Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

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Phillies (0-0-1) @ Yankees (0-0-1), Wednesday, March 4, 2015, 1:05 pm
(71 Comments - 3/6/2015 1:17:59 am)

Inaugural Major Injury of the 2015 Season
(22 Comments - 3/4/2015 1:01:19 pm)

NY Post: Calculating win projections, and why Yankees aren’t stacking up
(6 Comments - 3/3/2015 9:24:02 pm)

Yankees (0-0) @ Phillies (0-0), Tuesday, March 3, 2015, 1:05 pm
(54 Comments - 3/3/2015 7:39:25 pm)

NY Times: 2=Jeter, 3=Ruth, 4=Gehrig. ... In the Bronx, Numbers Are Finite.
(48 Comments - 3/3/2015 1:56:12 pm)

Capital New York: The price of Hal Steinbrenner’s expertise
(77 Comments - 3/2/2015 10:36:54 pm)

CBS Sports: Yankees execs reportedly ‘fuming’ at A-Rod for arriving early
(112 Comments - 2/26/2015 4:22:47 pm)

Boston Globe: Red Sox sign Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada, report says
(85 Comments - 2/24/2015 12:29:43 pm) Yankees’ CC Sabathia gained how much weight?
(50 Comments - 2/23/2015 10:00:09 pm)

NYDN: Alex Rodriguez ‘impossible to dislike’ says Yankees radio broadcaster Suzyn Waldman
(40 Comments - 2/21/2015 8:20:48 pm)

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

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Saturday, January 3, 2015

Fox Sports: Yankees finally have prospects to make something happen

The Yankees are unlikely to trade for Cole Hamels. But you know what? At this point, they probably could.

They’ve got Didi Gregorius, a young shortstop the Phillies like. They’ve got catchers, premium young arms, some intriguing bats.

“We’re much deeper now,” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. “We’re much more flexible. We’re younger, more diverse.”

Of course, the Yankees should have taken this approach years ago, but better late than never. For once, they’re actually getting more players back than they’re giving up in certain trades. Their farm system, ranked 18th by Baseball America last season, probably has ascended to the top 15 and could be nearing the top 10.

So, why wouldn’t Cashman use his newfound prospect power to go get Hamels, particularly when the Yankees’ rotation remains full of questions?

For one thing, Cashman would need to replace Gregorius, whom he acquired to be his new shortstop. For another, the GM probably is reluctant to sacrifice the rest of what it would take to get Hamels, particularly at a time when he finally is operating from a position of strength.

Remember, the Yankees under Cashman balked at trading right-hander Phil Hughes, outfielder Melky Cabrera and two others for lefty Johan Santana after the 2007 season. They then signed free-agent lefty CC Sabathia the following winter and went on to win the ’09 World Series.

Hamels or no Hamels, Cashman may not be done maneuvering, even after making six trades between Nov. 12 and Jan. 1. Right-hander Luis Severino, the Yankees’ No. 1 prospect according to Baseball America, is close to untouchable; the Yankees believe that he could make an impact in the majors this season. But, Cashman, speaking generally about future acquisitions, said, “I’m open to anything.”

Open, and capable of making something happen.

Haven’t seen an article like this for a while - a puff piece about the Yankees!

I think Rosenthal is overselling Gregorious and Eovaldi, but he’s right that the Yankees are slowly but surely developing some good young talent (other than relievers, of course, which they always seem to be good at developing), which is good to see.

--Posted at 11:04 pm by Brian Cronin / 39 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Yes Network: New York Yankees deal left-handed pitching prospect Manny Banuelos to Atlanta Braves

The New York Yankees have reportedly started off the New Year with a trade involving one of their long-time top prospects.
On Thursday afternoon, YES Network’s Jack Curry tweeted that the Yankees have traded LHP Manny Banuelos to the Atlanta Braves for a pair of bullpen arms, RHP David Carpenter and LHP Chasen Shreve.

Other sources later confirmed the deal on Twitter, and the team made it official Thursday night.

Banuelos, 24, has long been considered one of the organization’s brightest prospects, from his signing as an international free agent in 2008 through his Tommy John surgery in 2012 and subsequent 2014 return. He split last season, his first action since the surgery, between three levels, going 2-3 with a 4.11 ERA in 76 2/3 innings spanning 26 appearances (25 starts).

Carpenter, 29, was a key piece of the Braves’ bullpen the last two seasons, going 10-5 with a 3.62 ERA and three saves in 121 appearances and striking out 141 in 126 1/3 innings. He will likely slide into the relief role that was vacated when Shawn Kelley was traded to San Diego earlier in the week, and as a first-year arbitration eligible player, Carpenter will be under team control through 2017.

Shreve, 24, made his major-league debut last season, posting a 0.73 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. An 11th-round pick of the Braves in 2010, the lefty had a career 3.22 ERA in the minors (including a 2.67 mark between Double-A and Triple-A last year) and will join a now-loaded group of southpaw relievers in the upper levels of the Yankees system.

While certainly not an awful trade, it sure as heck didn’t make a whole lot of sense, either. The Yankees just dumped Shawn Kelley in part because he didn’t have a role on the 2015 team and they then went out and traded for basically Shawn Kelley (to be fair, Carpenter is under team control through 2017 while Kelley was only under control through this season).

Shreve, though, is at least an intriguing prospect. He pitched really well in the Majors last season.

It’s a fair deal for both teams, so I’m fine with it, but the player with the most upside in the deal is clearly Banuelos, so it seemed odd for the Yankees to deal him to bolster an area that really didn’t need much help bolstering. Unless, of course, they just have lost faith in Banuelos completely, which very well might be the case.

--Posted at 8:47 pm by Brian Cronin / 44 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

NY Times: Yankees Send Shawn Kelley to Padres for Johnny Barbato

In another transaction that adds youth to the team and saves a few dollars, the Yankees traded the veteran right-handed relief pitcher Shawn Kelley to the San Diego Padres for a 22-year-old minor league right-hander, Johnny Barbato, a promising pitcher who missed much of last year with an elbow injury.

Barbato had a 2.87 earned run average and 33 strikeouts in 311/3 relief innings for Class AA San Antonio in 2014, but the Padres shut him down because of a sore elbow, and he may eventually require surgery. The Yankees were aware of the extent of the injury before making the trade.

Barbato could be an interesting prospect if he wasn’t damaged goods.  But he is damaged goods.

Kelley was inconsistent last year, but his peripherals and 2013 performance point to that being a fluke rather than his newly established level.  I guess in the big picture the Yankees got two mostly useful seasons out of Kelley at a minimal cost then flipped him for a potential asset down the road, which should be applauded.

That being said, this move makes the 2015 Yankees worse but I don’t think it’s a big deal.  And Hal gets to save a few more bucks, which is always good to see.

--Posted at 9:05 am by SG / 50 Comments | - (0)

Monday, December 29, 2014

CAIRO 2015 Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2015 Projected MLB Standings

Around this time every year I take a run at some projected standings for the upcoming season.  As the title says, this is extremely early and completely useless so think of it more as a goof than anything too serious.  So using the latest version of CAIRO which I’ll probably update this week and the depth charts from MLB Depth Charts and Rotochamp as a rough gauge of playing time, here’s how the 2014 MLB season looks as of November 20.

Fair warning, despite Hal Steinbrenner’s horseshit claims the Yankees are probably not “championship caliber.”

Date 12/29/2014
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Red Sox 86 76 802 759 25.8% 9.7% 9.0% 44.6% 76-95
Blue Jays 85 77 761 716 24.4% 9.8% 9.3% 43.5% 76-95
Orioles 85 77 723 677 23.6% 9.5% 9.3% 42.5% 75-95
Rays 80 82 630 626 14.6% 6.5% 7.3% 28.3% 71-90
Yankees 79 83 667 672 11.6% 6.2% 6.8% 24.5% 69-89
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 86 76 697 660 32.8% 7.1% 6.6% 46.5% 76-96
Indians 85 77 726 691 29.5% 7.2% 7.5% 44.2% 75-95
White Sox 80 82 716 724 17.5% 5.4% 5.9% 28.9% 71-90
Royals 80 82 647 664 16.1% 4.8% 5.8% 26.8% 70-89
Twins 69 93 666 773 4.0% 1.0% 1.9% 7.0% 59-79
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Mariners 90 72 660 593 40.4% 10.3% 8.6% 59.4% 80-99
Angels 87 75 674 630 31.9% 10.4% 8.6% 50.9% 78-97
Athletics 84 78 667 655 21.2% 8.8% 8.5% 38.5% 74-93
Rangers 72 90 726 813 4.5% 2.2% 3.2% 9.9% 62-81
Astros 66 96 673 811 2.1% 0.9% 1.8% 4.7% 57-76
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 97 65 700 568 63.9% 8.5% 6.2% 78.7% 87-106
Marlins 83 79 645 630 16.0% 8.0% 9.2% 33.2% 73-93
Mets 82 80 625 604 13.9% 7.7% 8.6% 30.2% 72-92
Braves 74 88 589 647 4.6% 2.7% 4.2% 11.5% 64-83
Phillies 66 96 571 696 1.6% 0.7% 1.5% 3.8% 56-76
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 91 71 649 564 41.5% 9.8% 9.2% 60.5% 81-101
Pirates 89 73 649 589 32.3% 9.8% 10.3% 52.4% 79-98
Brewers 81 81 671 659 14.0% 6.6% 8.2% 28.8% 72-91
Cubs 76 86 651 680 7.2% 3.6% 5.5% 16.3% 66-86
Reds 73 89 617 678 4.9% 2.5% 4.0% 11.4% 63-83
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 96 66 694 575 52.8% 13.7% 8.3% 74.8% 86-106
Giants 91 71 638 557 34.4% 16.3% 11.1% 61.8% 82-101
Padres 80 82 610 618 8.9% 6.9% 8.4% 24.2% 70-89
Rockies 72 90 741 831 3.1% 2.3% 3.8% 9.1% 62-81
Diamondbacks 66 96 562 681 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% 3.3% 56-75

W: Projected final 2015 wins
L: Projected final 2015 losses
RS: Projected final 2015 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2015 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

I guess I’m a bit surprised to see the Rays ahead of the Yankees but nothing else in the East stands out.  Then again, it’s not like one game is that meaningful given the margin of error inherent in an exercise like this.

Just eyeballing the rest of the majors, nothing really stands out although I’m guessing the Dodgers and Nationals projections are too high and I need to look at why that is.

Anyway, the Yankees aren’t going to project as much better than .500, even if they add Max Scherzer.  But their division isn’t great so they should have chance at the postseason, I guess.

Happy Hal-idays!

--Posted at 10:15 am by SG / 84 Comments | - (0)

Friday, December 26, 2014

ESPN: Hiroki Kuroda to return to Japan

Hiroki Kuroda is returning to Japan to pitch for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, an official with knowledge of the move told, confirming Japanese media reports.

The 39-year-old right-hander went 11-9 with a 3.71 ERA in 32 starts last season, his third with the New York Yankees.

Kuroda signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers before the 2008 season after an 11-year career in Japan.

The Yankees believe they are set to begin the 2015 season with Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Capuano in the rotation, a source told Plus, they have Ivan Nova due to return from Tommy John surgery in late May.

It was very much an expected move, so I’m not, like, devastated or anything like that. But boy, Cashman really needs to pick up another starter. “The Yankees believe they are set” sounds like “Bubba Crosby will be our starting center fielder.”

Thanks for three great seasons, Kuroda!

--Posted at 9:31 pm by Brian Cronin / 17 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, December 25, 2014

NYDN: David Phelps: Alex Rodriguez has friends on Yankees

Phelps, 28, credited A-Rod with helping him make the transition to the big leagues back in 2012, going so far as to say, “If it wasn’t for him, I wouldn’t be where I am today. He’s an incredible teammate who went out of his way early in my career to help me out. My first couple outings, I’d be in the dugout or in the clubhouse and he would come over and pick my brain; things like, ‘Why did you throw this pitch in this situation?’ ” Phelps said.

“Even when we were rehabbing in Trenton a couple years ago, he pulled me over and we talked about the business side of the game, protecting players’ rights, that kind of stuff. He’s incredibly intelligent on the field and with the business side of baseball. He has a lot to offer younger players.”

But, but teh STERIODS???!

Anyway, happy holidays or at least happy day off to all.

--Posted at 10:00 am by SG / 21 Comments | - (0)

Monday, December 22, 2014 Cashman pushes Yankees forward with youth movement

The Yankees are prepared to open the 2015 season with a 24-year-old shortstop and a 23-year-old second baseman. Three of their projected five starting pitchers could be 26 or younger. Out in the bullpen, Shawn Kelley might be the only reliever who has celebrated a 30th birthday.

Yes, friends, the Yankees are getting younger. Never saw that coming, did you? This shift toward more youth is one of the interesting storylines of general manager Brian Cashman’s offseason.

He remains focused on keeping the Yankees competitive. At the same time, he has started something of a transition at a time when his farm system appears to be stronger than it has been in years.

The Yankees still won’t qualify as a young team. They’ll still be counting on some older players, but not nearly as many as in recent years when Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte were part of the core.

I applaud the Yankees trying to get younger, but I am just not that comfortable that the young players they’ve brought in are particularly good.  But if they were definitely good, they wouldn’t have come at the price they did.

It kind of happened suddenly, which is why my initial reaction to the Yankees trading Martin Prado and David Phelps for Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Jones was negative.  Upon a bit more thought, if the Yankees do actually now have a plan that doesn’t involve signing a bunch of washed up players while hoping for a dead-cat bounce, I embrace it.

It means they will probably not be very good this year, but they haven’t been very good for the last two seasons either.  But they should at least be a bit more interesting to watch than they have been over the last two seasons.

--Posted at 9:05 am by SG / 103 Comments | - (0)

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