Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

RSS 2.0 Atom Pineda outduels Keuchel as Yanks nip Astros
(27 Comments - 7/26/2016 1:42:46 pm)

Yankees (50-48) @ Astros (54-44), Monday, 7/25/2016, 8:10pm
(32 Comments - 7/26/2016 12:22:29 am) Cubs, Yanks reportedly have deal for Aroldis
(82 Comments - 7/26/2016 12:06:00 am)

MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees, Cubs Working On Trade Involving Aroldis Chapman, Gleyber Torres
(55 Comments - 7/25/2016 1:54:11 pm) Beltran, Teixeira homer to back Eovaldi in win
(48 Comments - 7/25/2016 1:02:20 am)

Giants (58-39) @ Yankees (49-48), Sunday, 7/24/2016, 1:05 PM ET
(25 Comments - 7/24/2016 6:42:40 pm) Yankees see Giants come back for win in 12th
(16 Comments - 7/24/2016 12:52:28 pm) Yankees stay hot, send Giants to 6th straight loss
(47 Comments - 7/23/2016 11:48:34 pm)

Giants (57-38) @ Yankees (48-47), Friday, 7/22/2016, 7:05pm
(20 Comments - 7/23/2016 7:08:44 am)

CBS Sports: Report: Yankees have thought about cutting A-Rod and Mark Teixeira
(29 Comments - 7/22/2016 4:50:07 pm)

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Orioles (53-38) @ Yankees (46-46), Tuesday, 7/19/2016, 7:05pm

Orioles: Vance Worley (R):  (47 IP, 2.87 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1 bWAR) vs. Yankees: Nathan Eovaldi (R):  (98.2 IP, 5.11 ERA, 5.02 FIP, 0.6 bWAR)

1. Adam Jones (R) CF (.262/.308/.445, 1.0 bWAR)
2. Joey Rickard (R) LF (.265/.317/.373, -0.4 bWAR)
3. Manny Machado (R) 3B (.311/.367/.555, 4.2 bWAR)
4. Mark Trumbo (R) RF (.287/.340/.569, 2.0 bWAR)
5. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B (.301/.334/.520, 2.6 bWAR)
6. Pedro Alvarez (L) DH (.249/.316/.486, 0.1 bWAR)
7. J.J. Hardy (R) SS (.263/.297/.409, 0.8 bWAR)
8. Caleb Joseph (R) C (.167/.226/.192, -0.4 bWAR)
9. Ryan Flaherty (L) 1B (.236/.319/.354, 0.7 bWAR)
Lineup Total: (.274/.325/.473, 10.6 bWAR

1. Brett Gardner (L) LF (.260/.353/.362, 2.1 bWAR)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF (.271/.330/.384, 1.9 bWAR)
3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF (.303/.339/.548, 1.5 bWAR)
4. Brian McCann (L) C (.242/.339/.448, 1.2 bWAR)
5. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH (.216/.264/.382, -0.7 bWAR)
6. Didi Gregorius (L) SS (.296/.327/.466, 1.5 bWAR)
7. Starlin Castro (R) 2B (.258/.294/.397, 0.4 bWAR)
8. Chase Headley (S) 3B (.251/.325/.380, 1.8 bWAR)
9. Rob Refsnyder (R) 1B (.269/.330/.355, 0.4 bWAR)
Lineup Total: (.265/.324/.420, 10.1 bWAR

Only Eovaldi can save us from another annoying victory.  For a team that’s 15 games over .500, the Orioles lineup sort of stinks, doesn’t it?

--Posted at 4:02 pm by SG / 19 Comments | - (0) Bullpen trio slams door on Yanks’ win vs. O’s

Alex Rodriguez hit his 696th home run, Ivan Nova hurled six solid innings and Aroldis Chapman wowed the crowd with a 105.1-mph fastball, leading the Yankees to a 2-1 victory over the Orioles on Monday at Yankee Stadium.

Rodriguez’s second-inning blast off Kevin Gausman soared into the left-field bleachers and marked his first home run since June 18, exactly one month prior. It was Rodriguez’s ninth home run of the season, and the slugger said that he has been working on hitting the ball in the air more often.

“I haven’t hit one in so long,” Rodriguez said. “Every game is so important right now, we definitely want to keep all the guys around and keep this team together. We feel like the best baseball is ahead of us, so we have to continue to play well.”

Isn’t the A-Rod stuff a BIT misleading since he barely played during the last month?

Anyhow, quality win for a non-quality team. They’re not seriously going to avoid selling just by being around .500, are they?

--Posted at 4:21 am by Brian Cronin / 17 Comments | - (0)

Monday, July 18, 2016

Orioles (53-37) @ Yankees (45-46), Monday, 7/18/2016, 7:05pm

Orioles: Kevin Gausman (R):  (86.2 IP, 4.15 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 1.4 bWAR) vs. Yankees: Ivan Nova (R):  (80 IP, 5.18 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 0.2 bWAR)

1. Adam Jones (R) CF (.262/.309/.447, 1.1 bWAR)
2. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B (.302/.335/.515, 2.5 bWAR)
3. Manny Machado (R) 3B (.312/.369/.558, 4.2 bWAR)
4. Mark Trumbo (R) RF (.287/.339/.571, 2.0 bWAR)
5. Matt Wieters (S) C (.253/.307/.408, 0.6 bWAR)
6. Pedro Alvarez (L) DH (.254/.322/.497, 0.2 bWAR)
7. J.J. Hardy (R) SS (.268/.298/.417, 0.8 bWAR)
8. Nolan Reimold (R) LF (.273/.329/.445, 0.4 bWAR)
9. Ryan Flaherty (L) 1B (.234/.314/.355, 0.7 bWAR)
Lineup Total: (.278/.329/.487, 12.5 bWAR)

1. Brett Gardner (L) LF (.260/.354/.364, 2.1 bWAR)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF (.275/.334/.389, 2.0 bWAR)
3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF (.297/.334/.542, 1.2 bWAR)
4. Brian McCann (L) C (.244/.340/.451, 1.2 bWAR)
5. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH (.214/.259/.367, -0.8 bWAR)
6. Didi Gregorius (L) SS (.299/.330/.471, 1.6 bWAR)
7. Starlin Castro (R) 2B (.257/.294/.395, 0.4 bWAR)
8. Chase Headley (S) 3B (.254/.328/.384, 1.9 bWAR)
9. Rob Refsnyder (R) 1B (.267/.330/.356, 0.5 bWAR)
Lineup Total: (.265/.325/.420, 10.1 bWAR)

--Posted at 3:42 pm by SG / 17 Comments | - (0)

Yankees,com: Challenged by Girardi, Yanks edge Red Sox

Challenged in what manager Joe Girardi described as “probably as important a game as we’ve had in July,” the Yankees responded behind six strong innings from Masahiro Tanaka to post a 3-1 victory over the Red Sox on Sunday at Yankee Stadium, salvaging the finale of a three-game series.

Tanaka limited Boston to just three hits in an 87-pitch performance as he walked one and struck out seven to outduel David Price, who surrendered 11 hits in 5 2/3 innings. All of New York’s damage off Price came in a three-run fourth inning, highlighted by run-scoring hits by Starlin Castro, Austin Romine and Jacoby Ellsbury.

“We didn’t necessarily have a meeting and talk about how important tonight’s game was, but I think everybody understood the importance,” Tanaka said through an interpreter. “We needed to win today.”

Sure, it was the challenge, Not Tanaka giving up just one run, It was the response to being challenged. Surprisingly, they won’t respond to the challenge tonight when they have a shittier pitcher going.

--Posted at 8:25 am by Brian Cronin / 21 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, July 17, 2016

TGS NY: CC Sabathia’s regression mirrors that of Yankees in 5-2 loss

NEW YORK—Things are becoming awfully silly around Yankee Stadium these days. First, there was The Wave breaking out when the home team was losing 5-1. Then, a raucous ovation for David Ortiz when he lined a ninth-inning single, a sure sign that there were few, if any, Yankees fans remaining in the building.

Finally, there was this gem from the manager after his team had to start a pitcher whose ERA was 8.59 and was making his first appearance after a three-week banishment to the minors:

“[Tomorrow] is probably as important a game as we’ve had in July in a long time.”

I mean, who is kidding whom here?

Sunday night’s finale of the three-game series against the Boston Red Sox may be an intriguing pitching matchup—the always-steady Masahiro Tanaka versus the very puzzling David Price—but for the Yankees, it’s about as important as the first day of pitchers’ fielding practice in spring training.

If the Yankees win it, good. They will draw, once again, to within one game of .500 and, with luck, within 8 1/2 games of the American League East-leading Baltimore Orioles.

And if the Yankees lose it, better. That will mean they are one day closer to the trade deadline and, presumably, one loss closer to convincing the holdouts in the club’s front office to do what every rational mind knows must be done to this roster: dismantle it and start over.
Sabathia has not won a game since June and has now lost his past three decisions. He has allowed 25 earned runs, 39 hits and five home runs in his past 28 1/3 innings—and surrendered five runs (four earned) in five-plus innings on Saturday.

I expected Sabathia to regress.  I didn’t expect him to completely implode.  A few weeks ago he may have been an interesting trade piece for a contender, although the Yankees would have likely had to pay some of his salary along side him.  Now, I can’t see anyone taking a chance on him, especially with him being under contract through 2017 as well.

Anyway, yay loss.  Eight more to go in my dream of the Yankees coming out of the All Star Break and going 0-10. 

I am certain they will win tonight just to spite me.

--Posted at 7:53 am by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, July 16, 2016 Pineda gives up 3 HRs during loss to Boston

Ryan Hanigan, Travis Shaw and Xander Bogaerts each celebrated their return from the All-Star break with homers off Yankees starter Michael Pineda, leading the Red Sox to a 5-3 victory on Friday night at Yankee Stadium.

The trio of blasts supported a strong effort by right-hander Steven Wright, who retired the first 14 men he faced and held the Yanks scoreless until the sixth. Wright permitted three runs and three hits over six innings, improving to 4-1 lifetime against the Yankees.

“Very good combination,” said Red Sox manager John Farrell. “Steven came out, was throwing a lot of strikes, there was quite a bit of violence to his knuckleball. We’ve been swinging the bat better. When we finished out the homestand right before the break, it started to carry through here right in the middle innings.”

The win was the eighth in the last 10 games for the Red Sox, who remain two games behind the Orioles in the American League East. New York is under .500 after the All-Star break for the first time since 1995.

This team is bad. However, Steven Wright also owns the Yankees, so as bad as the team is, this loss really wasn’t all that bad.

But yes, they’re bad. And they should sell. Just saying that as far as losses go, this really wasn’t that bad. The team, though, definitely IS bad.

--Posted at 12:54 am by Brian Cronin / 26 Comments | - (0)

Friday, July 15, 2016

Red Sox (49-38) @ Yankees (44-44), Friday, 7/15/2016, 7:05pm

Red Sox: Steven Wright (R):  (114 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 2.2 bWAR) vs. Yankees: Michael Pineda (R):  (95.1 IP, 5.38 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 0 bWAR)

Red Sox
1. Mookie Betts (R) RF (.304/.344/.525, 4.1 bWAR)
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B (.304/.368/.438, 2.9 bWAR)
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS (.329/.388/.475, 2.9 bWAR)
4. David Ortiz (L) DH (.332/.426/.682, 3.6 bWAR)
5. Hanley Ramirez (R) 1B (.288/.367/.435, 1.3 bWAR)
6. Jackie Bradley (L) CF (.296/.378/.548, 3.8 bWAR)
7. Travis Shaw (L) 3B (.269/.332/.456, 2.1 bWAR)
8. Brock Holt (L) LF (.258/.327/.402, 0.5 bWAR)
9. Ryan Hanigan (R) C (.189/.250/.230, -0.4 bWAR)
Lineup Total: (.298/.366/.492, 20.8 bWAR)

1. Brett Gardner (L) LF (.257/.353/.355, 1.8 bWAR)
2. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF (.279/.338/.398, 2.1 bWAR)
3. Carlos Beltran (S) RF (.299/.338/.550, 1.2 bWAR)
4. Brian McCann (L) C (.248/.347/.462, 1.2 bWAR)
5. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B (.193/.272/.317, -0.5 bWAR)
6. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH (.220/.260/.382, -0.6 bWAR)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS (.298/.328/.468, 1.5 bWAR)
8. Starlin Castro (R) 2B (.256/.293/.395, 0.2 bWAR)
9. Chase Headley (S) 3B (.255/.329/.378, 1.6 bWAR)
Lineup Total: (.260/.321/.415, 8.5 bWAR)

--Posted at 4:25 pm by SG / 22 Comments | - (0) Add 2nd half schedule to list of Yankees concerns

With second half starting, it’s not hard to think up a list of Yankees concerns and questions—most leading back to the ‘buy or sell?’ question that’s engulfed baseball’s most famous organization for the first time in years.

Here’s a wrinkle to add to it, and it could have a major impact on how the Yankees proceed: The second half schedule is brutal. How tough? ESPN’s Buster Olney ranked it the toughest second-half schedule in the sport:

Well, that can’t be good, can it?

Home/road: 41 of their last 74 games are at home.

This is good news.  The Yankees have hit .252/.323/.423 at home vs. .251/.304/.377 on the road.  They’ve also pitched better at home, with a 4.29 ERA at home and 4.61 ERA on the road.

Games left against teams over .500: 58

This is good news.  The Yankees are 24-30 against teams that are .500 or better, compared to 20-14 against teams that are below .500.  Wait, I guess that makes this the opposite of good news, aka bad news.

The Yankees schedule coming out of the break has a pretty good chance to make or break their season.  They are at home with three against Boston starting tonight, followed by four against Baltimore and three against San Francisco.  At that point they’ll have 64 games left in the season.  If they go 5-5, they’ll have to win 37 of those games to get to the 86 wins that it took the Astros to qualify for the second wild card last season.  86 wins may not be enough this year, but it would likely be enough to keep them from selling.

Is it bad form to root for the Yankees to lose the next 10 games?

--Posted at 10:36 am by SG / 12 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, July 14, 2016

TGS: Yankees’ baseball operations at odds with business side

NEW YORK—As they head into the second half of the 2016 season, the New York Yankees are the definition of mediocrity with a 44-44 record. They face a daunting task to make the playoffs, sitting in fourth place in the AL East, 7 1/2 games behind the division-leading Baltimore Orioles and needing to leapfrog a half-dozen teams to qualify for the second wild-card berth.

And yet, there is a division within the inner ranks of the organization as to whether the team should be buyers or sellers at the upcoming non-waiver trade deadline.

According to a baseball source who spoke to ESPN on condition of anonymity, the opposing factions are composed of the baseball operations people, led by general manager Brian Cashman, who believe the team should sell off its assets and plan for the future, and the business side, which is led by owner Hal Steinbrenner and team president Randy Levine, who hold to the belief that the club is still in contention.

According to the source, the baseball people would be willing to trade the core of the team, players such as closer Aroldis Chapman, first baseman Mark Teixeira, starting pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Ivan Nova, and right fielder Carlos Beltran, who has been the team’s best hitter all season and its only position player to make the All-Star team.

Chapman, Teixeira, Beltran and Nova will be free agents after the season; Eovaldi is arbitration-eligible this winter and will be a free agent in 2018.

The source also said the Yankees would like to move center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury and catcher Brian McCann, a much more difficult proposition because of their contracts. Ellsbury is signed through 2020 at $21 million per year, with a club option for 2021 that includes a $5 million buyout, and McCann is signed through 2018 at $17 million a year. The Yankees are also said to be “willing to listen’’ on setup man Andrew Miller, who had an excellent first half and accompanied Beltran and reliever Dellin Betances to San Diego for the All-Star Game.

As rygel said in the last post, if the owner thinks the team shouldn’t sell, then they probably won’t be selling.

Question.  If you could remove a single contract from the Yankees, which one would it be?  It would have to be Ellsbury, wouldn’t it?

--Posted at 3:29 pm by SG / 32 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, July 13, 2016

NY Post: Why next 10 games could decide the Yankees’ fate this season

SAN DIEGO — Call it the must-win homestand for the Yankees.

Should the Yankees be buyers or sellers? That’s the question that ended the first half for the team and answers should come quickly as the Yankees open up at home after the All-Star break with 10 games, three against the Red Sox, four against the Orioles and three more against the Giants.

There is one way to become a buyer: Win games. And start on this homestand.

“We do need to start playing well, .500 is not going to cut it anymore,” Yankees All-Star reliever Andrew Miller told The Post before Tuesday night’s All-Star Game at Petco Park.

“It’s really good teams we play this homestand,” Miller said. “We’ve played well against some really good teams and what we just did in Cleveland [winning three of four] was certainly a testament to that. We know the challenges ahead of us and it will be more rewarding if we beat teams like that.”

The biggest problem for the fourth-place Yankees has been in their own division with the three teams ahead of them in the AL East — the Orioles, Red Sox and Blue Jays. Against those three teams, the Yankees are 6-15.

Log 5 using year to date winning percentages and accounting for home field says the Yankees should go something like 4.5-5.5 on this home stand.  Using Fangraphs’ rest of the year projections instead says 4.8-5.2.  If they go 5-5, then they’ll be sitting at 49-49 and would have to win 37 of their last 54 to get to the 86 wins it took the Astros to qualify for the second wild card, which may not even be enough this year.  And even though 5.5 games back of the second wild card doesn’t seem insurmountable in a vacuum, it is a lot harder when you have to get past six other teams.

You can’t predict baseball, but I’d be surprised if the Yankees even managed to pull off 5-5 here.

But you never know.

--Posted at 8:33 am by SG / 49 Comments | - (0)

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