Thursday, July 30, 2015
The Mariners announced today that they have traded outfielder Dustin Ackley to the Yankees in exchange for outfield prospect Ramon Flores and right-hander Jose Ramirez.
Ackley, now 27 years old, came to the Mariners with a great deal of fanfare after being selected with the second overall pick in the 2009 draft. Selected one spot after Stephen Strasburg, Ackley was hailed as the best college bat in the draft on the strength of his play at UNC. Baseball America rated him as the No. 11 prospect prior to the 2010 season and No. 12 prior to the 2011 season, but Ackley’s excellent minor league play — .303/.401/.472 in 143 Triple-A games — never carried over to the Majors with any sort of consistency.
WTF? I’d rather have either of Flores or Ramirez than Ackley. At 27, he’s not likely to end up being any better than he is now, which isn’t very good, and he has played one game at 2B over the last two seasons, although I guess the Mariners signed some 2B who is monopolizing the playing time there.
I guess this frees up a valuable 40 man roster spot. So yay, roster spot.
The Yankees will place right-hander Michael Pineda on the disabled list with a Grade 1 right forearm strain, according to the New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link). The timetable for his return remains unclear, though Sherman says the Yankees do expect Pineda to pitch again in 2015. The injury is the same as the one suffered by Andrew Miller earlier this year, Sherman adds. Miller missed about a month with his forearm strain, though the recovery process for a reliever and for a starting pitcher will probably vary, and Pineda may need more time to return to his previous per-start workload after sitting out.
An injury to Pineda further taxes a Yankees rotation that already contained some question marks. CC Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka, Ivan Nova and Nathan Eovaldi should continue to hold down spots, and the team has used right-hander Bryan Mitchell in the rotation this season as well. There figures to be a good deal of speculation surrounding top prospect Luis Severino as well, though despite a 2.45 ERA this season, he’s already just 14 innings shy of his career-high 113 1/3. Certainly he’ll be expected to exceed that number in 2015 — the question is just to what extent he’ll be able to surpass that mark.
Hmm, can they un-DFA Chris Capuano?
Conspicuously absent from this percolating market has been the Yankees.
Whether they are lurking, or just standing on the sidelines, may not be known until the deadline passes Friday. But the decision Wednesday by the Detroit Tigers to listen to offers for the star pitcher David Price would seem to get the attention of anyone with World Series aspirations.
“Oh, I think he’s going to make a difference wherever he goes,” Yankees Manager Joe Girardi said.
Unfortunately, the Blue Jays did not remain quiet, and have acquired Price from the Tigers. Price isn’t going too make up a seven game gap on his own over what’s left in the season, but the Yankees do face Toronto in four more series (13 games) over the rest of the season, and Price may get four starts against them.
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
1. Delino DeShields (R) CF: (.272/.364/.398)
2. Rougned Odor (L) 2B: (.260/.327/.466)
3. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.333/.403/.507)
4. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.252/.293/.380)
5. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.285/.334/.516)
6. Josh Hamilton (L) LF: (.236/.292/.416)
7. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.251/.303/.330)
8. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.231/.311/.404)
9. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.223/.313/.423)
The New York Yankees trailed 5-0 through one inning Tuesday evening. For many teams this season, it would be a tall order to simply come back and tie the game before it’s concluded. For the Bronx Bombers, well, they did this in the second inning:
Pretty wild game.
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
1. Delino DeShields (R) CF: (.275/.362/.402)
2. Rougned Odor (L) 2B: (.265/.332/.474)
3. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.256/.296/.385)
4. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.336/.405/.511)
5. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.251/.303/.331)
6. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.287/.334/.520)
7. Ryan Rua (R) LF: (.194/.217/.403)
8. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.230/.309/.402)
9. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.225/.313/.427)
This is one of those moments when it does not matter what Brian Cashman says, which is that he is more likely not to make a trade than make one between now and Friday’s non-waiver deadline.
It does not matter that his history is generally to do deals that augment the roster at this time of year rather than scream blockbuster.
His fellow executives simply ignore the words and the deeds. They see the Yankees in first place with a strong chance to win the division. They see a power-bat, power-bullpen arm combo that could do October damage. Thus, rival executives simply do not believe this deadline is coming and going without Cashman improving his rotation.
One top AL executive said definitively what many suggested: “There is no question the Yankees are getting a pitcher.”
The Yankees definitely could use a starting pitcher. I just fear the cost of getting one.
Monday, July 27, 2015
1. Brett Gardner (L) CF: (.295/.373/.464)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.257/.310/.473)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.277/.375/.539)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.259/.363/.550)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.250/.326/.454)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.256/.306/.420)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.263/.313/.387)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.242/.291/.325)
9. Brendan Ryan (R) 2B: (.263/.333/.421)
1. Rougned Odor (L) 2B: (.271/.339/.486)
2. Shin-Soo Choo (L) RF: (.232/.311/.407)
3. Prince Fielder (L) DH: (.337/.406/.514)
4. Mitch Moreland (L) 1B: (.285/.329/.516)
5. Adrian Beltre (R) 3B: (.259/.300/.390)
6. Josh Hamilton (L) LF: (.233/.283/.419)
7. Elvis Andrus (R) SS: (.250/.301/.328)
8. Leonys Martin (L) CF: (.218/.263/.316)
9. Robinson Chirinos (R) C: (.229/.317/.433)
CAIRO’s updated 2015 Final Projected Standings and Postseason Odds as of July 27
In the last thread, bigknowz asked:
SG, any chance you can run a simulation on final standings? Seems like the Yanks are in really good shape.
So I ran these overnight, and he’s right. The Yankees are in good shape.
W: Projected final 2015 wins
L: Projected final 2015 losses
RS: Projected final 2015 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2015 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation
These were run with a weighted average of team performance to date and their projections over the rest of the season, adjusted for major roster changes.
CAIRO still doesn’t love the Yankees. In fact, it only sees them playing about one game over .500 over the rest of the season. They still have a lot of injury risk in players that are their primary contributors. But because of where they are right now and the unimpressive competition, that is probably good enough for them to be the strong favorites in the AL East.
It’s worth noting that the average win total for the AL East leader was 91 wins.
It’s also worth noting that the only two AL teams who appear to have better postseason odds than the Yankees right now are Kansas City and the California Los Angeles Anaheim Angels.
There’s still enough time left in the season for wild swings in fortune. A bad week by the Yankees and a good week by Toronto can change things considerably, so don’t get too excited just yet. But things are looking better than they have in a couple of years.
Sunday, July 26, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.299/.370/.377)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.293/.370/.461)
3. Mark Teixeira (S) DH: (.263/.365/.557)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.252/.324/.457)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.256/.307/.419)
6. Garrett Jones (L) 1B: (.224/.268/.381)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.260/.312/.377)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.244/.294/.328)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.186/.259/.369)
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.256/.328/.512)
2. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.254/.308/.443)
3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B: (.277/.340/.395)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.286/.414/.518)
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B: (.255/.315/.459)
6. Eddie Rosario (L) LF: (.281/.304/.416)
7. Eduardo Nunez (R) SS: (.278/.317/.452)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.233/.293/.305)
9. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.263/.329/.382)
Huh, I had no idea Nun-E was hitting so well. More shockingly, he’s played 112 innings at SS and rates as average by DRS. Who’d a thunk that?
MINNEAPOLIS — If you strung together the three home runs that Alex Rodriguez hit Saturday night, they would total more than 1,300 feet — about as long a shot as the Yankees figured to have of winning Saturday night’s game.
But after the Yankees managed one hit through six innings against the left-hander Tommy Milone and endured another shaky start from C. C. Sabathia, they rallied from a five-run deficit to shock the Minnesota Twins, 8-5.
Rodriguez’s final home run, which tied the score leading off the ninth against Glen Perkins, the Twins’ All-Star closer, might have been predictable, but John Ryan Murphy’s game-winning three-run homer was not. It was his first homer this season.
“It’s maybe our best win of the year,” Manager Joe Girardi said, though a qualifier hardly seemed necessary.
I was at a wedding last night so I didn’t get to see the game. I check the score around 9 pm and saw the Yankees were trailing 5-1 and figured I wasn’t missing much. Checked again as we were leaving around midnight and was quite surprised, and I had to stay up to watch the replay.
Rodriguez has exceeded any realistic expectations by leaps and bounds, and I am happy to see it.
Saturday, July 25, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.302/.373/.382)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.255/.305/.468)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.271/.371/.508)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.260/.364/.554)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.260/.312/.425)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.259/.312/.378)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.272/.307/.346)
8. Brendan Ryan (R) SS: (.294/.368/.471)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.185/.260/.371)
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.255/.325/.513)
2. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.259/.327/.361)
3. Trevor Plouffe (R) 1B: (.259/.319/.466)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.283/.409/.528)
5. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.255/.308/.436)
6. Eduardo Escobar (S) 3B: (.251/.285/.396)
7. Shane Robinson (R) LF: (.246/.295/.320)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.232/.290/.305)
9. Danny Santana (S) SS: (.221/.243/.303)
Friday, July 24, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.308/.382/.390)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.296/.374/.467)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.272/.373/.511)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.253/.360/.552)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.255/.326/.464)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.264/.316/.432)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.259/.313/.379)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.241/.292/.325)
9. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.180/.256/.369)
1. Brian Dozier (R) 2B: (.256/.326/.510)
2. Torii Hunter (R) RF: (.252/.307/.428)
3. Joe Mauer (L) 1B: (.277/.341/.394)
4. Miguel Sano (R) DH: (.286/.419/.490)
5. Trevor Plouffe (R) 3B: (.253/.315/.451)
6. Eddie Rosario (L) LF: (.272/.296/.396)
7. Aaron Hicks (S) CF: (.257/.329/.361)
8. Kurt Suzuki (R) C: (.227/.287/.302)
9. Danny Santana (S) SS: (.225/.247/.308)
n this most surprising Yankees season since … 1996? 1965? 1925? … here’s another unanticipated statement:
Now we’ll see how these guys cope with prosperity.
For this was one prosperous group that packed its bags and threw on blazers Thursday afternoon at Yankee Stadium, after dismantling the Orioles by a 9-3 score and completing a three-game sweep of the defending AL East champions. The O’s (46-48), after starting this series four games back, now stand a daunting seven games behind the Yankees (53-41), who attained another high-water mark by climbing 12 games over .500 and maintained their 5 ¹/₂–game lead — seven in the loss column — over Toronto (49-48).
The upcoming Twins series seems like one of those series that is doomed to failure before it starts.