Monday, December 1, 2014
The Yankees are in “serious pursuit” of lefty Andrew Miller, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Olney adds that given the teams that are showing the most interest in Miller, a four-year deal is likely, as others have indicated.
Miller was said last week to have multiple three-year offers already in hand, leading to further speculation that four years was the likely outcome. Over the weekend, reports indicated that he’d pared his list of possible destinations down to eight clubs, with AL East rivals Boston and Baltimore among the teams to have shown interest. On Saturday, Miller’s agent, Mark Rodgers, told the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo that the lefty was advancing toward a decision.
So as I read this, I wonder to myself if I would rather have Miller for the next four years at let’s say $10M or Robertson at $12M? Luckily, I can just ask CAIRO. Here’s how it compares the two for 2015 as Yankees.
Miller: 60 IP, 46 H, 22 R, 19 ER, 5 HR, 26 BB, 82 K, 3.26 RA, 2.88 ERA, 2.80 FIP
Robertson: 67 IP, 53 H, 22 R, 21 ER, 7 HR, 24 BB, 88 K, 2.97 RA, 2.83 ERA, 2.84 FIP
I’d rather have both honestly, but that’s not very likely. I suppose you can make the case that you’d rather have Miller, the difference in salary (if there is one) and the draft pick over Robertson. But Robertson has been better for longer and Miller has never been as good as he was last year. They are the same age so that’s not an issue.
Give me one and I suppose I’m happy. Well, not happy. Less unhappy.
Thursday, November 27, 2014
The Yankees must find a replacement for Derek Jeter, but apparently it’s unlikely to be Philadelphia star Jimmy Rollins.
The Yanks found the price tag for a potential trade for Rollins too high when they called the Phillies to broach the subject, a baseball official with knowledge of the conversation confirmed. ESPN’s Jayson Stark reported via Twitter Wednesday that the Yankees offered a “utility player” and the Phillies had much more in mind because of how much they value their shortstop.
Plus, Stark reported, Phils GM Ruben Amaro described Rollins as “somebody we want on our club” who would be “very hard to replace.”
Amaro seems like a serious pain in the ass to deal with, doesn’t he?
Rollins would have been a nice stop-gap pick up at the right price. CAIRO projects that Rollins would hit .247/.323/.385 in 637 PA as a Yankee, which would be worth about 2.6 offensive WAR. But he only would have been a temporary solution to what currently looks like a long-term need.
On this Thanksgiving Day, I am thankful that Amaro is not the Yankees’ GM. And I am thankful for the readers here. Enjoy your meals!
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
Pablo Sandoval collected a payday of nearly $100 million from the Red Sox. Now Chase Headley is primed to cash in with a meaty contract of his own.
No, Headley won’t be looking at a deal approaching nine figures like the Panda did, but with Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez both headed to Boston, the 30-year-old now represents the best −only? − third baseman available on the free-agent market this winter.
The Yankees remain interested in bringing Headley back to the Bronx, where he hit .268/.371/.398 in 58 games, a stark improvement from the .229/.296/.355 slash line he posted in 77 games with the Padres before being traded to the Bombers.
Headley was believed to be seeking a three-year deal when the offseason began, but now that Sandoval and Ramirez have scored deals of five and four years, respectively, Headley − a better defender than Sandoval, although a slightly lesser offensive weapon − is likely to land himself a four-year deal worth $56 million-$60 million according to two industry sources.
I finally got around to starting my 2015 CAIRO projections, which are probably not ready for release quite yet, but they peg Headley to hit something like .254/.348/.414 with 18 HRs over 594 PA as a Yankee in 2015, which would be worth about 2.5 wins above a replacement level 3B. If you believe DRS, he projects to save about seven runs over an average 3B defensively. If you lean more towards UZR, he’s closer to 10 runs above average defensively.
Let’s say he’s a 3.5 win 3B right now, and would likely lose about 0.6 wins per year. A four year deal for Headley gets you about 10 WAR. What’s the fair market rate for that? Apparently it’s $56-60 million which seems reasonable. I think I’d do it if I were the Yankees, although if I were the Yankees there’s a whole bunch of other crap I’d be doing as well.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
In years past, if the Boston Red Sox made a high-profile acquisition in the off-season, the Yankees sometimes reacted with one of their own.
When Boston signed Daisuke Matsuzaka, the Yankees went and picked up Kei Igawa. When the Red Sox were close to signing Mark Teixeira, the Yankees swept in at the last moment and stole him away. And when the Red Sox wanted Jose Contreras, the Yankees opened the vault for him, too.
But those days have been over for a long time. On Monday, the Red Sox committed nearly $200 million to sign Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez in a surprising combination of moves that resembled Yankees tactics of the past. But the Yankees barely flinched.
They remained quiet, sticking to their off-season plan to add specific and moderate pieces without spending nearly as lavishly as they did a year ago. Back then, the additions of Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, Masahiro Tanaka, Carlos Beltran, Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson came at a cost of roughly half a billion dollars over the length of all the deals, and the Yankees still did not make the playoffs.
The hope is that the contracts will still pay off, particularly with Ellsbury, McCann and Tanaka.
Yeah, keep hoping.
Monday, November 24, 2014
I spoke to an MLB executive this week who believes David Robertson will get a three-year deal for $39 million or a four-year deal for $52 million. Some pretty good neighborhoods to occupy.
I would think the three-year deal is one the Yankees would easily do, but the four-year deal is something they might have to think more about. Consider that in two years Dellin Betances will hit arbitration and start to make more significant money, too.
But the more I think about it, the more I’m fascinated by Jimmy Rollins. He turns 36 next week, but has only one year left on his contract in Philadelphia for $11 million. He’s realistically only slightly above average at this stage, both offensively and defensively. But Rollins is also a veteran with leadership skills and some swagger. Those qualities will serve him well as the guy “replacing Derek Jeter.” It’s not a long-term commitment, and if the Yankees are willing to take on the entire salary it might not take a lot in prospect cost to get him.
Robertson’s gone. I guarantee it. It bothers me that the Yankees didn’t try to extend him before last season when they could have probably kept him for a more reasonable price. Then again, it’s not like closer is going to really matter with the team looking like a mid 70s win team, maybe high 70s if things break just right.
As for Rollins, sure, why not?
Friday, November 21, 2014
Colombian outfielder Bryan Emery, the No. 23 international prospect for July 2, has signed with the Yankees.
Emery, 16, was the last available player from Baseball America’s Top 30 international prospects list for July 2, and the signing gives the Yankees 10 of those top 30 players.
Emery is 6-foot-3, 190 pounds with a loose swing from the left side. He had been switch-hitting, though he’s hit exclusively lefthanded in recent months. He’s strong and generates easy, explosive power, though leading up to July 2, there were mixed reviews about his game hitting, partly because of his environment.
Adding young and talented players is certainly a good thing. And Emery’s young enough that he should be hitting his peak age of 27 by the time the Yankees are relevant again.
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Today is the deadline for teams to add Rule 5 Draft eligible players to their 40-man rosters. Any players who are eligible, but aren’t added to a roster, can be plucked away by other teams during the Dec. 11 selection.
Players eligible for the draft mostly include high school and international players signed in 2010 and college players signed in 2010.
The Yankees currently have 36 spots filled on their 40-man roster. Here’s a look at the notable players they will consider protecting.
I’ll save you the pain of watching the slide show and list the 10 players the article runs through:
1. Tyler Austin, OF
2. Mason Williams, OF
3. Kyle Roller, 1B
4. Mark Montgomery, RHP
5. Branden Pinder, RHP
6. Cito Culver, SS
7. Zach Nuding, RHP
8. Matt Tracy, LHP
9. Nik Turley, LHP
10. Danny Burawa, RHP
I think Burawa and Austin are just about locks to be added to the 40 man roster. That leaves two spots for the other eight, although they could also free up spots being held by some of the more fringy players on the roster, like David Huff, Eury Perez, Zelous Wheeler, or Jacoby Ellsbury.
Update: Per Mark Feinsand on Twitter:
The Yankees added OF Tyler Austin, RHP Danny Burawa, RHP Branden Pinder & OF Mason Williams to 40-man roster to protect them from Rule 5.