Replacement Level Yankees Weblog
The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:

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Cubs (4-8) @ The Championship Caliber Yankees (7-6), Wednesday, April 16, 2014, Double Header
(80 Comments - 4/16/2014 2:56:30 pm)

Lohud: Murphy and Sizemore called up; Cervelli placed on 60-day
(28 Comments - 4/16/2014 2:40:14 pm)

NY Post: Why the Yankees are using the shift more than ever
(13 Comments - 4/16/2014 12:11:02 pm)

NY Post: Cervelli going to DL as Yankees continue to jumble roster
(23 Comments - 4/15/2014 7:29:53 pm) Nova, Beltran lead Yanks to series win over Red Sox
(78 Comments - 4/15/2014 9:44:48 am)

Q&A with the Replacement Level Red Sox Blog, Part 2
(4 Comments - 4/14/2014 10:52:43 am)

Red Sox (5-7) @ The Championship Caliber Yankees (6-6), Sunday, April 13, 2014, 8:05pm
(217 Comments - 4/13/2014 11:21:36 pm) Comforts of homers: McCann powers win over Sox
(28 Comments - 4/13/2014 6:58:38 pm)

Red Sox (5-6) @ The Championship Caliber Yankees (5-6), Saturday, April 12, 1:05pm
(83 Comments - 4/13/2014 3:40:06 pm)

Red Sox (4-6) @ Yankees (5-5),Friday, April 11, 2014, 7:05pm
(85 Comments - 4/11/2014 11:26:02 pm)

Look what people have to say about the RLYW!

CAIRO just takes the Marcels and changes the underlying assumptions and components in a bunch of ways that make the Yankees look better.

Wow, two stupid posts in one day. I think you’ve reached your yearly quota.

I don’t know if any of you current posters were around for that, but if so, I just can’t understand how you can call yourselves Yankee fans. Pathetic quitters is what you sounded like. Of the lame posts I could stand to read, the only person who had any confidence in the Yankees at that point was a (yeesh) Red Sox fan.
Jeter is King

Quite the attitude you have SG. Maybe you should shitcan this blog and join Steve at WasWatching? Or follow some other stupid team that has made the PS 15 of the last 17 years. Jeez… and some people think Yankee fans are entitled.

This site is best viewed with a monitor.

Disclaimer: If you think this is the official website of the New York Yankees, you're an idiot. Go away.

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Yankees (0-1) @ Astros (1-0),Wednesday, April 2, 2014, 8:10pm

NYY: Hiroki Kuroda (#18, 39, RHP, 0-0, undef) vs.  HOU: Jarred Cosart (#48, 24, RHP, 0-0, undef)

Jacoby Ellsbury(L), CF: .000/.200/.000
Derek Jeter(R), SS: .333/.500/.333
Carlos Beltran(S), RF: .250/.250/.250
Brian McCann(L), C: .250/.250/.250
Mark Teixeira(S), 1B: .667/.750/.667
Alfonso Soriano(R), DH: .000/.000/.000
Brett Gardner(L), LF: .000/.250/.000
Brian Roberts(S), 2B: .000/.250/.000
Kelly Johnson(L), 3B: .250/.250/.500

Dexter Fowler(S), CF: .500/.500/1.000
Robbie Grossman(S), LF: .000/.000/.000
Jason Castro(L), C: .250/.250/.250
Jose Altuve(R), 2B: .500/.500/.500
Chris Carter(R), DH: .250/.250/.250
Mark Krauss(L), 1B:—-/—-/—-
Matt Dominguez(R), 3B: .000/.000/.000
Alex Presley(L), RF:—-/—-/—-
Jonathan Villar(S), SS: .333/.333/.333

Apparently $22M+ a year buys you a .200 OBP these days…

If the Yankees lose tonight, they will not finish above .500 this year.

--Posted at 3:52 pm by SG / 107 Comments | - (0)

NYDN: On Jeter’s last Opening Day, Yankees fall to Astros and Captain hit by pitch

HOUSTON — At least Derek Jeter never has to experience one of CC Sabathia’s Opening Day starts again.

Sabathia continued his trend of sloppy season debuts, getting rocked in the first two innings as the Astros cruised to a 6-2 win over the Yankees to begin the Captain’s final season Tuesday night.

“It got out of hand early,” Sabathia said. “I’ve got 34 more starts left. I’m definitely not going to pitch like I did tonight in the first two innings. I know I can pitch and I know I can get guys out. I feel great. I’m not going to beat myself up about this.”

Houston may be the worst team in baseball, again.  So any game you lose to them is tough.  Hopefully the Yankees can take the next two and put this one behind them.

--Posted at 8:36 am by SG / 37 Comments | - (0)

Tuesday, April 1, 2014 Season’s first inning sets wrong tone

CC Sabathia settled after Houston’s four-run first, but the damage was done on Opening Day.

There’s a pretty good chance that Sabathia may be the worst of the Yankees five starters at this point, but I hope he can turn things around.

The good news is that this is just one of 162 games that the Yankees will play this year.  The bad news is that we have to watch them as much as 161 more times.

There were some encouraging signs, like Dellin Betances looking nasty and Mark Teixeira taking some decent swings from the left side, and even beating the shift once.


--Posted at 9:21 pm by SG / 14 Comments | - (0)

Yankees () @ Astros (), 7:10pm, Tuesday, April 1, 2014

NYY: CC Sabathia (#52, 33, LHP, 0-0, undef) vs. HOU: Scott Feldman (#46, 31, RHP, 0-0, undef)

Jacoby Ellsbury , CF
Derek Jeter , SS
Carlos Beltran , RF
Brian McCann , C
Mark Teixeira , 1B
Alfonso Soriano , DH
Brett Gardner , LF
Brian Roberts , 2B
Kelly Johnson , 3B

Dexter Fowler , CF
Robbie Grossman , LF
Jose Altuve , 2B
Jason Castro , C
Jesus Guzman , 1B
Chris Carter , DH
Matt Dominguez , 3B
L.J. Hoes , RF
Jonathan Villar , SS

Still waiting to hear about the 40 man roster move the Yankees will be making to get Yangervis Solarte onto the roster.

Update: Nun-E has been DFA.  I’m guessing someone will claim, maybe these very Astros.

I just don’t have my normal excitement level about this Opening Day.  Maybe I’ll feel differently when I get used to all the new faces.  Go people wearing Yankee uniforms!

--Posted at 2:57 pm by SG / 158 Comments | - (0)

Monday, March 31, 2014

Lohud: Opening Day lineup set

Jacoby Ellsbury CF
Derek Jeter SS
Carlos Beltran RF
Brian McCann C
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alfonso Soriano DH
Brett Gardner LF
Brian Roberts 2B
Kelly Johnson 3B

LHP CC Sabathia

Seeing it in front of me now, I have to say I am not all that impressed.

--Posted at 8:51 pm by SG / 41 Comments | - (0)

Sunday, March 30, 2014

CAIRO 2014 v1.0 and MLB Projected Standings

I’ve posted the final pre-season version of the 2014 CAIRO MLB projections and they are available at this link.

Yeah, I know that technically the season has already started.  You can ignore the Dodgers and Diamondbacks projections if you want.

Unfortunately because of time constraints I wasn’t able to run my full set of projected standings this year.  But you can check out the following places for projected standings.

Clay Davenport’s 2014 Projected Standings
Fangraphs’ 2014 Projected Standings using a combination of Steamer and ZiPS
Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projected 2014 standings

And here are CAIRO’s projected standings for 2014.

Date 3/30/2014
Iterations 100,000
American League
TM W L RS RA Div WC1 WC2 PS% W+/-
Red Sox 90 72 784 734 34.5% 12.5% 11.1% 58.1% 79-99
Rays 86 76 633 580 26.5% 12.2% 11.3% 49.9% 75-95
Yankees 84 78 735 706 15.3% 9.0% 10.0% 34.3% 73-93
Orioles 84 78 751 713 15.0% 8.9% 9.9% 33.7% 73-93
Blue Jays 81 81 798 784 8.7% 6.0% 7.8% 22.4% 71-91
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Tigers 90 72 722 650 75.5% 4.6% 3.8% 84.0% 80-100
Indians 81 81 696 678 17.7% 8.5% 8.3% 34.5% 70-90
Royals 79 83 675 731 4.8% 2.4% 3.7% 11.0% 68-88
Twins 73 89 674 749 1.5% 0.7% 1.2% 3.4% 62-82
White Sox 69 93 669 776 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 59-79
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Rangers 87 75 769 677 57.6% 10.8% 7.5% 76.0% 77-97
Athletics 83 79 696 651 24.9% 12.8% 10.9% 48.5% 73-93
Mariners 82 80 658 660 11.9% 7.7% 8.6% 28.3% 71-91
Angels 78 84 662 681 5.5% 3.9% 5.4% 14.8% 68-88
Astros 68 94 674 848 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 58-78
National League
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Nationals 91 71 696 595 76.8% 7.9% 4.9% 89.6% 81-101
Braves 85 77 640 616 17.7% 16.8% 13.5% 48.0% 74-94
Phillies 78 84 620 643 4.0% 4.8% 6.5% 15.3% 68-88
Mets 73 89 581 641 0.9% 1.0% 1.9% 3.8% 63-83
Marlins 73 89 582 658 0.6% 0.7% 1.4% 2.6% 63-83
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Cardinals 85 77 609 570 41.0% 6.5% 7.9% 55.4% 74-94
Pirates 85 77 576 553 32.7% 6.5% 8.2% 47.4% 74-94
Reds 82 80 657 651 19.5% 5.0% 7.1% 31.6% 71-91
Brewers 76 86 696 739 5.2% 1.5% 2.9% 9.6% 65-85
Cubs 72 90 626 693 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 3.0% 61-81
TM W L RS RA Div WC WC2 PS% W+/-
Dodgers 91 71 626 553 58.9% 14.3% 9.0% 82.2% 81-101
Giants 87 75 606 557 27.3% 19.0% 13.7% 60.0% 76-96
Padres 80 82 599 593 6.0% 6.5% 8.9% 21.3% 69-89
Diamondbacks 79 83 617 624 4.2% 5.0% 7.1% 16.3% 68-88
Rockies 78 84 806 831 3.6% 4.1% 6.1% 13.8% 67-87

W: Projected final 2014 wins
L: Projected final 2014 losses
RS: Projected final 2014 runs scored
RA: Projected final 2014 runs allowed
Div: Division win percentage
WC1: Wild card win percentage
WC2: Wild card win percentage
PS: Postseason percentage (Div + WC1 + WC2)
W+/-: Projected wins within one standard deviation

This does account for the fact that Dodgers won the first two games against Arizona, which added about one win to their final projection and an extra loss to the Diamondbacks.

This lines up about where CAIRO has the Yankees pegged with my depth charts, around 84 wins and needing some good fortune to contend for the division, particularly since they’re in what looks l like the best division top to bottom in baseball this year.

--Posted at 4:48 pm by SG / 76 Comments | - (0)

ESPN: Solarte wins infield sweepstakes

It sounded pretty ominous when Yangervis Solarte left George M. Steinbrenner Field on Friday night. Be here tomorrow, he was told, but leave your luggage at home.

It meant he still had a job with the Yankees, but no seat on the team charter that was leaving for Houston following the conclusion of the final spring training game Saturday afternoon. Eduardo Nunez, Solarte’s only rival for the last remaining spot on the roster, had been told the same thing: Be ready to play, but not to travel.

It probably made for two sleepless nights for two anxious young men.

But the anxiety of Friday gave way to the exhilaration of Saturday, when Solarte was told the Yankees had decided to bring him along as their second backup infielder, a spot that became more important when Brendan Ryan, who was signed to serve as Derek Jeter’s backup, came down with a bad back and will begin the season on the disabled list.

Still, right up to the end, Solarte thought he, and not Nunez, was about to be shipped out. The Yankees called Nunez in to the office first, and asked Solarte to wait.

“I thought that was it for me,” he said.

So he grabbed a baseball and started searching for Jeter to sign it. “I thought at least I’ll take a memento of playing with Derek Jeter with me,” he said.

Instead, the Yankees will be taking him along, not only with Jeter, but to occasionally take Jeter’s place on the field.

How awesome is that story about Solarte trying to get Jeter to sign his ball as a memento but then finding out that he had made the team?

In any event, the Yankees have not yet announced the corresponding roster move to go with Solarte being placed on to the 40-man roster and Nunez being optioned to the minors. It certainly appears as though it will not be Nunez who will be removed from the 40-man, so I guess the next best bet would be Preston Claiborne.

--Posted at 12:38 am by Brian Cronin / 17 Comments | - (0)

Friday, March 28, 2014 Anna makes roster; Nunez, Solarte up in air

The final roster spot in Yankees camp will come down to the last day of the spring, as utility infielders Eduardo Nunez and Yangervis Solarte have both been told not to pack for the trip to Houston.

Dean Anna was told that he has secured a spot on the roster, and the Yankees view Anna as the replacement for infielder Brendan Ryan, who will begin the season on the 15-day disabled list. That decision leaves Nunez and Solarte in limbo for one more night.

“Weird, a situation like that,” Nunez said. “It’s kind of weird, you know? You don’t know where you’re going on the last day of Spring Training. They said it’s still up in the air.”

Yankees manager Joe Girardi said that he had “nothing else to really report” about the situation with Nunez and Solarte. Nunez has played in 270 games for the Yankees over the last four years, while Solarte batted .429 this spring as a non-roster invitee.

This seemed at first to be a bit of a shock since Nunez is on the 40-man roster while Yangervis Solarte is not, so it seemed like Nunez and Dean Anna were going to be locks to make the team, since the Yankees could just send Solarte to the minors and see what happens. However, there is a twist in the story. Apparently, according to the New Jersey Star-Ledger’s Jorge Castillo, Solarte has an opt-out clause that no one seemed to be talking about until now where he has the ability to opt out of his deal with the Yankees if another team is willing to put him on their 25-man roster, and with the spring he has had so far it seems likely that he could find a team willing to do just that, so the Yankees might be in a situation where they have to decide between losing Nunez (or another player on the 40-man roster) or losing Solarte. If that is the case, then they might prefer to just add Solarte to the 40-man roster (and if they’re going to do that, then they might as well add him to the 25-man roster, as well). The fact that Brandon Rtan might not be able to play even after he comes off of the disabled list (he likely will still need an extended spring training after his official stint on the DL ends) is another factor that suggests that the Yankees would be better off having Anna and Solarte on the team instead of Nunez, since both Anna and Solarte are not embarrassments at shortstop while Nunez is.

In addition, there is always the possibility that the Yankees have another move involving the 40-man roster coming up, like a trade (or even a possible Stephen Drew signing). Preston Claiborne has made himself extremely fungible since late last season, so I could also see him losing his spot on the 40-man roster to make room for Solarte if need be.

The Yankees must make a decision by 3pm on Sunday, so it should be an interesting weekend. Congrats, by the way, to Dean Anna for making his very first big league roster!

--Posted at 10:56 pm by Brian Cronin / 27 Comments | - (0) Betances, Nuno rewarded with spots on 25-man roster

The Yankees have informed right-hander Dellin Betances and left-hander Vidal Nuno that they are on the club’s 25-man roster to begin the season, rounding out the last of their bullpen decisions.

The hard-throwing Betances posted an 0.73 ERA in 12 1/3 spring innings, while Nuno had a 3.38 mark in eight spring innings, transitioning to the bullpen after competing for the Yankees’ fifth starter vacancy.

“We liked the camps that they had,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “Betances had a great camp. We think Nuno gives us a lot of flexibility as far as a second left-hander, but also a guy that can give you some innings if you bring him in to face a left, right, left. He’ll give you a couple of innings.”

I think Nuno is wasted in the bullpen since the Yankees have David Phelps and Adam Warren, two very good long men, ahead of him on the depth charts, so I would have preferred to see the Yankees bring Matt Daley instead of Nuno but it is really not a big deal. The bigger deal is that Betances made the team. Let us hope that he can be the bridge to D-Rob this season (and not a burning bridge to D-Rob).

--Posted at 10:54 pm by Brian Cronin / 4 Comments | - (0)

CNN: In Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees buy a ready-made ace

Tanaka was the Yankees’ most expensive bauble in a $491 million free-agent shopping spree that follows the team’s worst season in 21 years (85-77). He brings with him a 24-0 record from 2013 and a split-fingered- fastball that Towers’ scouts not only graded as a perfect 80 (on the scouts’ traditional 20-to-80 scale) but also said was “probably the best” they’ve ever seen.
As much attention as Tanaka’s splitter gets, his slider, which he throws more often, is underrated. Yankees scout Brandon Duckworth (Tanaka’s teammate last year with the Eagles) needed to watch him throw only one live batting practice session this spring to see that Tanaka’s slider had even more bite than he remembered. “Best I’ve seen it,” says Duckworth. The slicker surface of the major league ball creates later and sharper tilt on the pitch.

“If you get a good grip of the ball, the slider is more crisp than in Japan ... a better slider,” adds Tanaka. “The problem could be that sometimes the balls can slip.” Says Darvish, who has held major league hitters to a .160 average on his slider, “I totally agree.”

“Very few pitchers throw a slider where the dot disappears,” says Yankees special assistant Trey Hillman. “A hitter looks for that dot on the baseball as it spins to identify the slider. But only a few pitchers spin the slider so fast that you can’t see the dot. I’ve only had two of them: Darvish and Zack Greinke. Now I’d put Tanaka’s slider with them. It’s that good.”
Says another evaluator from an interested team, “With his stuff he immediately becomes the best pitcher on the Yankees’ staff—and it’s not close.”

Sounds good to me.

--Posted at 8:15 am by SG / 59 Comments | - (0)

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Looking Ahead to 2014 - The Team

I’m still not sure how the rest of the 25 man roster will fill out by Opening Day, but I figure it will change throughout the year anyway so I took a stab at creating depth charts anyway.  I don’t think I’m going to be able to run my full projection blowout this year, but I should be able to post CAIRO’s projected standings by Monday.  Before that, let’s take a look at what the 2014 Yankees might look like on virtual paper.

I am calculating linear weights batting runs, defense and pitching runs allowed for CAIRO and the three projections available on Fangraphs (Oliver, Steamer and ZiPS) to get an overall view of the team.  We’ll start with the position players.

Player Pos PA cairo oliver steamer zips avg def
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 525 69 69 66 73 69 6
Derek Jeter SS 450 49 45 48 47 47 -9
Carlos Beltran RF 550 83 77 79 76 79 -5
Mark Teixeira 1B 525 70 67 71 73 70 4
Brian McCann C 500 66 71 70 67 68 -2
Alfonso Soriano DH 550 67 68 62 73 67 1
Kelly Johnson 3B 525 61 61 62 61 61 -3
Brian Roberts 2B 350 35 32 36 35 35 -1
Brett Gardner LF 550 67 65 63 67 65 12
Starters 4525 567 555 556 573 563 4
Player Pos PA cairo oliver steamer zips avg def
Ichiro Suzuki OF 360 35 33 37 37 36 7
Eduardo Nunez SS 350 35 31 34 37 34 -12
Dean Anna IF 200 21 19 23 21 21 0
Brendan Ryan SS 250 19 18 19 21 19 10
Francisco Cervelli C 185 18 18 16 18 18 0
Zoilo Almonte OF 175 18 18 19 17 18 2
Bench 1520 146 138 147 150 146 7
Total 6045 713 693 703 723 708 11

As I said, these numbers are an estimate of the linear weights batting runs in each projection and CAIRO’s projected average defense using DRS, UZR and zone rating pro-rated to estimated playing time. 

PA are based on a rough estimate of outs made.  Obviously the hope is that the Yankees can keep their key players healthy.  The Yankees scored 650 runs last season, and they should be a fair amount better than that this year health permitting, projecting around 708 runs on average with these playing time assumptions.  Granted, that’s not a high bar to clear.  Defense does not include catcher framing which is something that Brian McCann has rated well in so maybe you can add another win there.  The defense should be better than average despite Jeter and Nun-E, although I think Jeter’s projection is somewhat rosy.  He was 5 runs below average last season in very limited time and would be close to 50 runs below average if he played a full season in the same way.  Kelly Johnson also hasn’t played a whole lot of 3B in his career and it’s possible he doesn’t play well there.  On the plus side, maybe Nun-E won’t play as much as expected here.

The most glaring thing here to me is that the Yankees don’t have a true superstar hitter.  They’re paying a few players like they are superstars, but they aren’t.  The average AL team scored 702 runs in 2013, so that’s about where the Yankee offense likely projects for this season.

Pitching is obviously going to have to be better than average to make up for that, and it has a good chance to be.

Player Role IP cairo oliver steamer zips avg
CC Sabathia SP 200 96 83 96 96 93
Hiroki Kuroda SP 200 91 83 95 89 90
Ivan Nova SP 190 90 83 90 89 88
Masahiro Tanaka SP 190 88 55 90 88 80
Michael Pineda SP 140 79 61 67 78 72
David Phelps SP 120 61 56 62 65 61
Vidal Nuno SP 65 33 28 35 36 33
Starters 1105 538 450 536 542 516
Player Role IP cairo oliver steamer zips avg
David Robertson CL 65 20 22 22 27 23
Shawn Kelley SU 60 29 24 26 30 27
Matt Thornton SU 50 21 19 23 23 22
Matt Daley MR 40 16 15 17 19 17
Dellin Betances MR 40 25 23 20 28 24
Cesar Cabral MR 30 20 16 14 18 17
Adam Warren LR 60 33 29 29 32 31
Bullpen 345 163 149 152 177 160
Team 1450 701 599 688 718 677

I guess what’s most striking to me here is how much Oliver likes the Yankee pitching relative to the other projections.  Part of that is due to the fact that Oliver does not adjust for park, but that doesn’t explain it all.  Another part of it is that Oliver thinks Mashahiro Tanaka will be the best pitcher in the AL.  It’s certainly possible but it’s not likely in my opinion.

Some of the bullpen projections are probably a bit pessimistic, particularly Dellin Betances who has taken well to the bullpen but whose projection includes a lot of time when he was a bad starter in the minors.  I can also see Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda outpitching their projecctions.  On the downside I’m still concerned about CC Sabathia adjusting to his reduced velocity.

So what does this all mean?

stat cairo oliver steamer zips avg
RS 713 693 703 723 708
RA 701 599 688 718 677
Def 11 11 11 11 11
wpct .515 .574 .518 .510 .529
p162 83 93 84 83 86

If you want optimism, Oliver’s your forecast.  The other projections agree with my gut feeling that this is a mid-80s win team on talent and they will need a few things to go better than expected to contend.

That can certainly happen, of course.  Last year’s Red Sox team looked like an 84 win team heading into the season.  The 2012 Giants looked like one as well.  But I’d feel better if the Yankees had better depth to cover for the risks they are carrying in the infield.

At the very least, this team should be more fun to watch than last year’s team.  So that’s something.

--Posted at 8:53 am by SG / 58 Comments | - (0)

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Looking Ahead to 2014 - David Robertson

The unenviable task of replacing the legendary Mariano Rivera goes to David Robertson.  Robertson has been brilliant over the last three seasons and should be able to handle the closer role if the Yankees can ever get him a lead.


66 51 5 18 77 2.04 2.61 2.5

FIP: Fielding-independent pitching
WAR: Wins above replacement (RA based for CAIRO/ZiPS, FIP based for Oliver/Steamer)

Robertson had a very strong 2013, include the best strikeout to walk ratio of his career.  Robertson has steadily decreased his walk rate, which was the major concern with him.  His strike out rate has also been declining, but it has led to a more efficient Robertson.  Over his first four seasons Robertson averaged 4.40 pitches per batter faced, over the last two seasons he’s been at 3.98.

2014 Projections

projection IP H HR BB K ERA FIP WAR
cairo 67 54 5 24 80 2.64 2.80 1.7
oliver 63 50 5 22 78 2.98 2.75 1.2
steamer 65 53 6 23 72 2.94 3.17 0.9
zips 63 48 6 22 85 2.71 2.42 1.3
average 65 51 5 23 79 2.82 2.79 1.3

The projections generally agree that Robertson will pitch well again this year, although CAIRO likes him more than the rest, as it usually has.

2014 CAIRO Percentile Forecasts

percentile ip h r er hr bb k ra era fip war
80% 81 50 17 16 3 20 96 1.91 1.82 1.97 2.8
65% 74 52 19 18 4 22 88 2.30 2.21 2.35 2.3
Baseline 67 54 21 20 5 24 80 2.75 2.64 2.80 1.7
35% 50 46 18 18 5 21 61 3.25 3.12 3.25 1.0
20% 35 37 15 14 5 17 43 3.82 3.68 3.80 0.5

I think Robertson will be his typical self, and should be closer to his 65% forecast than his baseline.

Robertson is in the final year of team control and I am not sure why the Yankees haven’t extended him yet.  I have a hunch that it is at least partially because they want to see if he has the appropriate “closer’s mentality.”  I don’t see any reason to think that Robertson can’t continue to get batters out just because he’ll be starting the ninth instead of the eighth.  It’s true that at this point in his career his save percentage is not good, but that’s because setup men get granted lots of save opportunities in games that they will not be given an opportunity to save, so their blown save rates are disproportionate.  Robertson has 124 saves and holds in his career in 134 chances.  He will be fine.

--Posted at 8:22 am by SG / 28 Comments | - (0)

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