Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Astros (8-19) @ Yankees (16-10), Wednesday, May 1, 2013, 7:05pm
HOU:Erik Bedard (34, LHP, 0-2, 7.98) vs. NYY:David Phelps (26, RHP, 1-1, 5.29)
Lineups
Astros
Robbie Grossman*, CF: .138/.242/.207
Jose Altuve, 2B: .330/.374/.438
Jason Castro*, C: .274/.315/.405
Carlos Pena*, 1B: .220/.330/.363
Chris Carter, DH: .227/.303/.454
J.D. Martinez, RF: .244/.271/.444
Brandon Barnes, LF: .375/.468/.525
Matt Dominguez, 3B: .250/.303/.315
Marwin Gonzalez#, SS: .297/.338/.516
Yankees
Ichiro Suzuki*, CF: .268/.315/.329
Jayson Nix, 3B: .219/.261/.266
Robinson Cano*, 2B: .327/.379/.598
Vernon Wells, LF: .300/.366/.544
Travis Hafner*, DH: .318/.438/.667
Ben Francisco, RF: .103/.212/.103
Eduardo Nunez, SS: .203/.296/.246
Lyle Overbay*, 1B: .241/.267/.446
Chris Stewart, C: .294/.333/.382
Erik Bedard throws with his left arm. The Yankees have hit .216/.290/.338 against pitchers who do that. David Phelps throws with his right arm. The Astros have hit .246/.298/.408 vs. pitchers who do that.
Would you take a line of .216/.290/.338 over a line of .246/.298/.408? No, you would not.
Advantage Astros.
April 2013 Log 5 Expectations vs. Actual Performance for the Yankees
Back on April 4, I ran through the Yankees’ Log 5 expectations for the month of April. In a nutshell, this is a crude way to estimate how many wins/losses a team should have given their schedule. It adjusts for home field advantage and strength of opposition, but its crude in that it relies on estimations of how good the opponents (and the Yankees are) and ignores pitching matchups. At the time I was using the average win projections from the pre-season projection blowout for the Yankees and their opponents but as the season moves forward we can incorporate 2013 results (properly weighed) as well.
Anyhow, the Yankees should have gone something like 14.3 - 13.7, aka roughly .500. Since two games were rained out make that 13.3-12.7 instead. Here’s how they actually ended up doing.
| Date | Road Team | Home Team | rW% | hW% | xW | xL | aW | cxW | cxL | caW | diff | |
| 4/1/2013 | TBD | Red Sox | Yankees | .488 | .542 | .55 | .45 | 0 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 | -0.6 |
| 4/3/2013 | TBD | Red Sox | Yankees | .488 | .542 | .55 | .45 | 0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0 | -1.1 |
| 4/4/2013 | TBD | Red Sox | Yankees | .488 | .542 | .55 | .45 | 1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1 | -0.7 |
| 4/5/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Tigers | .507 | .559 | .45 | .55 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1 | -1.1 |
| 4/6/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Tigers | .507 | .559 | .45 | .55 | 0 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.6 |
| 4/7/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Tigers | .507 | .559 | .45 | .55 | 1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2 | -1.0 |
| 4/8/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Indians | .507 | .516 | .49 | .51 | 1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | -0.5 |
| 4/9/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Indians | .507 | .516 | .49 | .51 | 1 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4 | 0.0 |
| 4/12/2013 | TBD | Orioles | Yankees | .472 | .542 | .57 | .43 | 1 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 5 | 0.4 |
| 4/13/2013 | TBD | Orioles | Yankees | .472 | .542 | .57 | .43 | 0 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5 | -0.1 |
| 4/14/2013 | TBD | Orioles | Yankees | .472 | .542 | .57 | .43 | 1 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 6 | 0.3 |
| 4/16/2013 | TBD | Diamondbacks | Yankees | .509 | .542 | .53 | .47 | 1 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 7 | 0.8 |
| 4/17/2013 | TBD | Diamondbacks | Yankees | .509 | .542 | .53 | .47 | 1 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 8 | 1.2 |
| 4/18/2013 | TBD | Diamondbacks | Yankees | .509 | .542 | .53 | .47 | 0 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 8 | 0.7 |
| 4/19/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Blue Jays | .507 | .578 | .43 | .57 | 1 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 9 | 1.3 |
| 4/20/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Blue Jays | .507 | .578 | .43 | .57 | 1 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 10 | 1.9 |
| 4/21/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Blue Jays | .507 | .578 | .43 | .57 | 0 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 10 | 1.4 |
| 4/22/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Rays | .507 | .562 | .45 | .55 | 0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 10 | 1.0 |
| 4/23/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Rays | .507 | .562 | .45 | .55 | 1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 11 | 1.5 |
| 4/24/2013 | TBD | Yankees | Rays | .507 | .562 | .45 | .55 | 0 | 9.9 | 10.1 | 11 | 1.1 |
| 4/25/2013 | TBD | Blue Jays | Yankees | .543 | .542 | .50 | .50 | 1 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 12 | 1.6 |
| 4/26/2013 | TBD | Blue Jays | Yankees | .543 | .542 | .50 | .50 | 1 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 13 | 2.1 |
| 4/27/2013 | TBD | Blue Jays | Yankees | .543 | .542 | .50 | .50 | 1 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 14 | 2.6 |
| 4/28/2013 | TBD | Blue Jays | Yankees | .543 | .542 | .50 | .50 | 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 15 | 3.1 |
| 4/29/2013 | TBD | Astros | Yankees | .349 | .542 | .69 | .31 | 0 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 15 | 2.4 |
| 4/30/2013 | TBD | Astros | Yankees | .349 | .542 | .69 | .31 | 1 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 16 | 2.7 |
rW%: Road team projected winning percentage* adjusted for home field advantage
hW%: Home team projected winning percentage adjusted for home field advantage
xW/L: Expected wins/losses using log 5
aW: Actual wins
cxW/L: Cumulative expected wins/losses
caW: Cumulative actual wins
diff: Difference between caW and cxW. Positive means team is ahead of their projected pace
When the Yankees lost to the Tigers on April 6 to fall to 1-4 they were 1.6 games behind an 85 win pace and with Justin Verlander looming the next day it looked like they were headed for disaster. But they beat Verlander the next day and have won 15 of 21 games since that 1-4 start to push themselves up to 2.7 games ahead of an 85 win pace. If their pre-season projections were accurate then they are now closer to an 88 win team.
I don’t know how sustainable their recent play is. You look at the lineups they are running out there most nights and they don’t look like the lineups of a team that can win 71.4% of its games. But they are putting real wins up now while they are hopefully moving towards a time when they will be a better team that can sustain a good enough winning percentage to contend for a spot in the postseason.
The things I’ve most enjoyed so far are the performances of Hiroki Kuroda, Travis Hafner and Mariano Rivera.
I expected Kuroda to be solid, but figured he’d drop back from his very good 2012. Instead he’s been even better although some of his peripherals indicate that he’s likely to drop off a bit going forward.
I thought Hafner would be reasonably good as long as he could stay healthy. I figured he’d mostly walk, homer and strike out but he’s been a much better overall hitter than I expected, beating the shift numerous times and hitting against lefties and righties. I do think he still needs to be used judiciously even if it means running a weaker lineup out there periodically, but he’s been a boon to a lineup that needed it badly.
And really, I don’t know what I can say about Mo. I have to admit I was worried that he wouldn’t be the same after his knee injury and he didn’t look quite as dominant early on. Over his last eight games he’s faced 27 batters and has struck out nine of them without walking any and has really looked as good as he ever has.
Overall, this team has really surprised me so far. They’re two games ahead of their Pythagenpat winning percentage so they’ve probably been a bit lucky to this point, but those wins do actually count in the real standings.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Yankees.com: Wobbly early, Kuroda settles to stymie Astros
NEW YORK—The box score doesn’t tell the whole story for Hiroki Kuroda, who seemed to be in danger in each of the first three innings, then figured out a way to cruise for the rest of his night.
The veteran right-hander may have flailed early as he searched for the command of his stuff, but he finished with seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball to help the Yankees defeat the Astros, 7-4, on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
The Astros had their chances early but stranded seven men against Kuroda through the first three innings, which required 67 pitches. Kuroda righted himself with a six-pitch fourth inning and finished with a season-high eight strikeouts in a 108-pitch effort, walking four.
Travis Hafner drove in two of the Yankees’ four runs against Astros starter Phil Humber, who permitted nine hits in a 94-pitch outing that featured four wild pitches as well as two walks and two strikeouts.
Hafner drove home Brett Gardner with a first-inning RBI single, a sinking liner to left field that Brandon Barnes trapped on a dive, then knocked in Ichiro Suzuki with a run-scoring hit up the middle in the third inning. Hafner’s third and final RBI single came in the bottom of the eighth.
Kuroda looked awful over the first three innings but settled down nicely and it was nice to see Ichiro and Nun-E showing some signs of life. With Curtis Granderson working his way back, Ichiro may be playing for his job.
Astros (8-18) @ Yankees (15-10), Tuesday, April 30, 2013, 7:05pm
HOU:Philip Humber (30, RHP, 0-5, 7.99) vs. NYY:Hiroki Kuroda (38, RHP, 3-1, 2.79)
Lineups
Astros
Robbie Grossman*, CF: .115/.179/.192
Jose Altuve, 2B: .327/.373/.430
Jason Castro*, C: .266/.310/.392
Carlos Pena*, 1B: .216/.324/.364
Chris Carter, DH: .226/.305/.430
Rick Ankiel*, RF: .204/.220/.571
Matt Dominguez, 3B: .250/.305/.318
Brandon Barnes, LF: .405/.488/.568
Marwin Gonzalez#, SS: .300/.344/.517
Yankees
Brett Gardner*, CF: .263/.333/.414
Ichiro Suzuki*, LF: .247/.298/.312
Robinson Cano*, 2B: .324/.378/.608
Travis Hafner*, DH: .290/.413/.661
Brennan Boesch*, RF: .219/.265/.500
Jayson Nix, 3B: .217/.262/.267
Lyle Overbay*, 1B: .241/.268/.418
Eduardo Nunez, SS: .169/.273/.185
Chris Stewart, C: .267/.313/.367
Philip Humber has pitched a perfect game. Hiroki Kuroda has never even pitched a no-hitter. You can’t win if you don’t get a single runner on base. Advantage Astros.
The Astros have two players who’ve hit exactly five home runs. Aside from the three Yankees who have hit at least six, no one on the team has hit more than three. Advantage Astros.
The Astros’ worst position player by OPS+ so far has an OPS+ of 3. The Yankees’ worst position player by OPS+ so far has an OPS+ of -23. Advantage Astros.
The Astros’ closer is Verasing Jose Veras. The Yankees’ closer is not. Advantage Yankees.
3 advantages > 1 advantage. Advantage Astros.
I guess that makes it four advantages, but you get the point.
I don’t know if I’d take the Yankees’ lineup over Houston’s. I guess I would simply because Cano is so much better than anyone else, but it’s close…
KansasCity.com: Yankees pitcher Vidal Nuno went from Baker U. to the bigs
From Baker University to Yankees pinstripes, Vidal Nuno’s rise through baseball has been rapid and improbable.
Nuno, a left-hander assigned to the bullpen, has yet to take the mound in the majors after being called up from Class AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Saturday. But he told his college coach, Phil Hannon, in a telephone call Sunday evening that he’s ready to go.
“They’ve given him a couple of days to get acclimated,” Hannon said. “He’s ready to take the ball any time.”
This article was written before Nuno made his MLB debut last night. He’s a pretty cool story, as he’s worked his way to the majors from the NAIA college ranks where he got drafted by Cleveland in the 48th round before getting released then went to the independent Frontier League before the Yankees picked him up. He doesn’t throw hard, which limits his ceiling, but his minor league numbers last year and so far this year were really good and he may be able to be a useful part of a big league roster if his command is as good as it appears to be.
Monday, April 29, 2013
Yankees.com: Pettitte’s off night sets Yanks on wrong path
NEW YORK—Andy Pettitte was roughed up for seven runs and knocked out in the fifth inning as the Astros snapped the Yankees’ four-game winning streak, posting a 9-1 victory on Monday at Yankee Stadium.
Houston’s first game facing the Yankees as an American League opponent went into the books, as Pettitte allowed seven or more runs in a start for the first time since 2008, finding few answers as he surrendered 10 hits to his former club.
The Astros’ attack was paced by catcher Carlos Corporan’s career-high four hits. Brandon Barnes also drove in three runs, and Houston batted around in a four-run fifth inning, sending Pettitte to the showers.
It was clear that Pettitte didn’t have his good stuff from the beginning. The veteran lefty allowed three runs in the first, with Carlos Pena and Corporan collecting RBIs, and Barnes added a two-run double in the fourth inning.
After Ronny Cedeno roped Pettitte’s 91st and final pitch off the third-base bag for a fluke double, Corporan greeted reliever Adam Warren with a two-run homer into the right-field seats. Warren allowed two runs and three hits in 1 2/3 innings of relief.
When you lose 9-1 to the worst team in your league, perhaps they aren’t the worst team in your league after all. Perhaps you are.
I guess it’s good that Pettitte picked a night when his team would only score one run to give up eleventy billion runs at least.
Astros (7-18) @ Yankees (15-9), Monday, April 29, 2013, 7:05pm
HOU:Lucas Harrell (28, RHP, 2-2, 4.08) vs. NYY:Andy Pettitte (41, LHP, 3-1, 2.22)
Lineups
Houston
Jose Altuve, 2B: .327/.375/.426
Brandon Barnes, RF: .375/.474/.500
Brandon Laird, 1B: .217/.280/.565
Chris Carter, LF: .216/.300/.432
Carlos Pena*, DH: .205/.320/.337
Ronny Cedeno, SS: .333/.324/.472
Carlos Corporan*, C: .250/.375/.250
Matt Dominguez, 3B: .262/.311/.333
Robbie Grossman*, CF: .091/.130/.182
Yankees
Brett Gardner*, CF: .253/.327/.411
Robinson Cano*, 2B: .316/.374/.612
Vernon Wells, LF: .294/.358/.553
Travis Hafner*, DH: .305/.423/.695
Brennan Boesch*, RF: .233/.233/.533
Jayson Nix, 3B: .232/.279/.286
Lyle Overbay*, 1B: .240/.269/.427
Eduardo Nunez, SS: .164/.274/.180
Austin Romine, C: -/-/-
Interleague play again? Seriously? Oh, wait.
Houston comes to town after dropping four straight to Boston. The Astros don’t have a whole lot of good players, but Lucas Harrell has been a reasonably good pitcher so far in his MLB career.
Houston’s 7-18 record is a bit misleading as they should be 8-17 according to Pythagorean expectations. So they’re more likely to end the year 51-111 than they are to end the year 45-117.
As bad as Houston is, they are still going to win at least 25% of their games and logic says the Yankees probably won’t sweep this series. But seriously, anything less than a sweep will feel like a disappointment.
You Know Suzyn
Josh Norris @jnorris427
It’s almost a month into the season, and Brett Gardner has as many home runs as Josh Hamilton and Matt Kemp combined.
TPBG?
Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B
| Pitcher | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | BF | RA | ERA |
| A | 7.0 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 11.57 | 10.29 |
| B | 20.0 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 79 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Pitcher | BB/BF | K/BF | K/BB | GB% | FB% | LD% | IFFB | BABIP | FBv | xFIP | FIP |
| A | 5.0% | 10.0% | 2.00 | 33.3% | 39.4% | 27.3% | 0.0% | .467 | 91.2 | 5.57 | 8.49 |
| B | 3.8% | 26.6% | 7.00 | 30.9% | 49.1% | 20.0% | 0.0% | .321 | 92.3 | 3.48 | 2.85 |
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
xFIP: Expected FIP
BB/BF: Walks and hit batters per batters faced
K/BF: Strikeouts per batters faced
K/BB: Strikeout to walk ratio
GB%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
FB%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
LD%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
IFFB: Percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
BABIP: Batting average on balls in play
FBv: Average fastball velocity
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Yankees.com: Overbay’s homer helps Yanks sweep Jays
Stifled nearly all afternoon by R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball on Sunday, the Yankees once again did what they’ve done for the past four games—find a way to win.
With their fourth come-from-behind victory in as many days, the Yankees completed a four-game sweep of the Blue Jays with a 3-2 victory at Yankee Stadium. The four-game winning streak matches the Yankees’ season high and marks their first four-game sweep of the rival Jays since Sept. 18-21, 1995.
Locked in a pitchers’ duel with Yankees starter Phil Hughes for much of the day, Dickey and the Jays entered the bottom of the seventh inning clinging to a 2-1 lead. Though it was only a one-run deficit, the Yankees had hardly threatened the knuckleballer all afternoon. New York, in fact, never had a baserunner on second or third base in seven innings against Dickey.
It turns out they didn’t need to, however, as the Yankees instead relied entirely on a pair of home runs against Dickey. The first, off the bat of Brennan Boesch, staked the Yanks to an early 1-0 lead in the second inning and the second, a two-run shot by Lyle Overbay in the seventh, proved to be the difference.
This is getting nuts! A four-game sweep where they trailed in every single game? That’s just remarkable.
Phil Hughes continued his string of pretty good starts, although he has yet to get a win, oddly enough.
It is hard not to be pumped about how well the Yankees are playing right now, even on a day where Kevin Youkilis had to sit again due to his back.
Let’s hope that they don’t let up when the Houston Astrs (they have no O) come to the Stadium for a three-game set tomorrow.
Blue Jays (9-16) @ Yankees (14-9), Sunday, April 28, 2013, 1:05pm
TOR:R.A. Dickey (38, RHP, 2-3, 4.66) vs. NYY:Phil Hughes (27, RHP, 0-2, 5.14)
Lineups
Toronto
Brett Lawrie 3B
Colby Rasmus CF
Jose Bautista RF
Edwin Encarnacion DH
Melky Cabrera LF
Adam Lind 1B
Maicer Izturis 2B
Henry Blanco C
Munenori Kawasaki SS
Yankees
Ichiro Suzuki CF
Robinson Cano 2B
Vernon Wells LF
Travis Hafner DH
Brennan Boesch RF
Jayson Nix 3B
Lyle Overbay 1B
Eduardo Nunez SS
Chris Stewart C
It really feels like every day is Hughesday, doesn’t it? And it’s House Money day too! Gardner gets the day off for rest, and Youkilis gets the day off for continuing back stiffness. Maybe playing him yesterday wasn’t all that smart.
Saturday, April 27, 2013
Yankees.com: Early and late, Hafner’s power saves Yanks
In what has seemingly become a daily theme in 2013, the Yankees’ resilience was on full display yet again on Saturday en route to their third straight victory.
On a day when New York placed two more regulars on its ever-growing disabled list and ace CC Sabathia struggled at times, the Yankees rallied twice to defeat the Blue Jays, 5-4, at Yankee Stadium.
After erasing an early three-run deficit with a three-run homer, designated hitter Travis Hafner broke a 4-4 tie in the seventh inning with what turned out to be a decisive RBI triple. With two outs and a runner on third base, Hafner sent a towering fly ball to center field that deflected off Rajai Davis’ glove, allowing Vernon Wells to score the go-ahead run.
What a win!
CC Sabathia struggled but he truly battled his way through eight innings and really pitched well in the eighth. Jayson Nix saved the win with a great diving play in the ninth inning as Joba Chamberlain came in to get the save (Mo and Robertson were both unavailable, Mo because he can’t pitch three games in a row and Robertson because he has pitched in three of the last four games). Travis Hafner got his first start of the season against a left-handed pitcher and came through with a three-run home run and then a game-winning triple in the seventh inning off a left-handed reliever. Hopefully this positive reinforcement gets Girardi to change his approach with Hafner never starting against lefties.
Blue Jays (9-15) @ Yankees (13-9), Saturday, April 27, 2013, 4:05pm
TOR:J.A. Happ (30, LHP, 2-1, 3.68) vs. NYY:CC Sabathia (32, LHP, 3-2, 3.34)
Lineups
Toronto
Rajai Davis, CF: .273/.286/.418
Melky Cabrera#, LF: .253/.308/.305
Jose Bautista, RF: .185/.284/.492
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: .225/.317/.483
J.P. Arencibia, C: .256/.272/.589
Brett Lawrie, 3B: .205/.273/.308
Mark DeRosa, DH: .143/.257/.321
Maicer Izturis#, SS: .167/.200/.264
Emilio Bonifacio#, 2B: .169/.219/.305
Yankees
Brett Gardner*, CF: .256/.333/.422
Jayson Nix, 3B: .245/.296/.306
Robinson Cano*, 2B: .319/.374/.626
Vernon Wells, LF: .308/.368/.590
Kevin Youkilis, 1B: .279/.353/.443
Travis Hafner*, DH: .294/.429/.647
Ichiro Suzuki*, RF: .243/.289/.314
Eduardo Nunez, SS: .164/.273/.182
Chris Stewart, C: .304/.360/.435
It’d be pretty cool if CC wouldn’t put the team in a 4-0 hole before the bottom of the first. It’d also be cool if his improved velocity in his last start shows up again.
The Yankees owe Happ a beating for injuring Granderson. Since he’s left-handed they probably won’t give him one, but they owe him one regardless.
Friday, April 26, 2013
Yankees.com: Yanks’ win over Jays comes with a price
The Yankees were dealt two serious early blows to their starting battery but hung around to pick up the win, taking advantage of 10 walks to weather three Toronto homers and post a 6-4 victory over the Blue Jays on Friday at Yankee Stadium.
The contest came at a high price, as catcher Francisco Cervelli fractured his right hand in the first inning and will miss a minimum of six weeks following surgery, and starter Ivan Nova left with pain in his right elbow and is scheduled to have an MRI on Friday.
Seriously?
Seriously?
SERIOUSLY?
It’s been said before, but if Yankees didn’t have bad luck with injuries, they’d have no luck at all. Kevin Youkilis looking the best he has in years? To the disabled list with you! Cervello having his best start ever? Out for almost two months! Nova’s hurt, too, but that’s the least of the Yankees’ problems. Unless, of course, it is Tommy John Surgery.
Obviously, Austin Romine will be thrown into the deep end, whether he can swim yet or not. I have no idea who will be called up for Nova (if he even goes to the DL at all). Montgomery makes a lot of sense, but so does Nuno. Luckily, Phelps was very good in relief, so he’ll obviously slot into Nova’s rotation slot without much of a drop off. If Youk does go to the DL, then adding David Adams to the 40-man makes sense (I guess using Jeter’s 60-Day DL spot).
The win, while bittersweet, was still a win. And against a left-handed pitcher, nevertheless! So, not a total disaster tonight, but boy, talk about the walking wounded.
Blue Jays (9-14) @ Yankees (12-9), Friday, April 26, 2013, 7:05pm
TOR:Aaron Laffey (28, LHP, 0-0, 7.20) vs. NYY:Ivan Nova (26, RHP, 1-1, 6.14)
Lineups
Toronto
Rajai Davis, DH: .260/.275/.420
Colby Rasmus*, CF: .225/.286/.465
Jose Bautista, RF: .180/.286/.459
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: .212/.309/.412
Melky Cabrera#, LF: .253/.310/.308
J.P. Arencibia, C: .267/.284/.616
Brett Lawrie, 3B: .167/.225/.278
Maicer Izturis#, 2B: .162/.197/.265
Munenori Kawasaki*, SS: .235/.317/.324
Yankees
Brett Gardner*, CF: .253/.327/.391
Jayson Nix, 3B: .261/.286/.326
Robinson Cano*, 2B: .322/.372/.632
Vernon Wells, LF: .293/.361/.587
Francisco Cervelli, C: .269/.377/.500
Ichiro Suzuki*, RF: .239/.278/.313
Eduardo Nunez, SS: .173/.274/.192
Lyle Overbay*, 1B: .221/.254/.353
Ben Francisco, DH: .103/.188/.103
Kevin Youkilis should be good to go tomorrow. If not, definitely by Sunday. Unless he needs an extra day. Then maybe Monday…
Dear Yankees, 1B and DH are the two spots where you should be getting the most offense. If you are batting your 1B and DH 8th and 9th then perhaps you should consider improving there.
Remember what I said about the Yankees not facing a lefty until Saturday? Well, Josh Johnson has been scratched with a strained tricep which means former Yankee Aaron Laffey will get the start after being claimed off waivers from the Mets two days ago.
You have to figure Laffey’s 7.20 ERA and 2.10 WHIP will get healthy against the Yankees’ abysmal lineup vs. LHP. Ben Francisco’s reward for getting his third hit as a Yankee was a demotion to the ninth spot in the batting order. Of course I’m not sure demoting Francisco to get Jayson Nix more PA is really all that optimal.
We know about the Yankees and left-handed pitching but all Laffey really has to do is outpitch Ivan Nova, which is something pretty much everyone in MLB has done so far this year.
Yahoo!: Yankees appear to be scrapping plan of staying below $189M payroll
All along, the New York Yankees have stated the effort to cut their 2014 payroll to $189 million is merely a goal. More and more, it’s one major league sources don’t believe they’ll reach.
In recent months, the Yankees have become far less bullish on their publicly stated austerity plan, admitting to other executives and agents that staying beneath the $189 million threshold is unlikely and impractical.
“They’re going to be over 189,” one source familiar with the Yankees’ plans said. “They know it. Everyone knows it. You can’t run a $3 billion team with the intentions of saving a few million dollars.”
The logic holds up well: The Yankees are arguably the greatest brand in American sports, and already with an injury-depleted roster this season, they could suffer a down year. To dilute the Yankee name for multiple years would necessitate a humongous monetary benefit – one sources say the Yankees no longer believe is coming to them, even if they were to dip beneath $189 million.
While the stash of money New York expected to reap was in the tens of millions, it’s not nearly as large as the Yankees had hoped, a prognosis that is pushing the team to recalibrate its plans, sources said. The Yankees expected to receive money not just from a decreased luxury tax rate but a complicated clause in the collective-bargaining agreement called the market-disqualification rebate.
It was painfully obvious that the Yankees goal of lowering their payroll without the MLB-ready prospects to do so was penny-wise and pound-foolish. So it makes sense that they may scrap the plan for now.
First order of business is probably to lock up Ben Francisco for five years. They should also probably tack on a few years onto Alex Rodriguez’s contact while they’re at it so they can ensure he breaks Barry Bonds’s home run record in pinstripes sometime around the year 2050.
Seriously though, you wonder exactly what they’ll spend the money on.
How Sustainable is Vernon Wells’s current performance?
As Vernon Wells continues to defy reasonable expectations, I continue to wait for him to revert back to being Vernon Wells. The thing is, as I started poking around inside his numbers for the last few years I found some things that could lead us to believe he may actually not revert back to the 2011-2012 version of Vernon Wells.
| Dates | pa | ab | h | 2b | 3b | hr | bb | hbp | k | avg | obp | slg | xavg | xobp | xslg |
| 4/1/2013-4/25/2013 | 83 | 75 | 22 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 13 | .293 | .361 | .587 | .319 | .385 | .613 |
| 3/31/2011-9/30/2012 | 791 | 748 | 166 | 24 | 4 | 36 | 36 | 2 | 121 | .222 | .258 | .409 | .282 | .315 | .443 |
| Dates | GB% | FB% | LD% | IFFB% | BABIP | xBABIP | BB/PA | K/PA | br | xbr | br/650 | xbr/650 |
| 4/1/2013-4/25/2013 | 35.5% | 46.8% | 17.7% | 8.1% | .286 | .289 | 9.6% | 15.7% | 15 | 16 | 117 | 124 |
| 3/31/2011-9/30/2012 | 37.5% | 42.7% | 12.5% | 7.3% | .201 | .277 | 4.6% | 15.3% | 77 | 89 | 63 | 73 |
xavg: batting average if player hit for xBABIP
xobp: on-base percentage if player hit for xBABIP
xslg: slugging percentage if player hit for xBABIP
GB%: percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
FB%: percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
LD%: percentage of batted balls that were line drives
IFFB%: percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
BABIP: batting average on balls in play
xBABIP: expected BABIP (using batted ball distribution)
br: Linear weights batting runs
xbr: Expected br if player hit for xBABIP
br/650: br pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
xbr/650: xbr pro-rated to 650 plate appearances
re24: run expectancy based on the 24 base out states of the player’s plate appearances
Wells hasn’t benefited from a flukishly high batting average on balls in play thus far this season, which is often the quickest way to try and figure out if a player’s playing significantly over his head. But that’s not really the best way to try and analyze what’s happening so let’s delve a bit deeper into his numbers.
I’m figuring out an expected batting average on balls in play for Wells using the league average rates for the percentage of times that batted balls of each type are hits. That’s 23.5% for ground balls, 21.1% for non-HR fly balls and 71.8% for line drives. The difference between his actual BABIP and xBABIP then gets converted to a hit value that’s 2/3 singles and 1/3 doubles.
Batted ball data is limited, so any analysis based on using it needs to be viewed with that understanding. But I find it encouraging and interesting that Wells may actually have underperformed his underlying periphals this year and that he appears to have done so by a very significant amount in 2011-2012. His 2011-12 performance would still have been substandard if he hit closer to his xBABIP but not nearly as bad as his actual performance was.
So maybe he was a reasonably good bounce-back candidate if you looked beyond his raw numbers.
I don’t see Wells hitting .319/.385/.613 for the rest of the year, obviously. But can he hit .270/.330/.450? That’s not far off his expected line for 2011-2012 if he can maintain his improved walk rate. Add that to what he’s done this year and he’d end the year in the .275/.340/.490 range. That’d be pretty good.
Wells doesn’t have to keep hitting as well as he has so far to be an asset going forward, particularly if he becomes more of a complementary piece as the Yankees get healthier. But this team has desperately needed the performance they’ve gotten out of him so far given the number of unproductive players they’ve been running out there.
However his season finishes, April’s been a lot of fun.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
Yankees.com: Yanks knock three homers to make winner of Kuroda
NEW YORK—Robinson Cano belted a three-run homer, Vernon Wells and Francisco Cervelli also cleared the fences, and the Yankees outslugged the Blue Jays, 5-3, on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.
The trio of blasts came off Toronto starter Mark Buehrle in support of right-hander Hiroki Kuroda, who settled in after a shaky beginning to complete six innings and log his third victory of the season.
Edwin Encarnacion opened the scoring with a two-run homer off Kuroda in the first inning, and Brett Lawrie slugged a solo shot in the second to put the Jays up by three runs. Kuroda adjusted and held the Blue Jays to a total of six hits, walking one and striking out three.
Wells hit the first homer off Buehrle, going deep to center field in the second inning, and Cano gave New York the lead when he homered to right field with Jayson Nix and Brett Gardner onboard in the third.
Cervelli completed the power display by homering to left field in the fourth off Buehrle, who permitted seven hits in 5 1/3 innings. The lefty walked none and struck out three, taking his first loss in a Toronto uniform.
Kuroda was due for a clunker but he recovered nicely from the first two innings to keep the game close enough for Cano to do his thing and the bullpen was stellar to get through the last three. I thought Mo looked the best he’s looked so far this year. His command was great and his velocity seems to be improving.
Wells continues to defy expectations, and while I thought Francisco Cervelli had a chance to hit well enough for a catcher, he’s been much better than that. We shouldn’t expect either to last, but that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy it while it’s happening.
I know this team still stinks, but they’re kind of fun to watch.
Blue Jays (9-13) @ Yankees (11-9), Thursday, April 25, 2013, 7:05pm
TOR:Mark Buehrle (34, LHP, 1-0, 5.87) vs. NYY:Hiroki Kuroda (38, RHP, 2-1, 2.35)
Lineups
Toronto
Rajai Davis, DH: .261/.277/.435
Munenori Kawasaki*, SS: .233/.324/.300
Jose Bautista, RF: .190/.288/.483
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: .210/.312/.383
Melky Cabrera#, LF: .253/.313/.310
J.P. Arencibia, C: .268/.286/.634
Colby Rasmus*, CF: .239/.301/.493
Brett Lawrie, 3B: .125/.194/.156
Maicer Izturis#, 2B: .169/.206/.277
Yankees
Brett Gardner*, CF: .250/.319/.393
Ben Francisco, DH: .080/.179/.080
Robinson Cano*, 2B: .325/.378/.614
Vernon Wells, LF: .296/.367/.563
Francisco Cervelli, C: .265/.368/.449
Ichiro Suzuki*, RF: .222/.265/.302
Eduardo Nunez, SS: .184/.276/.204
Lyle Overbay*, 1B: .234/.269/.375
Jayson Nix, 3B: .233/.261/.302
Really? Another lefty?
Really? Ben Francisco hitting second, again?
Really? Kevin Youkilis is still out?
Really? FIVE players with sub .300 OBPs?
Yes. Really.
The good news is that the Yankees won’t see another lefty until Saturday.
Pitcher A vs. Pitcher B
If this was all the information you had on two pitchers, which would you choose?
| Pitcher | BB/BF | K/BF | K/BB | GB% | FB% | LD% | IFFB |
| A | 9.1% | 13.9% | 1.53 | 51.3% | 28.6% | 18.0% | 2.2% |
| B | 9.3% | 20.7% | 2.22 | 44.5% | 30.8% | 22.3% | 2.4% |
BB/BF: Walks and hit batters per batters faced
K/BF: Strikeouts per batters faced
K/BB: Strikeout to walk ratio
GB%: Percentage of batted balls that were ground balls
FB%: Percentage of batted balls that were fly balls
LD%: Percentage of batted balls that were line drives
IFFB: Percentage of batted balls that were infield flies
How about if you had this as well?
| Pitcher | FBv | xFIP | FIP |
| A | 92.7 | 4.53 | 4.24 |
| B | 93.0 | 3.98 | 4.57 |
FBv: Average fastball velocity
xFIP: Expected FIP
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
What about if you also had this?
| Dates | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | HBP | SO | BF | RA | ERA |
| 5/13/2010-9/25/2011 | 207.3 | 207 | 96 | 89 | 17 | 74 | 7 | 124 | 889 | 4.17 | 3.86 |
| 4/9/2012-4/21/2013 | 185.0 | 213 | 110 | 105 | 28 | 64 | 12 | 169 | 817 | 5.35 | 5.11 |
I don’t know why Ivan Nova’s peripheral stats have improved while his results have gotten worse. I just know it’s annoying and hope it stops.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Yankees.com: Yanks’ four singles don’t back strong Pettitte
ST. PETERSBURG—The Yankees were handcuffed by Alex Cobb’s masterful pitching performance on Wednesday, managing just four singles as the Rays posted a 3-0 victory at Tropicana Field.
Cobb permitted just two hits that left the infield over his 8 1/3 innings, striking out seven and walking one as the Yankees lost for the 13th time in their last 16 games in St. Petersburg.
The Yankees chased Cobb with Brett Gardner’s single through the right side with one out in the ninth and brought Robinson Cano to the plate as the tying run after Ichiro Suzuki singled, but Fernando Rodney recorded the final two outs to slam the door.
Cobb was great, but the Yankee lineup tonight left a lot to be desired. The Yankees have been better than I thought they’d be so far this year, but I don’t think that can continue with the lineups they’ve been running out there this week. They should get healthier and better, hopefully.
A 3-3 road trip in the division is okay I guess, but neither Toronto or Tampa Bay has been playing all that well this year and it would have been nice to take better advantage of that.