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The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 








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Red Sox (47-59) @ Yankees (59-45) , Tuesday August 4, 2015 , 7:05 PM
(31 Comments - 8/4/2015 7:47:45 pm)

NY Times: Yankees Pitching Prospect Luis Severino Draws Raves Before Debut Against Red Sox
(31 Comments - 8/4/2015 6:00:34 pm)

NY Times: A Resurgent Didi Gregorius Helps the Yankees Pound the White Sox
(44 Comments - 8/4/2015 11:11:31 am)

Yankees (58-45) @ White Sox (50-52) , Sunday August 2, 2015 , 2:10 PM
(37 Comments - 8/3/2015 1:57:12 am)

Yankees (58-44) @ White Sox (49-52) , Saturday August 1, 2015 , 7:10 PM
(32 Comments - 8/2/2015 1:29:11 pm)

MLBTR: Yankees To Promote Luis Severino
(25 Comments - 8/2/2015 2:32:56 am)

Yankees (57-44) @ White Sox (49-51) , Friday July 31, 2015 , 8:10 PM
(56 Comments - 8/1/2015 2:03:16 am)

MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Pursuing Craig Kimbrel; Astros Interested As Well
(145 Comments - 7/31/2015 7:18:11 pm)

Yankees (57-43) @ Rangers (48-52) , Thursday July 30, 2015 , 8:05 PM
(155 Comments - 7/31/2015 9:25:01 am)

MLB Trade Rumors: Yankees Acquire Dustin Ackley
(30 Comments - 7/30/2015 8:17:07 pm)


Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.
-alskor

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.
sabernar

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.
OldYanksFan




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Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Yankees (56-42) @ Rangers (47-51) , Tuesday July 28, 2015 , 8:05 PM

Yankees: Chris Capuano (L) (30.1 IP, 5.64 ERA, 4.52 FIP) vs. Rangers: Martin Perez (L) (11 IP, 4.91 ERA, 3.98 FIP)

Lineups
Yankees
TBA

Rangers:
1. Delino DeShields (R) CF: (.275/.362/.402)
2. Rougned Odor (L) 2B: (.265/.332/.474)
3. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.256/.296/.385)
4. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.336/.405/.511)
5. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.251/.303/.331)
6. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.287/.334/.520)
7. Ryan Rua (R) LF: (.194/.217/.403)
8. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.230/.309/.402)
9. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.225/.313/.427)

--Posted at 3:52 pm by SG / 119 Comments | - (0)



NY Post: Samardzija? Price? Rival execs insist Yankees will land pitcher

This is one of those moments when it does not matter what Brian Cashman says, which is that he is more likely not to make a trade than make one between now and Friday’s non-waiver deadline.

It does not matter that his history is generally to do deals that augment the roster at this time of year rather than scream blockbuster.

His fellow executives simply ignore the words and the deeds. They see the Yankees in first place with a strong chance to win the division. They see a power-bat, power-bullpen arm combo that could do October damage. Thus, rival executives simply do not believe this deadline is coming and going without Cashman improving his rotation.

One top AL executive said definitively what many suggested: “There is no question the Yankees are getting a pitcher.”

The Yankees definitely could use a starting pitcher.  I just fear the cost of getting one.

--Posted at 9:15 am by SG / 81 Comments | - (0)




Monday, July 27, 2015

Yankees (55-42) @ Rangers (47-50) , Monday July 27, 2015 , 8:05 PM

Yankees: Ivan Nova (R) (29.2 IP, 3.34 ERA, 4.82 FIP) vs. Rangers: Matt Harrison (L) (10 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.97 FIP)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF: (.295/.373/.464)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.257/.310/.473)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.277/.375/.539)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.259/.363/.550)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.250/.326/.454)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.256/.306/.420)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.263/.313/.387)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.242/.291/.325)
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.263/.333/.421)

Rangers:
1. Rougned Odor (L) 2B: (.271/.339/.486)
2. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.232/.311/.407)
3. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.337/.406/.514)
4. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.285/.329/.516)
5. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.259/.300/.390)
6. Josh Hamilton (L) LF: (.233/.283/.419)
7. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.250/.301/.328)
8. Leonys Martin (L) CF: (.218/.263/.316)
9. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.229/.317/.433)

--Posted at 4:05 pm by SG / 103 Comments | - (0)



CAIRO’s updated 2015 Final Projected Standings and Postseason Odds as of July 27

In the last thread, bigknowz asked:

SG, any chance you can run a simulation on final standings?  Seems like the Yanks are in really good shape.

So I ran these overnight, and he’s right.  The Yankees are in good shape.

Date 7/27/2015
Iterations 1000000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Yankees 88 74 720 688 52.7% 10.5% 8.6% 71.8% 78-98
Blue Jays 84 78 816 708 26.5% 11.4% 11.3% 49.2% 75-94
Orioles 82 80 708 654 12.7% 8.6% 9.2% 30.5% 72-91
Rays 80 82 599 614 6.5% 5.2% 6.7% 18.4% 70-89
Red Sox 75 87 708 763 1.6% 1.1% 2.0% 4.7% 65-85
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Royals 92 70 679 616 80.5% 6.2% 3.9% 90.7% 82-102
Tigers 81 81 715 718 8.9% 10.0% 9.8% 28.7% 72-91
Twins 80 82 682 715 5.3% 8.6% 8.3% 22.3% 71-90
Indians 77 85 666 698 2.7% 3.6% 4.6% 10.9% 68-87
White Sox 77 85 630 690 2.6% 3.6% 4.5% 10.7% 68-87
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Angels 89 73 685 613 62.1% 9.3% 6.9% 78.3% 79-99
Astros 84 78 696 672 25.6% 12.7% 14.1% 52.4% 75-94
Mariners 80 82 620 641 6.8% 5.1% 6.7% 18.6% 70-89
Athletics 77 85 679 625 3.0% 2.2% 3.6% 8.7% 67-87
Rangers 76 86 713 779 2.5% 1.8% 2.7% 7.1% 66-86
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 90 72 688 609 73.9% 1.6% 4.4% 79.8% 80-100
Mets 84 78 592 590 22.5% 2.7% 9.8% 35.0% 74-94
Braves 76 86 600 659 2.6% 0.3% 1.9% 4.8% 67-86
Marlins 73 89 605 631 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 63-82
Phillies 61 101 570 756 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0% 52-71
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 100 62 646 511 84.0% 12.6% 2.6% 99.2% 91-110
Pirates 92 70 648 575 14.6% 48.2% 20.5% 83.2% 82-101
Cubs 84 78 628 622 1.4% 10.5% 19.2% 31.1% 74-94
Brewers 73 89 655 700 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 63-82
Reds 71 91 638 712 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 62-81
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 92 70 677 573 63.6% 9.3% 13.4% 86.3% 83-102
Giants 89 73 676 597 34.6% 13.7% 21.6% 70.0% 80-99
Padres 78 84 612 670 1.5% 0.7% 3.7% 5.9% 68-88
Diamondbacks 74 88 646 696 0.3% 0.2% 0.9% 1.4% 64-83
Rockies 70 92 737 832 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 60-80

W: Projected final 2015 wins
L: Projected final 2015 losses
RS: Projected final 2015 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2015 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

These were run with a weighted average of team performance to date and their projections over the rest of the season, adjusted for major roster changes.

CAIRO still doesn’t love the Yankees.  In fact, it only sees them playing about one game over .500 over the rest of the season.  They still have a lot of injury risk in players that are their primary contributors.  But because of where they are right now and the unimpressive competition, that is probably good enough for them to be the strong favorites in the AL East. 

It’s worth noting that the average win total for the AL East leader was 91 wins.

It’s also worth noting that the only two AL teams who appear to have better postseason odds than the Yankees right now are Kansas City and the California Los Angeles Anaheim Angels.

There’s still enough time left in the season for wild swings in fortune.  A bad week by the Yankees and a good week by Toronto can change things considerably, so don’t get too excited just yet.  But things are looking better than they have in a couple of years.

--Posted at 7:07 am by SG / 53 Comments | - (0)




Sunday, July 26, 2015

Yankees (54-42) @ Twins (52-45) , Sunday July 26, 2015 , 2:10 PM

Yankees: Nathan Eovaldi (R) (103.2 IP, 4.43 ERA, 3.52 FIP) vs. Twins: Kyle Gibson (R) (118.2 IP, 3.19 ERA, 3.89 FIP)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.299/.370/.377)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.293/.370/.461)
3. Mark Teixeira (S) DH: (.263/.365/.557)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.252/.324/.457)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.256/.307/.419)
6. Garrett Jones (L) 1B: (.224/.268/.381)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.260/.312/.377)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.244/.294/.328)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.186/.259/.369)

Twins:
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.256/.328/.512)
2. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.254/.308/.443)
3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B: (.277/.340/.395)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.286/.414/.518)
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B: (.255/.315/.459)
6. Eddie Rosario (L) LF: (.281/.304/.416)
7. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS: (.278/.317/.452)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.233/.293/.305)
9. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.263/.329/.382)

Huh, I had no idea Nun-E was hitting so well.  More shockingly, he’s played 112 innings at SS and rates as average by DRS.  Who’d a thunk that?

--Posted at 11:22 am by SG / 73 Comments | - (0)



NY Times: Alex Rodriguez’s Three Home Runs Help Yankees Rally to Stun the Twins

MINNEAPOLIS — If you strung together the three home runs that Alex Rodriguez hit Saturday night, they would total more than 1,300 feet — about as long a shot as the Yankees figured to have of winning Saturday night’s game.

But after the Yankees managed one hit through six innings against the left-hander Tommy Milone and endured another shaky start from C. C. Sabathia, they rallied from a five-run deficit to shock the Minnesota Twins, 8-5.

Rodriguez’s final home run, which tied the score leading off the ninth against Glen Perkins, the Twins’ All-Star closer, might have been predictable, but John Ryan Murphy’s game-winning three-run homer was not. It was his first homer this season.

“It’s maybe our best win of the year,” Manager Joe Girardi said, though a qualifier hardly seemed necessary.

I was at a wedding last night so I didn’t get to see the game.  I check the score around 9 pm and saw the Yankees were trailing 5-1 and figured I wasn’t missing much.  Checked again as we were leaving around midnight and was quite surprised, and I had to stay up to watch the replay.

Rodriguez has exceeded any realistic expectations by leaps and bounds, and I am happy to see it.

--Posted at 7:41 am by SG / 11 Comments | - (0)




Saturday, July 25, 2015

Yankees (53-42) @ Twins (52-44) , Saturday July 25, 2015 , 7:10 PM

Yankees: CC Sabathia (L) (106.1 IP, 5.25 ERA, 4.32 FIP) vs. Twins: Tommy Milone (L) (69.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 4.71 FIP)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.302/.373/.382)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.255/.305/.468)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.271/.371/.508)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.260/.364/.554)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.260/.312/.425)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.259/.312/.378)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.272/.307/.346)
8. Brendan Ryan (R) SS: (.294/.368/.471)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.185/.260/.371)

Twins:
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.255/.325/.513)
2. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.259/.327/.361)
3. Trevor Plouffe (R) 1B: (.259/.319/.466)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.283/.409/.528)
5. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.255/.308/.436)
6. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B: (.251/.285/.396)
7. Shane Robinson (R) LF: (.246/.295/.320)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.232/.290/.305)
9. Danny Santana (S) SS: (.221/.243/.303)

--Posted at 5:07 pm by SG / 40 Comments | - (0)




Friday, July 24, 2015

Yankees (53-41) @ Twins (51-44) , Friday July 24, 2015 , 8:10 PM

Yankees: Michael Pineda (R) (112.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 2.89 FIP) vs. Twins: Phil Hughes (R) (123.2 IP, 4.15 ERA, 4.63 FIP)

Lineups
Yankees
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.308/.382/.390)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.296/.374/.467)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.272/.373/.511)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.253/.360/.552)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.255/.326/.464)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.264/.316/.432)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.259/.313/.379)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.241/.292/.325)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.180/.256/.369)

Twins:
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.256/.326/.510)
2. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.252/.307/.428)
3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B: (.277/.341/.394)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.286/.419/.490)
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B: (.253/.315/.451)
6. Eddie Rosario (L) LF: (.272/.296/.396)
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.257/.329/.361)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.227/.287/.302)
9. Danny Santana (S) SS: (.225/.247/.308)

Hughes-Day!

--Posted at 4:47 pm by SG / 41 Comments | - (0)



NY Post: One big challenge the surging Yankees still must overcome

n this most surprising Yankees season since … 1996? 1965? 1925? … here’s another unanticipated statement:

Now we’ll see how these guys cope with prosperity.

For this was one prosperous group that packed its bags and threw on blazers Thursday afternoon at Yankee Stadium, after dismantling the Orioles by a 9-3 score and completing a three-game sweep of the defending AL East champions. The O’s (46-48), after starting this series four games back, now stand a daunting seven games behind the Yankees (53-41), who attained another high-water mark by climbing 12 games over .500 and maintained their 5 ¹/₂–game lead — seven in the loss column — over Toronto (49-48).

The upcoming Twins series seems like one of those series that is doomed to failure before it starts.

--Posted at 7:02 am by SG / 34 Comments | - (0)




Thursday, July 23, 2015

Orioles (46-47) @ Yankees (52-41) , Thursday July 23, 2015 , 1:05 PM

Orioles: Ubaldo Jimenez (R) (104 IP, 3.29 ERA, 3.50 FIP) vs. Yankees: Masahiro Tanaka (R) (74 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.78 FIP)

Lineups
Orioles
1. Manny Machado (R) 3B: (.298/.368/.528)
2. Jimmy Paredes (S) DH: (.293/.325/.460)
3. Adam Jones (R) CF: (.290/.331/.497)
4. Chris Davis (L) 1B: (.238/.318/.466)
5. Nolan Reimold (R) RF: (.235/.316/.412)
6. Matt Wieters (S) C: (.250/.279/.423)
7. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B: (.269/.300/.582)
8. J.J. Hardy (R) SS: (.231/.267/.332)
9. David Lough (L) LF: (.226/.268/.349)

Yankees:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.298/.377/.361)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.299/.377/.473)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.275/.375/.518)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.256/.361/.557)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.264/.317/.435)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.257/.311/.375)
7. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.234/.286/.320)
8. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.247/.286/.325)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.179/.256/.367)

When did Ubaldo Jimenez become good again?

--Posted at 11:13 am by SG / 66 Comments | - (0)



NY Post: A-Rod, Teixeira power red-hot Yankees past Orioles

The Yankees can’t find a middle infielder that can hit, their starting pitching has been mediocre and they’ve have had two-thirds of their outfield land on the disabled list.
Nevertheless, the Yankees’ stranglehold on the American League East only seems to grow stronger each day, their latest victory a 4-3 win over the Orioles in The Bronx on Wednesday night.

The Yankees entered the All-Star break by winning four out of five and have come out the same way, with eight wins in 10 games overall. They’re now 52-41, a season-high 11 games over .500.

This victory came thanks to homers from Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, who refuse to slow down, and a solid effort from Ivan Nova, still finding his way after Tommy John surgery.

I would have bet a lot of money that we’d never see a headline like that ever again.

--Posted at 8:10 am by SG / 13 Comments | - (0)




Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Orioles (46-46) @ Yankees (51-41) , Wednesday July 22, 2015 , 7:05 PM

Orioles: Kevin Gausman (R) (27 IP, 5.00 ERA, 3.88 FIP) vs. Yankees: Ivan Nova (R) (23.2 IP, 3.42 ERA, 4.58 FIP)

Lineups
Orioles
1. Manny Machado (R) 3B: (.297/.366/.527)
2. Travis Snider (L) LF: (.254/.333/.368)
3. Adam Jones (R) CF: (.294/.335/.503)
4. Matt Wieters (S) DH: (.260/.290/.440)
5. Chris Davis (L) RF: (.238/.319/.460)
6. Jonathan Schoop (R) 2B: (.286/.318/.619)
7. J.J. Hardy (R) SS: (.229/.263/.330)
8. Ryan Flaherty (L) 1B: (.244/.320/.375)
9. Caleb Joseph (R) C: (.242/.315/.389)

Yankees:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.299/.379/.358)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.300/.378/.476)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.275/.376/.511)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.252/.359/.545)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.256/.327/.467)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.262/.313/.430)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.259/.313/.378)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.236/.288/.323)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.181/.255/.369)

Since returning from the DL, LOL-sbury is hitting .205/.244/.308.

I guess $153M doesn’t buy what it used to.

--Posted at 3:10 pm by SG / 66 Comments | - (0)



NJ.com: The Yankees’ decision Carlos Beltran has to just swallow

The Yankees are going to force the lefty-crushing Chris Young into the starting lineup as often as possible — as long as he continues to dominate southpaws, manager Joe Girardi said before Tuesday’s game against the Orioles at Yankee Stadium.

That decision pushed Beltran to the bench. The 38-year-old veteran is used to playing every day — he’s even made a solid, if mostly unconvincing Hall of Fame case over his 18-year career. But as the Yankees fight to keep their American League East lead, Beltran knows it’s no use attempting to battle Girardi.

“It is what it is,” Beltran said. “You have to understand you’re not young. You’re not 22 (years old) anymore.”

Girardi said that while Young — hitting .360 vs. lefties but .178 vs. righties — will keep finding his name in the lineup against left-handers, it won’t come solely at Beltran’s expense.

The Yankees will also give left fielder Brett Gardner and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury — both lefty hitters — off days to fit in Young, Girardi said.

“I’m not saying it’s going to be a platoon,” Giradri said. “That’s not what I’m saying. As I said I’ll give Gardy a day off and Ells a day off.”

Beltran hasn’t been great against LHP, but he hasn’t been great against any pitching really.  .271/.316/.441 vs. RHP compared to .239/.307/.403 vs. LHP in 2015, with an even larger disparity of .254/.331/.446 vs. RHP and .196/.242/.322 vs. LHP in 2014.  When you combine that with the gap in defense between Young and Beltran, Young should start every single game against LHP. 

Sounds like Girardi’s plan to accomplish that is just about perfect.  Mainly sitting Beltran, with a few days off for TPASBG™ and Smellsbury.  Hopefully more for the latter than the former.

--Posted at 9:04 am by SG / 24 Comments | - (0)



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