Friday, September 3, 2010
Logan’s Run
Boone Logan has been a pleasant surprise out of the Yankees' bullpen. Here are a look at his pre and post All Star Break numbers:| Date | IP | H | ER | BB | SO/9 | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2010 to Jun 29, 2010 | 18.1 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 6.38 | 1 |
| Date | IP | H | ER | BB | SO/9 | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2010 to Sep 3, 2010 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9.64 | 1 |
| Date | BA | OBP | SLG | BAbip | wOBAa | ERA | FIP | CERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2010 to Jun 29, 2010 | .286 | .390 | .400 | .339 | .378 | 3.93 | 4.45 | 5.15 |
| Date | BA | OBP | SLG | BAbip | wOBAa | ERA | FIP | CERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2010 to Sep 3, 2010 | .160 | .222 | .240 | .206 | .213 | 0.64 | 2.84 | 1.39 |
Logan didn't really turn any heads for the first half of the season, although most would agree he had decent stuff even if the results weren't there. But since the ASB, Logan has really been a valuable arm out of the pen. He's striking out batters with greater frequency, and most importantly his walks are way down, having only issued 3 free passes in the second half. A BAbip of .206 is pretty low and likely unsustainable for anyone not name Mariano. However, through September 1st, batters are hitting line drives at a rate of 9% against Logan in the second half compared to 25% in the first.
For the season, Logan been a much tougher opponent against lefties, not surprisingly (.286/.375/.444 vs. RHB, .175/.266/.211 vs. LHB). However, Girardi has avoided using him as just a lefty specialist. He's actually faced more righties than lefties this season (72 to 64). If by some miracle the Yankees do make the 2010 postseason, Logan will likely be used exclusively against lefties. His splits certainly do make him an attractive choice for a late inning appearance against a Josh Hamilton, Carlos Pena, or Joe Mauer.
While Joba and Robertson have gotten most of the attention for reasons both good and bad, Logan has somewhat flown under the radar. With Damaso Marte still shelved, he's stepped into the lefty reliever role and performed well. He almost makes the Javy Vazquez deal look like a good trade, if you ignore this.....
Yankees.com: Yanks motor on to seventh straight win
NEW YORK—Sparked by a makeshift top of the order, the Yankees blitzed Blue Jays starter Brandon Morrow en route to their seventh straight win, 7-3, on Friday.
With Derek Jeter getting a routine day off and Nick Swisher sidelined due to a stiff left knee, the Yankees had Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson together in their top two spots for the first time this season. Suffice it to say that the change worked, with the two combining for four runs and four RBIs to propel the Bronx Bombers’ offense.
The Yankees really need to consider making Brett Gardner the leadoff hitter against RHP, don’t they?
Blue Jays (69-64) @ Yankees (84-50), Friday, September 3, 2010, 1:05pm **Game Chatter**
TOR: Brandon Morrow (25, RHP, 10-6, 4.27) vs. NYY: Ivan Nova (23, RHP, 1-0, 1.93)
Lineups
Toronto Blue Jays
McCoy SS
Snider LF
Bautista RF
Wells CF
Overbay 1B
Hill 2B
Lind DH
McDonald 3B
Molina C
New York Yankees
Gardner LF
Granderson CF
Teixeira 1B
Cano 2B
Posada C
Berkman DH
Kearns RF
Pena 3B
Nunez SS
That’s a HOF left side of the infield there…
After Jose Bautista hits his 7th home run of the day today he’ll reach the 50 HR plateau. Congratulations to him.
The fact that the Blue Jays announced they were shutting Morrow down for the season AFTER making this start against the Yankees is pretty annoying. It’d be nice if the Yankees make the Jays regret not shutting him down after his last start.
They won’t, but it’d be nice.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Are the 2010 Yankees Better Than the 2009 Yankees?
Today’s win against Oakland was the Yankees 134th game of the season. They now sit at 84-50, one game ahead of Tampa Bay in the loss column for the AL East division lead.
The Yankees have scored 726 runs this year and allowed 545. That works out to a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .633, compared to their actual winning percentage of .627. Their Pythagenpat record of 85-49 is one game better than their actual record.
After 134 games in 2009, the Yankees were 86-48.
They had scored 773 runs and allowed 627 runs. That works out to a Pythagenpat winning percentage of .601, compared to their actual winning percentage of .642. So their Pythagenpat record of 81-53 was about five games worse than their actual record. Of course, that could just be the Wang/Claggett factor.
Here’s how the two teams compare on a per-game basis through 134 games.
| Year | Gms | RS/G | RA/G | AL Avg |
| 2009 | 134 | 5.77 | 4.68 | 4.82 |
| 2010 | 134 | 5.42 | 4.07 | 4.46 |
RS/G: Runs scored per game
RA/G: Runs allowed per game
We shouldn’t really do a direct comparison here because there’s a fairly significant difference in the run environments of the 2009 and 2010 American League. The average AL team scored and allowed 4.82 runs per game last season, compared to 4.46 so far in 2010. So here’s a comparison of the 2009 and 2010 Yankees through 134 games relative to their respective run environments.
| Year | Gms | RS/G | RA/G | AL Avg |
| 2009 | 134 | 1.20 | 0.97 | 1.00 |
| 2010 | 134 | 1.21 | 0.91 | 1.00 |
What this shows is the ratio of Yankees RS/G and RA/G relative to league average.
So after 134 games in 2009, the Yankees were scoring about 20% better than league average and were allowing runs at a rate of about 3% better than average.
In 2010, the Yankee offense despite scoring fewer runs per game this season have actually been 21% better than league average. But the real difference so far is that the Yankee run prevention has been 9% better than league average.
So if you look at Pythagenpat and runs scored/allowed relative to league, the 2010 Yankees have performed better than the 2009 Yankees.
It’s not that simple though, at least not to me. To me when we talk about something being better than something else, you’re not just talking about what happened, you’re also talking about ability. So if we really want to see if the 2010 Yankees are better than the 2009 Yankees, we should look a bit deeper into the offense and pitching/defense to see if the runs scored/allowed are skewed by things that may or may not be repeatable. This could be due to different performance with men on base or fluctuations in BABIP on offense and defense, or defensive support being better or worse.
Through 134 games the 2010 Yankees have hit .270/.349/.439, and their offensive performance adds up to 704 context-neutral linear weights batting runs, compared to their 726 actual runs scored. So if you go by linear weights instead of actual runs scored, the 2010 offense has been more like 18% better than league average.
Contrast that with the 2009 Yankees who had hit .282/.360/.479 which was good for 793 context-neutral batting runs compared to their 773 actual runs scored. That would have made them about 23% than league average.
The difference there is probably due to a slightly better performance by the 2010 Yankees with runners in scoring position. They’ve also hit into 18 fewer double plays than their 2009 counterparts had through 134 games, although my linear weights formula does factor in double plays.
I don’t think I’d disagree that even if the 2010 Yankees are scoring runs at a higher rate relative to league than the 2009 Yankees did their offense isn’t quite as good, but the gap is certainly smaller than I’d intuitively thought it was.
The big argument for the 2010 Yankees being better than the 2009 Yankees lies in run prevention. Allowing runs at a rate of 91% of league average compared to 97% of league average is a pretty significant improvement. Again though, we probably need to look a little deeper into the pitching staffs and their performances to see if they’re actually pitching better.
| Year | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA |
| 2009 | 4.69 | 4.31 | 4.46 | 4.56 |
| 2010 | 4.13 | 3.86 | 4.36 | 4.51 |
RA: Runs allowed per nine innings
ERA: Earned runs allowed per nine innings
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
CERA: Component ERA
Despite the big difference in RA and ERA between 2009 and 2010, looking at the peripheral stats shows that the pitching hasn’t necessarily been that much better than this year than it was last year. Here’s how these stats look relative to league average.
| Year | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA |
| 2009 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 1.00 | 1.02 |
| 2010 | 0.93 | 0.93 | 1.05 | 1.08 |
Interestingly, the component stats show that the 2010 Yankee pitchers haven’t even been as good as the 2009 pitchers were, at least if you trust FIP and CERA. While we shouldn’t necessarily assume all of the divergence between FIP and ERA is due to luck in BABIP, if component ERA says the same thing as FIP then it’s a bit more likely that there’s been some good fortune in the 2010 Yankees pitching performance, whether it be with BABIP against or in pitching better with runners on base, or in strand rate, or in a myriad of other things.
Of course, that doesn’t mean that the Yankee run prevention as a unit hasn’t been better, because we still need to consider defense.
| Year | ZR | DRS | UZR | AVG |
| 2009 | -1 | 8 | -5 | 1 |
| 2010 | -6 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
ZR: Run saved compared to average using Chris Dial’s methodology for converting standard zone rating
DRS: Defensive runs saved using John Dewan’s plus/minus methodology
UZR: Runs saved compared to average using Ultimate zone rating
I’ll mention the fact that defensive metrics are still a bit wonky, so even though these numbers say there’s not much difference between the two defenses that’s not necessarily true. Replacing Johnny Damon in LF with Brett Gardner and adding Curtis Granderson in CF has sure looked like an improvement to me, and I think Nick Swisher’s been better defensively this year too. The primary areas that have looked worse defensively have been catcher and shortstop, but I think that’s been mitigated elsewhere. I think this year’s defense is better than last year’s, although I don’t think the gap is that big.
With 28 games left in the year, a lot can change, and we can probably revisit this question. Should the Yankees make the postseason by some miracle, it’ll be interesting to see how the 25 man postseason roster compares to the 2009 Yankee postseason roster which was stronger than the overall 2009 team.
Right now, I’d still probably say the 2009 Yankees were better, but the gap is smaller than I thought.
Yankees.com: CC allows just one hit as Yanks sweep A’s
NEW YORK—CC Sabathia continued his regular-season unbeaten streak at Yankee Stadium, turning in a dominant performance as the Yankees completed a four-game sweep of the Athletics, 5-0, on Thursday.
Curtis Granderson, who replaced an injured Nick Swisher in the second inning, provided the bulk of the offense with a pair of home runs in New York’s sixth consecutive win. The Yankees won nine of the 10 meetings with Oakland this season.
On a sweltering afternoon in the Bronx, Sabathia was as good as he has been all season. The only hit he allowed over eight innings was a Mark Ellis ground-ball single through the right side. He faced a threat in the third, when Jorge Posada committed a two-base throwing error with nobody out.
Big deal. His FIP for this game was 3.50.
It was win #19 on the season for Sabathia, and with 5 or 6 starts left, CC’s got a very good shot at 20 wins. Although readers of this blog should understand that pitcher wins aren’t really a very good measure of a pitcher’s value, it’s still fun to see a guy get to 20.
Curtis Granderson’s almost certainly going to end the year with a disappointing overall line, but his performance since re-working his swing with Kevin Long is cause for optimism going forward IMO.
Sweeping Oakland is awesome, but ultimately meaningless if the Yankees don’t take two of three from Toronto.
Complain away.
Athletics (65-67) @ Yankees (83-50), Thursday, September 2, 2010, 1:05pm **Game Chatter**
OAK: Dallas Braden (26, LHP, 9-9, 3.28) vs. NYY: CC Sabathia (29, LHP, 18-5, 3.14)
The name Braden seems familiar to me for some reason.
Lineups
San Francisco Athletics of Oakland
Crisp CF
Davis LF
Suzuki DH
Kouzmanoff 3B
Ellis 2B
Carson RF
Larish 1B
Powell C
Pennington SS
New York Yankees
The King of Outs SS
Swisher RF
Teixeira 1B
Cano 2B
Thames DH
Posada C
Kearns LF
Nunez 3B
Gardner CF
House Money day, with Francisco Cervelli getting the day game after the night game off.
No guarantees today. Well, one. Derek Jeter will hit at least three ground balls.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Yankees.com: Burnett returns to form; Yanks win fifth straight
NEW YORK—Mark Teixeira drove in three runs and A.J. Burnett submitted a quality start in the Yankees’ fifth consecutive victory, a 4-3 win over the Athletics on Wednesday night.
The Yankees jumped on Oakland early once again, scoring once in the first and three times in the second to build a 4-0 lead. Derek Jeter got the ball rolling with a leadoff single off Brett Anderson, just the shortstop’s second hit in a span of 26 at-bats. He scored on Teixeira’s RBI double later in the frame.
Eh, I realize I’m probably spoiled but I don’t think six innings and three runs against Oakland is anything to be excited about, although I will take it over three innings and six runs. With Tampa Bay and Boston both winning, the Yankees pick up no ground, but drop their magic numbers by one.
Other important notes:
Pettitte’s latest bullpen session encouraging.
A-Rod takes BP, is practicing caution
Vazquez earns way back to Yanks’ rotation
Athletics (65-66) @ Yankees (82-50), Tuesday, August 31, 2010, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
OAK: Brett Anderson (22, LHP, 3-5, 3.32) vs. NYY: A.J. Burnett (33, RHP, 9-12, 5.17)
Although last night’s guarantee ran into a hiccup, I am going to make three lead pipe cinch guarantees tonight. If any of these don’t happen, I’ll refund your money.
- Toronto will roll over for Tampa Bay
- The Red Sox will destroy Baltimore
- Brett Anderson will pitch extremely well tonight
- A.J. Burnett will pitch horrendously tonight
Ok, that’s four guarantees instead of three, but I’m sticking with them.
MSNBC.com: Berkman (ankle) to be activated Wednesday
Berkman went 0-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout in his second minor league rehab game with Double-A Trenton on Tuesday night. The Yankees are also expected to add Jonathan Albaladejo, Chad Moeller and Greg Golson to the roster.
You know, if Berkman can’t get a hit in AA, do we really want him back?
I’d like to see if Albaladejo’s success in AAA this year carries over into the majors and he’ll surely get his chances to pitch with the detritus that is the Yankee rotation.
Chad Moeller is not Francisco Cervelli, so that’s a plus, and Greg Golson is probably not going to start much but could be useful as a pinch runner for Brett Gardner.
Derek Jeter’s Shot At History
Consider the following list of players:
Omar Moreno, 1980
Frank Taveras, 1979
Horace Clarke, 1970
Juan Samuel, 1984
Jose Reyes, 2005
Omar Moreno, 1979
Sandy Alomar, 1971
Sandy Alomar, 1970
Jimmy ROllins, 2007
Juan Pierre, 2006
So, what’s the point of this list? It’s a list of the top ten single season total for outs made (AB - H + CS + GDP) since 1969, which is when the mound was lowered to account for pitchers dominating the game in 1968.
So what does this have to do with Derek Jeter? Jeter’s made 425 outs so far this year. At his current pace, he’d end the year at 522, which would place him in a tie for 8th place on the list with Sandy Alomar’s 1970.
If he really steps it up, he may be able to get to second place and surpass Frank Taveras’s 535 in 1979. Unfortunately, it looks like Omar Moreno’s 550 outs made in 1980 is a bit out of his reach.
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Yankees.com: Yanks close August alone in first
NEW YORK—Mark Teixeira crushed a three-run homer and Nick Swisher and Curtis Granderson also went deep, leading the Yankees to a 9-3 pounding of the Athletics on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium.
By virtue of the Rays’ loss to the Blue Jays, the Yankees enter September with sole possession of first place in the American League East.
Teixeira cracked the game open with his fourth-inning shot off A’s starter Vin Mazzaro, reaching the second deck of right-field seats for his 30th home run of the season and second in as many games.
With the blast, Teixeira became just the sixth Yankees player all-time to hit at least 30 homers in each of his first two seasons after joining the club, a feat also accomplished by Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield.
I’d suggest the Yankees rent in first place and not buy, because they’ll be out of first by Thursday.
That being said, the next time someone tells you that Brian Cashman is a horrible GM who only appears competent because of his payroll advantage, remind them that he turned the tattered remains of what used to be Scott Proctor’s right arm into Nick Swisher.
Hughes was meh, but he’s also now cracked his prior career high for IP in a season, so I’d expect him to struggle a bit now.
In unrelated news, Aroldis Chapman has hit 103 mph twice in his first inning in MLB. Let’s ignore the fact that he signed for about the same cost that the Yankees paid for Kei Igawa, and just be happy that the fans of a team that’s not considered a large market team get to enjoy having a top talent pitching for them.
Athletics (65-65) @ Yankees (81-50), Tuesday, August 31, 2010, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
OAK: Vin Mazzaro (23, RHP, 6-6, 3.61) vs. NYY: Phil Hughes (24, RHP, 15-6, 4.12)
There are few guarantees in life, but one is that Tampa Bay will win tonight. Toronto prefers to roll over for the Rays so they can rest up for playing the Yankees.
Toronto vs. Tampa Bay (13 games, 3.6 runs scored per game, 5.8 runs allowed per game)
Toronto vs. New York (12 games, 4.8 runs scored per game, 4.6 runs allowed per game)
Ergo, the Yankees have to win this one if they want to remain tied for first place in the AL East.
Derek Jeter’s 2010 Actual vs. Projected Through August 30
Since Mel Hall mentioned this in an earlier thread and it was something I was planning to look at anyway, here’s how Derek Jeter’s 2010 year to date performance compares to his average projection heading into the season, pro-rated to his actual YTD playing time.
| Projection | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| average | 602 | 539 | 164 | 124 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 7 | 84 | 15 | 4 | 18 | .304 | .372 | .426 |
| ytd | 602 | 545 | 146 | 109 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 6 | 84 | 14 | 4 | 19 | .268 | .332 | .378 |
| difference | -6 | 18 | 15 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
Difference is just the projected stat minus the actual stat. So if you look at the hits column, Jeter has had 18 fewer hits than projected, 15 of them singles. He’s also hit two fewer HRs and doubles than projected, and walked five fewer times. K rate is spot on and SB/CS is right there. He’s hit into one more DP than projected.
If we think of Jeter’s average projection as a baseline, we can look at his projection in terms of a binomial distribution of each component stat.
| StDev | PA | AB | H | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | SO | SB | CS | DP | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| +2 Std | 602 | 539 | 189 | 129 | 36 | 5 | 19 | 68 | 12 | 66 | 22 | 0 | 10 | .351 | .447 | .541 |
| +1 Std | 602 | 539 | 176 | 126 | 31 | 3 | 15 | 61 | 10 | 75 | 18 | 2 | 14 | .327 | .410 | .483 |
| Baseline | 602 | 539 | 164 | 124 | 26 | 2 | 12 | 53 | 7 | 84 | 15 | 4 | 18 | .304 | .372 | .426 |
| -1 Std | 602 | 539 | 151 | 121 | 21 | 1 | 8 | 46 | 4 | 93 | 11 | 7 | 22 | .280 | .334 | .368 |
| -2 Std | 602 | 539 | 138 | 117 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 39 | 2 | 103 | 7 | 9 | 27 | .256 | .296 | .314 |
This is how I figure out my CAIRO percentile projections, although I also include a function to allocate playing time based on how a player’s projection looks (ie, a player who’s exceeding his projection will probably play more, a player who’s underperforming will play less). In this case since we’re looking at Jeter’s YTD performance, I’m holding the playing time constant.
As you can see, Jeter’s performance is within one standard deviation of his projection, albeit on the negative side.
So the question is probably whether or not those 18 missing hits and three missing extra base hits are the product of a decline in bat speed or just a representation of the fluctuation that can happen in a baseball season. Probably a bit of both, although perhaps the decline in bat speed is overstated somewhat by his actual results so far.
A Tale of Two Long Relief Outings
Given what we’ve seen out of Javier Vazquez so far in 2010, the last thing any of us should be getting excited about are two decent relief outings. Well, maybe that or Derek Jeter coming up in the ninth inning with the tying run on first base and one out.
That doesn’t mean it might not be interesting to look at some of the data from those outings and see if it shows us anything.
August 25 vs. Toronto
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes | % |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 89.9 | 91.3 | -6.1 | 11.6 | 28 | 18 | 64.3% |
| CU (Curveball) | 71.8 | 75.7 | 8.0 | -2.3 | 11 | 8 | 72.7% |
| SL (Slider) | 84.6 | 86.1 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 10 | 7 | 70.0% |
| CH (Changeup) | 78.7 | 81.0 | -8.5 | 7.7 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% |
August 30 vs. Oakland
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes | % |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 89.4 | 91.7 | -6.0 | 9.1 | 30 | 19 | 63.3% |
| CU (Curveball) | 72.2 | 82.1 | 6.7 | -3.1 | 17 | 13 | 76.5% |
| CH (Changeup) | 77.9 | 81.5 | -7.3 | 4.8 | 11 | 7 | 63.6% |
| FT (TwoSeam Fastball) | 88.8 | 89.6 | -10.5 | 5.5 | 8 | 6 | 75.0% |
| SL (Slider) | 83.3 | 85.6 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% |
There’s a slight increase in his average fastball velocity, but that is SOP for a pitcher who moves from the rotation to the bullpen and it’s not enough to really think he’s going to get back to where he was last year.
What caught my attention last night was that Vazquez seemed to be throwing some of his offspeed stuff more slowly. That’s similar to the adjustment that Mike Mussina made in 2008.
Unfortunately, it looks like that was perception more than reality, because the average velocity of his curveball and changeup are about the same in both outings.
The interesting thing that popped up in the PitchFX data to me is the appearance of a two-seam fastball. Although the PitchFX pitch classification algorithm is still a work in progress and there’s some gray area in there, the difference in the average horizontal break and average vertical break between the FF (four seamer) and FT(two seamer) is large enough to make me think they are two distinct pitches.
Obviously, the lost velocity seems to be Vazquez’s biggest issue, but in terms of his statistics and not his physical tools, the biggest issue he’s had this year is his HR rate. He’s allowing 1.75 HR per nine innings compared to 1.19 in his career and 1.08 and 0.82 in 2008 and 2009 respectively. His HR/FB rate of 13.6% is also higher than his 11.3% career rate, although he was worse than that in 2005 for Arizona.
In addition to a high HR/RB rate, Vazquez is giving up more fly balls as a percentage of his batted balls against than at any other season in his career prior to 2010 (data only available from 2002). In his career about 40.6% of the batted balls against him have been fly balls, compared to 47.3% this year.
It doesn’t take Binder to tell you that a pitcher who gives up a high number of fly balls and sees more of them going out of the park is not going to be very good.
So if Vazquez has started using a two-seam fastball to get more ground balls (he induced 8 yesterday out of 10 balls in play compared to 4 out of 13 balls in play in his first relief outing), it may mean he can pitch better than he has so far over the rest of the season.
Or it could just be four and two-thirds lucky innings against a team that’s not particularly adept at hitting.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Yankees.com: In rout of A’s, Yanks mar Cahill’s surge
NEW YORK—Robinson Cano and Mark Teixeira belted back-to-back home runs as part of a six-hit showing between the two sluggers, and Marcus Thames added a three-run shot as the Yankees pounded the Athletics, 11-5, on Monday at Yankee Stadium.
New York battered Oakland starter Trevor Cahill in his shortest start of the year, getting to the right-hander for a season-high eight earned runs and nine hits in just four-plus innings, including the consecutive home runs by Teixeira and Cano in the third inning, lined into the right-field seats.
I’d like to thank Trevor Cahill for participating in the AL Cy Young race this year. We have some lovely parting gifts for him.
Teixeira’s first 46 PA: .083/.283/.111, wOBA: .223
Teixeira’s last 525 PA: .276/.383/.530, wOBA: .395
I guess the thumb is ok.
The Yankee announcers have been talking about how Dustin Moseley’s ERA doesn’t reflect how he’s pitched so far. They’re right, although it’s for the wrong reason. Their claim is that he’s pitched better than his ERA.
As a starter, here’s how Moselely’s done so far this year including tonight:
39.1 IP, 42 H, 22 R, 22 ER, 8 HR, 18 BB, 22 K
RA/ERA: 5.03
FIP: 6.25
Component ERA: 5.49
A pitcher who gives up 8 HRs in 39.1 innings while walking 18 and only striking out 22 is not going to keep an ERA below five for very long. The Yankees have gotten some value out of Moseley to this point, and have now won five of his seven starts, but the sooner he’s not starting the games the better off the Yankees will be.
And I really want to believe that Javier Vazquez’s two successful long relief outings mean he’s ready to rejoin the rotation, but at this point I just can’t believe that Vazquez is going to be a useful part of this team.
Athletics (65-64) @ Yankees (80-50), Monday, August 30, 2010, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
OAK: Trevor Cahill (22, RHP, 14-5, 2.43) vs. NYY: Dustin Moseley (28, RHP, 4-2, 4.53)
Is there a better day to be a Yankee fan than Moseley day?
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Updated Monte Carlo Postseason Odds Through August 29, 2010
| Team | W | Div | WC | PO |
| Rays | 99.5 | 52.3% | 43.9% | 96.1% |
| Yankees | 99.3 | 47.2% | 48.3% | 95.5% |
| Rangers | 90.8 | 93.7% | 0.0% | 93.7% |
| Padres | 94.6 | 83.5% | 5.8% | 89.3% |
| Reds | 93.7 | 80.2% | 8.6% | 88.7% |
| Twins | 93.3 | 87.4% | 0.3% | 87.7% |
| Braves | 93.7 | 71.0% | 14.3% | 85.3% |
| Phillies | 90.6 | 27.9% | 28.0% | 56.0% |
| Cardinals | 89.2 | 19.7% | 20.7% | 40.4% |
| Giants | 88.6 | 13.2% | 15.4% | 28.6% |
| White Sox | 87.4 | 11.7% | 0.7% | 12.4% |
| Red Sox | 90.6 | 0.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% |
| Rockies | 84.5 | 2.7% | 3.9% | 6.6% |
| Athletics | 82.3 | 5.7% | 0.0% | 5.7% |
| Marlins | 82.6 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.3% |
| Dodgers | 82.5 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% |
| Tigers | 80.8 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| Mets | 81.9 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Angels | 77.7 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Blue Jays | 83.2 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Brewers | 75.8 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Orioles | 58.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Indians | 67.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Royals | 67.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mariners | 63.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nationals | 69.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cubs | 68.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pirates | 53.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Astros | 73.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Diamondbacks | 65.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
W: Final projected win total (average of 10,000 iterations)
Div: Percentage of time team won their division
WC: Percentage of time team won the wild card
PO: Percentage of time team made the playoffs (Div + WC)
The Rays’ schedule is a bit easier than the Yankees’ going forward, so they may now probably be a very slight favorite to win the East. For all intents and purposes though, it’s a tossup.
The Rays and Yankees are currently the two most likely teams to qualify for the postseason.
Boston’s not dead yet, but they probably should get a priest prepped for administering last rites shortly.
The Rangers, Reds, Padres, Twins and Braves are all pretty big favorites to take their divisions at this point (all over 70%) and the NL wild card race looks like Philly -> St. Louis -> Giants.
Shocking no one, the Orioles, Indians, Royals, Mariners, Nationals, Cubs, Pirates, Astros and Diamondbacks are either mathematically eliminated or have a less than 1 in 10,000 likelihood of making the postseason.
Yankees.com: Bombers win close finale against White Sox
Marcus Thames hit his third homer of the series and Ivan Nova was stellar in his second big league start.
That pretty much sums it up. The Yankee bullpen made things interesting in relief of Nova but pitched 3.1 scoreless innings and the Yanks held on for the 2-1 win and split their six game road trip against Toronto and the White Sox.
Thames has been a critical part for a team that’s gotten a lot of disappointing performances from some of their expected key players. It’s not often that an NRI to spring training ends up being a key contributor all season, but that’s exactly what Thames has been. Just keep him off the field…
Nova looked better today than he did in his first start IMO. The velocity was still impressive, but he seemed to have better command of his curve this time and threw it a bit more.
BrooksBaseball.net PitchFX Tool: Ivan Nova, 8/29/2010
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swinging Strikes / % |
| FA (Fastball) | 94.2 | 97.1 | -4.34 | 8.01 | 63 | 44 / 69.84% | 5 / 7.94% |
| CH (Changeup) | 87.3 | 87.3 | -2.81 | 3.25 | 1 | 1 / 100.00% | 0 / 0.00% |
| CU (Curveball) | 83.0 | 87.1 | 3.09 | -4.32 | 24 | 13 / 54.17% | 3 / 12.50% |
Frankly, at this point I’d rather see Nova starting than anyone except CC or Hughes (at least until Pettitte comes back).
Also of note, Joba Chamberlain hit 100 mph in the eighth inning (and 91 on his slider once).
BrooksBaseball.net PitchFX Tool: Joba Chamberlain, 8/29/2010
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swinging Strikes / % |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 98.1 | 99.6 | -3.85 | 11.87 | 11 | 9 / 81.82% | 0 / 0.00% |
| SL (Slider) | 88.6 | 91.3 | 2.01 | 2.02 | 11 | 7 / 63.64% | 4 / 36.36% |
Fast gun, or is his stuff all the way back?
By winning tonight, the Yankees guaranteed picking up a game on one of Tampa Bay or Boston tonight, unless they can’t get their game in for some reason. I am holding my nose and rooting for Boston tonight.
Yankees (79-50) @ WhiteSox (70-59), Sunday, August 29, 2010, 2:05pm **Game Chatter**
Joined in progress. The Yankees have yet to reach base.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Yankees.com: CC wins 18th as Yanks thump White Sox
The Yankees allowed nine runs for the second straight night, but they were on the winning end the second time around, jumping to an early lead and holding on for a 12-9 victory over the White Sox.
“It was a great team effort,” said Marcus Thames, who hit a pair of long home runs to left field. “Last night, it was ugly from the start. Tonight, we just played baseball.”
Hopefully there’s less ugly tomorrow.
Also, Major League Baseball is investigating New York Yankees pitcher Ivan Nova and a former minor league teammate for allegedly injecting each other with B-12 shots. It’s not a banned substance, but if B-12 keeps pitchers from sucking, they need to get Burnett and Vazquez on some IV drips ASAP.
Yankees (78-50) @ WhiteSox (70-58), Saturday, August 28, 2010, 7:05pm **Game Chatter**
The downward spiral continues…..
Whither A.J.?
Through his first seven starts of 2010, A.J. Burnett had an ERA of 1.99. A closer look at his peripherals over that stretch shows that he wasn’t really pitching quite that well.
| Dates | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wOBA |
| Apr 6-May 4 | 40.7 | 36 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 1 | 3 | 2.43 | 1.99 | 3.18 | 3.19 | .245/.305/.327 | .290 |
So we should have expected a correction, although his peripherals were indicative that he was pitching pretty well, even if he’d had some good fortune to that point. His FIP and CERA(component ERA) show that he should have an ERA in the low 3s instead of one under 2.
A little deeper look into his peripherals over those first seven starts paints a slightly less rosy outlook.
| Dates | BABIP | HR/FB | BB+HBP/BF | K/BF |
| Apr 6-May 4 | .289 | 1.6% | 8.5% | 17.1% |
The BABIP was a bit lower than we probably should have expected, although FIP corrects for that. More alarming was the fact that he’d allowed home runs on just 1.6% of his fly balls. That was an unsustainably low number, particularly given Burnett’s past numbers in that area.
I really wish I had an explanation for what happened since then, because Burnett’s been worse than replacement level.
| Dates | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wOBA |
| May 9-Aug 27 | 110.7 | 130 | 83 | 78 | 52 | 85 | 18 | 11 | 6.75 | 6.34 | 5.49 | 6.10 | .297/.379/.492 | .385 |
Since May 9, Burnett’s got an RA of 6.75 and a FIP of 5.49. The league is hitting close to .300 against him, and his wOBA against of .385 translates to being about 23 runs worse than an average pitcher over 509 batters faced.
| Dates | BABIP | HR/FB | BB+HBP/BF | K/BF |
| May 9-Aug 27 | .327 | 9.5% | 12.4% | 16.7% |
His BABIP and HR/FB corrected, and at the same time his BB/HBP rate increased by about 50%.
In total, his season line looks like this.
| Dates | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | HBP | RA | ERA | FIP | CERA | AVG/OBP/SLG | wOBA |
| Apr 6-Aug 27 | 151.3 | 166 | 94 | 87 | 63 | 113 | 19 | 14 | 5.59 | 5.17 | 4.87 | 5.32 | .284/.361/.450 | .362 |
FIP says Burnett should be a bit better than his overall season line, but still not very good. However, FIP ignores the fact that his HR/FB rate is still probably not all the way back up to where it should be.
| Dates | BABIP | HR/FB | BB+HBP/BF | K/BF |
| Apr 6-Aug 27 | .317 | 7.6% | 11.4% | 16.8% |
There’s really no reason to expect Burnett to pitch better going forward using the 2010 data we have so far. He hasn’t been unlucky in any true sense, and his actual performance in his peripherals is indicative that he’s been just about as bad as his raw RA/ERA say he has.
I try to hammer home the point about current performance not telling us everything about a player, and needing to be cognizant of a player’s past history when trying to project them going forward. However, it’s also important to understand that a significant change in a player’s ability can make their past performance useless in evaluating them going forward. This is especially true for a pitcher, especially one who’s in his 30s. See Cliff Lee as one example, or see David Cone as another. Cone went from an ERA+ of 137 to 70 in one season, albeit at age 37 instead of Burnett’s current age of 33.
We are almost certainly seeing that with Javier Vazquez as well, but in the big picture that won’t hurt the Yankees much in the future since they are only committed to him for 2010. Granted, losing Arodys Vizcaino in the deal could certainly end up looking like a massive mistake going forward, but that’s the risk you take with any trade involving a prospect. Having to flip off the MLB network whenever Pittsburgh highlights are on is a reminder of that.
The Burnett situation is more worrisome than the Vazquez situation, because the Yankees are committed to him for the next three seasons at a salary that should be worth 2-3 wins a year.
A lot of analysts thought the Burnett signing was a mistake, and I was not one of them. The general consensus was that Burnett would pitch pretty well most of the time but would continue to have problems staying healthy which would cut into his value.
However, what’s happening now is actually a far worse scenario. For all the crap Carl Pavano got for his seeming inability to stay healthy as a Yankee, as long as he was not pitching, he was only costing the Yankees money. What Burnett’s doing now is costing them both money AND wins.
I know the easy thing to do here is criticize Burnett’s makeup and think that he’s not pitching well because he’s a “head case”, but I refuse to engage in that thinking or discuss it. Unless you know the guy, you’re pulling crap out of your ass when you starting doing that. I pull enough crap out of my ass when I change the underlying assumptions and components of data to try to make the Yankees look better than they are, so I won’t be trying to do that with Burnett.
I’ll just hope that he can be fixed, because the Yankees need him to be better than this. Not just to make it to the postseason, but to win if they somehow get there.