Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

RSS 2.0 Atom “Ya Couldn’t Say Surprised”
(45 Comments - 10/7/2015 1:19:21 pm)

Astros (86-76) @ Yankees (87-75) , Tuesday October 6, 2015 , 8:00 PM **AL Wild Card**
(301 Comments - 10/7/2015 2:57:26 am)

Bombers Beat: Yankees announce roster for Wild Card game
(58 Comments - 10/6/2015 5:51:51 pm)

NY Post: The weekend-long bender behind CC Sabathia’s rehab stay
(14 Comments - 10/6/2015 11:58:10 am)

CBS Sports: CC Sabathia checks into alcohol rehab, will not pitch in postseason
(45 Comments - 10/6/2015 10:39:05 am)

NYDN: Yankees could have a problem against Astros’ ace Dallas Keuchel
(71 Comments - 10/5/2015 11:20:25 pm) Yanks to host WC Game despite loss to O’s
(36 Comments - 10/5/2015 11:56:26 am)

Yankees (87-74) @ Orioles (80-81) , Sunday October 4, 2015 , 3:05 PM
(70 Comments - 10/4/2015 6:59:41 pm) Yanks drop Game 2, delay WC home-field clinch
(20 Comments - 10/4/2015 5:55:36 pm)

Yankees (87-72) @ Orioles (78-81) , Saturday October 3, 2015 , House Money Double Header
(81 Comments - 10/3/2015 10:28:02 pm)

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Red Sox (77-80) @ Yankees (86-71) , Wednesday September 30, 2015 , 7:05 PM

Red Sox: Wade Miley (L) (188.2 IP, 4.39 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 2.7 bWAR) vs. Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R) (149 IP, 3.38 ERA, 3.95 FIP, 3.1 bWAR)

Red Sox
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF: (.293/.342/.477), 5.9 bWAR
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B: (.296/.361/.448), 2.1 bWAR
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.324/.356/.426), 4.7 bWAR
4. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.269/.355/.543), 2.9 bWAR
5. Travis Shaw (L) 1B: (.273/.335/.498), 1.1 bWAR
6. Brock Holt (L) RF: (.282/.351/.381), 2.8 bWAR
7. Blake Swihart (S) C: (.272/.319/.394), 0.5 bWAR
8. Deven Marrero (R) 3B: (.256/.256/.333), -0.3 bWAR
9. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L) LF: (.259/.343/.522), 2.3 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 22.0

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.262/.320/.351), 2.2 bWAR
2. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.263/.326/.376), 1.6 bWAR
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.250/.353/.486), 2.9 bWAR
4. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.274/.333/.467), 0.7 bWAR
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.235/.321/.444), 3.0 bWAR
6. Chris Young (R) LF: (.246/.313/.443), 1.0 bWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.250/.327/.514), 0.6 bWAR
8. Rob Refsnyder (R) 2B: (.259/.276/.407), -0.2 bWAR
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.265/.318/.367), 3.2 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 15.0

--Posted at 3:12 pm by SG / 152 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, September 29, 2015 Yanks’ path to postseason hits speed bump

The Yankees were hopeful that Tuesday would be the day they’d celebrate a postseason berth and 10,000 regular-season wins, but a rainout in another game and the first inning of their own 10-4 loss to the Red Sox brought those plans to a screeching halt.

The Yankees needed a win on their end, a Twins loss and either a loss by the Rangers or Angels on Tuesday to clinch their first playoff berth since 2012. But the Minnesota-Cleveland game was postponed due to rain, making it impossible for the Yanks to clinch even if they had rallied to win their own game.

Michael Pineda gave up six earned runs in the first frame as the Red Sox batted around. It was too much damage for the Yanks, who scored four runs in the bottom half of the frame, to overcome.

Do you know what the Yankees’ record is in their last ten games? It seems like it must be, like, 2-8 or 3-7, right? It’s 5-5. They’ve played .500 baseball their last ten games. They’ve played .500 baseball their last four games. In other words, if you want to place higher priority on the last two losses than the wins that preceded them, then fair enough, but I don’t think there’s any real reason to do so. This is not some great team, but nor is it a team in the midst of a free fall. Michael Pineda sometimes shits the bed. That’s just something he does. It sucks. He is a major disappointment. But it is not some grim premonition of doom, either.

You all also get that the Angels finish the season with four games against Texas, right? That’s very, very good news for the Yankees.

Here are the records, presuming Houston and Anaheim both win tonight (Houston is only up a run right now in the middle of the fifth, but that is pretty much a lock for a win, I imagine):

Yankees: 86-71 (5 game left to play)
Texas: 85-72 (5 games left to play)
Houston: 84-74 (4 games left to play)
Angels: 83-74 (5 games left to play)
Twins: 81-75 (6 games left to play, including a doubleheader tomorrow)

See how hard it is for the Yankees to NOT make the playoffs? Two of those AL West teams can make the playoffs without it hurting the Yankees (as one can win the division and the other can win the other Wild Card), but because two of them play each other four times at the end of the season, that almost assuredly eliminates one of them. So it would come down to the Twins having to make up 4 losses in 6 games. Do you like those chances? Minnesota finishes the season with three against Kansas City. KC has been terrible recently, but they’re still unlikely to get swept by the Twins.

If the Yankees win one more game and the Rangers and Twins lose one more game, the Yankees make the playoffs. It seems pretty hard to imagine that the Yankees will go 0-5 while the Rangers and Twins go 5-0 and 6-0, respectively.

Also, the Orioles are throwing a lefthanded pitcher against Toronto on Thursday, so that’s one less lefty for the Yankee to face against Baltimore.

So don’t worry too much. This team is not a great one (they’re considering having John Ryan Murphy play first base to get another righthanded bat into the lineup, for crying out loud!), but they’re still very likely to be playing in the Wild Card Play-In Game come Tuesday.


Well, Houston surprisingly lost (our old friend Robbie Cano tied the game with a home run and then the Mariners won it in the 8th inning). So here are the records through tonight’s games:

Yankees: 86-71 (5 game left to play)
Texas: 85-72 (5 games left to play)
Angels: 83-74 (5 games left to play)
Houston: 83-75 (4 games left to play)
Twins: 81-75 (6 games left to play, including a doubleheader tomorrow)

Things are basically the same as they were before, only now the Yankees’ odds go up even more, as now they don’t even necessarily need a Ranger loss, as the Rangers can win out and the Yankees would still make the playoffs if they win one of their last five games and Houston loses one of their last five games and Minnesota loses one of their last six games.

--Posted at 10:17 pm by Brian Cronin / 39 Comments | - (0)

Red Sox (76-80) @ Yankees (86-70) , Tuesday September 29, 2015 , 7:05 PM

Red Sox: Rick Porcello (R) (157 IP, 5.04 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 0.4 bWAR) vs. Yankees: Michael Pineda (R) (151 IP, 3.99 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 2.3 bWAR)

--Posted at 2:10 pm by SG / 52 Comments | - (0)

2015 American League Leaders in Outs Per Game

Minimum 100 games played.

Rk Name G Outs Outs/Game
1 Alcides Escobar 142 464 3.268
2 Brian Dozier 152 482 3.171
3 Jacoby Ellsbury* 107 339 3.168
4 Adam Jones 137 424 3.095
5 Trevor Plouffe 147 453 3.082
6 Jose Altuve 149 459 3.081
7 Robinson Cano* 151 465 3.079
8 Melky Cabrera# 153 470 3.072
9 Billy Burns# 121 370 3.058
10 Adrian Beltre 137 418 3.051
11 Albert Pujols 151 460 3.046
12 Hanley Ramirez 105 319 3.038
13 Mookie Betts 139 422 3.036
14 Alexei Ramirez 148 449 3.034
15 Torii Hunter 134 404 3.015
16 Elvis Andrus 154 464 3.013
17 Austin Jackson 107 322 3.009
18 Salvador Perez 136 409 3.007
19 Kole Calhoun* 153 460 3.007
20 Adam Eaton* 148 443 2.993
--Posted at 10:49 am by SG / 19 Comments | - (0) Yankees’ postseason berth on hold

It would have been a tidy wrap for the Yankees to secure their first postseason berth since 2012 on the same night they notched the 10,000th regular-season victory in franchise history, but those plans will have to be put on hold for another evening.

The Red Sox defeated New York, 5-1, at Yankee Stadium, to delay the milestone victory for another night. Since the Yankees needed an extensive sequence of events in order to clinch, including both a win and losses by the Twins, Rangers and Angels, that will have to wait at least one more night as well. Both the Twins and Angels won on Monday.

The Yankees can secure at least an American League Wild Card on Tuesday with a victory over the Red Sox if the Twins and Angels lose their respective games Tuesday. With the Blue Jays beating the Orioles, 4-3, on Monday, Toronto has a magic number of two for clinching the AL East crown.

It is really quite maddening when you realize that the Yankees have scored the second most runs in the American League (a distant second, but still) and yet they haven’t been able to score for a month or so now. Don’t get me wrong, a big part of that is that their best offensive player went missing right around that time and their second-best offensive player more or less went missing around the same time (while still getting regular Designated Hitter at-bats since). Not the sort of thing you want to see from a team headed to the postseason, especially since their “reward” if they win the Play-In Game looks pretty much like it will be left-handed ace starting pitcher David Price, as the Blue Jays (who won yet another game that they trailed late - it is like the Jays took all of their early-season bad luck and just flipped it, as they seem to have nothing but good luck lately) are now one game up on the KC Royals, and I suspect that to be about that for the best record in the American League race.

In a rare piece of good news, Masahiro Tanaka has recovered from his injury suffered due to the foolish inability of the National League to enter the 21st Century, so he will start Wednesday in a tune-up for the Wild Card Play-In Game (PRESENTED BY BUDWEISER! DON’T FORGET THAT THE WILD CARD GAME IS PRESENTED BY BUDWEISER!). His hamstring is apparently fine, as is his elbow (the elbow stuff is weird, “How’s the elbow?” “Uhmmm…why would there be a problem with my elbow NOW?”)

--Posted at 4:54 am by Brian Cronin / 2 Comments | - (0)

Monday, September 28, 2015

Red Sox (75-80) @ Yankees (86-69), Monday,  September 28, 2015, 7:05pm

BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez (#52, 22, LHP, 9-6, 3.97) vs.  NYY: Ivan Nova (#47, 28, RHP, 6-9, 4.87

--Posted at 3:09 pm by SG / 35 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, September 27, 2015 Yanks’ magic number at 3 after beating White Sox

The Yankees got one step closer to the playoffs Sunday with a 6-1 win over the White Sox. New York remains four games behind American League East-leading Toronto, while cutting its magic number to clinch a postseason berth to three with seven games remaining.

Brian McCann delivered a sacrifice RBI to score Jacoby Ellsbury in the first after a walk and two Jose Abeu errors loaded the bases for the Yanks. The deciding run came in the sixth on Dustin Ackley’s homer. Later that inning, Rob Brantly’s passed ball allowed Slade Heathcott to score from third, making it 3-0, and Ellsbury’s RBI single in the seventh made it 4-1. The final runs came in the eighth.

Chicago’s run came in the seventh when pinch-hitter Avisail Garcia hit his 13th homer over the center-field wall. It was just the second pinch-hit homer this season for the White Sox, who finished 36-45 on the road.

At least is finally giving up on the division. No “still four games back!” stuff.

Severino was excellent again. A lot of the talk around him today is whether he would actually be the pitcher in the Play-In Game if Tanaka is unavailable. Speaking of that, here is a snippet from about Tanaka’s availability, “Girardi said Tanaka would have to start by Thursday if he was going to be able to start in both one more regular-season game and the American League Wild Card Game presented by Budweiser. A start after Thursday wouldn’t give him enough days of rest for the Wild Card Game.” Yes, I shit you not, the article actually says “the American League Wild Card Game presented by Budweiser.” That is hilarious.

In addition, in case people were wondering where the heck Stephen Drew has gone, he is suffering dizziness due to a bad sinus infection. He explained “that he thinks sinus congestion instigated fluid in his ears, which aggravated damage done when he was hit in the head by a fastball two years ago.” That kind of sucks for him.

Anyhow, hopefully the Yankees clinch home field for the Play-In Game in the next few games against Boston. Always fun to celebrate with the Red Sox in town.

--Posted at 10:24 pm by Brian Cronin / 35 Comments | - (0)

White Sox (73-82) @ Yankees (85-69) , Sunday September 27, 2015 , 1:05 PM

White Sox: Erik Johnson (R) (23 IP, 3.52 ERA, 6.02 FIP, 0.4 bWAR) vs. Yankees: Luis Severino (R) (49.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 4.39 FIP, 1.3 bWAR)

White Sox
1. Adam Eaton (L) DH: (.283/.356/.422), 3.4 bWAR
2. Jose Abreu (R) 1B: (.289/.347/.503), 3.8 bWAR
3. Melky Cabrera (S) LF: (.275/.317/.397), 1.6 bWAR
4. Trayce Thompson (R) CF: (.306/.364/.582), 1.3 bWAR
5. J.B. Shuck (L) RF: (.273/.351/.356), 0.9 bWAR
6. Mike Olt (R) 3B: (.195/.271/.351), -0.3 bWAR
7. Rob Brantly (L) C: (.174/.231/.348), 0.0 bWAR
8. Carlos Sanchez (S) 2B: (.228/.269/.337), 1.0 bWAR
9. Tyler Saladino (R) SS: (.234/.275/.347), 1.3 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 13.0

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.260/.316/.347), 2.0 bWAR
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.260/.346/.408), 3.2 bWAR
3. Carlos Beltran (S) DH: (.275/.334/.470), 0.8 bWAR
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.239/.327/.452), 3.1 bWAR
5. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.242/.322/.523), 0.5 bWAR
6. Dustin Ackley (L) 2B: (.230/.280/.405), -0.9 bWAR
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.267/.316/.369), 3.0 bWAR
8. Slade Heathcott (L) RF: (.350/.318/.700), 0.4 bWAR
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 3B: (.218/.261/.333), -0.1 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 12.0

That doesn’t strike me as the lineup of a team that is actually heading to the postseason.

--Posted at 11:23 am by SG / 65 Comments | - (0)

Saturday, September 26, 2015 Yankees slip by White Sox, stay 4 back of Jays

Chase Headley and Alex Rodriguez drove in runs with a pair of consecutive ground-rule doubles, Adam Warren combined with three relievers on a three-hitter and the Yankees posted a 2-1 victory over the White Sox on Saturday at Yankee Stadium.

The win reduced the Yankees’ magic number to clinch a postseason berth to four. New York remains four games behind the Blue Jays in the chase for the American League East title with eight games remaining. The White Sox officially were eliminated from postseason contention and guaranteed a third straight losing season.

“These games are all going to be great preparation for October,” said Rodriguez, who knocked in the deciding run facing Chicago starter John Danks, who scattered six hits over six innings, in the sixth inning. “We’re going to be in a lot of tough games, a lot of tight games. We’ve been facing really good pitching and tonight was a good win.”

Warren recovered from a shaky first inning to complete six innings of one-run ball, picking up his seventh victory and his first since rejoining the rotation. Justin Wilson and Dellin Betances hurled scoreless innings to set up for closer Andrew Miller, who logged his 36th save in 38 chances.

It’s adorable how how still talks about the division.

Anyhow, Adam Warren and the bullpen were excellent today and I loved the big hit from A-Rod, but boy, yet another terrible day overall from the offense. This does not bode well for the Play-In Game.

--Posted at 8:41 pm by Brian Cronin / 10 Comments | - (0)

White Sox (73-81) @ Yankees (84-69) , Saturday September 26, 2015 , 4:05 PM

White Sox: John Danks (L) (166.2 IP, 4.59 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 0.2 bWAR) vs. Yankees: Adam Warren (R) (122.1 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 2.2 bWAR)

White Sox


--Posted at 10:52 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)

Friday, September 25, 2015

White Sox (72-81) @ Yankees (84-68) , Friday September 25, 2015 , 7:05 PM

White Sox: Carlos Rodon (L) (133.1 IP, 3.78 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.4 bWAR) vs. Yankees: CC Sabathia (L) (155.2 IP, 4.80 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 0.8 bWAR)

White Sox
1. Adam Eaton (L) CF: (.283/.356/.425), 3.3 bWAR
2. Jose Abreu (R) 1B: (.291/.349/.509), 4.0 bWAR
3. Trayce Thompson (R) RF: (.315/.378/.618), 1.4 bWAR
4. Melky Cabrera (S) LF: (.277/.319/.401), 1.6 bWAR
5. Leury Garcia (S) DH: (.154/.214/.154), -0.1 bWAR
6. Alexei Ramirez (R) SS: (.250/.285/.358), 1.0 bWAR
7. Mike Olt (R) 3B: (.197/.269/.324), -0.3 bWAR
8. Tyler Flowers (R) C: (.228/.284/.348), 0.2 bWAR
9. Gordon Beckham (R) 2B: (.206/.272/.319), 0.6 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 11.7

1. Brett Gardner (L) CF: (.260/.345/.409), 3.2 bWAR
2. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.262/.327/.375), 1.2 bWAR
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.251/.355/.492), 3.0 bWAR
4. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.279/.337/.477), 1.0 bWAR
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.240/.324/.455), 2.9 bWAR
6. Chris Young (R) LF: (.247/.310/.447), 1.0 bWAR
7. Greg Bird (L) 1B: (.256/.333/.552), 0.7 bWAR
8. Rob Refsnyder (R) 2B: (.176/.167/.353), -0.5 bWAR
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.267/.315/.370), 2.9 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 15.4

Playing Refsnyder again?  Apparently Girardi doesn’t even want to win a wild card at this point.

--Posted at 3:19 pm by SG / 76 Comments | - (0) Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees receive good news on bum leg

NEW YORK — The Yankees received good news Thursday evening when doctors cleared right-hander Masahiro Tanaka to throw a bullpen either Friday or Saturday.

Tanaka was skipped his last start in Toronto because of a Grade 1 hamstring pull he suffered last Friday in Queens against the Mets. He strained it when running from the batter’s box after laying a bunt down, something he doesn’t do very often since he plays in the American League.

Manager Joe Girardi said late Thursday night he doesn’t know which day it will be that Tanaka will throw his bullpen, but said either way it would line Tanaka up to pitch in a game early next week, either Monday or Tuesday.

This, then, would likely set Tanaka up to pitch October 6, the American League Wild Card game that appears to be the Yankees’ avenue into the playoffs. (They’re currently up 4.5 games on the Houston Astros for the first slot.)

Since Tanaka probably wouldn’t have pitched much better than Nova did, his missing his turn Wednesday turned out to not matter very much.  I’m not looking forward to the Yankees facing Dallas Keuchel in a win or go home situation, so hopefully the Astros have to fight to the end and can’t set up their rotation to pitch him if they make it.

--Posted at 8:14 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, September 24, 2015

White Sox (72-80) @ Yankees (83-68) , Thursday September 24, 2015 , 7:05 PM

White Sox: Chris Sale (L) (194.2 IP, 3.47 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 2.8 bWAR) vs. Yankees: Michael Pineda (R) (145 IP, 4.10 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 2.0 bWAR)

White Sox
1. Adam Eaton (L) CF: (.280/.353/.423), 3.2 bWAR
2. Jose Abreu (R) 1B: (.292/.350/.511), 4.0 bWAR
3. Melky Cabrera (S) LF: (.277/.319/.402), 1.5 bWAR
4. Trayce Thompson (R) RF: (.314/.372/.593), 1.2 bWAR
5. Adam LaRoche (L) DH: (.211/.298/.347), -0.6 bWAR
6. Alexei Ramirez (R) SS: (.248/.284/.357), 1.0 bWAR
7. Carlos Sanchez (S) 2B: (.232/.272/.343), 1.2 bWAR
8. Tyler Flowers (R) C: (.224/.281/.346), 0.2 bWAR
9. Tyler Saladino (R) 3B: (.239/.280/.353), 1.4 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 13.1

1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.260/.316/.348), 1.7 bWAR
2. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.260/.326/.374), 1.1 bWAR
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.253/.356/.495), 3.0 bWAR
4. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.277/.336/.470), 0.8 bWAR
5. Chris Young (R) LF: (.246/.310/.449), 1.0 bWAR
6. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.281/.322/.417), 0.4 bWAR
7. Dustin Ackley (L) 1B: (.233/.283/.411), -0.9 bWAR
8. Rob Refsnyder (R) 2B: (.143/.133/.357), -0.5 bWAR
9. Brendan Ryan (R) SS: (.226/.270/.345), -0.1 bWAR
Total Lineup bWAR: 6.5

Really?  6.5 bWAR?

I guess this is Girardi conceding the division.  I mean how can you possibly play Refsnyder?

--Posted at 3:16 pm by SG / 75 Comments | - (0)

NY Times: Russell Martin Crushes Pitch, and Yankees’ Hopes

TORONTO — When Russell Martin swung and belted a no-doubt-about-it drive into the left-field seats, the baseball was not the only thing to which the Yankees could wave goodbye.

Gone, too — in all likelihood — are their division-title hopes after Martin’s three-run, seventh-inning homer delivered the crowning blow in the Toronto Blue Jays’ 4-0 win Wednesday, which put them three and a half games ahead of the Yankees with 11 days remaining in the regular season.

If it was especially painful that the Yankees were beaten by Martin, a catcher whom they allowed to leave as a free agent after the 2012 season, or that they were stymied for the second time this month by the Long Island native Marcus Stroman, they were most disappointed that the division seemed to be slipping away.

“It’s not mathematically impossible, but it’s difficult,” said Manager Joe Girardi, whose team must face the White Sox’ ace, Chris Sale, when it returns home Thursday night. “We have to play extremely well. We’re going to have to be almost perfect.”

I say It’s pretty much mathematically impossible.

If you had told me before the season started that the Yankees were still going to be contending for the AL East on September 23 and playing a game which would leave them just one game back in the loss column with a victory, I’d have been happy with it.  But if you told me they’d have blown a seven game division lead in less than two months, not so much.

So yeah, they’ve been better than I expected and are almost a lock to get into the play-in game and that’s better than I thought before the season started.  But it’s still disappointing given where they were on July 28.

I’m not seeing a team that is going to get out of the ALDS either way, so I’m not sure it matters all that much.

--Posted at 8:01 am by SG / 55 Comments | - (0)

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