3% -16.6%
Brewers -8.7 -9.3% -17.2%

diffW: Change in final 2015 projected wins from pre-season CAIRO projections.
diffDiv: Change in final 2015 projected division win percentage from pre-season CAIRO projections.
DiffPS: Change in final 2015 projected post-season qualifying percentage from pre-season CAIRO projections (division titles plus either of the two wild cards).

The Mets’ hot start combined with the Nationals’ cold one has probably been the most significant at the top of any specific division.  The Royals have improved their projected win total by more than any other team, but unfortunately for them Detroit has improved as well.  And while I still remain skeptical about how good the Yankees really are, the 4.5 games they’ve picked up in a division that had very little spread heading into the season are pretty important.  The Indians were a pretty trendy dark-horse in the AL Central and have dug themselves a bit of a hole, and the Brewers have really hurt themselves in the early going.

This can and will change quite a bit as the season moves forward, so think of it as more of a fun little checkpoint than anything.

--Posted at 10:34 am by SG / 10 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 McCann drives in three to back Whitley’s solid spot start

NEW YORK—Brian McCann doubled twice and drove in three runs to help the Yankees continue their winning ways, powering a 4-2 victory over the Rays on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

The Bombers’ backstop slugged a run-scoring double as part of a two-run first inning, then connected for a two-run double in the fifth as he continued to pound Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi. The Yankees have won 10 of their last 12 games, and all five meetings with the Rays.

Yankees spot starter Chase Whitley picked up the victory in his first start of the season, holding the Rays to one run and six hits over five innings. Tampa Bay’s Asdrubal Cabrera had a run-scoring double in the third and Logan Forsythe legged out an RBI triple in the sixth facing Chasen Shreve. Yanks righty Chris Martin worked a scoreless ninth for his first career save.

The win was overshadowed by the news that Masahiro Tanaka is heading to the disabled list with wrist tendinitis and a forearm strain.  It’s not good news obviously, although it doesn’t necessarily mean his season is over yet either.

--Posted at 9:37 pm by SG / 33 Comments | - (0)

Rays (11-9) @ Yankees (12-8) , Tuesday April 28, 2015 , 7:05 PM

Rays: Jake Odorizzi (R) vs. Yankees: Chase Whitley (R)

1. David DeJesus (L) LF: (.342/.419/.474)
2. Steven Souza Jr. (R) RF: (.254/.342/.478)
3. Asdrubal Cabrera (S) SS: (.211/.250/.289)
4. Evan Longoria (R) 3B: (.318/.418/.470)
5. James Loney (L) 1B: (.267/.313/.600)
6. Logan Forsythe (R) 2B: (.262/.366/.426)
7. Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF: (.278/.304/.519)
8. Tim Beckham (R) DH: (.289/.353/.556)
9. Rene Rivera (R) C: (.159/.197/.238)

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.284/.384/.351)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.316/.409/.421)
3. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.227/.333/.652)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.250/.299/.417)
5. CarLOL Beltran (S) RF: (.167/.227/.283)
6. Garrett Jones (L) DH: (.217/.250/.348)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.233/.291/.370)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.193/.284/.456)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.218/.279/.255)

--Posted at 3:11 pm by SG / 79 Comments | - (0) McCann’s blast sparks Yankees past Rays

NEW YORK—The Yankees (12-8) took sole possession of first place in the American League East on Monday night with a 4-1 win over the Rays (11-9) at Yankee Stadium. It snapped Tampa Bay’s five-game winning streak and pushed the Yankees’ record to 4-0 against the Rays this season.

Brian McCann’s solo home run off Brandon Gomes in the sixth snapped a 1-1 tie. Carlos Beltran followed with a double to center and scored one out later when Stephen Drew doubled to right off Everett Teaford.
The Yankees scored first when Gomes took over for Nathan Karns in the fifth with two outs and the bases loaded. Brett Gardner walked to drive home the run. The Rays answered in the top of the sixth when David DeJesus scored on a fielder’s choice to tie the game at 1.

I’m still not buying this as more than an aberration.

--Posted at 7:41 am by SG / 47 Comments | - (0)

Monday, April 27, 2015

Rays (11-8) @ Yankees (11-8) , Monday April 27, 2015 , 7:05 PM

Rays: Nathan Karns (R) vs. Yankees: Adam Warren (R)

1. David DeJesus (L) DH: (.353/.436/.500)
2. Steven Souza Jr. (R) RF: (.254/.347/.492)
3. Asdrubal Cabrera (S) SS: (.208/.250/.278)
4. Evan Longoria (R) 3B: (.306/.413/.468)
5. James Loney (L) 1B: (.333/.385/.750)
6. Brandon Guyer (R) LF: (.250/.380/.425)
7. Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF: (.294/.321/.549)
8. Tim Beckham (R) 2B: (.302/.354/.581)
9. Rene Rivera (R) C: (.150/.190/.233)

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.282/.370/.352)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.302/.393/.396)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B: (.267/.405/.583)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.242/.351/.694)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.232/.286/.357)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) DH: (.161/.226/.268)
7. Chris Young (R) RF: (.320/.382/.660)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.167/.254/.426)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.212/.263/.250)

A scintillating battle for first place in the AL East!

--Posted at 3:10 pm by SG / 58 Comments | - (0) A-Rod paces offense as Yanks take series from Mets

NEW YORK—Alex Rodriguez homered and drove in a pair of runs to pace the Yankees’ attack against Jon Niese, helping to secure the first leg of the Subway Series with a 6-4 victory over the Mets on Sunday night at Yankee Stadium.

The Bombers took two of three games in the weekend set as Niese was thumped for six runs (four earned) and eight hits over five innings, including a four-run second inning in which the Yankees stroked four doubles. The Mets didn’t help their cause defensively, committing four errors in the field.

“Our goal is to win series, and we’ve done that in the last three,” Rodriguez said. “It’s especially sweet in the Subway Series, to win the series, and especially against a team that’s playing so well.”


--Posted at 8:18 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Mets (14-4) @ Yankees (10-8) , Sunday April 26, 2015 , 8:05 PM

Mets: Jon Niese (L) vs. Yankees: Nathan Eovaldi (R)

1. Curtis Granderson (L) RF: (.220/.370/.254)
2. Juan Lagares (R) CF: (.296/.311/.338)
3. Lucas Duda (L) 1B: (.323/.400/.523)
4. Michael Cuddyer (R) LF: (.250/.324/.375)
5. Daniel Murphy (L) 2B: (.145/.217/.242)
6. Eric Campbell (R) 3B: (.267/.400/.433)
7. Wilmer Flores (R) SS: (.291/.328/.473)
8. Danny Muno (S) DH: (.333/.333/.333)
9. Kevin Plawecki (R) C: (.286/.333/.500)

1. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.286/.386/.367)
2. Chris Young (R) CF: (.326/.392/.696)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.250/.400/.518)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.254/.356/.729)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.173/.241/.288)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.232/.293/.362)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.231/.353/.385)
8. Stephen Drew (L) SS: (.176/.267/.451)
9. Gregorio Petit (R) 2B: (.190/.280/.286)

--Posted at 5:27 pm by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, April 25, 2015 CC chased as Yanks can’t keep up in Subway Series

NEW YORK—Matt Harvey finished one out shy of a complete game and the Mets swatted three homers off CC Sabathia, evening the Subway Series with an 8-2 victory over the Yankees on Saturday at Yankee Stadium.

Lucas Duda hit a first-inning solo shot, Kevin Plawecki notched his first Major League homer with a two-run blast in the fourth and Eric Campbell cleared the right-field wall in the sixth off Sabathia, who was battered for seven runs and nine hits in five-plus innings. Juan Lagares had four hits, tying a career high.

--Posted at 7:02 pm by SG / 18 Comments | - (0)

Mets (13-4) @ Yankees (10-7) , Saturday April 25, 2015 , 4:05 PM

Mets: Matt Harvey (R) vs. Yankees: CC Sabathia (L)



--Posted at 9:45 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (0)

Friday, April 24, 2015 Tex swats pair to back Pineda’s gem in win over Mets

NEW YORK—Mark Teixeira homered twice off Jacob deGrom and Jacoby Ellsbury also cleared the fence in Friday night’s Subway Series opener, helping the Yankees snap the Mets’ 11-game winning streak with a 6-1 victory at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees won for the seventh time in eight games behind a strong performance from Michael Pineda, who limited the Mets to Lucas Duda’s sixth-inning sacrifice fly to notch his third consecutive victory. Pineda scattered five hits over 7 2/3 innings, striking out seven.
deGrom was charged with six runs on eight hits over five innings. Teixeira’s first-inning homer snapped his 18 1/3 innings scoreless streak.

--Posted at 10:37 pm by SG / 7 Comments | - (0)

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