Tuesday, May 5, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.347/.426/.406)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.312/.404/.442)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.229/.347/.494)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.202/.327/.583)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.247/.302/.416)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.203/.247/.329)
7. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.149/.235/.351)
8. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.213/.277/.240)
9. Gregorio Petit (R) 3B: (.194/.257/.290)
1. Devon Travis (R) 2B: (.315/.388/.609)
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B: (.314/.387/.552)
3. Russell Martin (R) C: (.237/.372/.500)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) DH: (.221/.272/.375)
5. Justin Smoak (S) 1B: (.237/.370/.447)
6. Kevin Pillar (R) CF: (.276/.303/.410)
7. Chris Colabello (R) LF: (—-/—-/—-)
8. Ryan Goins (L) SS: (.256/.304/.326)
9. Ezequiel Carrera (L) RF: (.571/.571/.571)
An Edwin Encarnacion double off Dellin Betances tied the score, and the Blue Jays pushed across two more runs as the Yankees’ Chase Headley made a diving stop of a Russell Martin grounder down the third-base line but first baseman Garrett Jones could not corral Headley’s one-hop throw.
“In the moment, you go from extremely fired up to dejected a little bit,” Headley said. “You think you make a great play and you’re going to get out of a big spot; then it doesn’t go your way.”
Jones said, “It’s a pick I should have made, and it’s upsetting that I didn’t.”
At least Jones makes up for his defense with his bat, right?
Monday, May 4, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.351/.432/.402)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.320/.400/.453)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.241/.362/.519)
4. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.197/.244/.316)
5. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.155/.244/.366)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.242/.294/.400)
7. Garrett Jones (L) 1B: (.167/.194/.267)
8. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.263/.375/.421)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.222/.288/.250)
1. Devon Travis (R) 2B: (.318/.394/.625)
2. Josh Donaldson (R) 3B: (.307/.383/.545)
3. Jose Bautista (R) DH: (.203/.341/.486)
4. Edwin Encarnacion (R) 1B: (.220/.273/.370)
5. Kevin Pillar (R) CF: (.277/.305/.416)
6. Josh Thole (L) C: (.000/.000/.000)
7. Danny Valencia (R) LF: (.379/.400/.517)
8. Ryan Goins (L) SS: (.250/.302/.325)
9. Ezequiel Carrera (L) RF: (.600/.600/.600)
A Look at the 2015 Yankees Component Stats through April 3
So yeah, the Yankees have played far better than I expected them to. And I am still not sold, even though it’s been enjoyable to watch them so far.
There are few different ways that a team’s actual results could be skewed by that dreaded sabermetric concept of luck. There’s the most basic statistical version of luck in baseball, where a team’s run differential does not support their actual record. In the case of the Yankees to this point their 124 runs scored and 93 runs allowed has given them a Pythagenpat record of 16-9 that is identical to their actual record of 16-9. So by that measure, they have not been luck.
A more advanced version of luck would take a look at the players’ individual performances compared to their projections and trying to determine which performances are fluky and/or unsustainable. If the team has more players playing over their heads than players who are not, you’d expect them to play worse going forward. That’s worth looking at at some point, but I think a month into the season is too soon to try and make much use of that.
For a happy medium, we can look at the team’s component stats on offense and on defense and see if the offensive events to this point line up with the actual results on the field. To do this, I’ll use my favorite basic run estimator, linear weights batting runs. We can use the team’s offensive stats, and the offensive stats of the opposing batters to calculate a revised context-neutral version of their runs scored and runs allowed which will smooth out some of the anomalies that can occur over a set of games that may give a misleading picture of how good or bad a team actually is.
|C||John Ryan Murphy||24||19||4||5||3||0||0||1||0||0||4||7||0||0||.263||.375||.421||.796||123||3|
|Branden Pinder (40-man)||2||9||7||0||2||0||1||0||0||0||2||0||1||0||.286||.444||.571||1.016||.333||2|
|Masahiro Tanaka (15-day dl)||22.1||90||80||10||14||5||0||2||1||0||7||0||24||0||.175||.236||.313||.548||.214||6|
|Matt Tracy (40-man)*||2||11||9||3||2||1||0||0||1||0||2||0||1||0||.222||.364||.333||.697||.250||2|
In the Yankees’ case, they have 121 linear weights batting runs compared to their actual 124 batting runs, and their pitchers have allowed opposing hitters 87 batting runs instead of the 93 actual runs they have scored.
So no, thus far the Yankees’ performance is not out of line with what has happened on the field. Whether they can continue to do what they’ve done so far is a different question, for another day.
BOSTON—The red-hot Yankees completed a three-game sweep of the Red Sox by hanging on for an 8-5 victory on Sunday night at Fenway Park. It marked New York’s first sweep of three games or more in Boston since a five-game sweep from Aug. 18-21, 2006.
“That’s pretty cool. It’s obviously a tough place for us to play,” said Yankees outfielder Brett Gardner. “They’ve always got a good team, they always play us tough, especially in their home park. They’ve got a really good lineup, really good offensive team. It’s tough to hold them down. We were able to get some runs early, and it ended up being just enough.”
While the Red Sox (12-13) fell below .500 for the first time this season, the American League East-leading Yankees (16-9) reeled off their 10th win in the last 12 games.
It’s all luck, I tell you.
Sunday, May 3, 2015
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.323/.400/.376)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.319/.405/.420)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.243/.371/.541)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.200/.323/.563)
5. Brian McCann (L) C: (.250/.309/.417)
6. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.181/.231/.292)
7. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.231/.278/.396)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.167/.260/.394)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.221/.280/.250)
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF: (.221/.296/.337)
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B: (.290/.374/.495)
3. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.250/.340/.438)
4. Hanley Ramirez (R) LF: (.281/.333/.618)
5. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B: (.329/.406/.447)
6. Mike Napoli (R) 1B: (.160/.267/.253)
7. Daniel Nava (S) RF: (.154/.209/.179)
8. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.263/.330/.350)
9. Blake Swihart (S) C: (.333/.500/.333)
Saturday, May 2, 2015
BOSTON—Brett Gardner smacked a go-ahead two-run single to left in the top of the fifth, and the Yankees preserved the lead from there, taking a 4-2 victory over Wade Miley and the Red Sox on Saturday afternoon at Fenway Park. Boston will try to avoid a sweep in Sunday’s finale of the three-game rivalry series.
If not for TPBG™, the Yankees lose this game. Thankfully TPBG™ was there to pick up the slack when other players failed to get the job done.
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF: (.220/.298/.330)
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B: (.292/.379/.472)
3. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.237/.333/.434)
4. Hanley Ramirez (R) LF: (.279/.326/.628)
5. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B: (.321/.402/.444)
6. Mike Napoli (R) 1B: (.169/.280/.268)
7. Brock Holt (L) RF: (.378/.462/.489)
8. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.276/.345/.368)
9. Blake Swihart (S) C: (—-/—-/—-)
Friday, May 1, 2015
In a tie game in the eighth, Alex Rodriguez drilled a solo shot to left field to tie Willie Mays and lift the Yankees over the Red Sox at Fenway.
That was pretty damn sweet.
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.321/.406/.381)
2. Brett Gardner (L) LF: (.311/.400/.410)
3. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.216/.322/.608)
4. Brian McCann (L) C: (.266/.319/.453)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.162/.216/.265)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.232/.284/.390)
7. Garrett Jones (L) DH: (.185/.214/.296)
8. Stephen Drew (L) 2B: (.177/.274/.419)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.206/.261/.238)
1. Mookie Betts (R) CF: (.230/.313/.345)
2. Dustin Pedroia (R) 2B: (.291/.367/.477)
3. David Ortiz (L) DH: (.236/.337/.444)
4. Hanley Ramirez (R) LF: (.293/.341/.659)
5. Mike Napoli (R) 1B: (.162/.269/.250)
6. Pablo Sandoval (S) 3B: (.312/.398/.442)
7. Allen Craig (R) RF: (.118/.189/.118)
8. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS: (.274/.338/.356)
9. Ryan Hanigan (R) C: (.216/.349/.294)
Can CC make it 0-5? Considering how he’s pitched in Boston even when he was good (5.30 career ERA in Fenway) combined with the fact that he’s no longer good, I like his chances.
After finally pitching in back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday, Bailey was taken off the High-A Tampa roster and reassigned to extended spring training. The move was made because of a shoulder issue, and an MRI revealed a strain. Bailey has been shut down for now, and Cashman said he didn’t have a clear timetable for when Bailey will be back on the mound.
Who saw that coming?
Thursday, April 30, 2015
As the education of Didi Gregorius continues, the Yankees called on Alex Rodriguez to work with the young shortstop, which naturally focused more attention on the question of why Gregorius hasn’t lived up to his glowing reputation as a defensive whiz.
Is it merely that Gregorius has been a bit overwhelmed by the adjustment to playing on the big New York stage as a Yankee, replacing a legend in Derek Jeter?
Or is there something more troubling about what at times has looked like a lack of baseball instincts?
I take it Satan was unavailable?
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
NEW YORK—James Loney drove home Steven Souza Jr. with the go-ahead run in the top of the 13th inning, lifting the Rays to a 3-2 victory over the Yankees on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium to avert a series sweep.
Loney’s hit was a ground-ball single to right field off left-hander Chasen Shreve, who was the sixth Bombers reliever of the afternoon. Second baseman Stephen Drew chased the ball down but threw home too late to nab Souza Jr., and Tampa Bay held on to defeat the Yankees for the first time in six tries this season.
Chase Headley and Chris Young homered to account for the output against Rays left-hander Drew Smyly, who struck out 10 over six strong innings. Rays hurlers struck out 16 Yankees in all, a season high for both clubs. Brandon Gomes picked up the victory with two innings of scoreless relief and Ernesto Frieri worked the 13th for his second save.
1. David DeJesus (L) DH: (.302/.375/.419)
2. Steven Souza Jr. (R) RF: (.254/.346/.465)
3. Asdrubal Cabrera (S) SS: (.225/.271/.313)
4. Evan Longoria (R) 3B: (.300/.398/.443)
5. James Loney (L) 1B: (.333/.400/.611)
6. Logan Forsythe (R) 2B: (.277/.373/.462)
7. Kevin Kiermaier (L) CF: (.293/.317/.534)
8. Brandon Guyer (R) LF: (.227/.352/.386)
9. Bobby Wilson (R) C: (.188/.316/.188)
1. Jacoby Ellsbury (L) CF: (.308/.400/.372)
2. Chris Young (R) LF: (.291/.350/.600)
3. Alex Rodriguez (R) DH: (.254/.397/.556)
4. Mark Teixeira (S) 1B: (.232/.341/.652)
5. Carlos Beltran (S) RF: (.159/.217/.270)
6. Chase Headley (S) 3B: (.234/.289/.364)
7. John Ryan Murphy (R) C: (.313/.400/.500)
8. Gregorio Petit (R) 2B: (.208/.286/.333)
9. Didi Gregorius (L) SS: (.224/.281/.259)
How have the first three weeks of the baseball season changed team’s final outlooks?
As we began discussing in a thread yesterday, we can’t read too much into how teams have performed to this point when trying to assess how good they actually are. That doesn’t mean that the games that have been played to this point are not significant, because they are. Games that are already played are banked, and the results of those games cannot be taken away. They can also have some impact on a team’s estimated talent level, although the effect on that tends to be way overstated due to the small sample size.
Think of a simple example. If you had a team that is essentially a .500 team, and they won their first 20 games without changing the fact that they were a .500 team, if they split the remaining 142 games they’d end the year with a record of 91-71. It’s more likely that this team is an 81 win team that got lucky than an actual 91 win team. But they did win 91 games.
So anyway, taking my CAIRO preseason projections, adding in the results of the games through last night, and modifying team projections slightly going forward based on YTD performance and any roster changes that were not captured in the preseason projections, here is how team outlooks have changed sorted in descending order by wins.
diffW: Change in final 2015 projected wins from pre-season CAIRO projections.
diffDiv: Change in final 2015 projected division win percentage from pre-season CAIRO projections.
DiffPS: Change in final 2015 projected post-season qualifying percentage from pre-season CAIRO projections (division titles plus either of the two wild cards).
The Mets’ hot start combined with the Nationals’ cold one has probably been the most significant at the top of any specific division. The Royals have improved their projected win total by more than any other team, but unfortunately for them Detroit has improved as well. And while I still remain skeptical about how good the Yankees really are, the 4.5 games they’ve picked up in a division that had very little spread heading into the season are pretty important. The Indians were a pretty trendy dark-horse in the AL Central and have dug themselves a bit of a hole, and the Brewers have really hurt themselves in the early going.
This can and will change quite a bit as the season moves forward, so think of it as more of a fun little checkpoint than anything.
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
NEW YORK—Brian McCann doubled twice and drove in three runs to help the Yankees continue their winning ways, powering a 4-2 victory over the Rays on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.
The Bombers’ backstop slugged a run-scoring double as part of a two-run first inning, then connected for a two-run double in the fifth as he continued to pound Tampa Bay starter Jake Odorizzi. The Yankees have won 10 of their last 12 games, and all five meetings with the Rays.
Yankees spot starter Chase Whitley picked up the victory in his first start of the season, holding the Rays to one run and six hits over five innings. Tampa Bay’s Asdrubal Cabrera had a run-scoring double in the third and Logan Forsythe legged out an RBI triple in the sixth facing Chasen Shreve. Yanks righty Chris Martin worked a scoreless ninth for his first career save.
The win was overshadowed by the news that Masahiro Tanaka is heading to the disabled list with wrist tendinitis and a forearm strain. It’s not good news obviously, although it doesn’t necessarily mean his season is over yet either.