How Should the Yankees’ Outfield Be Configured Going Forward?

With the news that Curtis Granderson is likely to be activated tonight, the Yankees find themselves with a suddenly crowded outfield picture.  These things generally have a way of working themselves out, but let’s take a look at the various ways the Yankees could deploy their outfield for maximum benefit.

The first thing to look at are the projections for everyone for the rest of 2013.  Since I haven’t run CAIRO to include 2013 yet and we have close to one-quarter of the season of additional data I’ll just use the ZiPS rest of the season projections available at Fangraphs for this.

First off, here are the overall projections for the six outfielders on the 40 man roster who have seen or will see the bulk of the playing time for the Yankees this year barring more injuries.

Player	Pos	PA	avg/obp/slg	wOBA	vL	vR	outs	br	fld	br+fld
Brett Gardner	OF	400	.257/.346/.369	.319	.302	.324	262	47	11	58
Vernon Wells	OF	400	.263/.308/.474	.336	.354	.330	284	52	4	55
Curtis Granderson	OF	400	.243/.329/.483	.348	.307	.363	271	56	-3	52
Ichiro Suzuki	OF	400	.278/.307/.387	.298	.293	.300	284	43	2	45
Brennan Boesch	OF	400	.249/.300/.418	.310	.300	.313	289	44	-5	39
Ben Francisco	OF	400	.227/.301/.357	.292	.301	.287	282	39	-2	37

wOBA: Weighted on-base average
vL/R: Regressed projected platoon split for wOBA vs LHP/RHP
br: Linear weights batting runs
fld: Projected fielding runs saved compared to average using UZR

I should note that the fielding is based on primary position played over the time that is included in the projection and it doesn’t account for position changes.  I should also note that it’s based only on UZR and may not give a completely accurate picture of the defensive ability of these players.  That being said, we can assume that Curtis Granderson would project better defensively in an OF corner than Vernon Wells and we can assume that Brett Gardner would project a bit worse as a primary CF.  So consider it more of a rough proxy for defensive ability and less a hard and fast number to use.

If you were to go strictly by these numbers, the player that should lose the most playing time of the four primary starting outfield candidates is Ichiro. Vernon Wells’s solid start has made his projection pretty respectable, albeit with a bit less OBP than you’d like to see.

Of course, we also need to consider the platoon advantage.  Here’s the same list sorted by projected wOBA vs. LHP.

Player	Pos	vL	RAA/150 PA
Vernon Wells	OF	.354	4.8
Curtis Granderson	OF	.307	-0.8
Brett Gardner	OF	.302	-1.4
Ben Francisco	OF	.301	-1.5
Brennan Boesch	OF	.300	-1.6
Ichiro Suzuki	OF	.293	-2.5

This is purely looking at offense.  RAA/150 PA is runs above the league average wOBA of .314 in 150 PA.  That’s for all players, not just outfielders.

It’s hard to justify Ben Francisco’s spot on the roster when he’s not a better platoon option than Granderson or Gardner, particularly since his defense is not likely any better.  Although the Yankees don’t need to clear a 40 man roster spot to activate Granderson, I’d assume Francisco is the most likely candidate to go.  Clearing the 40 man roster spot would also clear the way for an eventual call up of David Adams in a couple of days, presumably with one of the extra arms in the bullpen sent down.

Let’s look at the platoon splits for wOBA vs. RHP, using 250 PA instead.

Player	Pos	vR	RAA/250 PA
Curtis Granderson	OF	.363	9.9
Vernon Wells	OF	.330	3.1
Brett Gardner	OF	.324	2.1
Brennan Boesch	OF	.313	-0.2
Ichiro Suzuki	OF	.300	-2.8
Ben Francisco	OF	.287	-5.3

It doesn’t look good here for Ichiro either.

If were to look strictly at offense using these projections,  Wells and Granderson should play the most going forward.  Of course, we shouldn’t just look strictly at offense which means Gardner should not lose much playing time either.  So the primary outfield going forward should probably be Wellsy in LF, Gardy in CF and Grandy in RF.  Actually, it may be better to have Grandy in LF and Verny in RF but Verny has only played 28 games in RF in his career and may not be comfortable there. 

Ichiro can play all three spots and can be used to spell all three.  Since Kevin Youkilis is likely done for the year., the Yankees can also DH Wells against LHP and use Ichiro in the OF if they want to shore up the defense and give Travis Hafner some much-needed rest. 

The Yankees have gotten 492 PA out of their outfield in 38 games which means they should have about 1600 over the rest of the season.  I think they’ll figure out a way to get everyone at least 300 PA, with the ones who perform better earning more.