Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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NY Post: Yankees in surprising push for once-celebrated prospect
(53 Comments - 11/17/2017 4:29:53 pm)

Yankees.com: Unanimous decision: Judge named AL ROY
(75 Comments - 11/16/2017 10:18:50 am)

NJ.com: What Yankees manager candidate Eric Wedge revealed about interview
(39 Comments - 11/13/2017 7:20:55 pm)

NYDN: Yankees can pay most for Shohei Otani, with one exception
(112 Comments - 11/11/2017 3:08:24 am)

Yankees.com: Judge up for ROY & MVP; Sevy for Cy Young
(64 Comments - 11/9/2017 1:48:23 pm)

NJ.com: Which prospects will Yankees protect from Rule 5 Draft?
(47 Comments - 11/7/2017 9:40:41 am)

Yankees.com: Tanaka declines to opt out, will stay with Yanks
(61 Comments - 11/6/2017 1:58:25 pm)

NY Post: Masahiro Tanaka is Yankees’ first offseason domino
(48 Comments - 11/3/2017 7:34:09 pm)

Yankees.com: Judge, Gardner among Gold Glove finalists
(113 Comments - 11/2/2017 11:30:29 am)

NY Times: Joe Girardi Is Out as Yankees’ Manager
(250 Comments - 10/30/2017 8:43:59 am)


Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Friday, October 20, 2017

Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Friday, 10/20/2017, 08:08p ET

Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (193.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 5.5 RA9 WAR) vs. Astros: Justin Verlander (R): (206 IP, 3.36 ERA, 5.9 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
7. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
8. Evan Gattis (R) DH .263/.311/.457, 0.9 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 32.9 fWAR

I never thought this series was coming back to Houston.  While the Yankees are now the favorites to win this series, they are probably the underdog in each of the two games that are potentially going to be played.

The good news is that Justin Verlander is no Lance McCullers or Dallas Keuchel.  The bad news is Luis Severino is no CC Sabathia or Sonny Gray or Masahiro Tanaka.  In fact, by Game Score two of Severino’s worst three starts in the regular season were versus Houston, against whom he pitched a total of 7.2 innings while allowing 15 hits , nine runs and four walks.  That’s not particularly good.  We all know that Verlander has dominated the Yankees all season, holding them to one run and averaging 13 K per nine innings.  Dominant.

If there is a Game 7, all momentum will have shifted back to Houston and it’s essentially a guaranteed loss for the Yankees.  The Yankees don’t have to win tonight but I am certain that whomever wins tonight’s game will win the AL pennant and earn the privilege of losing to the Dodgers in the World Series.

The fact that the Yankees have won three games in the ALCS is cool, but it would be even cooler if they won a fourth one.

--Posted at 3:54 pm by SG / 261 Comments | - (0)



Yahoo! Sports: Passan: ALCS Game 5: The New York Yankees are actually likable

The idea that this makes the Yankees what they are – that they’re somehow parlaying this status into motivation to win – is silly. No, this is something instead that’s embedded in them, that for years has motivated them, because so many on the Yankees roster found themselves at a nadir similar to Tanaka’s in May.

For Greg Bird, who missed most of the season with an injury after missing all of the previous season with an injury, it was: Could he stay healthy? He was Wednesday, and he drew first blood on Keuchel, who had entered the game with a career 1.09 ERA against the Yankees, with an RBI single in the third inning.

For Judge, first it was the horror of last season, when in his major league debut he struck out in half his at-bats, and then, after an MVP-type season this year, the clowns that conflated a week’s worth of postseason struggles with an inability to perform in October. It was dumb then, and Judge proved in dumber in the third inning, when he doubled home Brett Gardner to hand the Yankees a 2-0 lead.

For Sanchez, it was down in the minor leagues, where he had stagnated and his prospect luster had dimmed. Scouts never doubted his talent. They did wonder whether he would fulfill it. As his RBI single in the fifth that helped chase Keuchel and his solo home run in the seventh that provided the Yankees’ final run attested: Yes. Yes he would.

--Posted at 9:31 am by SG / 93 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, October 19, 2017

Yankees.com: Masa-zero! Yanks blank Astros, lead ALCS 3-2

The Yankees recognized that they would have to find a way to defeat Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander in order to advance, and they attacked that challenge head on. Having toppled one of the Astros’ aces to move within one win of the 41st World Series in franchise history, they will now focus their attention on the other.
The Bombers’ new core of Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius all contributed run-scoring hits to back Masahiro Tanaka’s dominant effort as the Yankees remained unbeaten at home this postseason, defeating the Astros, 5-0, in Wednesday’s Game 5 of the American League Championship Series.

“We have a great group of guys. We’re always positive,” Sanchez said through an interpreter. “As you know, it’s a long season and there’s up and downs. The important thing is that we always stayed positive, and now we have one more game to get to the World Series. We’ll focus on that.”

That was pretty damned amazing. Keuchel had been next to unhittable against the Yankees (SG showed the stats the other day - just insane) and the Yankees managed to get 4 runs off of him! Meanwhile, Tanaka is making himself so much goddamn money with his postseason performance this year. He’s truly the definition of the “Big Game Pitcher.” Hopefully he somehow doesn’t opt out.

So here we are - the Yankees need to win 1 of the next 2 games to make it to the World Series. Just stunning. The bad news for the Yankees (and the hope for the Astros) is that Justin Verlander is pitching Game 6 and he will be tough to beat, especially at home. You really want to avoid a winner takes all Game 7, so the Yankees need to find a way to figure Verlander out somehow. It does not seem to be particularly likely, but hey, ya never know! Hopefully Luis Severino has a good game on Friday.

Just a remarkable turn of events for the Yankees.

--Posted at 2:53 am by Brian Cronin / 164 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Wednesday, 10/18/2017, 05:08p ET

Astros: Dallas Keuchel (L): (145.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 4.5 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R): (178.1 IP, 4.74 ERA, 1.7 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 30.9 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
4. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
5. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

How can we put Dallas Keuchel’s career dominance over the Yankees into perspective?  How about some data?

Player PA AB Hits 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP K BA OBA Slug% OPS
Dallas Keuchel 212 204 37 7 0 0 8 8 0 62 .181 .210 0.216 .426
Lee Smith 123 112 19 2 0 1 4 11 0 34 .170 .244 0.214 .458
Grant Jackson 115 108 19 3 0 2 10 5 1 23 .176 .217 0.259 .476
Dave McNally 126 111 19 5 0 0 4 13 1 15 .171 .262 0.216 .478
Darren O’Day 182 161 27 2 0 3 9 19 1 45 .168 .258 0.236 .494
Casey Janssen 159 149 28 5 0 2 13 7 3 41 .188 .239 0.262 .501
Pete Harnisch 122 112 22 3 1 0 6 10 0 28 .196 .262 0.241 .503
Greg Minton 112 100 20 1 0 1 7 11 0 10 .200 .277 0.24 .517
Steven Wright 125 115 20 3 0 3 8 9 1 25 .174 .240 0.278 .518
Salome Barojas 213 198 42 3 0 2 15 12 2 25 .212 .263 0.258 .521
Mark Eichhorn 190 170 32 9 0 2 21 15 4 33 .188 .268 0.276 .544
Drew Smyly 159 150 26 5 0 6 9 8 1 42 .173 .220 0.327 .547
Woodie Fryman 113 102 21 0 0 2 6 11 0 17 .206 .283 0.265 .548
Corey Kluber 187 178 33 10 0 5 12 7 2 58 .185 .225 0.326 .551
Koji Uehara 160 156 30 5 0 6 10 4 0 52 .192 .212 0.34 .552
Chris Sale 348 322 61 12 1 8 19 19 6 111 .189 .247 0.307 .554
Jim Barr 113 106 25 2 0 1 5 7 0 6 .236 .283 0.283 .566
Danys Baez 191 174 34 5 1 4 19 16 0 41 .195 .262 0.305 .567
Frank Castillo 159 145 29 4 0 4 9 11 1 20 .200 .258 0.31 .568
Jim Todd 134 121 26 2 0 2 14 13 0 9 .215 .291 0.281 .572

What does this table show?  It is the top 20 career splits for everyone who has faced at least 100 Yankee batters over their career (data goes back to 1974), sorted by OPS in ascending order.  I’ve added Keuchel’s two postseason starts to the data.

Yep.  Keuchel has arguably been the most effective pitcher against the Yankees EVER.  If you want to get even more annoyed by this, note that Keuchel has a career ERA of 1.09 and FIP of 1.47 vs. the Yankees, compared to career ERA/FIP of:

vs. Boston: 9.88/5.93
vs. Tampa Bay: 4.78/4.00

The good news is that Dallas Keuchel is no Justin Verlander or Lance McCullers.  The bad news is Masahiro Tanaka is no Luis Severino or CC Sabathia or Sonny Gray.  With Friday’s game a guaranteed loss, the Yankees have to win today to at least make Houston tire out a bit before their destined trip to the World Series vs. the Dodgers, and to at least let the fans at DNYS go home happy one more time.

The fact that the Yankees have won two games in the ALCS is cool, but it would be even cooler if they won a third one.

--Posted at 1:46 pm by SG / 274 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Judge & fury: Yankees erupt late, tie ALCS!

There is no quit in these “Baby Bombers,” and as their youthful exuberance fuels an incredible postseason run, they have summoned the excitement of Bronx Octobers past. The triple decks of Yankee Stadium are being transformed into a deafening, swaying party zone on a nightly basis.

Aaron Judge homered and delivered a game-tying hit, while Gary Sanchez crushed the go-ahead double in a decisive four-run eighth as the Yankees stunned the Astros with a 6-4 victory in Game 4 on Tuesday to even the American League Championship Series at two games apiece.

“That ballpark is alive. It was unbelievable,” Judge said. “That stadium was rocking, the fans were going crazy. I didn’t know what to do after I touched home plate. That’s why we play this game, for a moment like that.”
Nine outs away from having to face Dallas Keuchel with their season on the line, Judge sparked the Yankees’ comeback from a four-run deficit with his third homer of the postseason, a solo drive to Monument Park that chased starter Lance McCullers Jr. The Yanks rallied for six unanswered runs, ensuring the ALCS presented by Camping World will be completed in Houston. In best-of-seven LCS, teams that win Game 5 to go ahead 3-2 have gone on to win 13 of 16 times.

Yes, they did, indeed, put an exclamation mark in their headlines. MLB.com headlines are so weird. First CC-sick and now an exclamation mark in a headline.

Anyhow, that, of course, was just incredible. Down 4-0 after six and a half innings (Sonny Gray battled like crazy - good for him), the Yankees then scored 6 unanswered runs to win the ballgame. Excellent.

Not only that, but D-Rob and Chapman barely pitched and Tommy Kahnle did not pitch at all, so all three pitchers should be available to pitch multiple innings, if need be, in Wednesday’s Game 5. Hopefully Tanaka can pitch like he did against the Indians in Game 3 of the ALDS.

An underrated aspect of Game 4? The asshole fan who did not just reach over the fence on Judge’s game-tying double, but made a huge effort to reach over the fence on the hit. What a selfish asshole. There is a possibility that they could have ruled that fan interference. Just inexplicably terrible behavior from that fan.

Judge is hot right now and when Judge is hot, well, that’s a good thing. Let’s just hope that a hot Judge can actually do something against Keuchel. And, of course, let’s hope that Tanaka pitches well.

--Posted at 12:48 am by Brian Cronin / 52 Comments | - (0)




Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Tuesday, 10/17/2017, 05:08p ET

Astros: Lance McCullers Jr. (R): (118.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.4 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: Sonny Gray (R): (162.1 IP, 3.55 ERA, 2.6 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 30.9 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) DH .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Austin Romine (R) C .218/.272/.293, -0.6 fWAR
Team Total: 27.5 fWAR

I was thinking the Yankees need more Austin Romine in the lineup.  Just not in the FREAKING ALCS.  I’d assume this means pinch-hitting at some point and losing the DH and severly hindering how long the team can deploy their relievers since they’ll have to keep pinch-hitting for them.

The good news is that Lance Mucullers is no Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander.  The bad news is Sonny Gray is no Masahiro Tanaka or Luis Severino or CC Sabathia.  With tomorrow’s game a guaranteed loss, the Yankees have to win today to at least prevent Houston from celebrating in Yankee Stadium when they wrap up the ALCS. 

The fact that the Yankees won a game in the ALCS is cool, but it would be even cooler if they won a second one.

--Posted at 12:59 pm by SG / 434 Comments | - (0)



Yankees.com: Yanks, Judge make Astros CC sick in G3

Each of the three October contests between the Astros and Yankees have featured loud chants of “M-V-P!” echoing throughout a sold-out venue. Jose Altuve’s fantastic season has continued for Houston, but Monday night’s plaudits were for Aaron Judge, as the Yanks’ rookie right fielder enjoyed a postseason performance for the ages at Yankee Stadium.
Judge crushed a three-run homer in the fourth inning and made several splendid defensive plays, including a fearless crash into the right-field wall in the top of the fourth, as he made his presence felt by powering the Yankees’ surge in an 8-1 victory over the Astros in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series presented by Camping World.

I don’t see how the Yankees just let CC Sabathia go after all he’s done this season and the postseason.

Great win and it gave the Yankees the all-important Pythagoras advantage in the series. Thank goodness Aaron Judge had a good game, as it was getting brutal hearing the coverage he was getting.

Anyhow, the season (more or less) turns on Tuesday afternoon’s game. The Yankees have been avoiding Sonny Gray all postseason since he was bad in Game 1 of the ALDS. Let’s hope that he proves everybody wrong in Game 2! The Astros are countering with Lance McCullers, who has had success against the Yankees, over their normal #4 starter, Brad Peacock. Let’s hope that that was a mistake on their part!

--Posted at 6:02 am by Brian Cronin / 48 Comments | - (0)




Monday, October 16, 2017

Astros (101-61) @ Yankees (91-71), Monday, 10/16/2017, 08:08p ET

Astros: Charlie Morton (R): (146.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 2.8 RA9 WAR) vs. Yankees: CC Sabathia (L): (148.2 IP, 3.69 ERA, 3.4 RA9 WAR)

Lineups
Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Yuli Gurriel (R) DH .299/.332/.486, 1.8 fWAR
6. Evan Gattis (R) C .263/.311/.457, 0.9 fWAR
7. Marwin Gonzalez (S) 1B .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
8. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
9. Cameron Maybin (R) LF .228/.318/.365, 1.2 fWAR
Team Total: 32.5 fWAR

Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .213/.344/.428, 3 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

The good news is that Charlie Morton is no Dallas Keuchel or Justin Verlander.  The bad news is CC Sabathia is no Masahiro Tanaka or Luis Severino.  The fact that the Yankees are even in the ALCS is cool, but it would be even cooler if they won a game.

--Posted at 3:44 pm by SG / 213 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, October 14, 2017

Yankees.com: Yankees fall on walk-off into 0-2 ALCS hole

A legendary pitching performance by Justin Verlander, a memorable swing from Carlos Correa and a mad-dash sprint from Jose Altuve have the Astros two wins away from reaching the World Series presented by YouTube TV.
Correa hit a game-winning double into the right-center-field gap off Aroldis Chapman to score Altuve from first base and send the Astros to a 2-1 walk-off win over the Yankees in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series presented by Camping World on Saturday at Minute Maid Park.

These first two games have been very even, the Astros have just been a little bit better. These aren’t two games that make you think that the Yankees have no chance to win the series, but they’re certainly two really tough, one-run losses. Keuchel and Verlander were both excellent. It really is more of a case of tipping the hat to them than anything else.

--Posted at 10:56 pm by Brian Cronin / 52 Comments | - (0)



Yankees (91-71) @ Astros (101-61), Saturday, 10/14/2017, 04:08p ET

Yankees: Luis Severino (R): (193.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 5.5 RA-9 WAR) vs. Astros: Justin Verlander (R): (34 IP, 1.06 ERA, 5.9 RA-9 WAR)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) LF .264/.350/.428, 3.8 fWAR
2. Aaron Judge (R) RF .284/.422/.627, 8.2 fWAR
3. Didi Gregorius (L) SS .287/.318/.478, 3.9 fWAR
4. Gary Sanchez (R) C .278/.345/.531, 4.4 fWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B .190/.288/.422, -0.4 fWAR
6. Starlin Castro (R) 2B .300/.338/.454, 1.9 fWAR
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF .266/.372/.475, 3.3 fWAR
8. Todd Frazier (R) 3B .222/.365/.423, 3.0 fWAR
9. Chase Headley (S) DH .273/.352/.406, 1.9 fWAR
Team Total: 30.0 fWAR

Astros
1. George Springer (R) CF .283/.367/.522, 4.5 fWAR
2. Josh Reddick (L) RF .314/.363/.484, 3.5 fWAR
3. Jose Altuve (R) 2B .346/.410/.547, 7.5 fWAR
4. Carlos Correa (R) SS .315/.391/.550, 5.2 fWAR
5. Marwin Gonzalez (S) LF .303/.377/.530, 4.1 fWAR
6. Yuli Gurriel (R) 1B .299/.332/.486, 0.0 fWAR
7. Carlos Beltran (S) DH .231/.283/.383, -1.1 fWAR
8. Alex Bregman (R) 3B .284/.352/.475, 3.8 fWAR
9. Brian McCann (L) C .241/.323/.436, 1.6 fWAR
Team Total: 29.1 fWAR

Normally, I’d tell you that you can take all your fancy stats and throw them in the East River.  However, some stats are too powerful and meaningful to ignore.

Luis Severino had an ERA of 10.57 against the Astros and 2.66 against the rest of baseball.  He’s facing a pitcher who did not allow a single run to the Yankees this season.  What do you think is going to happen today?

--Posted at 12:01 pm by SG / 314 Comments | - (0)



2017 Cubs vs. Dodgers NLCS Postseason Odds

Since Discofever asked, here’s a quick overview of the NLCS teams and their projections.  It’s the National League, so I can’t pretend to be well-versed enough in either team to present much beyond what the data says so here it is.

First, the Cubs position players.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Jon Jay LF 27.00 .277/.349/.366 17.58 3.05
Kris Bryant 3B 27.00 .284/.388/.528 16.52 4.54
Anthony Rizzo 1B 27.00 .282/.392/.536 16.42 4.62
Willson Contreras C 27.00 .268/.342/.455 17.77 3.69
Albert Almora CF 26.00 .269/.296/.393 18.30 2.69
Addison Russell SS 26.00 .248/.319/.430 17.71 3.19
Jason Heyward RF 25.00 .265/.340/.413 16.50 3.12
Javier Baez 2B 25.00 .258/.307/.446 17.33 3.14
Kyle Schwarber OF 14.12 .236/.334/.491 9.40 2.00
Ben Zobrist UT 15.00 .259/.351/.418 9.74 1.93
Alex Avila C 4.00 .230/.355/.394 2.58 0.47
Tommy La Stella IF 4.00 .270/.349/.393 2.60 0.47
Ian Happ C 4.00 .241/.312/.440 2.75 0.49
Leonys Martin OF 4.00 .244/.298/.367 2.81 0.40
Total 255.12 168.00 33.81

I should note here that I’m using outs based on 24 times seven games instead of 27 because of the arcane rules in this league that require every team have three automatic outs among their 27.  Then again, without that rule, we wouldn’t have the tactical excitement that only the double switch can bring.

Next up, the Dodgers.

Player Pos PA proj avg/obp/slg Outs BR
Chris Taylor CF 28.00 .268/.332/.422 18.70 3.50
Corey Seager SS 27.86 .285/.351/.476 18.08 4.01
Justin Turner 3B 27.00 .296/.376/.494 16.85 4.21
Cody Bellinger 1B 27.00 .248/.326/.499 18.20 3.87
Yasiel Puig RF 27.00 .277/.353/.492 17.47 4.02
Curtis Granderson LF 24.00 .234/.332/.455 16.03 3.19
Chase Utley 2B 21.00 .241/.313/.390 14.43 2.34
Austin Barnes C 16.00 .258/.343/.404 10.51 1.95
Logan Forsythe 2B 16.00 .250/.341/.401 10.54 1.94
Yasmani Grandal C 15.00 .239/.330/.453 10.05 1.99
Kike Hernandez OF 12.00 .231/.305/.397 8.34 1.29
Andre Ethier OF 11.00 .254/.328/.411 7.39 1.29
Kyle Farmer C 2.00 .300/.300/.350 1.40 0.18
Joc Pederson OF 0.00 .231/.345/.445 0.00 0.00
Adrian Gonzalez 1B 0.00 .242/.287/.355 0.00 0.00
Total 253.86 168.00 33.78

And now, the Cubs pitching staff (which is kind of discombulated at the moment).

Pitcher Role IP R
Jose Quintana SP 10.00 4.13
Jon Lester SP 8.00 3.55
Jake Arrieta SP 6.00 2.68
Kyle Hendricks SP 6.00 2.70
John Lackey SP 5.00 2.42
Wade Davis RP 4.00 1.37
Pedro Strop RP 4.00 1.53
Justin Wilson RP 4.00 1.67
Brian Duensing RP 3.00 1.30
Carl Edwards Jr. RP 3.00 1.20
Mike Montgomery RP 3.00 1.43
Total 56.00 23.97

Lastly, the Dodgers.

Pitcher Role IP R
Clayton Kershaw SP 12.00 3.86
Yu Darvish SP 12.00 5.16
Rich Hill SP 6.00 2.54
Alex Wood RP 5.00 1.99
Kenley Jansen RP 4.00 1.07
Brandon Morrow RP 4.00 1.73
Tony Watson RP 3.00 1.34
Tony Cingrani RP 3.00 1.46
Josh Fields RP 3.00 1.40
Pedro Baez RP 2.00 0.71
Kenta Maeda RP 1.00 0.41
Ross Stripling RP 1.00 0.45
Total 56.00 21.67

At one point in the year, the Dodgers were threatening the 1998 Yankees as the best team of all time.  Luckily for us, they went into a major slump and finished the year as a merely great team.  I don’t know if they’re better than Houston on a talent basis, but they are close enough to have an argument for it.  These projections and depth charts have them scoring 33.78 runs per game and allowing 21.67, which is a 70.8% winning percentage.  The Cubs are essentially the same offensively at 33.81 runs per game, but their pitching is a couple of runs worse. 

The Cubs are still a very good team, and can certainly win this series.  But the Dodgers should be favored, and using these numbers I’d put the odds for getting the chance to get beat by Houston at Dodgers 54.1%, Cubs 45.9%.

--Posted at 7:16 am by SG / 1 Comment | - (0)




Friday, October 13, 2017

Yankees.com: Tanaka solid, but Yanks stifled in LCS Game 1

Dallas Keuchel owned the moment and the Yankees in a way that only he can Friday night, throwing seven masterful innings to lead the Astros to a 2-1 victory in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park.
Keuchel struck out 10—a postseason record by an Astros left-hander—and was backed by key contributions from longtime teammates Jose Altuve, who beat out an infield single and scored the first run in a two-run fourth, and Marwin Gonzalez, who threw out a runner at the plate to end the top of the fifth and preserve the shutout.

Quick aside, how does Camping World have enough money to buy the naming rights to the American League Championship Series? That’s kind of crazy.

Anyhow, it’s weird, I really don’t believe in just punting Game 1 of the ALCS, but at the same time, had the Yankees just thrown Sonny Gray tonight, they would have the pitching advantage in possibly three of the next four games (if Keuchel came back in Game 4, you could argue he’d be less effective on short rest). But that would be punting a game and that’s probably not a good idea, so the Yankees probably made the right move to go to their hottest pitcher. Tanaka just was slightly worse than Keuchel, just like what happened in 2015, when Tanaka was also slightly worse than Keuchel. Chad Green was also “wasted” in a loss, but, again, they had to use him to keep it close. It all just ended about as poorly as it could have ended.

Hopefully Severino pitches a great game on Saturday and hopefully Keuchel pulls a Tevor Bauer and is worse the next time he pitches.

--Posted at 11:47 pm by Brian Cronin / 11 Comments | - (0)



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