Q&A with the Replacement Level Red Sox Blog

In anticipation of this weekend’s bloodbath series with Boston, we though it’d be fun to do a blog crossover with our sister site, The Replacement Level Red Sox Blog.  So we exchanged a few questions with each other to help the other team’s fan base get a sense of how things are going so far.  Anyway, here are the questions we sent them and their responses.

1) Is Clay Buchholz really this good?

Well, yes and no. He’s certainly no Aaron Small, but he’s pretty talented. Buchholz has always had the arsenal to be a dominant pitcher: three different fastballs, a hammer curveball, a wicked changeup and, at times, the ability to command all his offerings. His past struggles have often come from pitching himself into trouble as a result of trying to be too cute with his approach. Then he’d lose faith in his stuff and his ability, and subsequently he’d be a wreck out there for a while.

Buchholz isn’t doing anything dramatically different mechanically, and his stuff is still the same as it’s always been. If there’s been a silver bullet for him this season, it’s been his willingness to attack the strike zone early with four-seam fastballs. In the past, he’d sometimes fall in love with the idea of trying to generate quick ground ball outs with his sinking two-seamer early in the count. Batters caught on to this and began laying off. Buchholz doesn’t throw the two-seamer for strikes as reliably as the four-seamer, so suddenly he was starting off with a lot of 1-0 counts. Now that he’s challenging hitters with first pitch four-seamers more often, Buchholz is starting off with more 0-1 counts and good things are happening. It will be interesting to see if the hitters adjust again and, if so, what Buchholz does in response.

2) What’s been the biggest surprise so far, aside from him?

I think the obvious answer among pitchers (despite his home run-a-palooza as I type this) is John Lackey.  It is not just that Lackey has had success but how he has done it.  When you watch him pitch the stuff and the results match up.  I think most Sox watchers expected him to be improved, since it’s not mathematically possible to be worse than Lackey was in 2011, but now he actually looks like the pitcher he was in Anaheim.

Among position players, the other one is Daniel Nava.  Nava in his previous two seasons had kind of done the Jed Lowrie thing where he would have a couple of great weeks then slump for a month but the two good weeks kept the numbers looking pretty. This year he has stayed reliable. He has gone from being a switch hitter in name only to at least showing some competence on the right side. Nava had a huge BABIP split between batting righty and batting lefty, so he might always have been a good enough hitter from both sides despite the top-line OPS split.

3) Who’s been the biggest disappointment so far?

Will Middlebrooks, no question. Middlebrooks was a big surprise last year for most statistically inclined Sox fans. He kept getting solid prospect rankings despite having no plate discipline whatsoever. Suddenly he’s on the Red Sox, he’s still striking out too much and not walking, but he’s making just enough contact and hitting for more than enough power to be a solid regular. I think a lot of Sox fans figured that the improvement in contact rate had to be real, and even if Middlebrooks never developed any real OBP, a good defensive 3B with 30-HR power is a plus player anyway.

Instead he regressed, the contact rate slid back down to completely unacceptable, and now he’s out with a back injury. The Red Sox backup 3B is Jose Iglesias, whose bat is doubtful at shortstop, and even he’s hitting better than Middlebrooks.

4) Who do you expect to play significantly better or worse going forward?

He’s an easy choice since he’s riding a hot streak, but Jacoby Ellsbury is definitely better than an 85 OPS+. He’s not a .260 hitter when he’s healthy—his BABIP is running about 25 points below his career norms—and even if the home run power never returns, Ellsbury should be better than this.

For playing worse, I should mention that Red Sox fans hate Jarrod Saltalamacchia. He’s hitting well so far, but he hasn’t changed his hitting strategy in any way—he still just takes his big stupid swing at whatever looks good. On top of that, he is a ludicrously bad defensive catcher. We are waiting for his OBP to return to its normal sub-300 level while cringing every time he uncorks a throw eight feet wide of second or stabs at a strike and pulls it out of the zone for a ball. I think he’s worse than his top-line numbers suggest, and he’s probably still going to get worse.

5) How confident are you that the team can sustain their early season success as the season moves on?

I don’t think this is a true .600 team. I do note that the 83-ish win consensus for the Red Sox was based on their having by a good margin the worst starting pitching in the division. As I argued earlier this year, with merely above average starting pitching, the Red Sox are an 87 win club and solidly in the middle of the divisional race. Upgrade to good, and it’s closer to 90. I’d probably peg them as an 87-89 win team that’s been playing over their heads by a few games so far.

6) What other team from the AL East is likely the biggest threat to the Red Sox and Yankees?

  I felt the division was Tampa’s for the taking at the start of the season and I still think they are the team to be wary of.  With the division featuring no pushovers I think the Rays’ depth on the mound is a huge advantage.  If they can stay in striking distance I think having guys like Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Colome and Alex Torres give them innings as the year goes on is going to be a boost.  I think that was a critical part of their comeback (and conversely the Sox failures) in 2011.  I can easily see them just staying steady all year while the rest of the teams in the division have ups and downs because of that.

7) What do you think about having such a high pick in the draft compared to your typical normal lower slots and do you think the Sox will take advantage of it?

The high draft pick is cold comfort for the profoundly dispiriting season we endured last year, but it’s better than nothing. The emerging consensus among draftniks such as Jim Callis, Keith Law, and John Sickels seems to be that the Sox are tuning their draft approach to the high pick and are prepared to be more aggressive than usual. Whereas the Sox typically focus on college players in the first round (about 70% over the last five years), the rumors are currently coalescing around two high school players who may be on the board at #7: RHP Kohl Stewart and OF Clint Frazier. Both of those kids may go in the top six and leave the Sox looking for a Plan B, but they speak to a desire to turn this unusually high pick into the sort of high-ceiling talent the Sox rarely have access to at their usual position late in the round.

8) With pitchers like De Rosa, Webster and Ranaudo in the upper minors, pitching is clearly a strength in the Sox system, how does the rest of the system look? And who should we be worried about next year? In 3 years? in 5?

Pitching is undeniably the greatest strength of the system, as Matt Barnes (AA), Brandon Workman (AA), and Henry Owens (Hi-A) all have a case to be on that list as well. The rest of the system is deep in promising infielders and very thin in the outfield.

SS Xander Bogaerts (20) is the cream of the infield crop, showing much improved plate discipline and contact skills in his first full season of AA. The jaw-dropping power that landed him on a bunch of top ten prospects lists is starting to show up too. Bogaerts’ teammate 3B/1B Michael Almanzar (22) has shown signs he’s finally growing into his power swing and is mirroring Bogaerts’ maturing plate approach. One step down the ladder in Hi-A, 3B Garin Cecchini (22) isn’t so much kicking down the door for a promotion as he is just running straight through it, posting a 356/464/588 line (through Wednesday night’s game) with more walks than strikeouts. 2B Sean Coyle (21) and 2B Mookie Betts (20) have posted strong lines thusfar in A-ball, Coyle recently cooling off after a blistering April and Betts heating up in May.

Who should you worry about next year? Jackie Bradley Jr. Despite a rocky introduction to major league pitching he’s going to hit, and he’s already a spectacular defensive outfielder.

Who should you worry about in 3 years? The pitchers. The Sox aren’t going to hit on every one of their promising arms, but they’re going to have a very good and very deep starting rotation even if they only manage to bring two or three of their young guys to the big leagues successfully.

Who should you worry about in 5 years? Bogaerts. He’ll be in the show before then, but this is when he’ll be hitting his prime.

Update: And here’s our Q&A with them:

Q&A with Replacement Level Yankees Weblog: Part the First